USA – Air Marshal's Perspective

April 15, 2025April 14, 2025

648: SAINT MARTIN’S ISLAND: A STRATEGIC GEM IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

My article published on the IIRF website

on 14 Apr 25.

Nestled in the northeastern Bay of Bengal, Saint Martin’s Island, known locally as Narikel Jinjira or Daruchini Dwip, is a small coral island spanning just three square kilometers. This unassuming landmass holds outsized geopolitical significance, located approximately nine kilometers south of Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar-Teknaf peninsula and eight kilometers west of Myanmar’s northwest coast. Despite its modest size and population of around 3,700, the island’s strategic location near critical maritime routes and its proximity to the Bangladesh-Myanmar maritime border have drawn the attention of regional and global powers, including the United States, China, India, and others.

Historical Context and Sovereignty

Saint Martin’s Island has a rich history intertwined with regional geopolitics. Millennia ago, it was an extension of the Teknaf peninsula, but rising sea levels submerged parts of the land, creating the island as it exists today. Named after Saint Martin by British colonial authorities in the 19th century, it was previously called Jazira by Arabian merchants who settled there in the 18th century. The island became part of British India in 1900, Pakistan after the 1947 partition, and Bangladesh following its independence in 1971. A 1974 agreement between Bangladesh and Myanmar, later affirmed by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) in 2012, solidified Bangladesh’s sovereignty over the island, despite occasional tensions with Myanmar over maritime boundaries.

The island’s economy is modest, primarily driven by fishing, rice cultivation, coconut farming, and seaweed harvesting. Tourism is gaining traction due to its pristine beaches and coral reefs. However, its strategic value far outweighs its economic contributions, making it a focal point in South Asian geopolitics.

Strategic Location in the Bay of Bengal

Saint Martin’s Island’s location is its most defining asset. Situated near the mouth of the Naf River and close to the maritime boundary between Bangladesh and Myanmar, it lies at the crossroads of vital sea lanes in the Bay of Bengal. The bay is a critical maritime zone connecting the Indian Ocean with Southeast Asia and serving as a gateway to the Indo-Pacific. It hosts some of the world’s busiest shipping routes, including those passing through the Strait of Malacca, a chokepoint for global trade, particularly for energy supplies. Control over Saint Martin’s Island offers a vantage point for monitoring maritime traffic, conducting surveillance, and projecting naval power in this strategically significant region.

The island’s proximity to the Matarbari Deepsea Port, currently under development in Bangladesh with Japanese investment, further amplifies its importance. The port is set to enhance Bangladesh’s role in regional trade, and Saint Martin’s Island could serve as a complementary outpost for securing maritime routes. Additionally, the island falls within Bangladesh’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), granting access to marine resources like fish, oil, and gas, which adds an economic dimension to its strategic value.

Environmental and Economic Significance

Beyond its geopolitical role, Saint Martin’s Island is an ecologically sensitive area. As Bangladesh’s only coral island, it supports diverse marine life, including coral reefs, sea turtles, and various fish species. However, environmental degradation poses a threat—studies estimate that 70% of its coral reefs were lost between 1980 and 2018 due to anthropogenic factors like overfishing and pollution. Conservation efforts are critical to preserving this biodiversity, which also underpins the island’s tourism potential and fishing-based economy.

Tourism is a growing sector, with the island attracting visitors for its natural beauty and cultural heritage. However, a nine-month tourist restriction starting February 1, 2025, has been imposed to address environmental concerns and regional tensions, particularly with Myanmar. The island’s isolation during the rainy season, when rough seas cut off access to the mainland, underscores its vulnerability and strategic significance as a self-contained outpost.

Interests of World Powers

The Bay of Bengal has emerged as a theater of great power competition, and Saint Martin’s Island is a pawn in this geopolitical chessboard. The interests of major powers—particularly the United States, China, and India—stem from the region’s growing importance in global trade and security.

