Tag: world order

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183: Taliban’s Runover: Some Factors

 

Setting and Population Density Pattern. 

  • Afghanistan’s overall population density is only about 148 people per square mile / 57 people per square kilometer (Indian population density is 1202 per square mile / 464 per square kilometer).

 

  • Even in the populated areas of Afghanistan, people are quite spread out, with only 26 percent of the population living in urban centres. This dispersed population pattern, is a challenge for the state army to defend while, it favours the Taliban’s quick-moving offensive.

 

Taliban Strategy.

  • Following the withdrawal of Western forces, the Taliban swiftly and easily occupied vast swaths of sparsely populated territory. They then used that territory to launch coordinated and fast-moving offensives.

 

  • Instead of traditional tools of warfare (like artillery and armour), the Taliban moved quickly in weaponised pickup trucks to defeat dug-in defensive They forced The Afghan forces to retreat from outposts and checkpoints to (safety of) urban areas, thereby ceding control of supply lines and major highways. This allowed Taliban forces to surround and isolate urban centers.

 

  • Local officials were quick to accept Taliban control because they had little allegiance to the central government and knew that Afghan forces were unwilling (and unable) to defend their areas from Taliban

 

Taliban Advantages.

  • Taliban enjoyed a presence throughout the country, allowing them to pressure the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in multiple locations.

 

  • The Taliban were able to conduct lightning offensives across many fronts, which fatally stressed the limited cohesion of the Afghan National Defense and Security.

 

Afghan Security Force: Challenges

  • Low force-to-space ratios meant that defenders had significant ground to cover and had to move swiftly and in a coordinated fashion to stand any chance of successfully countering Taliban threats from many The Afghan security forces were not geared up to these tasks.

 

  • The Afghan military lacked the capacity and cohesion required to stand firm and defend against fast-moving offensives across many fronts.

 

  • Afghan forces had always been heavily dependent on S. air support for troop movement, re-supply, and combat operations. In absence of the air support, the Afghan military was unable to regroup or move units around quickly.

 

  • Afghan forces were hampered by lack of cohesion, leadership, motivation, and limited training & mobility.

 

Outcome.

  • The weaknesses of the Afghan security forces, combined with the low force-to-space ratios generated by Afghanistan’s terrain and its population distribution, made a quick Taliban victory a reality.

 

  • Taliban rarely had to use force because they could leverage their geographic reach to intimidate local leaders and convince defenders to flee or surrender.

 

Lessons

  • Understanding Local conditions is Important.

 

  • One solution does not work for every problem.

 

  • Psychological (Mind) factor of any armed is important.

 

  • Besides Equipment and training, motivation and leadership is equally important.

 

There is much more to it – More coming up

 

Questions

Has the western world really understood Afghanistan?

Is the fight against terrorism being orchestrated correctly?

 

Titbit

Afghanistan is called graveyard of empires.

Britishers came and failed

Russians tried and failed.

Yanks tried for long and failed.

 

Random Thoughts

Now it is Chinese turn

(Chinese are too smart to burn their hands – they will let Pakistan do Their dirty work)

Pakistan is playing with a two edged sword.

will the nurtured snake bite back

 

Suggestions and Value additions are most welcome

 

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References

https://warontherocks.com/

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/afghanistan-taliban-uk-war-troops-b1902270.html

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-17/why-taliban-won

https://cissm.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/worst-case-scenario-assessing-impact-complete-isaf-military-withdrawal

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-army-collapse-taliban-11628958253

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-taliban-advances-afghan-military-overhauls-war-strategy-limit-losses-2021-07-22/

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-pug

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179: Knowing China Better: sha zhu bang (Kill Pigs List)

 

People fear fame like pigs fear growing fat.

– Chinese saying

 

Most countries have a list of the wealthiest people and it is considered as an honour to feature on the list.

In China, these lists have a colloquial name: sha zhu bang: “kill pigs list.”

In the last fifteen years, China has produced greater overall wealth than any other country. The number of its billionaires has gone from a mere 15 to around 250 in just six years.

But for a number of these people this elevated status is short-lived. Majority of those on the list end up in the court or the jail. Some even get executed.

 

Regulatory Realignment

Over the last year, China has seen a struggle between state regulators and entrepreneurs as the government tries to bring technology companies increasingly in line with the strategic goals of the Chinese Communist Party.

China’s regulators need to discipline their country’s tech companies goes beyond normal concerns to a broader sense, that the companies’ interests aren’t sufficiently lined up with the Chinese Communist Party’s industrial policy or its goal of achieving technological self-sufficiency.

The campaign has continued apace in 2021 with an intensifying series of antitrust crackdowns and data security probes into the major tech firms (by fining for anti-monopoly violations, penalising for price dumping, and app dumping from app stores etc.)

