ISRAEL – HAMAS CONFLICT

 

Had an interesting video conversation with Hriday Raval of Bharat TV on

“Israel – Hamas Conflict”

 

 

Questions answered:-

 

1 How does the current Israeli-Hamas conflict impact regional security and stability?

 

2 Can you provide insights into the military strategies employed by both sides in this ongoing conflict?

 

3 What role do you see for India in mediating or contributing to a peaceful resolution in the region?

 

4 How does the conflict affect India’s own national security interests and defense strategies?

 

5 What are the key challenges in dealing with non-state actors like Hamas on a regional level?

 

6 Are there any lessons from this conflict that could be relevant to India’s defense and counter-terrorism efforts?

 

7 Do you see any potential for the conflict to escalate and involve other regional or global actors?

 

8 What is your assessment of Iran’s involvement in supporting Hamas, and how does it impact regional dynamics?

 

9 Could you provide your perspective on China’s role in the context of the Israeli-Hamas conflict?

 

10 How has the conflict influenced the broader balance of power in the Middle East?

 

11 In your opinion, how does Russia’s involvement in Ukraine impact its stance on the Israeli-Hamas conflict?

 

12 What are the implications of the conflict on India’s defense procurement and partnerships?

 

13 How does the conflict affect India’s broader foreign policy, especially in relation to the Middle East? Can you shed light on India’s engagement with other countries in the region, considering the evolving situation?

 

14 Are there specific air force capabilities or technologies that have gained relevance in light of this conflict?

 

To view, please click on the link below:-

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

 

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

 

WARS: LONG DRAWN AFFAIRS

 

 

Wars can last anywhere from a few days to several decades. A long-drawn war refers to a protracted conflict that extends over an extended period, often lasting for several years or even decades. These wars are characterized by their prolonged duration, continued engagement of military forces, and significant human, economic, and societal costs.

 

The duration of a war can vary significantly depending on various factors such as the nature of the conflict, the parties involved, the goals and objectives of the war, external interventions, and the overall strategy and tactics employed by the warring parties. Several factors can contribute to a war becoming a long-drawn are as follows:-

 

    • Complexity of the Conflict. Wars with intricate causes, multiple stakeholders, and deeply entrenched issues are more likely to drag on. Resolving complex issues takes time and effort. The two world wars would be under this category.

 

    • Geography and Terrain. Wars fought in challenging geographic or climatic conditions can prolong conflict due to logistical difficulties and the strategic advantage it may provide to certain parties. Afghanistan is an ideal example of this aspect.

 

    • Military Balance and Stalemates. When opposing forces are relatively evenly matched, it can result in a stalemate, making it difficult for either side to achieve a decisive victory. History is replete with such examples.

 

    • Guerrilla Warfare and Insurgency. Wars involving guerrilla warfare or insurgencies can be drawn out due to the asymmetrical nature of the conflict and the difficulty in defeating a dispersed, non-conventional enemy. This aspect is becoming a norm with anti-national forces and organisations being supported by the enemy.

 

    • External Support and Intervention. When external powers support opposing factions, it can escalate the conflict and make resolution more challenging, potentially leading to a prolonged war. The Ukraine conflict is a classic example of this factor.

 

    • Economic and Resource Factors. The availability of resources, economic strength, and the ability to sustain a war financially can influence the length of a conflict. This aspect is evident in the recent skirmishes between India and Pakistan.

 

    • Political Will and Negotiation Efforts. The willingness of parties involved to engage in meaningful negotiations and find a peaceful resolution can significantly impact the duration of the war. A lack of political will or unsuccessful negotiation attempts can prolong the conflict. Once again Ukraine war fits into this category.

 

    • Ideological or Religious Motivations. Wars driven by deep-seated ideological or religious beliefs may persist longer due to the fervour and commitment of the involved parties. Historically and even during recent times wars are been driven by Islam versus rest religious ideology.

 

Efforts to end a long-drawn war often involve a combination of military, diplomatic, and humanitarian approaches. These may include peace negotiations, international mediation, sanctions, humanitarian aid, and efforts to address the root causes of the conflict. Reaching a sustainable resolution often requires addressing the underlying grievances and building a framework for long-term peace and stability. Some examples of wars with varying durations are as follows:-

 

    • World War I (1914-1918). Lasted approximately four years, involving many major world powers and resulting in significant loss of life and widespread devastation.

 

    • World War II (1939-1945). Lasted approximately six years, involving a vast number of countries and resulting in immense destruction and loss of life.