United States. The United States views the Bay of Bengal as a critical component of its Indo-Pacific Strategy, aimed at countering China’s growing influence. Allegations by former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024 suggested that the U.S. sought control over Saint Martin’s Island to establish a military base or airbase, a claim denied by Washington. Such a presence would allow the U.S. to monitor Chinese naval activities, secure shipping lanes, and strengthen its strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific. The island’s proximity to the Strait of Malacca makes it an ideal site for surveillance and power projection. While the U.S. has officially dismissed these claims, the island’s strategic value aligns with its broader objectives, including partnerships like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with India, Japan, and Australia.

China. China’s expanding presence in the Indian Ocean, driven by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has heightened its interest in the Bay of Bengal. Beijing has invested heavily in regional infrastructure, including Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar port and a submarine base near Dhaka. Saint Martin’s Island could be a strategic foothold for China to monitor maritime routes and counter U.S. and Indian influence. Reports of Chinese intelligence facilities on Myanmar’s Coco Island, near the Strait of Malacca, underscore Beijing’s ambitions in the region. Control over Saint Martin’s Island would enhance China’s ability to project power and secure its energy imports, which rely heavily on these sea lanes.

India. As a regional power, India is vested in maintaining influence over the Bay of Bengal, which it considers part of its strategic backyard. Saint Martin’s Island’s proximity to India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a key military outpost, makes it a concern. India is wary of foreign powers—particularly China or the U.S.—establishing a presence on the island, which could undermine its regional dominance. New Delhi has supported Bangladesh’s sovereignty over the island and provided economic and military assistance to counterbalance Chinese influence. Any foreign control over Saint Martin’s Island could serve as a “checkpoint” for India’s maritime activities, heightening tensions.

Other Actors. Myanmar’s proximity to Saint Martin’s Island has led to occasional tensions, including cross-border firing and disputes over maritime boundaries. The ongoing conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, involving the Arakan Army, has spilled over into the island’s waters, raising security concerns for Bangladesh. Japan’s investment in the Matarbari port also reflects its interest in the region’s economic potential, which is indirectly tied to the island’s strategic location.

Geopolitical Tensions and Allegations. Saint Martin’s Island has been at the center of political controversies in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina’s 2024 claims that her ouster was linked to U.S. pressure over the island sparked widespread debate. She alleged that foreign powers sought to lease or control the island, a narrative her son later disputed. These accusations reflect the island’s role as a lightning rod for sovereignty, foreign influence, and regional security discussions.

Conclusion

Saint Martin’s Island may be small, but its strategic location in the Bay of Bengal makes it a coveted prize for world powers. Its proximity to vital maritime routes, economic potential, and environmental significance amplify its importance in a region of great power competition. The United States, China, and India, among others, recognise the island’s value as a potential outpost for surveillance, power projection, and securing trade routes. For Bangladesh, maintaining sovereignty over Saint Martin’s Island is a matter of national pride and a strategic necessity. As geopolitical tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific, this tiny coral gem will likely remain a focal point of intrigue and contestation, underscoring the complex interplay of power, sovereignty, and strategy in the modern world.

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Saint Martin’s Island: A Strategic Gem in the Bay Of Bengal (by Air Marshal Anil Khosla)

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

References:-

Online Research Foundation (ORF), Article: “St. Martin’s Island: A new flashpoint in the Bay of Bengal?” August 21, 2024.

The Financial Express, “St. Martin’s Island: A strategic jewel in the Bay of Bengal – Explained”, August 12, 2024.

India Today, “All about St Martin’s Island, its geopolitical importance amid Bangladesh crisis”, August 11, 2024.

Business Today, “The island that toppled a government: Was Sheikh Hasina ousted over this tiny coral gem in the Bay of Bengal?” August 12, 2024.

ETV Bharat, “Explained | Hasina And The Geostrategic Importance Of St Martin Island In Bangladesh”, August 11, 2024.

Firstpost, “Bangladesh crisis: What could the US gain from acquiring St. Martin’s Island?” August 11, 2024.

The Indian Express, “What is Bangladesh’s St Martin’s Island, under spotlight after Sheikh Hasina’s resignation?”, August 15, 2024.

