war - Air Marshal's Perspective

September 27, 2024September 27, 2024

514: CONFLICTS, MILITARY SPENDING & ARMS TRANSFERS

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) launched its Yearbook 2024 on 17 June. The yearbook contains the annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security.

Summarised excerpts from the yearbook:-

Conflict Trends

Although the number of states experiencing armed conflicts fell from 55 in 2022 to 52 in 2023, the estimated number of conflict-related fatalities worldwide rose from 153,100 in 2022 to 170,700 in 2023, reaching the highest level since 2019.

In 2023, four conflicts were categorised as major armed conflicts (i.e. conflicts involving 10,000 or more conflict related fatalities in the year), one more than in 2022: the civil wars in Myanmar and Sudan, and the Israel–Hamas and Russia–Ukraine wars.

The number of high intensity armed conflicts (i.e. conflicts involving 1000–9999 conflict related fatalities) also increased, from 17 in 2022 to 20 in 2023.

The Russia–Ukraine war continued throughout 2023 at a high cost to both sides. Russian air attacks continued, and Ukraine began to reply in kind, although not on the same scale. Both sides sought and received ammunition and weapons from their allies. There were no formal Russian–Ukrainian peace talks during the year, and the one noteworthy diplomatic success—the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative—unravelled in 2023.

In contrast to the stalemate in Ukraine, in September 2023, Azerbaijan secured a decisive victory in its long running conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.

High intensity armed conflicts continued in Iraq, Syria and Yemen throughout the year.

Israel responded to the events of 7 October (the killing of over 1000 civilians and more than 350 Israeli soldiers and police, and the capture of around 240 hostages) by declaring a state of war for the first time since 1973. By the end of the year, more than 22,000 Palestinians had been killed in the ensuing air strikes or ground operations by Israel. Houthi forces in Yemen, claiming support for the Palestinians, started to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea, prompting Western powers to dispatch warships to the area to address the threat.

SubSaharan Africa remained the region with the most armed conflicts, although many were low intensity conflicts (involving fewer than 1000 conflict-related fatalities), and levels of violence fluctuated considerably. There were decreases in conflict related fatalities in several countries experiencing high intensity armed conflict, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Sudan. However, there were notable increases in conflictrelated fatality rates elsewhere, including in Sudan (+537 per cent compared with 2022), Burkina Faso (+100 per cent) and Somalia (+28 per cent).

The fighting that erupted in Sudan on 15 April 2023 between forces led by rival military generals triggered a humanitarian crisis and resulted in an all-out civil war.

In the Sahel, a coup in Niger and a decision by Mali to expel United Nations peacekeepers added to regional tensions.

The Americas is the only region not to have had a major armed conflict in 2018–23. The two countries in the region with the highest number of conflictrelated fatalities—Brazil and Mexico—primarily faced criminal rather than political violence in 2023. Criminal gang related violence also escalated significantly in Haiti during the year.

Despite the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, the overall conflictrelated fatality rate for Asia and Oceania more than halved between 2021 and 2023. This was partly due to a continuing decline in conflictrelated fatalities in Afghanistan following the return to power of the Taliban in 2021.

Military Spending

Estimated global military expenditure rose for the ninth consecutive year in 2023, surpassing $2.4 trillion, driven by the Russia–Ukraine war and broader geopolitical tensions.

The 6.8 per cent increase in total military spending in 2023 was the largest rise since 2009, pushing estimated world spending to the highest recorded level.

As a result, the global military burden {world military expenditure as a share of world gross domestic product (GDP)} rose to 2.3 percent.

Governments allocated 6.9 per cent of their budgets to the military or $306 per person.

Estimated military spending increased across all five geographical regions for the first time since 2009.

Spending by African countries rose the most (by 22 percent in 2023), while the smallest increase was in the Americas (2.2 percent).

The United States remained by far the largest military spender in the world. Its $916 billion expenditure was more than the combined spending of the nine other countries among the top 10 spenders and 3.1 times as large as that of the second biggest spender, China.

The trend for increased military spending by European states in response to Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine gained traction in 2023. 39 of the 43 countries in Europe increased military spending. The 16 per cent surge in total European expenditures was driven by a 51 per cent rise in Ukrainian spending and a 24 per cent rise in Russian spending, as well as by 10 of the 28 European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reaching or surpassing the 2 per cent of GDP spending target in 2023.

