Tag: strategic thinking

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US REPORT ON CHINA 2023: UNDERSTANDING CHINA’S STRATEGY

CHINA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY

 

  • The PRC’s national strategy is to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049. The strategy is a determined pursuit of political, social, and military modernity to expand the PRC’s national power, perfect its governance, and revise the international order in support of the PRC’s system of governance and national The PRC views the United States as deploying a whole-of-government effort meant to contain the PRC’s rise, which presents obstacles to its national strategy.

 

  • The PRC characterizes its view of strategic competition in terms of a rivalry among powerful nation states, as well as a clash of opposing ideological systems. PRC leaders believe that structural changes in the international system and a confrontational United States are the root causes of intensifying strategic competition between the PRC and the United States.

 

‒ In March 2023, Xi Jinping told delegates to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference that “Western countries led by the United States have implemented comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development.”

 

  • The PRC’s strategy entails deliberate and determined efforts to amass, improve, and harness the internal and external elements of national power that will place the PRC in a “leading position” in an enduring competition between systems.

 

  • In the 20th Party Congress Political Work Report, the CCP expanded on its calls to prepare for an increasingly turbulent international climate, while reporting it had “enhanced” the PRC’s security on all fronts and “withstood political, economic, ideological, and natural risks, challenges, and trials.”

 

FOREIGN POLICY

 

 

  • The PRC’s foreign policy seeks to build a “community of common destiny” that supports its strategy to realize “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese ” The PRC’s ambition to reshape the international order derives from the objectives of its national strategy and the Party’s political and governing systems.

 

  • Beginning late 2022 Beijing launched a diplomatic ‘charm offensive’ targeting European countries in an apparent effort to improve perceptions of Beijing following years of ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy and COVID isolation.

 

  • In April 2022, Xi Jinping announced the Global Security Initiative (GSI). Echoing the previous year’s rollout of the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Beijing has promoted GSI extensively and attempted to insert GSI language into multilateral forums and documents.

 

  • Russia’s war on Ukraine in February 2022 represented a major, unexpected challenge for the PRC as it sought to react to the largest military conflict in Europe since the end of World War. As Beijing deliberates the scale and scope of materiel commitments to Russia’s war on Ukraine, it probably will seek to balance its strategic partnership with Russia while avoiding reputational or economic costs that could result from its assistance.

 

ECONOMIC POLICY

 

 

  • At the end of 2022, China abruptly reversed its zero-COVID The decision to implement China’s reopening took most by surprise and was probably triggered by country-wide protests against the PRC’s zero-COVID policies, economic pressures, and fiscal difficulties for local governments.

 

  • The 20th Party Congress emphasized the importance of quality growth rather than the speed of growth. General Secretary Xi also highlighted “common prosperity,” more equitable access to basic public services, a better multi-tiered social security system, and cultural and green developments as a few of the PRC’s economic initiatives.

 

  • The PRC’s ongoing military modernization objectives are commensurate with and part of China’s broader national development aspirations.

 

CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI)

 

 

  • The PRC uses BRI to support its strategy of national rejuvenation by seeking to expand global transportation and trade linkages to support its development and deepen its economic integration with nations along its periphery and beyond.

 

  • In 2022, BRI projects saw mixed economic outcomes, experiencing both growth and decline. However, overall spending on BRI projects remained consistent with the previous year and Beijing continued to prioritize public health, digital infrastructure, and green energy.

 

  • Overseas development and security interests under BRI will drive the PRC towards expanding its overseas security relationships and presence to protect those interests.

 

MILITARY-CIVIL FUSION (MCF) DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

 

 

  • The PRC pursues its Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) (军民融合) Development Strategy to “fuse” its security and development strategies into its Integrated National Strategic System and Capabilities in support of China’s national rejuvenation goals.

 

  • The PRC’s MCF strategy includes objectives to develop and acquire advanced dual-use technology for military purposes and deepen reform of the national defense science and technology industries and serves a broader purpose to strengthen all of the PRC’s instruments of national power.

 

  • Since early 2022, the CCP appears to have been deemphasizing the term “Military Civil Fusion” in public, in favor of “integrated national strategic systems and capabilities.”