Moneycontrol, “St Martin’s in Bangladesh: Did this island lead to Sheikh Hasina’s downfall?” August 11, 2024
ABP Live, “St Martin’s Island: Why This Tiny Island In Bangladesh Is Under Spotlight After Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster”, August 11, 2024.

The Business Standard, “Bangladesh strategically vital in Indo-Pacific”, February 28, 2022

Eurasia Review, “Bangladesh’s Balancing Politics with Big Powers in Strategic Bay Of Bengal – OpEd”, December 28, 2021

War on the Rocks, “The Bay of Bengal Could Be the Key to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific”, June 17, 2022

April 5, 2025April 4, 2025

640: NATO’S RELEVANCE IN TODAY’S WORLD ORDER

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was established in 1949 as a direct response to the Soviet threat during the Cold War. Built upon the principle of collective defence, enshrined in Article 5 of its founding treaty, NATO played a pivotal role in maintaining transatlantic security during the second half of the 20th century. However, in the post-Cold War era, NATO’s relevance has been increasingly questioned due to shifting global power dynamics, emerging security threats, and internal divisions among member states. While NATO remains a significant military alliance, its ability to adapt to contemporary security challenges will determine its continued importance in the evolving world order.

The Cold War’s End and the Loss of a Defined Adversary. NATO was created primarily to counter the Soviet Union and its communist bloc. With the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the alliance lost its primary adversary, creating uncertainty about its purpose. The following decades saw NATO struggling to redefine its role as the global security landscape shifted away from Cold War-style confrontations. While NATO expanded its membership and engaged in various global missions, critics argue that the absence of a direct military threat comparable to the Soviet Union has undermined its necessity.

Reduced Military Engagements and Shifting Priorities. In the post-Cold War era, NATO took on out-of-area missions, notably in the Balkans, Afghanistan, and Libya, demonstrating its role in global security. However, its military engagements have become more restrained in recent years. The withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the reluctance of many European nations to involve themselves in conflicts beyond their immediate borders signal a decreasing appetite for large-scale NATO-led interventions. This shift has raised questions about NATO’s continued role as an active military force or whether it is becoming more of a political and diplomatic entity.

Evolving Threats: Cyber Warfare, Terrorism, and Hybrid Conflicts. Modern security threats have evolved beyond conventional military conflicts. Cyber warfare, terrorism, pandemics, and economic crises increasingly define global security concerns. NATO has attempted to adapt by enhancing its cyber defence capabilities and counter-terrorism strategies. However, critics argue that these new threats often require diplomatic, economic, and technological responses rather than purely military solutions, making other organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) more relevant in addressing such challenges.

Multipolarity and the Shift toward Asia. The global power structure is transitioning from a unipolar world dominated by the United States to a multipolar system in which China, Russia, and other regional actors exert significant influence. This shift challenges NATO’s traditional dominance. The rise of China and its increasing military modernisation, alongside new security alliances like AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) and the Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia), suggest that the Indo-Pacific region is becoming a greater priority for NATO’s key member, the United States (Brookings Institution, 2024). As a result, NATO’s Euro-Atlantic focus risks diminishing in importance, particularly as Washington recalibrates its strategic priorities toward the Indo-Pacific.

Divergent Security Interests among NATO Members. NATO members increasingly have divergent security concerns. While Eastern European countries prioritise the threat from Russia, Western European nations emphasise diplomatic solutions and strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, Turkey pursues its regional agenda in the Middle East, often clashing with broader NATO objectives. These competing interests create friction within the alliance and raise doubts about its long-term cohesion.

Burden-Sharing and Defence Spending Disputes. One of NATO’s most persistent internal challenges is burden-sharing. The 2014 NATO Summit set a target for member states to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence, yet as of 2023, only 11 out of 31 members met this goal (The Economist, 2024). The United States, which contributes disproportionately to NATO’s military budget, has repeatedly criticised its European allies for failing to uphold their financial commitments. These disparities fuel tensions and questions about NATO’s sustainability if burden-sharing remains unbalanced.