Estimated military expenditures in Asia and Oceania rose for the 34th consecutive year. Half of the regional total consisted of spending by China, which grew by 6.0 per cent to reach $296 billion in 2023. China’s spending influenced spending decisions in neighbouring countries and the broader region: in Japan, for example, spending rose by 11 per cent, the largest year-on-year spending increase since 1972.

Estimated military spending in the Middle East grew by 9.0 per cent in 2023, with increases in all three of the biggest spenders in the region: Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkiye. The Israel–Hamas war was the main driver for the 24 per cent increase in Israel’s military expenditure.

Arms Transfer

Suppliers of Major Arms

In 2019–23, 66 states exported arms, but most were minor exporters. The 25 largest suppliers accounted for 98 per cent of the total volume of exports, and the top five (the United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany) accounted for 75 per cent.

The USA’s share of global exports has increased in recent years while Russia’s share has decreased. In 2019–23, the USA’s arms exports were 17 percent higher than in 2014–18, and its share of the global total increased from 34 to 42 percent. In contrast, Russia’s arms exports decreased by 53 per cent, and its share of the global total dropped from 21 to 11 per cent.

France’s exports rose by 47 percent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, making it the second largest exporter of major arms in 2019–23.

Known plans for future deliveries of major arms strongly indicate that the USA will remain unchallenged as the largest arms exporter in the coming years and that France will consolidate its position in second place. They also indicate that Russia’s arms exports may reduce even further, while some of the other current top 10 exporters are likely to remain steady or increase.

Recipients of Major Arms

In 2019–23, 170 states imported arms. The five largest importers were India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Ukraine, and Pakistan, accounting for 35 percent of total arms imports.

Asia and Oceania received the largest volumes of major arms in 2019–23, accounting for 37 percent of the total, followed by the Middle East (30 percent), Europe (21 percent), the Americas (5.7 percent), and Africa (4.3 percent).

Between 2014–18 and 2019–23, the flow of arms to Europe increased by 94 per cent, while flows to all other geographical regions decreased: Africa (−52 per cent), Asia and Oceania (−12 per cent), the Middle East (−12 per cent) and the Americas (−7.2 per cent).

Many of the 170 importers are directly involved in armed conflict or in tensions with other states where the imported major arms play an important role.

Moreover, many exporters are direct stakeholders or participants in at least some of these conflicts and tensions, which partly explains why they are willing to supply arms, even when the supply seems to contradict their stated arms export policies. It is also noteworthy that, for most suppliers, arms exports are only a small part of the financial value of their total exports.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is an independent, international think tank based in Stockholm that provides research, data, and analysis on arms control, disarmament, military expenditure, and armed conflict. It was founded in 1966 by Alva Myrdal and Tage Erlander. SIPRI’s work is intended to help researchers, policymakers, and the public understand the state of the arms industry and the preconditions for a stable peace.

SIPRI’s work is based on open sources and includes:

Databases. SIPRI’s Arms transfers, Arms industry, and Military expenditure databases provide data on nearly every country in the world.

Documents. SIPRI provides documents on arms embargoes since the 1950s and national reports on arms export controls.

Analysis. SIPRI researchers analyse the data to identify trends and potential impacts on global security.

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May 22, 2024

SHUBHANGI’S COLUMN:”Battle of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set to Challenge US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With Smart Air Combat AI”

Pic Courtesy: Internet

Shubhangi Palve is a Defence & Aerospace journalist currently associated with EurAsian Times. Prior to this role, she worked as a staff writer at ET Prime, focusing on defence strategies and the defence sector from a financial perspective. She has more than 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.

Her article on

“Battle of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set to Challenge US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With Smart Air Combat AI”

was published on 20 May 2024 on “The EurAsian Times”.

(Besides the two quotes, the views of the author are her own)

“Battle of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set to Challenge US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With Smart Air Combat AI”

Picture this: An unmanned combat air squadron launches into hostile skies, guided not by human pilots but by the cold calculus of artificial intelligence. With lightning speed, the AI war manager assesses threats, devises intricate battle plans, and unleashes a blistering onslaught of precision strikes against enemy strongholds. Each manoeuvre executes with machine perfection as the AI mastermind adapts seamlessly to the ever-shifting tides of aerial combat.