 

XI’s Directives

  • Xi has made it clear what he expects from tech executives. A 2017 directive called for measures to “strengthen the sense of loyalty” among entrepreneurs and to strengthen the authority of the party leadership over them.
  • In July 2020, Xi told entrepreneurs that they should emulate “patriotic entrepreneurs” from Chinese history.
  • Another set of directives released in September 2020 said that “ideological guidance” should be strengthened to “create a core group of private sector leaders who can be relied upon during critical times.”
  • Most recently, Xi presided over a meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs at which officials outlined plans to adjust excessive income and “encourage high-income groups and enterprises to give back to society more.”

 

Voices of dissent

 Alibaba founder Jack Ma gave a speech last October harshly criticizing China’s regulatory system. His speech was like a punch on the face.”

Ma told the assembled members of China’s financial, regulatory, and political establishment that the regulatory system was stifling innovation and needed to be reformed to fuel growth.

 

“Chinese banks, operate with a pawnshop mentality”

“To innovate without risks is to kill innovation,”

“There’s no innovation without risks in the world.”

– Jack Ma

 

In giving the speech, Ma took a big risk for himself. His words were a clear signal to regulators that tech companies would fiercely resist any imposition of red tape on them, no matter how reasonable.

The speech reportedly infuriated the leadership in Beijing and prompted Xi to take drastic actions.

 

Towing the line: Pre-emptive Philanthropy

The tech executives have seen the writing on the wall. Now some of China’s richest entrepreneurs have embraced philanthropy in a bid to stave off unwelcome government attention.

One day after Xi emphasized the virtue of philanthropy, tech conglomerates and China’s rich are pledging billions of yuan towards common prosperity, social, environmental, education and science initiatives.

The sudden outburst of philanthropic activity is part of an effort to court public opinion and polish their reputations before they find themselves in deep trouble.

Some chief executives have even decided to move completely out of the limelight by stepping down from their positions at the top of their companies.

 

Is it Weeding out Corruption?

Arrests and prosecutions like these make one believe that China has begun to take corruption more seriously. However, arbitrary and selective targeting points otherwise.

China’s legal culture thrives on the principle of ‘killing the chicken to scare the monkeys.’ If the Chinese authorities want they can probably find grounds for accusing any one of them for bending or breaking the rules.

 

Is it to Crush the Perceived Potential Competition?

China’s billionaires and tech giants are seen as potential rival centers of power and influence in the country.

The party and the party president feels if not put in place, they can emerge as alternative powers.

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References

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/01/why-do-chinese-billionaires-keep-ending-up-in-prison/272633/

https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/china-takes-on-its-tech-leaders

 

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175: China’s Active Defence Strategy

 

Genesis. China’s Active defence Strategy appeared first time in  MAO’s writings in the year 1936. However, its meaning has been changing from time to time along with the war fighting philosophy of China.

 

Changes in War Fighting Philosophy. War fighting Philosophy of China has changed with the era of person in power. Over the years the changes are as follows:-

 

  • Mao Zedong – Final War (with reference to world wars)
  • Ding Xiaoping – Local War (Shift from world war to limited wars)
  • Jing Zemin – Local war with Hi Technology.
  • Hu Jintao – Informatised Local War (Network centric war)
  • Xi Jinping – Informatised and intelligentised war (Unrestricted War – including elements of hybrid and unconventional warfare even in the Grey Zone).

 

Initial Connotation. When the idea was conceived initially it meant allowing the enemy to come into own territory, in area of own choice and up to pre decide depth. Allow the enemy’s logistics supply lines get stretched out and dry down and at an opportune moment attack and defeat him. It was sort of offensive defence.

 

Present Framework. China articulates its Active Defence response as:

“China would never invade or expand, at the same time would never permit any piece of Chinese territory to separate from China & PLA will strike after enemy has attacked”.

 

Analysis & Implications

  • There is always a gap between what china preaches and practices. China although states that she will not expand, but is driven by the baser instinct of expansionism, considering herself as an empire state rather than nation state.

 

  • China decides as to what is part of China, by staking claims and producing conveniently select and doctored historical and legal documents.

 

  • China has left definition of enemy attack intentionally vague. It is not limited to military attack by kinetic means. It may include any action by the adversary which is against the interest of China.

 

  • In other words China decides what enemy attack is, and reserves the right to respond in a way it feels is appropriate.

 

  • It means China will always have the initiative and will have the legitimacy (in her opinion) for her actions.

 

  • China justifies her approach to this active defence strategy as strategically defensive but operationally offensive.

 

  • In tune with her war fighting philosophy of unrestricted warfare, the attack on enemy would be any domain (land, air, sea, cyber, space, electronic, information, psychological or even nuclear). It could use everything and anything as a weapon from the instruments of national power (DIME).

 

  • This strategy coupled with China’s practiced strategic approach of “achieving objectives without firing a shot”, would mean that China would continue to perpetuate grey zone warfare (inclusive of hybrid and unconventional warfare).

 

  • China’s formation of Strategic Support Force as a separate service, is in tune with the above mentioned strategy and actions.

 

Bottom Line

 There is an urgent need for reorientation and gearing up (not only by military) to deal with these challenges.

 

Question

Are we doing it?

 

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