NATO’s Provocative Expansion. Since 1999, NATO has added 14 former Soviet or Warsaw Pact states to its membership, exacerbating tensions with Russia. Critics argue that NATO’s eastward expansion has contributed to geopolitical conflicts, particularly in Ukraine. Russia perceives NATO’s enlargement as a direct security threat, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine can, in part, be seen as Moscow’s pushback against NATO’s growing footprint in Eastern Europe. While NATO insists on its open-door policy, some analysts caution that continued expansion risks further escalating tensions with Russia without necessarily increasing European security.

The Rise of Alternative Security Frameworks. As NATO grapples with internal divisions, other international alliances emerge as alternative security structures. Organisations like BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) present non-Western frameworks for economic and security cooperation. The European Union (EU) has also pursued greater military autonomy through initiatives like PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation), signalling a potential shift away from US-led security arrangements. If Europe continues to develop independent defence capabilities, NATO’s role as the continent’s primary security guarantor could diminish.

NATO’s Strength: Adaptation and Collective Defence. Despite these challenges, NATO remains the world’s most powerful military alliance, providing collective security and deterrence. Article 5 states that an attack on one member is an attack on all and remains a core pillar of transatlantic security. NATO has also adapted to modern threats by creating rapid response forces, strengthening its cyber defence strategies, and increasing cooperation in hybrid warfare tactics. These adaptations ensure that NATO remains relevant in key areas, even as its global dominance faces competition.

NATO’s Future in an Evolving Global Order. NATO’s relevance in the modern world order is contested. On one hand, the alliance remains a critical security framework for Western democracies, deterring aggression and maintaining transatlantic cohesion. On the other hand, shifting geopolitical priorities, internal divisions, and the rise of alternative security alliances present significant challenges to its continued dominance.

Conclusion. Ultimately, NATO’s future will depend on its ability to adapt to new security threats and navigate internal fractures while remaining a key player in global stability. Whether NATO will evolve to meet the challenges of the 21st century or gradually cede influence to emerging security frameworks remains one of the most pressing questions in contemporary international relations.

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References and credits

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References:-

Andersen, L. R. (2021). The challenges of NATO burden-sharing. Global Affairs, 7(2), 185-202.

BBC News. (2023). NATO expansion: What it means for global security. Retrieved from [URL]

Brookings Institution. (2024). NATO and the rise of China: A strategic outlook.

Chatham House. (2021). The future of NATO: Adapting to a multipolar world.

European Parliament. (2022). The EU and NATO: Cooperation and challenges.

NATO. (2023). Cyber security and hybrid warfare initiatives.

Walt, S. M. (2022). NATO’s role in a changing global order. Foreign Affairs, 101(3), 45–58.

April 2, 2025April 2, 2025

636: PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE IN UKRAINE: SUCCESS OR FAILURE

My Article was published in the News Analytics Journal of Mar 25.

Psychological warfare (psywar) aims to influence perceptions, morale, and decision-making, often targeting adversaries and domestic populations. In the context of the Russia- Ukraine conflict, Russia’s psywar likely seeks to demoralise Ukrainians, fracture their resistance, sow distrust in their leadership, and bolster domestic support within Russia for the war effort. An evaluation of Russia’s psychological warfare (psywar) in Ukraine would need an assessment of its objectives, tactics, and measurable impacts based on available evidence and recent developments. This paper argues that while Russia’s psychological warfare has succeeded in shaping domestic narratives and straining Western unity, it has failed to break Ukrainian resistance or achieve a decisive strategic victory.

Historical Perspective of Russian Psychological Warfare

Russian psychological warfare (psywar) has a rich and intricate history, deeply ingrained in the nation’s strategic culture. From the Tsarist era to modern hybrid warfare, Russia has consistently employed psychological operations to manipulate perception, control narratives, and weaken adversaries. The roots of Russian psywar can be traced back to the early 20th century when the Bolsheviks effectively used propaganda to consolidate power during and after the Russian Revolution. Lenin and Trotsky understood that controlling information was just as crucial as military victories, leading to the institutionalisation of propaganda through organisations like Agitprop, which shaped Soviet political messaging.