But hold on, this isn’t Hollywood fiction…

Welcome to the new age of hybrid airpower!

The Race for AI Supremacy Takes To the Skies

In the high-stakes game of military one-upmanship, a new battlefront has emerged – the fusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) with aerial combat systems.

China claims to have seized a potential edge, developing an “intelligent air combat AI” capable of making split-second tactical decisions and explaining its reasoning to human partners using an intelligent discourse of data visualisations and natural language.

This shatters the long-standing “black box” quandary that has handcuffed militaries – the inability of inscrutable AI systems to articulate the rationale behind their choices. Chinese researchers claim that their ground-breaking AI can engage in intelligent discourse, using words, data visualisations, and charts to illuminate why it issues specific flight instructions.

The Profound implications? An AI co-pilot can forge an unprecedented hybrid of linguistics between the domains of machine logic and human contextual intellect. Moreover, the Chinese team audaciously boasts that this symbiotic melding of abilities can achieve a staggering near-100% win rate in simulated aerial combat scenarios.

Meanwhile, the United States still grapples with the opaqueness of current AI architectures, a situation that underscores the importance of transparency and explainability in AI-driven systems. The US Air Force Secretary recently experienced the limitations of a “still-learning” AI controlling his F-16 flight, and its decision-making processes during potential weapon deployments remain obfuscated.

“Warfare, in general, and air warfare, in particular, is undergoing a dramatic change rapidly due to advanced technologies. Among these technologies, those with the greatest impact include Quantum, AI, Hypersonics, Stealth, Nano, Miniaturization, and Robotics. AI has a big potential for warfare applications,” Air Marshal Anil Khosla (Retd.), Vice Chief of the Air Staff (VCAS) of the Indian Air Force, told the EurAsian Times.

General Dynamics X-62 VISTA US Skyborg

After recently receiving a new look and modifications at the Ogden Air Logistics Complex, the NF-16D, known as VISTA (Variable stability In-flight Test Aircraft), they departed Hill Air Force Base, Utah, on Jan 30, 2019. This aircraft is the only one of its kind in the world and is the flagship of the United States Air Force Test Pilot School. This F-16 has been highly modified, allowing pilots to change the aircraft flight characteristics and stability to mimic that of other aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo by Alex R. Lloyd).

US Armament with AI

In a bold move, the US has embarked on an ambitious endeavour dubbed ‘Replicator,’ designed to rapidly bolster its capabilities in the face of escalating competition, particularly from the People’s Republic of China.

The heart of Replicator lies in swiftly deploying thousands of autonomous systems, harnessing the power of AI, robotics, and cutting-edge technology. With a staggering budget of US$1 billion allocated by the Department of Defence, the Replicator program aims to construct a formidable fleet of compact, weaponised autonomous vehicles.

The Pentagon is abuzz with over 800 active military AI projects, from streamlining processes and evaluating threats to enhancing battlefield decision-making. Notable initiatives include the innovative “Loyal Wingman” program and the deployment of swarm drones like the formidable V-BAT aerial drone.

“The current trend in air combat platforms involves AI-based unmanned aircraft collaborating with manned aircraft, harnessing both advantages. This strategy is dubbed the ‘Loyal Wingman Concept.’ I call it the ‘Mother Goose Concept.’ All sixth-generation platform programs are striving toward this objective,” remarked Air Marshal Anil Khosla.

In a ground-breaking demonstration of its capabilities, the US Naval Forces Central Command’s (NAVCENT) Task Force 59 recently showcased its prowess by executing a successful attack on a simulated enemy target using live rockets, all orchestrated by an unmanned vessel. Experimental submarines, tanks, and ships have already been outfitted with AI capabilities to navigate and engage targets autonomously.

Furthermore, the US military has openly acknowledged its utilisation of AI and machine learning algorithms to identify potential targets for airstrikes in conflict zones such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. These sophisticated algorithms, developed under Project Maven—a collaborative effort between Google and the Pentagon—are carefully supervised by human operators to ensure precision and ethical use in target selection processes.

China’s Investment in AI

While the world closely monitored China’s economic resurgence and geopolitical ambitions, a powerful undercurrent has been gathering force – a concerted national drive to harness artificial intelligence as a potent force multiplier across all war-fighting domains.

Beijing has supercharged investments in robotics, swarming technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning’s myriad militant applications.

