Tag: taiwan

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617: INPUTS FOR QUESTIONNAIRE ON INDIA-TAIWAN RELATIONS

 

1: How important are semiconductors between the India-Taiwan bilateral ties?

    • Taiwan dominates semiconductor manufacturing, and India aspires to initially become self-reliant and a semiconductor hub in the long run.
    • Semiconductor cooperation can be a key element in India-Taiwan’s bilateral relations.
    • Taiwan is home to TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), the world’s leading contract chip manufacturer, and other key semiconductor firms like UMC and MediaTek.
    • Taiwan accounts for over 60% of global semiconductor production, making it indispensable in the global semiconductor supply chain.
    • India strives to become a major semiconductor manufacturing and design player with government initiatives like the Semiconductor Mission and incentives under the PLI (Production-Linked Incentive) scheme.
    • However, India lacks advanced fabrication facilities and relies on imports for its semiconductor needs.
    • Taiwanese firms, including TSMC and UMC, have been in discussions about establishing semiconductor plants in India.
    • India and Taiwan have explored partnerships to set up semiconductor packaging and testing facilities.
    • The most prominent initiative in the past was Foxconn’s joint venture with Vedanta to set up a semiconductor fab in India. However, this project faced setbacks, and Foxconn later withdrew.
    • Taiwan’s MediaTek has R&D operations in India, and more companies are eyeing design and software collaborations.
    • Taiwan faces increasing pressure from China, while India has border tensions with Beijing. Strengthening semiconductor ties helps both nations reduce reliance on China.
    • Amid U.S.-China tech tensions, India is a potential alternative for Taiwan to de-risk its semiconductor supply chains. However, due to pressure from China, Taiwan’s firms may hesitate to invest heavily in India.
    • Semiconductor cooperation offers mutual benefits in economic growth, technological advancement, and strategic realignment.

 

2a: How’s the development of an AI-technology innovation ecosystem linked to semiconductors?

    • This relationship between AI and Semiconductors is symbiotic.
    • Developing an AI-technology innovation ecosystem depends on robust, specialised chips for computation. On the other hand, advances in AI drive semiconductor innovation.
    • AI is revolutionising the semiconductor industry.
    • AI workloads like machine learning (ML), deep learning, and generative AI require enormous computational capacity, which is powered by advanced semiconductor technologies like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs).
    • Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and custom chips (e.g., Google’s TPUs) are optimised for AI workloads, enhancing performance and efficiency.
    • Future AI applications would demand breakthroughs in semiconductor design (Neuromorphic & Quantum Chips), mimicking brain-like processing or leveraging quantum computing.
    • AI-enabled devices (smartphones, IoT, autonomous systems) require power-efficient chips for real-time AI inference.
    • A thriving AI ecosystem requires cutting-edge semiconductor technology, while AI drives semiconductor innovations.
    • Countries investing in AI are also focusing on semiconductor self-sufficiency.
    • To stay competitive, nations aiming to lead in AI must also invest in advanced semiconductor capabilities.

 

2b How’s Taiwan important for Indian AI?

    • Taiwan is Important for Indian AI development, and it can play a critical role in India’s AI ambitions due to its dominance in semiconductor manufacturing, expertise in AI hardware, and potential for technological collaboration.
    • Taiwan is home to TSMC, MediaTek, and other key players; India’s AI growth is closely linked to its semiconductor partnerships with Taiwan.
    • Taiwan’s MediaTek supplies AI-driven smartphone processors, the key to India’s mobile AI market.
    • Taiwan’s semiconductor firms could help India build chip fabrication and packaging infrastructure, supporting India’s AI industry.
    • Taiwan’s expertise in embedded AI, 5G chips, and smart sensors can enhance India’s AI-driven IoT industry.
    • Taiwan has top research institutions (e.g., Academia Sinica, ITRI) specialising in AI-chip co-development, with which India can collaborate.
    • India’s AI Software Strength – India excels in AI/ML software development, while Taiwan specialises in hardware. This complementary relationship can lead to co-innovation in AI applications.
    • Taiwan and India can expand cooperation in AI-powered automation, fintech, and healthcare solutions.
    • India relies on Taiwan for high-end GPUs and AI chips, which are essential for AI supercomputing and cloud AI services.
    • Taiwan is vital for India’s AI ecosystem due to its semiconductor leadership, AI hardware expertise, and potential investment in India’s chip industry.