 

    • Korean War (1950-1953). Lasted for three years, involving North Korea (with the support of China and the Soviet Union) against South Korea (with support from the United Nations and primarily the United States).

 

    • Vietnam War (1955-1975). Lasted approximately 20 years, with the primary belligerents being North Vietnam (supported by the Soviet Union and China) and South Vietnam (supported by the United States and other anti-communist allies).

 

    • Gulf War (1990-1991). Lasted about a year, involving a coalition of countries, primarily led by the United States, to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.

 

    • Afghanistan War (2001-2021). Initially launched as a response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, this conflict lasted for nearly 20 years before the withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces from Afghanistan in 2021.

 

    • Syrian Civil War (2011-ongoing). This conflict had been ongoing for over a decade, with various factions and external powers involved.

 

It’s essential to note that conflicts are complex, and the durations represent the broad spans of active hostilities. Additionally, some conflicts may continue in different forms even after the cessation of major combat operations.

 

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

 

 

ISRAEL CONFLICT: SPECULATIONS & NEWS Vis-à-vis ANALYSIS & VIEWS

 

(In random order)

 

Speculation: It is a failure of Israeli intelligence.

# Have they intentionally allowed it to happen?

      • To gain legitimacy to crush HAMAS.
      • Reunite Israelis, as fault lines had started appearing in Israel (Since January 2023, large-scale protests have been taking place across Israel in response to the government’s push for a wide-ranging judicial overhaul).

# Doesn’t seem to be true as the human cost is too high.

 

News: A barrage of rockets (more than 2,000 rockets) slammed into southern and central Israel.

# All operations start with LR Vectors to create disruption, destruction, and chaos, followed by attack of surface forces.

 

News: Infiltration initially was through tunnels, powered hang gliders, followed by a land route after the demolition of the fence. Even infiltration was attempted from the sea route.

# These methods would be picked up even by terrorist outfits for sub-con activities.

# Tunnels and drones are already being used by terror groups on the India-Pakistan border.

 

News: Dozens of fighter jets and other aircraft of the IDF targeted 17 military facilities and four operational headquarters of the Hamas terrorist organisation throughout the Gaza Strip.

# Fighter aircraft strikes are still a preferred option in non-contested airspace with no AD weapons.

# Drawing lessons from the Ukraine war, The IDF operations, and the HAMAS actions would take a different turn If countries sympathetic to Palestinians, armed them with shoulder-fired AD weapons.

 

View: Israeli Retaliation will be fierce and ruthless.

# It will cause high levels of casualties and collateral damage. The common man suffers in this cycle of hate.

# The chance of peace coming to the region will diminish further.

 

Speculation: Hamas must be banking on support (financial, military and diplomatic) from the Islamic states (primarily Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf States, and Egypt).

# Hamas does not have the military capability to take on IDF on its own.

# The conflict could spread in some or the other form to other states.

# On one hand the conflict is between the East and the West (eg Ukraine) and on the other hand, on religious divide (Islam vs rest).

# China has a reason to rejoice in either case.

 

Observation: The Hamas attack commenced on the day of the Sabbath.

# Military history is replete with wars commencing on dates when the enemy is likely to be off guard.

# In hostile and tense circumstances, the alertness level needs to be increased on such dates and occasions.

 

Speculation: What would be the response of Arab countries?

# It would be interesting to wait and watch in view of the fact that some of them have improved their relations with Israel recently.

 

Thought: How will it affect the Ukraine war?

# US attention will get divided.

 

Thinking Point: Impact on India and appropriate response.

# Another tightrope walk for India to not join any camp.

# Military supplies from Israel and cooperation would slow down.

# Take off of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEE-EC) would get delayed if not derailed.

 

Comparison: Whose narrative has greater acceptance and credibility?

# Israel is losing credibility due to recent actions leading up to this stage.

# Hamas is losing credibility due to the way they are killing and treating Israeli citizens.

 

View: This was bound to happen as the IDF was killing protesting Palestinian youth over the last few months. Palestinians reached their limits of forbearance.

# It is quite possible, with Palestinians surrounded and boxed in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, with no freedom, no control over basic necessities like food,  water, and electricity, and constant harassment and encroachment.

# Although not advocated, Israel could learn from China the art of keeping the pot boiling, maintaining below a certain threshold, and making gradual gains.

 

Lesson: Role of media is important for influencing opinions.

 

 

Coming up: Detailed Analysis.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

 

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.