Their landmark 2017 “New Generation AI Development Plan” plainly prioritises unmanned combat systems, and other advanced military innovations take centre stage, reflecting China’s strategic prioritisation of AI technologies.

According to a report titled ‘AI Weapons in China’s Military Innovation’ by Global China, Chinese military experts and strategists from institutions like the PLA’s Academy of Military Science, National Defence University, and the National University of Defence Technology foresee a future where AI and intelligent weaponry will assume increasingly pivotal roles, potentially even tipping the scales in future conflicts.

China’s Challenges US

China is now challenging its long-standing US dominance in aerial combat platforms as it surges ahead in investment, research, and development (R&D) across several ground-breaking technologies.

While US technology has evolved and been proven over the years, Chinese advancements are claimed and not demonstrated or proven. Notwithstanding, these claims cannot be taken lightly, according to Anil Khosla.

Furthermore, Anil Khosla emphasises that maintaining a lead in the technological race revolves around the defence market. Securing a foothold in the defence market holds immense appeal for economic and strategic considerations. On the financial front, it serves as a vital revenue stream and contributes to job creation. Strategically, it reduces the dependency of importing nations on external sources.

As this AI arms race intensifies, extending beyond just aviation to permeate all domains of warfare, the nation that unlocks the secret of harmonising machine intelligence with human cognition could seize an extraordinary strategic advantage. The theatre may be the skies, but the stakes could hardly be higher.

Keeping the Atomic Finger off AI Trigger

Back in the Cold War days, all eyes were on the nuclear arms race, a chilling competition that morphed into today’s reality of mass destruction weapon systems on the battlefield.

Fast forward to now, and the numbers are staggering: a whopping 12,500 nuclear warheads, with Russia and the US dominating possession, claiming nearly 90% of this terrifying arsenal.

A recent report from the Arms Control Association reveals the extent of nuclear stockpiles: Russia leads with 5,889 warheads, trailed closely by the US with 5,244, and China with 410.

Moreover, beyond the five permanent Security Council members—US, China, France, Russia, and the UK—other nations recognised under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty as nuclear-capable include Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

In a recent statement, US State Department arms control official Paul Dean underscored the importance of human control over nuclear decisions, emphasising that the US has unequivocally committed to ensuring that only human beings have the authority to deploy nuclear weapons.

This sentiment is echoed by the UK and France, who have pledged to keep nuclear control firmly in human hands, shunning the involvement of AI. Furthermore, the US has urged China and Russia to follow suit, urging them to prioritise human oversight in utilising these potent weapons rather than entrusting such decisions to artificial intelligence.

The AI Conundrum

In conclusion, integrating AI into military systems represents a significant leap forward in modern warfare. As highlighted by Anil Khosla, within novel systems that amalgamate multiple sensors and weapon systems into a unified framework. These systems must sift through vast amounts of data for analysis.

The fusion of AI and quantum computing enables this process to occur rapidly. When combined with miniaturisation, one obtains an optimal system for airborne platforms—small and lightweight yet possessing high computing power and speed. Integrating these technologies would give decision-makers swift decision-making tools, such as decision support systems and ‘what if’ option tools.

However, it is crucial to acknowledge AI’s inherent limitations, particularly in its current state. While AI excels at executing mundane tasks and analysing data patterns, its ability to make nuanced decisions remains questionable. This raises ethical and practical concerns, especially concerning lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs) equipped with AI.

The proliferation of LAWs, empowered by AI, sparks heated debates among experts, touching upon legality, ethics, and the potential for unintended consequences. While AI-enhanced drones may enhance military capabilities, they also introduce new risks and challenges that must be carefully considered.

As we navigate this AI conundrum, it is imperative to approach the integration of AI into military systems with caution and foresight. By striking a balance between technological advancement and ethical considerations, we can harness the potential of AI to enhance military capabilities while mitigating risks and safeguarding human interests. We can responsibly navigate AI’s complexities in modern warfare through thoughtful deliberation and collaboration.

My Comments on the subject:-

1. Warfare in general and air warfare in particular is undergoing a dramatic change rapidly due to advanced technologies.