 

2c  Is ‘AI bias’ one sphere in which India and Taiwan should collaborate? I think AI bias will be used in narrative warfare by China. So, it sounds logical that India will look towards Taiwan for it. That’s why this question.

    • Yes, AI bias is a critical area where India and Taiwan should collaborate, especially considering how China could leverage AI for narrative warfare, disinformation, and ideological control.
    • Given Taiwan’s experience in countering Chinese propaganda and cognitive warfare and India’s strength in AI software development, a partnership between the two could be mutually beneficial.
    • AI models learn from data, and if this data is manipulated, it can shape narratives in ways that serve geopolitical agendas. China has a history of AI-enabled information control.
    • Chinese AI firms develop models that filter, distort, or suppress certain narratives (e.g., Tiananmen Square and Uyghur issues).
    • AI-driven bot networks and deepfakes help China push state-controlled narratives globally.
    • AI-powered language models can spread biased historical or political perspectives on global platforms.
    • Given these threats, India and Taiwan must proactively develop AI systems that resist bias and manipulation to safeguard their information sovereignty.
    • India (with its AI research institutions like IITs, IIITs, and NITI Aayog) and Taiwan (via Academia Sinica, ITRI) can create joint frameworks for identifying and countering AI bias.
    • Instead of relying on U.S. or China-dominated AI models (GPT, ERNIE), India and Taiwan can work on regional AI models trained on neutral or diverse datasets.
    • Taiwan is already a leader in countering Chinese misinformation; India can integrate these capabilities into its AI-driven news verification systems.
    • India and Taiwan should limit dependency on Chinese AI tools, chips, and cloud services to avoid hidden biases and surveillance risks.
    • China can manipulate AI models. India and Taiwan must ensure independent, bias-resistant AI tools.
    • Both countries face Chinese psy-ops through TikTok clones, AI-driven chatbots, and misinformation on global platforms. Collaboration on AI-driven digital hygiene strategies is essential.
    • AI bias is not just a technical issue but a geopolitical weapon. Given China’s advancements in AI-enabled narrative control, India and Taiwan must collaborate to develop AI models that are transparent, unbiased, and resilient to manipulation.

 

3: Do you think Taiwan will determine the QUAD’s Indo-Pacific policy? Do you think Taiwan will be included in QUAD Plus?

    • Taiwan is strategically important for the Indo-Pacific.
    • Its inclusion in QUAD+ or any official QUAD policy is highly sensitive due to geopolitical constraints, primarily the One-China policy followed by QUAD members.
    • However, Taiwan is already a de facto part of the Indo-Pacific security architecture, and its role may increase informally without direct QUAD membership.
    • Taiwan plays a key role in significant aspects of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • India, Japan, and Australia have quietly increased economic, diplomatic, and military engagement with Taiwan.
    • The U.S. openly supports Taiwan’s defence and maintains strong military ties with Taiwan (e.g., arms sales, intelligence-sharing).
    • Joint statements focus on ‘peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait’, a veiled warning to China.
    • This suggests Taiwan is a silent but critical factor in QUAD’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
    • The idea of QUAD+ (expanded QUAD partnerships) includes countries like South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and European allies. Taiwan’s inclusion is politically tricky but possible in indirect ways.
    • QUAD could integrate Taiwan into its semiconductor, AI, and cyber initiatives without direct military ties.
    • Taiwan is already working with the U.S. and Japan on cyber defence against China.
    • QUAD’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) could involve Taiwan in trade and investment deals.
    • Taiwan’s inclusion could provoke Chinese military aggression, making regional stability harder to maintain.
    • India’s stance on Taiwan is cautious but evolving, with no diplomatic recognition (it follows the One-China policy but doesn’t reaffirm it actively), expanding economic & tech ties, and a measured stance on security issues (India doesn’t directly engage on Taiwan’s defence but is watching U.S.-China tensions closely).
    • Taiwan will likely play a more significant role in QUAD’s Indo-Pacific policy, but formal membership in QUAD+ is unlikely in the near future due to China’s geopolitical sensitivities.