 

 

COMING UP: DETAILED ANALYSIS WITH INDIAN PERSPECTIVE

 

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

 

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WARS: LONG DRAWN AFFAIRS

 

 

Wars can last anywhere from a few days to several decades. A long-drawn war refers to a protracted conflict that extends over an extended period, often lasting for several years or even decades. These wars are characterized by their prolonged duration, continued engagement of military forces, and significant human, economic, and societal costs.

 

The duration of a war can vary significantly depending on various factors such as the nature of the conflict, the parties involved, the goals and objectives of the war, external interventions, and the overall strategy and tactics employed by the warring parties. Several factors can contribute to a war becoming a long-drawn are as follows:-

 

    • Complexity of the Conflict. Wars with intricate causes, multiple stakeholders, and deeply entrenched issues are more likely to drag on. Resolving complex issues takes time and effort. The two world wars would be under this category.

 

    • Geography and Terrain. Wars fought in challenging geographic or climatic conditions can prolong conflict due to logistical difficulties and the strategic advantage it may provide to certain parties. Afghanistan is an ideal example of this aspect.

 

    • Military Balance and Stalemates. When opposing forces are relatively evenly matched, it can result in a stalemate, making it difficult for either side to achieve a decisive victory. History is replete with such examples.

 

    • Guerrilla Warfare and Insurgency. Wars involving guerrilla warfare or insurgencies can be drawn out due to the asymmetrical nature of the conflict and the difficulty in defeating a dispersed, non-conventional enemy. This aspect is becoming a norm with anti-national forces and organisations being supported by the enemy.

 

    • External Support and Intervention. When external powers support opposing factions, it can escalate the conflict and make resolution more challenging, potentially leading to a prolonged war. The Ukraine conflict is a classic example of this factor.

 

    • Economic and Resource Factors. The availability of resources, economic strength, and the ability to sustain a war financially can influence the length of a conflict. This aspect is evident in the recent skirmishes between India and Pakistan.

 

    • Political Will and Negotiation Efforts. The willingness of parties involved to engage in meaningful negotiations and find a peaceful resolution can significantly impact the duration of the war. A lack of political will or unsuccessful negotiation attempts can prolong the conflict. Once again Ukraine war fits into this category.

 

    • Ideological or Religious Motivations. Wars driven by deep-seated ideological or religious beliefs may persist longer due to the fervour and commitment of the involved parties. Historically and even during recent times wars are been driven by Islam versus rest religious ideology.

 

Efforts to end a long-drawn war often involve a combination of military, diplomatic, and humanitarian approaches. These may include peace negotiations, international mediation, sanctions, humanitarian aid, and efforts to address the root causes of the conflict. Reaching a sustainable resolution often requires addressing the underlying grievances and building a framework for long-term peace and stability. Some examples of wars with varying durations are as follows:-

 

    • World War I (1914-1918). Lasted approximately four years, involving many major world powers and resulting in significant loss of life and widespread devastation.

 

    • World War II (1939-1945). Lasted approximately six years, involving a vast number of countries and resulting in immense destruction and loss of life.

 

    • Korean War (1950-1953). Lasted for three years, involving North Korea (with the support of China and the Soviet Union) against South Korea (with support from the United Nations and primarily the United States).

 

    • Vietnam War (1955-1975). Lasted approximately 20 years, with the primary belligerents being North Vietnam (supported by the Soviet Union and China) and South Vietnam (supported by the United States and other anti-communist allies).

 

    • Gulf War (1990-1991). Lasted about a year, involving a coalition of countries, primarily led by the United States, to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.

 

    • Afghanistan War (2001-2021). Initially launched as a response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, this conflict lasted for nearly 20 years before the withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces from Afghanistan in 2021.

 

    • Syrian Civil War (2011-ongoing). This conflict had been ongoing for over a decade, with various factions and external powers involved.

 

It’s essential to note that conflicts are complex, and the durations represent the broad spans of active hostilities. Additionally, some conflicts may continue in different forms even after the cessation of major combat operations.

 

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Indian Air Force@91

 

This article has been contributed by a colleague of mine Gp Capt Kishore Kumar Khera.  I found him to be totally ops oriented, focused and candid in his approach. 

 

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

In this article, Gp Capt Khera holistically reviews the challenges and capabilities of the IAF.

