Tag: military spending

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GLOBAL MILITARY SPENDING: Trends & Catalysts

 

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), has published data on global military spending for the year 2023. The Gist of it is as follows.

 

Total global military expenditure reached $2443 billion in 2023, an increase of 6.8 per cent in real terms from 2022. This is the steepest increase since 2009.

 

The top three largest spenders in 2023 are the United States, China and Russia. Particularly large increases were recorded in Europe, Asia, Oceania and the Middle East.

 

Four catalysts that encouraged military spending are:-

    • Russia’s war against Ukraine (supported by the USA, Europe and NATO).
    • China’s military rise and belligerent attitude.
    • Israel’s war against HAMAS and Iran.
    • Organised crimes.

 

Russia Ukraine War

 

Russia. Russia’s military spending increased by 24 per cent to an estimated $109 billion in 2023, marking a 57 per cent rise since 2014. In 2023 Russia’s military spending made up 16 per cent of total government spending and its military burden (military spending as a share of gross domestic product, GDP) was 5.9 per cent.

 

Ukraine. Ukraine was the eighth largest spender in 2023, after a spending surge of 51 per cent to reach $64.8 billion. This gave Ukraine a military burden of 37 per cent, representing 58 per cent of total government spending. Ukraine’s military spending in 2023 was 59 per cent of that of Russia’s. However, Ukraine received at least $35 billion in military aid during the year, including $25.4 billion from the USA. Combined, this aid and Ukraine’s military spending were equivalent to about 91 per cent of Russian spending.

 

USA & NATO. The USA remains NATO’s major spender but European members increased their share In 2023 the 31 NATO members accounted for $1341 billion, equal to 55 per cent of the world’s military expenditure. In 2023 most European NATO members increased their military expenditure. Their combined share of the NATO total was 28 per cent, the highest in a decade. Military spending by the USA rose by 2.3 per cent to reach $916 billion in 2023, representing 68 per cent of total NATO military spending.

 

China’s Rise & Belligerent Attitude

 

China. China, the world’s second-largest military spender, allocated an estimated $296 billion to the military in 2023, an increase of 6.0 per cent from 2022. This was the 29th consecutive year-on-year rise in China’s military expenditure. China accounted for half of total military spending across the Asia and Oceania region.

 

Japan & Taiwan. Japan allocated $50.2 billion to its military in 2023, which was 11 per cent more than in 2022. Taiwan’s military expenditure also grew by 11 per cent in 2023, reaching $16.6 billion.

 

India. India was the fourth largest military spender globally in 2023. At $83.6 billion, its military expenditure was 4.2 per cent higher than in 2022.

 

Israel & Hamas / Iran War

 

Middle East. Estimated military expenditure in the Middle East increased by 9.0 per cent to $200 billion in 2023. This was the highest annual growth rate in the region seen in the past decade.

 

Israel. Israel’s military spending—the second largest in the region after Saudi Arabia—grew by 24 per cent to reach $27.5 billion in 2023.

 

Iran. Iran was the fourth largest military spender in the Middle East in 2023 with $10.3 billion. According to available data, the share of military spending allocated to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps grew from 27 per cent to 37 per cent between 2019 and 2023.

 

Organised Crime

 

Central America and the Caribbean. Military spending in Central America and the Caribbean in 2023 was 54 per cent higher than in 2014. Escalating crime levels have led to the increased use of military forces against criminal gangs in several countries in the sub-region.

 

Dominican Republic.  Military spending by the Dominican Republic rose by 14 per cent in 2023 in response to worsening gang violence in neighbouring Haiti. The Dominican Republic’s military spending has risen steeply since 2021 when the assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse threw Haiti into crisis.

 

Mexico. In Mexico, military expenditure reached $11.8 billion in 2023, a 55 per cent increase from 2014 (but a 1.5 per cent decrease from 2022). Allocations to the Guardia Nacional (National Guard)—a militarised force used to curb criminal activity—rose from 0.7 per cent of Mexico’s total military expenditure in 2019, when the force was created, to 11 per cent in 2023.

 

The largest percentage increase in military spending by any country in 2023 was seen in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (+105 per cent), where there has been protracted conflict between the government and non-state armed groups. South Sudan recorded the second largest percentage increase (+78 per cent) amid internal violence and spillover from the Sudanese civil war.

 

Comments

 

The unprecedented rise in military spending is attributed to the global deterioration in peace and security.

 

Russia’s increase in military spending is the cost associated with the digestion of Crimea in 2014 and Ukrainian regions now.