2. Technologies with maximum effect are Quantum, AI, Hypersonics, Stealth, Nano, Miniaturisation, Robotics, etc.

3. AI has a big potential for warfare applications.

4. Firstly in unmanned autonomous platforms.

5. Unmanned platforms (Drones in airwarfare) are changing the air warfare in a revolutionary manner.

6. Second potential is in new systems which have multiple sensors and weapon systems integrated together. These systems have to analyse a large volume of data. AI and quantum computing combination can do that at a rapid rate. Couple them with miniaturisation and one gets an ideal system for Airborne platform (Small, light, high computing power and high computing speed).

7. The combination of these technologies would would provide the decision makers with quick decision making tools like decision support systems and what if option tools.

8. USA has been dominating the skies with creation of aerial combat platforms with advanced technology.

9. Now China is challenging their monopoly in this field as China is ahead in investment and R&D in some of these path breaking technologies.

10. USA is trying to retain it’s leadership position, while China is trying to catch up or race ahead.

11. USA technology has evolved and proven over the years. Chinese advancements are claimed and not demonstrated or proven. Not withstanding, these claims cannot be taken lightly.

12. Another reason for staying ahead in the technology race is the defence market. Capturing the defence market is highly desirable due to economic reasons (revenue source and job creation) and Strategic reasons (Dependency of importing countries).

13. The current trend in the air combat platforms is for AI based unmanned aircraft to work along with manned aircraft, reaping the benefits of both. It is called “Loyal Wingman Concept”. I call it mother goose Concept. All sixth generation platform programs are working towards it.

14. The trend of air warfare is towards “No contact warfare”, i.e. with long range vectors and unmanned aerial platforms.

15. In future the air wars would be fought by AI based unmanned platforms with smart weapons with minimal human intervention. – Scary thought.

Link to the Article at EurAsian Times:-

Battle Of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set To ‘Challenge’ US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With “Smart Air Combat AI”

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May 2, 2024May 1, 2024

AIRPOWER IN THE INDIAN CONTEXT

Article Published in “Destination India” May 2024

Airpower is a decisive factor and a game-changer in the art of warfare. The application of airpower, although it looks simple is a complex process. During a war, the major roles of airpower include shaping the environment, offensive force application, and synergising operations with surface forces. It also plays a vital role during peace and the transition from peace to war. Airpower in the Indian context has evolved since its genesis, reflecting changes in technology, doctrine, and strategic priorities. Some key aspects of the evolutionary process including the past, present and future are deliberated in the succeeding paragraphs.

Genesis & Early Years. The Indian Air Force was established in British India as an auxiliary air force of the Royal Air Force on 8 Oct 1932, with four Westland Wapiti biplanes and five Indian pilots. The then Royal IAF (RIAF) grew in size during World War II to ten squadrons. In the early years of the IAF, the primary focus was on providing air support to British and Commonwealth ground forces. During World War II, the IAF played a significant role in the Burma campaign in halting the advance of the Japanese army, by providing air cover and support for ground troops. IAF evolved initially in a tactical role primarily to support surface and maritime wars. Indian Air Force (IAF) of independent India came into being with meagre resources of seven squadrons (six fighter squadrons and one transport squadron).

Participation in the Wars. Post-Independence Four wars took place in the first two and half decades. Almost immediately after Independence, India, and Pakistan clashed over the future of Kashmir. IAF carried out air operations including airlift of troops and supplies, photo-reconnaissance, bombing, strafing, and interdiction. The air power usage was tactical and reactionary to the emerging situations. In the 1962 War with China, despite a clear combat edge, the fighter component of the Indian Air Force was not used. There was a general reluctance to use offensive air power due to the perceived fear of escalation of conflict. In the 1965 war with Pakistan, air superiority in specific terms was not contested by either side. IAF gave a good account in the skies and in support of surface forces, to help them stop the Pakistani offensive. In the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, IAF actively engaged the enemy air force achieving complete air superiority over the eastern wing of Pakistan. IAF carried out all air campaigns in parallel, including close air support and air cover to the Indian Army, attacks against Pakistani Air Force bases, assistance to the Indian Navy in maritime operations, offensive attacks on enemy armour, and strategic bombing. IAF played a pivotal role in the victory, leading to the liberation of Bangladesh. Kargil Operations in 1999, demonstrated once again the impact of air power in achieving objectives. Air power was employed in a very innovative way at high altitudes. A game-changer shift took place on 26 February 2019, when India decided to use offensive air power by carrying out deep strikes against terrorist targets in Pakistan, beyond the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The myth about the use of air power being escalatory in nature was broken.

