The Russian attack on Ukraine has put India in a spot. New Delhi is facing demands from the West and Ukraine to condemn Russia while needing to preserve its changing, but still vital, relationship with Moscow.
Tight Rope Walk
India has good relations with both Russia and the US and siding with one of these countries could cost India its relationship with the other. India has to maintain its neutrality.
India along with China & UAE abstained when a resolution opposing the military Russian operation against Ukraine came up for a vote at the UN Security Council (UNSC).
Various reasons have been given for this decision. The fact remains India is not in a position to any sides. Ukraine is not happy with the Indian stand but even Ukraine has not supported India in the past.
Russia and USA have expressed that they understand the Indian stand probably due to their commercial interests in keeping India engaged.
Geo-Political Effects
This Crisis will strengthen the Russia – China relations.
Russia is already averse to the Indo-Pacific concept and the Quad as a revival of Cold War bloc politics and views them as being against its Asia-Pacific interests. This conflict will strengthen Russian opposition to these concepts and forums.
The two blocs i.e. eastern and western would take a more prominent shape. The tight rope walk for India will become more difficult.
Effect on Defence Deals
Russia has been a traditional military supplier sharing platforms and technologies that others wouldn’t. Russian hardware still accounts for approximately 60 – 70 per cent of India’s defence equipment, especially with respect to fighter jets, tanks, helicopters and submarines among others, while several major deals are in the pipeline. India requires a functioning supply chain relationship with Russia and Ukraine for spares and support, which is critical for its military.
Ukraine also plays a vital role as a supplier to India’s military, providing crucial subsystems for Russian systems.
With tensions escalating between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis, India, which has major defence cooperation with Moscow and also with Kyiv, faces uncertainty over timely deliveries.
Air Force
Ukraine and India were engaged in the process to upgrade the Indian Air Force’s fleet of over 100 Antonov An-32 transport aircraft. The Antonov upgrade programme was briefly disrupted by the conflict in Crimea in 2014.
After the Balakot air strike in 2019, the IAF made an emergency procurement of R-27 air-to-air missiles for its SU-30MKI fighters. At Aero India in February 2021, Ukraine signed four agreements, which includes the sale of new weapons as well as maintenance and the upgrade of the existing ones in service.
Delivery of the Russian S-400 AD Missile system is underway and India is expecting a waiver of U.S. sanctions on this. This conflict will complicate both the delivery of the system and the possibility of the US waiver.
Navy
The Indian Navy’s relationship with Ukraine is from the time of the USSR for dependence on ships and equipment. Ukraine’s Zorya Mashproekt supplies the crucial Marine gas turbine engines to the Indian Navy. Around 30 ships of the Indian Navy use these gas turbines. These ships include Veer class missile boats, Rajput class destroyers, Visakhapatnam class destroyers and frigates of the Russian-designed Admiral Grigorovich class.
Gas turbines are complicated systems and warships are designed around their engines. These engines are designed for specific features and cannot be replaced easily. Even some of the spare parts for the overhaul of these engines come from Ukraine. More spares would be required once the existing stock finishes. The conflict in Ukraine could lead to several complications for spares and new construction, including exorbitant costs for even simpler components and small parts.
In addition, Russia is manufacturing two stealth frigates for the Navy. They are to be delivered next year onwards, while another two are being manufactured by the Goa Shipyard Limited under technology transfer.
(Similar situation was faced when USSR broke up. Everything points towards need for being self-reliant in defence production).
Evacuation of Indians
India has a lot of students studying medicine in Ukraine. India is making effort to get them out.
Air India has been flying special flights to evacuate the stranded Indian students. Four ministers are being sent to neighbouring countries to coordinate and facilitate the evacuation. Even the Indian Air force has been asked to join in the effort.
(India has always been proactive in evacuating its citizens from problem areas. Indian Air Force has been at the forefront in this effort)
Over advertising of the evacuations creates a problem. The impression generated is that India’s only concern is to get Indians back. Further, it creates a problem for the diaspora abroad. Although the Indian flag on vehicles going towards border areas in Ukraine is being respected, however, some reports have emerged that Ukrainians are creating problems for them. This may be due to the feeling that India is not helping Ukraine.
(Similar impression was generated during the Nepal earthquake crisis. Most of the missions were for taking relief material to Nepal. Since aircraft were coming back empty, Indians wanting to return were accommodated. However, over highlighting of the evacuations created the impression that aircraft were being sent primarily for the evacuation of Indians).
Effect on Indian Students
Thousands of students from India study medicine in Ukraine. The reasons are:
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- Degree costs a fraction of what it does in India.
- Paucity of seats in India.
- Global acceptance of MBBS degree from Ukraine.
- Opportunities in India on return.
Future of these students would be uncertain. Some of them would have already paid a large sum of money.
Effect on IT Industry
Though Indian IT companies don’t have large operations in Ukraine, they have big centres in Eastern European countries such as Hungary, Romania, Poland and the Czech Republic.
According to research firm ISG, about 50,000 tech workers and 200,000-odd technology freelancers in Ukraine could be affected by the crisis, and in turn, affect operations of tech companies around the world.
Disruptions due to cyber-attacks is another possibility.
The banning of mobile apps would be another factor to be considered.
As the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, India’s IT and business process management industry has to wait and watch.
Energy
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions will contribute to high oil and natural gas prices in the coming months. Global energy prices skyrocketed just hours after news broke of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This will adversely impact the economy of major oil-consuming countries like India.
Question
What is the best way forward for India?
Suggestions and value additions are most welcome
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References and credits
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