 

4. Do you think,  that Taiwanese TSMC’s $100 billion investment in the US has any lessons for India-Taiwan bilateral ties?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) $100 billion investment in the U.S. offers several lessons for India-Taiwan bilateral ties, particularly in the semiconductor sector.

TSMC’s investment in the U.S. is not merely a business move but a strategic decision driven by geopolitical concerns, primarily supply chain resilience and U.S.-China tensions. Similarly, India must recognise the strategic value of deepening semiconductor cooperation with Taiwan, not just as an economic initiative but as a crucial aspect of national security and self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat).

Taiwan seeks to diversify its semiconductor production due to concerns about a potential Chinese invasion. The U.S. has emerged as one alternative, and India could position itself as another. New Delhi can present itself as a stable and growing economy with skilled labour and a commitment to semiconductor self-sufficiency.

The U.S. successfully attracted TSMC by offering massive incentives under the CHIPS Act, including subsidies, tax breaks, and infrastructure support. Under its Semiconductor Mission, India is offering similar incentives, but the challenge is ensuring a competitive ecosystem, covering land acquisition, power supply, and water availability (all crucial for fabs). If India wants Taiwanese firms like TSMC or UMC to invest, it must streamline regulatory processes and enhance the ease of doing business.

 

Please Do Comment.

 

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Pics Courtesy: Internet

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

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504: HELLSCAPE VS DRAGONSCAPE: BATTLE OF AUTONOMOUS MACHINES

 

 

 

My Article published on the Newsanalytics Journal

 

 

China’s rise as a global power is multifaceted, encompassing economic growth, technological advancements, military modernisation, and increasing geopolitical influence. However, in some ways, the Chinese seem to be in a medieval thought process. Their aspirations are guided by the principle that “a strong empire expands and a weaker empire shrinks”. China’s expansionist strategies are driven by securing its national interests, asserting its status as a global power, and reshaping the international order, favouring its long-term strategic goals. These efforts, however, lead to tensions and pushback from other nations, contributing to a complex and often contentious international environment.

 

One China Policy. The “One China Policy” is a cornerstone of diplomatic relations between China and other countries. It asserts that there is only one China, and Taiwan is an inseparable part of it. This policy is crucial to understanding China’s foreign relations, particularly with the United States and other Western countries. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China to be reunited at any cost. Taiwan has developed a distinct identity with a democratic political system, vibrant civil society, and robust economy, differing significantly from mainland China. Taiwan seeks peaceful relations with mainland China but resists unification under the terms proposed by Beijing. Many Taiwanese prefer maintaining the status quo rather than pursuing formal independence or unification. The One China Policy is a sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations. The U.S. acknowledges the One China Policy but maintains ties with Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act (1979), allowing commercial, cultural, and other exchanges. The US is the island’s biggest supplier of arms. In recent years, tensions have escalated due to factors such as the PRC’s military activities near Taiwan, increased U.S. support for Taiwan, and Taiwan’s efforts to gain greater international recognition.

 

Unification Plans. China is increasingly getting ready for the unification of Taiwan. It is reported that Beijing has increased its defence budget in recent years and is the second highest behind the US. China is building its military and nuclear arsenal at a rapid pace. PLA has commissioned over 400 new fighter jets and 20 warships in the last few years and doubled its ballistic and cruise missile inventory. China is also building a fourth amphibious landing craft. Xi has called for China to build a “world-class military” by 2027 when the PLA marks 100 years since its founding. These signs suggest the country is sticking to its ambitions of reuniting the self-ruled island with China “by force if necessary.”