Power Projection Abroad. During 1987-90 IAF was involved with operations in Sri Lanka and Maldives. IAF established an “air bridge” between mainland India and Sri Lanka for the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF). Although combat aircraft were not used, IAF helicopters provided fire support for the army. In 1988, IAF undertook Operation Cactus, wherein, it flew at least a battalion of paratroopers, more than 1000 Miles away to Maldives when rebels attempted to overthrow the government. In these operations, the IAF demonstrated its ability to project forces on short notice.

Growth, Modernisation and Expansion. The decade of the 1950s saw the induction of aircraft and support systems, both in quantity and quality, into the IAF. During this period, the IAF acquired its first jet fighters and transport aircraft and India began to develop its own indigenous aircraft and weapons systems. IAF shifted its focus to defending India’s borders and air space, and its capabilities started developing beyond the limited scope of the support role. In the period from 1980 to 2000, the IAF modernised itself with advanced aircraft, weapons, and sensors, and expanded its capabilities to include strategic airlift.

Current Modernisation. The present decade is witnessing an all-around capability development of IAF with new platforms, weapons and systems. This is being spurred by the combination of rapid capability enhancement and the belligerent attitude of our adversaries. A Multi-pronged approach is being adopted to deal with the current and future challenges. Self-reliance is being encouraged and supported while maintaining the minimum deterrence value, by procurement from abroad. The inventory is also being diversified with inductions from the USA, France and Israel, besides Russia. India has become the largest defence market for the USA with the recent inductions of C-17 aircraft and C-130 transport aircraft, P-8i maritime recce aircraft, Apache attack helicopters, and Chinook heavy lift aircraft, UAVs and weapons. Besides these other two major inductions are the S-400 AD system from Russia and the Rafale fighter aircraft from France.

Strategic Transformation. Originally the IAF had formed purely for the requirements of the British interests of its Empire, its roles and responsibilities were limited to tactical applications of air power. Post-independence also the application of air power continued to remain tactical. It was only in 1971 that the IAF carried out strategic effect-based operations with air campaigns in parallel. In the first decade of this century, the IAF inducted airborne early warning, and aerial refuelling capability leading to an increase in strategic reach along with conventional deterrence. The IAF started transforming from a tactical air power to a strategic one to become a multi-spectrum air force. The capability development is being matched with doctrinal adaptation.

Doctrinal Adaptation. IAF formally formulated and published its first doctrine in 1995. This was the basic doctrine covering characteristics of air power, assets, tasks, and campaigns, the role of technology, combat support operations, force multipliers and the importance of a network-centric environment. The doctrine was reviewed in 2012, and this version went on to establish a connection between airpower and national security. It brought out the greater role of air power in the full spectrum of nation-building, national security, and aerial diplomacy. IT included contribution to sub-conventional operations, the enabling characteristics of air power such as air mobility, helicopter support for Special Forces operations, casualty evacuation, and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) etc. The latest version published in 2022, proposes a larger regional role for IAF, beyond territorial defence. It elucidates a peacetime strategy constituting sovereignty protection, deterrence, air diplomacy, and nation-building, and a No War, No Peace (NWNP) strategy, based on kinetic as well as non-kinetic responses. It advocates the shift from air power to aerospace power and stresses greater space exploitation for the achievement of national objectives. The doctrine also elaborates on multi-domain operations, and the importance of battle-space transparency, combat networking, cyber and information warfare, electronic warfare, techno-logistics, administration and human resource management, and training.

Future Focus / Trajectory

Investment in Technology. Air Force is a technology-intensive service and converting technology into capability is a time-consuming process. To stay on top of the challenges, there is a need to invest in emerging technologies and ideate about their utilisation in warfare. Some of the future technologies that are impacting the air war include Quantum computing, Hypersonic weapon systems, Artificial Intelligence., Robotics, Nanotechnology, Unmanned platforms, Drones and swarm technology, Network-centric environment / Internet of things/system of systems etc.

Unmanned Platforms. The use of unmanned platforms and systems is growing in warfare. This shift is expected to continue as technology advances and the capabilities of unmanned systems improve further. Drones of various sizes and capabilities are taking over the tasks of conventional platforms. Their utilisation is spread across the entire spectrum of threats ranging from sub-conventional, and conventional to long-range attacks. Investment in drones and anti-drone systems is also a need of the hour.

