Tag: world order

Posted on

WORLD IN TRANSITION

 

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

Significant changes are occurring globally across various aspects of society, politics, economics, technology, and the environment. The world is undergoing a period of transformation, where traditional structures, systems, and paradigms are evolving or giving way to new ones.

 

International governance and engagement order and systems are changing.

 

Existing organisations/institutions no longer cater to the interests of all countries.

 

Multilateralism is changing to unilateralism.

 

Regional organisations and alliances are springing up.

 

Bilateral engagements are becoming issue-based.

 

Agreement on some issues and disagreement on others is becoming an acceptable norm.

 

Collective security is still relevant but with some changes.

 

The pandemic has exposed the fault lines in international engagements and highlighted the issue of trust deficit.

 

The pandemic and the ongoing conflicts (Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas) have exposed the lack of resilience in supply chain aspects.

 

Technology is changing the conduct of domestic and international politics by influencing decisions and actions.

 

International engagements are by two main factors, Interests and Ideology. In my opinion, in recent times Interests have become predominant.

 

However, Ideology cannot be ignored. Beyond a particular threshold, ideology-based public opinion would influence the decisions and actions.

 

The flaws in the existing model of globalisation have been exposed. It is excessively centralised, benefitting few and is prone to supply chain disruptions due to natural or man-made situations.

 

Reverse globalisation has begun, with decoupling taking place with centralised centres. There is an opportunity for some to offer alternatives.

 

Most countries are pursuing the policy of self-reliance (Atmanirbharta).

 

Those who are reliant on others and do not have indigenous wherewithal and capability are looking and multiple sources.

 

The dollar as an international trade currency is being challenged. It was challenged earlier also but managed to retain its control. This time it is different as the challenge is from multiple quarters.

 

Several countries are formulating trade arrangements with exchange agreements in local currencies.

 

World power dynamics are changing from Bipolar to Unipolar to now Multipolar, with several power centres growing.

 

China is competing with the USA for the number one position, while the USA is trying to retain its leadership.

 

There is a fear of the Thucydides Trap resulting in conflict between the USA and China, adversely affecting the world.

Cold War 2.0 is starting.

China is converting its economic growth and technological development into military and political power.

 

China is displaying expansionist intent with belligerent and aggressive attitude.

 

The nature of conflict is undergoing a radical change.

 

The line between the state of war and peace is getting blurred. The absence of declared war does not mean no enemy hostile action.

 

Anything and everything is being used as a weapon.

 

New domains of warfare are emerging (Cyber, Space, Information and Electronic).

 

The new methods of conduct of conflict, create man-made disaster situations.

 

The conflict is no longer restricted to the military, the effect can be directly on the general public.

 

Bottom Line

The bottom line is to adapt to these changes and make appropriate changes in foreign and security policies.

 

Question

Are we doing the needful correctly and fast enough?

 

After Thought 

Inspite of decades and centuries of exploitation and ravaging Asia is bouncing back and growing. Coming century belongs to Asia. Provided we do not repeat the history and lose the opportunity by infighting.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

For regular updates, please register here:-

Subscribe

References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

Posted on

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS: TWO-EDGED SWORD

 

 

Sanctions as more than verbal condemnation and less than the use of armed forces.

 – UN general secretary Kofi Annan

 

 

The USA has been using economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool. It has imposed economic sanctions against Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Venezuela, etc.

 

Besides other countries, the sanctions are also used against members of commercial entities and private individuals, as well as non-state actors such as terror groups, etc. affecting their participation in global trade.

 

Nonviolent Coercive Diplomacy. The sanctions in the conflict continuum fall somewhere midway between censure and armed hostilities. Sanctions are frequently used as part of nonviolent coercive diplomacy to coerce targets away from unacceptable behaviour and restrain them from behaving in those ways in the future as well.  This nonviolent nature of sanctions has made them so appealing in international relations and since the end of the cold war, they have grown very popular.

 

Continue reading “ECONOMIC SANCTIONS: TWO-EDGED SWORD”

Posted on

News and Views: China (Salami & Cabbage Strategy)

News:

China is employing the strategy of salami-slicing in the South China Sea, and it limits the options of the peripheral countries by baffling their plans, making it problematic for them to develop a response.

 

Views:

  • Salami slicing, rather than overt aggression, is China’s preferred strategy in a well-planned and methodical manner to gain strategic advantage through a steady progression of small actions.
  • The term ‘salami slicing’ was coined by Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling.
  • It describes a strategy in the military that oversteps boundaries and offers an attractive option for expansionist powers.
  • The basic notion is to gain ground slice by slice rather than all at once.  These slices over a period of time lead cumulatively to a strategic transformation in China’s favour.