 

Ukraian’s spending (a high amount of 58% of total govt spending) is difficult to sustain without foreign aid. Further, it will need money for the reconstruction of the country.

 

Two years of war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the security outlook in European NATO states. The change in threat perception is reflected in growing shares of their GDP being directed towards military spending.

 

China is directing much of its growing military budget to boost the combat readiness of the People’s Liberation Army. This has prompted the governments of Japan, Taiwan and others to significantly build up their military capabilities. China’s growing military power is driving up the expenditure of its neighbours and threatened states.

 

War and tensions in the Middle East have fuelled the biggest spending increase of the past decade. The spending has increased mainly driven by Israel’s large-scale offensive in Gaza in response to the attack on southern Israel by Hamas in October 2023.

 

In recent years, diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab countries have been warming up. The outbreak of a major war in Gaza has created fears of a region-wide conflict.

 

Military action against organised crime to suppress gang violence has been a growing trend. It also pushes up spending, as the governments are unable to address the problem using conventional means.

 

 

Bottom Line

Ultimately the common man suffers the ills of war.

Moreover, this money could be used constructively for development and improvement of quality of life.

 

Points to Ponder

The defence industry is the ultimate gainer.

Are they encouraging the unrest?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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NEWS AND VIEWS (INTERNATIONAL)

 

NEWS-1 (ISRAEL HAMAS WAR)

Israel’s military said it had resumed combat against Hamas in Gaza on Friday after accusing the Palestinian militant group of violating a seven-day temporary truce by firing toward Israeli territory.

 

VIEWS

  • The seven-day pause, which began on Nov. 24 and was extended twice.
  • The terms of the cease-fire were in favour of Hamas. It gives some respite to the Israeli government from both domestic (to bring back the hostages safely at the earliest) and international (to regulate the extent of force and to allow humanitarian aid) pressure.
  • The cease-fire facilitated the entry of humanitarian aid into the shattered coastal strip. But deliveries of food, water, medical supplies, and fuel remain far below what is needed.
  • 105 Israeli hostages held in Gaza were exchanged for 240 Palestinian prisoners.
  • Qatar and Egypt have been making intensive efforts to extend the truce.
  • Israel has sworn to annihilate Hamas, which rules Gaza, in response to the Hamas attack on 07 Oct. Israel is preparing to turn the focus of its operation to southern Gaza after its seven-week assault to the north.
  • The cease-fire to some extent has reduced the chances of the escalation of the conflict.
  • Military force is not a permanent solution to the complex problem.
  • The two-nation theory needs to be implemented earnestly.

 

NEWS-2: RUSSIA UKRAINE WAR

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu chaired a roundtable meeting with military officials in Moscow on November 21, 2023. He said that Russian troops are advancing on all fronts in Ukraine. They are occupying and expanding their zones of control.

It was announced that Russia has taken control of Khromove, a small village on the outskirts of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

 

VIEWS

  • The war started in Feb 2022. The intensity has been varying.
  • In 2023 the frontline has barely shifted. Both sides keep claiming success.
  • The latest major flashpoint is the war-battered industrial town of Avdiivka.
  • It is likely to be a long-drawn affair. Both sides are adamant and gradually weakening themselves.
  • Israel Israel-Hamas war has taken the spotlight away from it.

 

 

NEWS-3: EUROPE’S DEFENCE SPENDING

 

The Annual Conference of the European Defence Agency (EDA) took place in Belgium in hybrid mode on 30 Nov 23.

Defence companies, militaries and EU chiefs all agreed that Europe is sorely lacking, especially in what is available to support Ukraine.

Many participants pointed to issues from financing to interoperability to research and development.

 

VIEWS

  • Europe is ploughing billions into its defence industry, with record sums being spent since Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine.
  • Military spending in the European Union has hit a record 270 billion euros ($295 billion) this year.
  • Moscow has announced a massive 68 per cent hike in its military spending for 2024 (almost a third of all of Russia’s government outlays).
  • The EU’s 27 member states spend on average 1.5 per cent of their country’s economic output. NATO’s target is two per cent for its members (22 of which are also EU member states).
  • The United States, in contrast, spends 3.5 per cent of its already higher GDP on defence.
  • Out of all this, maximum gainers are the Defence and arms industry.
  • Collective security is valid, and interoperability is very important.

 

NEWS-4: SPACE WARFARE IN KOREAN PENINSULA

A SpaceX Falcon 9 carrying Seoul’s first domestically made reconnaissance satellite launched from the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California at 10:19 a.m today (01 Dec 23).