 

Salami Slicing and Cabbage Strategy. China believes in Sun Tzu’s philosophy of subduing the enemy without fighting. It prefers salami-slicing rather than overt aggression, i.e., gaining strategic advantage through a steady progression of small actions. It limits adversaries’ options by baffling their plans and making it problematic for them to develop a response. Beijing will continue to apply military and economic pressure and public messaging and influence activities while promoting long-term cross-strait economic and social integration to induce Taiwan to move toward unification. PLA also uses the “cabbage strategy” to seize control of islands. This strategy involves surrounding and wrapping the island in successive layers of Chinese naval ships, China Coast Guard ships, and fishing boats and cutting off the island from outside support.

 

Grey Zone Activities. Beijing’s recent military and ‘grey-zone’ manoeuvres near Taiwan have raised the spectre of a potential conflict. These actions include repeated war games, simulations, combat training, aerial and sea incursions, and encirclement of the island nation. The Chinese forces have conducted military drills around Taiwan and claim that they can impose and maintain a blockade on an island using different types of drones. At the same time, the warships and submarines prowled the surrounding waters. The Chinese actions prompted the USA to announce its new strategy dubbed “Hellscape.”

 

 

US Hellscape Strategy. The strategy assumes that China, learning from the Russian stalemate in the Ukraine war, will launch a mass drone and missile attack to overwhelm Taiwan with little warning. In this scenario, when the Chinese invasion fleet moves out from its ports to sail towards Taiwan to cross the 100-mile (160-kilometre) wide Taiwan Straits, the US military will flood the waterway with thousands of swarm unmanned underwater and surface vessels, apart from kamikaze drones and loitering munitions. The intention is to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape, making the life of the invading Chinese fleet miserable, to harass, distract, and delay them, creating a barrier and buying crucial time for the U.S. and its allies to respond. The recent Ukrainian strategy inspires this strategy, but the US will use a lot of artificial intelligence and machine learning to detect, identify, and harass the Chinese ships crossing the straits. The US plans to deploy many cheap, unmanned drones across multiple domains—air, sea, and land. The drones are designed to function autonomously, even in environments with limited or disrupted communications, and succeed independently on the battlefield. The idea is to counter China’s advantage of mass (i.e., ships, missiles, and drones) with smarter mass, creating an asymmetric advantage.

 

Replicator Programme. The US has already started to work on its hellscape strategy plan. The US Department of Defense (DoD) has given a billion dollars to a program called “Replicator.” This program will build swarms of thousands of UUVs, USVs, and loitering munitions within the next two years. These cost-effective, dependable drones would be produced close to the battlefield at a fraction of the cost of traditional weapons systems. The targeting data across the theatre is also being integrated through the Assault Breaker II programme of the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

 

 

The strategy of Mass vs Smarter Mass. The United States military strategy often incorporates overwhelming force (mass) and advanced technology, which can create a “hellscape” for adversaries. This approach leverages the U.S.’s technological edge and substantial military resources to achieve rapid and decisive victories in conflicts. In this case, China is no pushover and has comparable technological prowess. The success of their respective strategies would depend on technologically advanced autonomous platforms. It is bound to create an arms race between the two camps. The strategy’s success also relies on the speed of subsequent response by the US and its allies.

 

Ramifications. Taiwan is in a crucial geopolitical location in East Asia, making it a significant point of interest for regional and global powers. The USA’s Hellscape strategy and the Chinese plan to counter it have stimulated a “war of words” with a highly contentious and hostile exchange of rhetoric and aggressive, inflammatory, and vitriolic language. A potential war over Taiwan would indeed be complex and potentially catastrophic, with far-reaching consequences for the involved parties and the world.

 

    • The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is one of the world’s largest and rapidly modernising militaries. A conflict involving China would likely involve advanced weaponry, cyber warfare, and significant military assets. Taiwan has a well-equipped and highly motivated military, with substantial investments in defence technologies and support from allies like the United States. The U.S. has a longstanding commitment to Taiwan’s defence through the Taiwan Relations Act. Any conflict would likely draw in U.S. military forces and other regional allies, escalating the situation.

 

    • Taiwan is a major global technology and manufacturing player, particularly in semiconductors. A conflict could disrupt international supply chains and have severe economic repercussions worldwide. The economies of East Asia are highly interconnected, and a war could destabilise the entire region.