 

News:

There has been an incremental expansion of China’s footprint and control in the South China Sea.

 

Views:

  • China has been following the “cabbage strategy”, to take over control over contested islands.
  • This strategy entailed surrounding a contested island with concentric layers of Chinese fishing boats, fishing administration ships, maritime enforcement ships, and warships such that the island is wrapped layer by layer like a cabbage.

 

News:

On March 10, 2023, the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) unanimously elected ‘Xi Jinping’ as the President of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) for an unprecedented third term. President Xi appointed ‘Li Qiang’ as China’s new Premier.

 

Views:

  • The development is as expected.
  • Will Xi be more aggressive or cool down temporarily?
  • My take is that temporary cooling down would be followed by aggressive behaviour towards the end of the third term i.e. 2027-28.

 

News:

President Xi, in his address to the NPC, stressed upon coordinating development and security for building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects. Xi also called for adhering to the one-China principle by resolutely opposing Taiwan’s independence separatist forces.

 

Views:

  • The focus continues to be the pursuit of achieving number one status in the world.
  • Expansionist “One China policy” continues to be followed.
  • Taiwan is the next agenda.
  • Frequency and intensity of “military muscle flexing and strategic coercion exercises”  is increasing.
  • When and how will China achieve it?
  • After Taiwan what next?

 

News:

President Xi proposed “Global Civilization Initiative” calling for respecting the diversity of civilizations, advocating common values of humanity, valuing civilizational inheritance and innovations, and jointly advocating robust international people-to-people exchanges.

 

Views:

  • Announcing China’s big role in world affairs.
  • Big words (respect, common values, humanity, values, and jointly, etc) which China doesn’t care about.

 

News:

On March 5, 2023, Li Keqiang delivered a “Report on The Work of the Government” to the NPC. China targeted GDP growth of around 5 percent for 2023, and announced a defence budget of CNY 1.55 trillion (USD 224.79 billion) for 2023, an increase of 7.2 percent over 2022.

 

Views:

  • China’s figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
  • Will decoupling slow down China’s growth?
  • Military spending is much more than projected.
  • Military modernisation is progressing according to timelines.

 

News:

On March 7, 2023, in his first major foreign policy statement, Foreign Minister Qin Gang highlighted China’s firm opposition to hegemonism and power politics including the US Indo-Pacific Strategy seeking to create an Asia-Pacific version of NATO.

 

Views:

  • Two axes are emerging.
  • Cold War 2.0 coming up.
  • China is crying wolf about QUAD calling it an Asian NATO.

 

News:

President Xi Jinping visited Moscow from March 20-22, 2023. In a joint statement, the two sides stressed “deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries for a new era”.

 

Views:

  • China-Russia relations are a marriage of convenience.
  • China is happy to be the stronger partner in the relationship with Russia.

 

News:

H.H. The Dalai Lama has named a US-born Mongolian boy the ‘10th Khalkha Jetsun Dhampa Rinpoche’ – the third highest rank in Tibetan Buddhism, reigniting the larger question of the 14th Dalai Lama’s own reincarnation. China maintains that it will only recognise Buddhist leaders of its own choosing.

 

Views

  • The entire world is waiting for how things will pan out post-Dalai lama.
  • Tibetan activities would continue from exile.
  • China is carrying out the systemic demographic change in Tibet.

 

News:

Six years after the Doklam standoff, Bhutanese Prime Minister Lotay Tshering’s statement that Beijing has an equal say in finding a resolution to the dispute is troubling for New Delhi. India is opposed to China extending its footprint in Doklam as the plateau lies close to the sensitive Siliguri corridor.

 

Views:

  • China has resolved border issues with all except India and Bhutan.
  • It is offering Bhutan a comprehensive package to resolve issues.
  • The package gives them a back door entry into Bhutan.
  • The older generation in Bhutan is very sceptical about China’s intentions, however, the younger generation is willing to experiment, ignoring the plight of other countries that have engaged with China.

 

Your opinion matters

Please share your views and opinion about the following questions:

  • Will Xi be more aggressive or cool down temporarily?
  • When and how will China take control of Taiwan?
  • After Taiwan what next?
  • Will decoupling slow down China’s growth?
  • Future of Tibet post Dalai Lama?

 

For regular updates, please register here

Subscribe

References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.