During the early Soviet period, psywar techniques were used not only to suppress internal dissent but also to influence communist movements worldwide. The concept of “reflexive control,” developed in Soviet military thought, became a key element of Russian psywar, aiming to manipulate opponents into making decisions that ultimately benefit Russian interests. By the time of World War II, Soviet psychological operations had evolved into large-scale deception campaigns, including the use of maskirovka (military deception) to mislead Nazi Germany. Throughout the Cold War, the Soviet Union refined these methods, launching extensive “Active Measures” under the KGB to manage information and exploit societal divisions in Western nations.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, under Vladimir Putin, revived and modernised its psychological warfare strategies, adapting them to the digital age. The contemporary Russian approach to psywar, often called “information confrontation”, integrates cyber operations, media manipulation, and social engineering to achieve strategic objectives.

Russian Psywar during the Ukraine War

Russian psychological warfare in the context of the Ukraine war has been a multifaceted effort aimed at shaping perceptions both domestically and internationally. The multi-layered strategy integrates military, political, and information operations to shape perceptions, demoralise opponents, and influence global narratives. Psychological warfare has played a central role in Russia’s strategy throughout the Ukraine war, aiming to weaken Ukrainian resistance, shape international perceptions, and manipulate domestic narratives. Russia has employed a mix of cyber operations, information management campaigns, battlefield deception, and psychological intimidation to erode Ukrainian morale and divide Western support.

One of the key elements of Russia’s psychological warfare has been its use of information management. Russian state media and social media bots have employed online platforms with narratives that neo-Nazis run Ukraine to accusations that NATO is using Ukraine as a puppet to attack Russia. These narratives justify the war to the Russian population, confuse Ukrainian citizens, and create divisions within Western democracies by amplifying anti-war and isolationist sentiments. Russian narratives have also sought to exploit war fatigue in Western nations, emphasising that financial and military support for Ukraine is futile, expensive, or escalatory.

One prominent example of Russia’s psychological warfare tactics is the ‘Doppelganger’ campaign initiated in 2022 by the Russian IT firm Social Design Agency (SDA). This operation aimed to undermine support for Ukraine by manipulating public opinion in countries like Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The campaign involved creating news articles that presented a pro-Russian perspective on the conflict and deploying AI-powered bot networks to disseminate these narratives on social media platforms. These bots were programmed to engage with users, spreading Russian narratives and pro-Russian sentiments. The ‘Doppelganger’ campaign demonstrates how Russia uses digital platforms and AI to shape international perceptions and influence public opinion in its favour.

Cyber warfare has also been a critical psychological tool. Russian cyber groups have often launched cyber attacks on Ukrainian government institutions, banks, and critical infrastructure. Beyond disabling systems, these attacks serve a psychological function, creating uncertainty, fear, and the impression that Ukraine’s leadership cannot protect its citizens. Russian cyber efforts extend beyond Ukraine, targeting Western institutions with cyber sabotage to weaken overall support for Kyiv.

All-Out or Restricted Psywar.

While Russia is undeniably engaged in psywar, it may not be pushing it to its fullest potential. A maximalist Russian psywar would have included massive global disinformation by flooding international media and social platforms with tailored narratives to isolate Ukraine diplomatically and erode Western support. It would have shut down Ukraine’s communication networks entirely (e.g., via cyber and electronic warfare) to prevent resistance messaging and sow chaos. Russia would have infiltrated Ukrainian society with agents or digital campaigns to fracture trust in leadership and incite internal dissent. Russia employed these tactics, but not at an all-out scale or intensity.

Russia isn’t indulging in a full-fledged war not because it’s unwilling but because strategy, resources, and context constrain it. The war’s hybrid nature means that psywar is a key component, but it’s subordinated to military and economic priorities rather than unleashed as a standalone juggernaut. Russia seems content with a steady, if not maximal, psychological pressure adequate to grind Ukraine down but not bold enough to gamble on total dominance.

Strategic Restraint or Compulsion. A no-holds-barred psywar could provoke stronger NATO responses, like direct intervention or crippling sanctions beyond the current scope. Putin appears to calibrate efforts to avoid provoking direct NATO intervention strategically (e.g., nuclear rhetoric is loud but not yet acted upon). Escalating psywar abroad might require diverting resources from domestic propaganda, which keeps Putin’s regime intact. A complete external focus could weaken the internal control. A full-fledged psywar demands significant investment in cyberinfrastructure, media saturation, and personnel. Putin may believe conventional military gains suffice to force Ukraine into submission, reducing the need for an all-out psychological blitz.

