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546: RUSSIA’S SU-57 OFFER TO INDIA: BALANCING NEEDS AND STRATEGIC INTERESTS

 

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My Article published on the EurasianTimes Website on 04 Dec 24

 

Russia has recently renewed its offer to supply India with fifth-generation SU-57 stealth fighter jets. Russia’s latest pitch emphasises improvements in the Su-57’s stealth, avionics, and combat capabilities, including integrating hypersonic weapons. To make the deal more attractive, Russia has reduced the aircraft’s cost and may accept a unique payment mechanism in Indian rupees. While evaluating the offer alongside other options, India remains cautious due to concerns about production delays, technology reliability, and geopolitical implications.

 

India’s Need for Fifth-generation Fighter Aircraft. India’s need for fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) arises from its evolving security environment, technological aspirations, and the need to modernise its ageing fleet. India faces potential simultaneous conflicts with China and Pakistan. China’s J-20 stealth fighter and Pakistan’s growing air power (with possible Chinese or Turkish support) have created a pressing need for India to counterbalance these developments with comparable technology.​ Many Indian Air Force fighter aircraft, including Jaguar, Mirage 2000s and Mig-29s, will be nearing the end of their operational life, prompting the need for replacements with superior capabilities.​ India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project aims to develop an Indigenous fifth-generation fighter, promoting self-reliance in defence technology. However, this is a long-term project, and interim solutions may be required. Given these factors, India would need to induct the latest technology fighter aircraft. The decision will depend on balancing immediate operational needs with long-term strategic and technological goals.

 

 

Key Features and Capabilities. The Su-57’s airframe is designed with stealth in mind, incorporating features like composite material with an angular design and internal weapon bays. While these features enhance stealth, other fifth-generation aircraft are reportedly considered superior in radar evasion, raising concerns about the Su-57’s ability to operate undetected in highly contested environments. The Su-57 claims state-of-the-art avionics, including AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) Radar, IRST (Infrared Search and Track), and electronic warfare systems, enhancing its survivability and situational awareness. The Su-57 currently relies on AL-41F1 engines, with a planned transition to Izdeliye 30 engines, promising super cruise ability, increased thrust, and thrust vectoring. Despite these advancements, delays in the Izdeliye 30 engine raise questions about the Su-57’s operational readiness, a significant concern for India if it opts for procurement.

 

India-Russia Defence Cooperation. The defence partnership between India and Russia dates back to the early 1960s, with Russia (then the Soviet Union) emerging as India’s primary arms supplier during the Cold War. India and Russia have maintained robust and long-standing defence cooperation over several decades, driven mainly by strategic interests and mutual goals in regional and global security. Russia has been a significant supplier of military aircraft to India, with notable contributions including the MiG-21, MiG-29, and Su-30MKI fighter jets. India and Russia have a history of collaboration on joint military projects.

 

FGFA Program: Joint Fifth-Generation Fighter Development. In 2007, India and Russia embarked on the Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) project, aiming to co-develop a customised version of the Su-57 (then known as the PAK FA). India’s contribution included financial support and the integration of indigenous avionics and systems. However, by 2018, India withdrew from the FGFA program due to issues related to technology transfer and software access, performance, delays and cost overruns, and disagreement over production and financial terms. These factors combined made the FGFA program untenable for India, prompting its decision to withdraw and seek other alternatives, including developing indigenous solutions and considering other foreign aircraft.

 

 

Effect on the AMCA Development. India’s procurement of the Su-57 fighter aircraft could positively and negatively affect the development of its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program. If India procures the Su-57, it could gain valuable insights into the design and technology of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft, including stealth capabilities, advanced avionics, and engine performance. This could accelerate the learning curve for Indian engineers and help improve AMCA’s design.​ On the other hand, procuring Su-57s could divert attention and resources from the AMCA project, as both programs require significant investment and focus. This could delay AMCA’s development as funding and manpower may be reallocated. While the Su-57 might provide a short-term solution, procuring it would reinforce India’s dependency on foreign technology, which contradicts the AMCA’s goal of achieving greater self-reliance in defence technology. It might also delay the domestic innovation necessary to produce the AMCA independently.

                                 

Strategic Autonomy. While the Su-57 procurement could strengthen defence ties with Russia, the conditions imposed in the deal might impact India’s strategic autonomy. These conditions may restrict customising the aircraft according to its specific needs. Moreover, India would remain dependent on Russia for software updates, maintenance, and future upgrades, potentially limiting its strategic flexibility. This could hinder India’s desire for greater control over its air assets, a key reason for pursuing the AMCA program in the first place. ​The decision will depend on balancing the desire for immediate operational capabilities with long-term strategic goals of self-reliance and technological independence.

 

Geopolitical Considerations. Acquiring the Su-57 would reinforce India’s defence partnership with Russia, counterbalancing its growing ties with Western defence suppliers like France (Dassault Rafale) and the U.S. (Lockheed Martin and Boeing). This move could also foster deeper technological collaboration between the two nations. India’s procurement of Russian defence equipment also risks triggering sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

 

Challenges and Concerns. The Su-57 is a high-cost platform with significant acquisition and lifecycle expenses. Cost and affordability will be essential factors in the decision-making process. The claimed performance characteristics would have to be evaluated and compared to other existing platforms, especially with the adversaries. India’s insistence on full technology transfer is critical in defence acquisitions. Russia’s willingness to share key technologies will significantly influence India’s decision-making process, especially given India’s focus on enhancing its domestic defence industry through initiatives like “Make in India.”

 

India’s potential acquisition of the Su-57 is a complex issue with far-reaching implications. It involves technical assessments, strategic considerations, and geopolitical implications. While the Su-57 offers significant capabilities that could bolster India’s air force, unresolved concerns about stealth, engine performance, and technology transfer remain critical barriers. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape, particularly the risk of U.S. sanctions, adds a layer of complexity to the decision. Ultimately, India’s choice will reflect its broader defence strategy, balancing immediate security needs with its long-term vision for technological autonomy and regional influence.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

Link to the article: 

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russias-renewed-su-57-pitch-to-india-is/

 

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References:-

  1. The Diplomat. “Russia Offers India Its Su-57 Stealth Fighter (Again).” The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com. 2024.
  1. India Today. “Russia Offers Su-57 Stealth Fighter to India, But IAF Has Concerns.” India Today, https://www.indiatoday.in. 2024.
  1. Defense News. “Russia’s Su-57 Offers India Another Opportunity to Upgrade its Air Force.” Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com. 2024.
  1. Financial Express. “Russia’s Su-57 Stealth Fighter to India: Here’s Why It May Not Happen Soon.” Financial Express, https://www.financialexpress.com. 2024.
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  1. Jane’s Defence Weekly. “Su-57 Fighter Capabilities and Export Potential.” London, 2022.
  1. The Diplomat. “Evaluating the Su-57 for India.” Tokyo, 2022.
  1. TASS News Agency. “Russia’s Su-57 Export Plans.” Moscow, 2023.
  1. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). India’s Defence Procurement Trends. Stockholm, 2023.

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