Loyal Wing Man Concept. Both man and unmanned platforms have their respective advantages and disadvantages. The thought process for the next generation of platforms is to harness the advantages of both and develop networked systems, wherein, both can work in an integrated manner. Research is going on in many countries on the “Loyal wingman” concept. HAL in India is also working on the CATS (Combat Air Team System) program on similar lines.

Hypersonic Weapons. The development of hypersonic weapons is likely to have a significant impact on air strategy. Hypersonic weapons provide new opportunities for rapid response and long-range strike capabilities with precision. They also pose new challenges in terms of protection and air defence. The high speed and unpredictability of hypersonic weapons will require the development of new air defence strategies, as traditional air defence systems may be unable to detect or intercept these weapons. This could lead to the development of new technologies, such as directed energy weapons or advanced sensors, to counter the threat posed by hypersonic weapons. Also, protective infrastructure would be required which can withstand the destructive power of these weapons.

New Domains of Warfare. The domains like cyber, space, electronics and information are coming into the influence of warfare. China’s formation of a Joint Strategic Support Force (JSSF) as a separate service, with defensive and offensive capabilities, in above mentioned four domains, indicates future challenges, that require reorientation to deal with them.

Grey Zone Operations. Grey zone operations are operations in the contested arena somewhere between routine statecraft and open warfare. These are becoming a norm in modern-day warfare. Both the adversaries of India are resorting to these operations regularly. Air power besides offensive use can also be effectively utilised in many ways, in non-conventional hostile situations categorised above. Various aspects of grey zone operations need to be deliberated from the point of view of airpower involvement. A certain amount of reorientation would be required in the application of airpower in these grey zone situations supported by capability enhancement in certain fields.

Space-Based Capabilities. The term airpower has changed to aerospace power with the aerial warfare envelope expanding to the domain of space. Space-based systems and applications are embedded in every aspect of aerial warfare. In Grey zone warfare the involvement of space-based equipment and systems is on an even larger scale. Space-based systems are becoming increasingly important in air warfare, providing capabilities such as navigation, targeting, communication, early warning of missile launches and space-based surveillance. The integration of these systems with air assets is expected to continue, providing new opportunities for offensive and defensive operations.

Self-Reliance, Indigenisation and Make in India. Indian Air Force has always encouraged the development of indigenous defence production capability and it is one of its key result areas. It has played an important role in creating an aerospace ecosystem in India and has been operating indigenously built aircraft and also aircraft built in India under licence production. This has given impetus to indigenous industry in the past and will continue to support it in future. The important thing to remember is that while supporting self-reliance the minimum level of deterrence capability needs to be maintained at all times. Also, the balance between quality and quantity needs to be ensured.

The IAF should continue to prioritise modernisation efforts, including the acquisition of advanced aircraft, weapons systems, and sensors. This will enable the IAF to maintain a technological edge over potential adversaries and respond effectively to emerging threats. The IAF should concentrate on new areas of capability development, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), cyber warfare, and space-based systems. These capabilities will enhance its ability to conduct a wide range of operations, from intelligence gathering to precision strikes. The IAF should work closely with the surface forces to develop joint operations capabilities, with emphasis on joint conceptualisation, planning, command and control systems, and integrated training exercises. The IAF should continue to be proactive in its role of providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, both domestically and internationally. Overall, the IAF should strive to maintain a balance between traditional air power capabilities and emerging areas of strategic importance. This will enable the IAF to meet its primary mission of defending India’s air space and national security interests, while also contributing to the broader role of nation-building, regional stability and humanitarian assistance.

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/closing-gap-doctrinal-capability-appraisal-iaf-plaaf/
https://airpowerasia.com/2020/06/15/air-power-transformational-challenges-india/
Aerospace strategy: An idea whose time has come. By Air Mshl D Choudhury, AVSM, VM, VSM (Retd).
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Basic Doctrines of the Indian Air Force 1995, 2012 and 2022.
https://theprint.in/opinion/iaf-doctrine-leverages-air-power-it-also-has-the-first-no-war-no-peace-strategy/1379156/
https://capsindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Bhashyam-Kasturi.pdf
https://55nda.com/blogs/anil-khosla/

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