Seoul’s satellite is set to orbit between 400 and 600 kilometer above the earth and is capable of detecting an object as small as “30 centimetres” (11.8 inches), according to the Yonhap news agency.

 

VIEWS

  • Two weeks back, North Korea had successfully put its own spy satellite into orbit. This launch of the “Malligyong-1” was Pyongyang’s third attempt at putting such a satellite in orbit, after two failures in May and August.
  • Seoul plans to launch four additional spy satellites by the end of 2025 to bolster its reconnaissance capacity over the North.
  • Until now, South Korea relied heavily on US-run spy satellites.
  • While the South has “succeeded in the launch of a military communications satellite, it has taken much longer for a reconnaissance satellite due to higher technological hurdles.
  • Maybe it is the beginning of space race in the Korean peninsula.
  • Space warfare (a natural extension of air warfare) is the new domain of warfare.

 

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

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MILITARY SPENDING: FACTS, TRENDS & ANALYSIS

Pic courtesy: military mortgage center

SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.

SIPRI Yearbook 2021 has been published and it presents a combination of original data in areas such as world military expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, nuclear forces, armed conflicts and multilateral peace operations.

Relevant extracts on military expenditure are given below:-

 

World Military Expenditure

 

The growth in total spending in 2020 was largely influenced by expenditure patterns in the United States and China.

 

World military expenditure is estimated to have been US$1981 billion in 2020. Total spending was 2.6 per cent higher than in 2019 and 9.3 per cent higher than in 2011.

 

Military spending increased in at least four of the world’s five regions is :-
• 5.1 per cent in Africa
• 4.0 per cent in Europe
• 3.9 per cent in the Americas
• 2.5 per cent in Asia and Oceania.

 

Impact of Covid-19

 

While the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on military spending will become clearer in the coming years, general observations about its impact are as follows:-

 

  • Several countries are known to have reduced or diverted military spending to address the pandemic.

 

  • The military burden in a majority of states increased in 2020.

 

  • Most countries used military assets, especially personnel, to support their responses to the outbreak of Covid-19.

 

The Largest Military Spenders in 2020

 

The USA increased its military spending for the third straight year to reach $778 billion in 2020, a 4.4 per cent increase since 2019 but a 10 per cent decrease since 2011.

 

China’s military expenditure is estimated at $252 billion in 2020, representing an increase of 1.9 per cent since 2019 and 76 per cent since 2011. Chinese spending has risen for 26 consecutive years. It is the longest streak of uninterrupted increases by any country in the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.

 

India’s spending of $72.9 billion, an increase of 2.1 per cent in 2020, ranked it as the third highest spender in the world.

 

Russia’s total military spending was $61.7 billion. This was 2.5 per cent higher than in 2019, but 6.6 per cent lower than the initial budget for 2020.

 

The fifth biggest spender, the United Kingdom, raised its military expenditure by 2.9 per cent in 2020. This was the UK’s second highest annual growth rate in the period 2011–20, a decade that until 2017 was characterized by military spending cuts.

 

Main Exporters and Importers

 

Observations and Analysis

 

  • USA and China are the major influencers in military spending.

 

  • USA continues to be highest spender (way ahead of others including China), trying to retain its most powerful status.

 

  • China’s expenditure figure is 1/3rd of USA, but China could be spending more than it declares.

 

  • The trend of China’s expenditure (Continuous rise in its spending for last 26 years) shows her resolve to enhance her military power.

 

  • USA and China expenditure patterns indicate a beginning of second cold war.

 

  • Covid pandemic has reduced military expenditure in most of the countries.

 

  • India’s amount on military expenditure is although third highest in the world, but is 1/3rd of that of China and 1/10th of that of USA.

 

  • Russia although is trying to regain its lost glory but spending less on military, apparently due to financial constraints and development priorities.

 

  • Arms export is led by USA with major chunk of 37% export market.

 

  • Russia still has a foothold in the military export market with number two position with reasonable figure of 20%.

 

  • China figures in the both the lists of import and export at number 5 position with approximately 5% in both. However it is trying to capture more and more of world military market share.

 

  • India continues to maintain the dubious record of being at number two place in the defence imports list, behind Saudi Arabia.

 

Bottom Line

India cannot match China in defence expenditure.

 

Question

Will India be able to break its dependence on military imports?

 

Wild Thought

Maybe the unrest world over is sponsored by the arms industry.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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