Success or Failure

Despite relentless Russian strikes, Ukrainian resolve appears mixed. Reports from Kyiv indicate fatigue among civilians and soldiers, with some expressing doubts about a negotiated peace due to distrust in Russia. However, Ukraine’s counteroffensives and continued drone strikes on Russian territory demonstrate resilience and a refusal to capitulate. This suggests Russia has not fully broken Ukrainian will, though exhaustion is a growing factor after three years of war. It has partially succeeded in weakening civilian morale and straining resources but hasn’t achieved a decisive psychological collapse.

Russian psywar has aimed to undermine trust in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government. While Ukraine faces internal challenges, such as ammunition shortages and delayed Western aid, there’s no clear evidence of widespread distrust or collapse in governance. The psychological toll on Ukrainians is undeniable. Studies from 2023-2024 highlight high rates of PTSD, anxiety, and depression exacerbated by displacement and infrastructure attacks. Yet, it hasn’t translated into mass surrender or acceptance of Russian dominance.

Impact on Putin’s Image

While the Western narrative often portrays Putin as weakened by the war in Ukraine, Russia’s psychological warfare has succeeded mainly in projecting him as an even stronger leader, both domestically and among some international audiences.

Russia has effectively presented the Ukraine war as a fight for national survival against the West, rallying both elites and the public behind Putin. The Russian narrative frames the war not as an invasion of Ukraine but as a defensive struggle against NATO and Western aggression. This narrative positions Putin as the leader defending Russian sovereignty and traditions against Western imperialism, liberalism, and decadence. State media constantly refers to the war as the “Great Patriotic War 2.0,” drawing parallels with WWII to reinforce the idea of national struggle. The Kremlin has portrayed Putin as the last stronghold against Western cultural and moral decay. Messaging around traditional values, national pride, and resistance to globalisation strengthens his appeal among conservative Russians and foreign audiences in the Global South. The War has allowed Putin to eliminate political threats, tighten control over society, and silence opposition, reinforcing his image as an unchallenged ruler.

Western leaders expected economic collapse from sanctions, but Russia’s economic resilience has strengthened Putin’s image as a leader who can outmanoeuvre Western pressure. Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia avoided a total economic collapse. Trade was rerouted through China, India, Turkey, and the Middle East, showing Putin’s ability to adapt and counter Western strategies. State propaganda framed sanctions as proof of Russia’s global importance. Putin positioned himself as the leader who could make Russia self-sufficient, reducing its reliance on the West.

Influence on Europe.

Russia’s psychological warfare has significantly influenced Europe’s collective response to the war in Ukraine, exploiting political, economic, and social vulnerabilities to create divisions and slow decision-making. While the European Union (EU) has managed to maintain a generally pro-Ukraine stance, Russian psy ops have repeatedly tested and weakened European cohesion on military aid, sanctions, and strategic policy.

Exploiting Political Divisions in Europe. Russia has effectively deepened political polarisation within and among European nations by amplifying opposing narratives across the political spectrum. Right-wing nationalist movements have been targeted with anti-Ukraine rhetoric, portraying the war as an unnecessary financial burden. Simultaneously, left-wing anti-interventionist factions have been influenced to frame NATO and Western military aid as imperialist warmongering. Additionally, Russian information campaigns have sown doubts about Ukraine’s governance, corruption, and war prospects, eroding the moral justification for sustained European support. For example, pro-Russian political factions in Hungary, Slovakia, and parts of Germany have advocated for diplomatic negotiations with Russia over continued military aid to Ukraine. This has complicated EU-wide decision-making, as unanimous support is often required for major foreign policy measures. Far-right and populist parties in Hungary, Slovakia, and Italy have leveraged Russian-aligned narratives to challenge the EU consensus. Hungary’s Orbán, for instance, has stalled EU sanction packages (e.g., the 13th package in late 2024) by citing “peace” over confrontation, aligning with Kremlin talking points and fracturing policy cohesion.