 

Coming Sunday, the Indian Air Force will be 91 and a perfect time for reflection. With two nuclear-powered neighbours, our current geostrategic environment is precarious as one of them is politically and economically fragile and the other is trying to flex its muscles on our borders. The standoff on northern borders has continued for the last three years with no signs of change. China has modernized its armed forces in the last three decades and reorganized them for better integration in 2016. Qualitatively and quantitatively, India can’t match Chinese military hardware. The only way forward for India is to use its resources in a focused manner to achieve its well-defined strategic goals. Lessons from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war are very relevant in our context.

 

The challenges the Indian Air Force faces today relate not only to the situation on borders but also in terms of equipment and organisation.

 

The number of combat aircraft, the cutting-edge tools in a battle, is receding fast. Against an authorization of over 1000 combat aircraft, the Indian armed forces now are in the region of 600. This number will keep reducing and by 2030 is expected to go down to 450 with the phase-out of MiG-21, MiG-29, Jaguars and Mirage-2000. The induction of 36 Rafale and the very slow induction of LCA are only slowing down the force drawdown and cannot reverse it. The IAF needs to prepare for the next war with this realistic combat fleet strength. On the other hand, the induction of 56 new C295 transport aircraft replacing vintage Avro will boost the single wave airlift capability and offset the phase-out of Il-76 and An-32 fleets. In the helicopters, the capability will gradually increase with indigenous ALH and LCH. Unmanned systems are also gradually increasing and will share the workload of manned aircraft, especially in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, ground and maritime attack roles. New and more capable radars, surface-to-air weapon systems and integrated networks are replacing the old systems giving a robust defensive capability. Will these be enough?

 

Recent and ongoing wars indicate the expansion of battlespace, the significance of battlespace transparency, time compression for action and offence-defence balance tilting in favour of offence. Military operation plans are based on two significant verticals- capability differential and information differential between the competing sides. A classical information matrix about the opposing force includes intent, strategy, military doctrine, and military objectives, Besides the overall direction that military strategy gives, an operational plan and its execution are based on an information matrix to achieve defined objectives with the least cost or in the minimum possible timeframe. IAF with its new doctrine IAP2000-22 endeavours to capture the essence of these changes and plans to transform itself into a smart force rather than a strong force. However, the equipment profile does not yet support the creation of a smart force. The number of AWACS, in-flight refuelers, and long-range weapons are rather limited. And in the surveillance and space domains, the resources are meagre. This poses a great challenge for the men and women in blues.

 

Organizationally, the integration of three wings of the Indian armed forces is likely to pick up pace in the coming years. With dwindling combat aircraft strength and meagre force multipliers, resource allocation and utilization for various theatres will define how successful the integration model is. Will there be a holistic approach for the utilization of resources or will India fritter away its limited combat resources to appease various theater commanders?

 

Public sector monopoly in defence has not yielded the desired results for the last seven decades. India has the dubious distinction of being the largest importer of military hardware in the last five decades. Atamnirbhar from being a rhetoric is gradually taking shape with orders being placed on Indian enterprises and a policy of earmarking part of the capital budget for Indian entities. Productivity and quality control of the public sector enterprises are yet to reach the requisite standards. The extremely low rate of production of LCA till now is a case in point. Along with this, the absence of technology and capabilities like aero engines, air-launched weapons, and electronic warfare systems remains critical. Opening up the defence sector for private entities, allowing DRDO to share available testing facilities and technology, and creating defence manufacturing corridors are steps in the right direction but not adequate at this juncture. MOUs with various foreign vendors have been signed but will these lead to requisite technology transfer, only time will tell. The impetus to R&D in these segments is imperative.

 

Indian Air Force needs to be ready with its limited assets and deter war. If it fails to deter then IAF will have to augment its limited resources with courage, ingenuity and smart resource employment to outwit the adversary.  There are no runners up in war.

 

About The Author

Gp Capt Kishore Kumar Khera (Retd) VM

 

Group Captain Kishore Kumar Khera, served as a fighter pilot in the Indian Air Force for 33 years. He is an alumnus of the National Defence Academy and Defence Services Staff College. He has served in Plans and Operational Branches at Air Headquarters as well as in the High Commission of India, Dhaka, Bangladesh. He is a pioneer member of the Composite Battle Response and Analysis (COBRA) Group and headed the Operational Planning and Assessment Group at Air Headquarters. He conceptualised, designed and deployed multiple tools and processes for efficient and effective operational planning and execution. He was a Research Fellow at the Military Affairs Centre in the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. He is the author of the must-read book “Combat Aviation Flight Path”.

 

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