 

    • Both sides will likely engage in cyber warfare, targeting critical infrastructure, communication networks, and financial systems, which could have widespread and long-lasting effects.

 

    • While less likely, any escalation involving nuclear-armed states like the United States and China carries the risk of a nuclear confrontation, which would have devastating consequences.

 

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

  1. Swarajya Staff, “Can China Counter United States’ ‘Hellscape’ Plan When Invading Taiwan?” Swarajya website, 13 Jun 2024.
  1. FP Staff, ”What is the ‘Hellscape’ strategy the US is planning to use on China if it invades Taiwan?” First Post website, 11 Jun 2024.
  1. Keoni Everington, “US plans ‘hellscape’ of drones if China invades Taiwan”, Taiwan News website, 11 Jun 2024.
  1. John Grady, “‘Hellscape’ Swarms Could Be as Cost Effective Taiwan Defense”, USNI News, 02 July 2024.
  1. Joe Saballa, “China ‘on Track’ for Potential Taiwan Invasion by 2027”, The Defence Post website, 22 Mar 2024.
  1. Jesse Johnson, “China on track to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027,” The Japan Times website, 21 March 2024.
  1. Abhinav Singh, “China plans to use drones to blockade Taiwan after the US unveils ‘Hellscape’ strategy”, Wion website, 07 Jul 2024.
  1. Ujjwal Shrotryia, “US Has A Nasty Surprise For China If It Tries To Invade Taiwan — Hellscape”, Swarajya website, 11 Jun 24.

 

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

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291: A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS

ALSO, IT IS PRONE TO THOUSAND OF INTERPRETATIONS

Pic Courtesy: Indian Express

Random Thoughts

  • Well done India – INS Vikrant (Indigenous Aircraft Carrier {IAC-1}, Commissioned.
  • United States –  11,  China – 3,  India, United Kingdom & Italy – 2each,  Russia, France & Spain- 1 each.
  • Important is joining the elite group of nations –  US, Russia, France,  UK, and China – who are capable of designing and constructing aircraft carriers.
  • Are two aircraft carriers adequate?
  • Can we afford a third one?
  • Where would be it on the priority list?
  • Aircraft Carrier or Submarines?

 

Pic Courtesy: Graphic news

Random Thoughts

  • Rapid growth in China’s Shipbuilding capability.
  • Numerically PLAN has overtaken USN.
  • Soon it will be from 3 to 6, for two fleet operations.
  • It is a matter of time before the Chinese fleet ventures into IOR.
  • Convert ANC from iron curtain to steel curtain.
  • Look into the islands on the western seaboard.

 

Pic Courtesy: Visual Capitalist

Random Thoughts

  • India has overtaken the UK and is at the number 5 position now.
  • Predictions are that India would reach number 3 position in the future behind China and USA.
  • Ranking apart the disparity between the value of the economy is very large.
  • Another prediction says in future India will have 20% of the world’s working population.
  • It is predicted that it is the decade or the century of India.
  • There would be many ifs and unpredictable events to deal with.

 

Pic Courtesy: BBC

Random Thoughts

  • In the pictures three things stand out.
    • A corridor in western Ukraine under Russian control.
    • Consolidation of Crimea – land connectivity with control over water and electricity supply lines.
    • Limited access to the sea for Ukraine.
  • Russia seems to have achieved its objectives.
  • Now it is wait and watch to formally end it on its terms.
  • How long will the US-led west keep inciting Ukraine to continue the resistance?
  • Continued fighting is not good for Ukraine, Russia, and Europe in particular and the world in general.
  • Question then arises is WHY?
  • Is the threat to Petro-Dollar or is it the defence industry that is at play ?

 

Pic Courtesy: BBC

Random Thoughts

  • The disparity between the military strength of the two countries is large.
  • At the same time it is not a walkover for China.
  • What should the Taiwan strategy be?
    • Purely defensive, limited offense, or offensive defence?
  • Read an appropriate word to explain it – Porcupine Strategy.
  • In what form will the USA help Taiwan?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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References and credits

Reserve Bank of India.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

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