Weakening European Resolve on Military Aid. Russia has employed psychological pressure to deter European military assistance to Ukraine. Moscow frequently warns that Western arms supplies could escalate the conflict into a direct NATO-Russia war. President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats have had a chilling effect, particularly in Germany, where concerns over escalation delayed the provision of Leopard 2 tanks and later raised hesitations about supplying long-range Taurus missiles. Public opinion has also been a battleground for Russian influence. Moscow-backed media and social media campaigns have exaggerated the economic hardships caused by military aid, fuelling war fatigue. In Germany and France, protests calling for peace talks have been driven by narratives echoing Russian disinformation. In countries like France, polls from early 2025 show that 66% support EU aid to Ukraine, but 78% oppose troop deployment unless it is part of a peace deal. In Germany, scepticism about prolonged support grows amid economic pressures, with some voters echoing Russian claims of “war fatigue” amplified online. These divisions weaken the political will for a unified, robust response.

Economic Warfare and the Energy Weapon. Russia’s historical leverage over Europe’s energy supply has been a key psychological tool. The 2022 energy crisis, exacerbated by Russia’s gas cutoffs, heightened European economic fears. Russian psywar further exaggerated the risks of economic collapse, intensifying divisions within the EU. Under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Hungary has been a prominent example of how Russian energy influence can weaken EU unity. Orbán has repeatedly blocked or diluted Russian oil and gas sanctions, citing economic concerns. Additionally, Russia has cultivated business relationships in Germany, Italy, and Hungary to lobby against stronger sanctions, delaying EU consensus on measures such as price caps on Russian energy exports.

Encouraging Fractures in NATO and the EU. Russia has sought to drive a wedge between Europe and the United States by portraying Washington as manipulating the war for its strategic benefit. This narrative has traction among European leaders who advocate for greater strategic autonomy. French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, has suggested that Europe develop a more independent security framework rather than relying solely on NATO. Russian psyops have also exacerbated differences between Eastern and Western Europe. Poland and the Baltic states have been staunch supporters of Ukraine, pushing for aggressive military aid and sanctions. In contrast, France, Germany, and Italy have sometimes been more hesitant, leading to internal EU friction. Russia amplifies these divisions to slow collective decision-making, delaying much-needed aid to Ukraine.

Conclusion

Russia’s psychological warfare in Ukraine has proven to be a sophisticated and adaptive strategy that not only targets Ukraine’s internal stability but also seeks to fracture the unity of its Western allies. By deploying a combination of information management, cyber-attacks, and strategic political manoeuvres, Russia has managed to unsettle a coherent European response by amplifying divisions, fostering hesitation, and exploiting vulnerabilities. It hasn’t derailed EU support for Ukraine but has slowed and fragmented it.

Russia’s psywar has reinforced Putin’s strongman image by shaping domestic narratives, exploiting Western vulnerabilities, and asserting global influence. While it hasn’t overturned the Western perspective entirely, it has created a parallel reality where Putin’s strength is maintained and enhanced, particularly among Russian and non-Western audiences. Whether this perception holds as the war evolves remains uncertain, but for now, Russia’s psywar has undeniably kept Putin’s strongman myth alive and potent.

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References:-

Thomas, Timothy. 2021. “Russian Military Thought: Concepts of Psychological Operations.” Journal of Slavic Military Studies 34 (1): 1-24.

NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. 2022. “Russia’s Grand Strategy in the Information Space.” Riga: NATO StratCom COE.

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European Council on Foreign Relations. 2022. “The Kremlin’s Playbook: Russia’s Information Operations in Europe.”

Carnegie Europe. 2022. “Why Europe is Struggling to Counter Russian Information Warfare.” Brussels: Carnegie Europe.

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Harding, Luke. 2023. Invasion: Russia’s Bloody War and Ukraine’s Fight for Survival. London: Guardian Faber.

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Brookings Institution. 2023. “The West’s Cognitive Dissonance on Russia: A Strategic Weakness.” Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.