Tag: geopolitics

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South China Sea: Some Aspects related to SCS Disputes

 

 

The SCS dispute took root in pre-colonial era and has changed form in the colonial times, decolonization period, Cold War era, and then in more recent times.

 

Over the years, the dispute has become more complicated by the competing and overlapping claims of several littoral states and involvement and interest of other members of the international community.

 

Several efforts have been made by regional and global players to resolve the issue bilaterally and / or multilaterally.

 

China Factor

 

China uses folklore, myths and legends as well as distorted history to support its territorial and maritime claims in the SCS.

 

China’s territorial and sovereignty claims have a high degree of ambiguity. Under this umbrella of ambiguity China has been using different methods to pursue its objectives in the SCS following strategy of increased assertiveness while delaying resolution to bid time.

 

China has been engaging littoral states in bilateral negotiations and holding dialogue with ASEAN but with no breakthrough. At the same time Beijing is increasing its presence in the SCS through naval exercises and physical installations, such as land reclamations and building artificial islands.

 

China is following its tactics of salami slicing in SCS as well, i.e. making gains without resorting to direct military engagement or confrontation.

 

Other Claimants

 

Other claimant states besides China are Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. Indonesia is also getting sucked into the dispute.

 

The claims and stance by these claimant states depends upon factors like identity crisis (Taiwan), rising China and individual political and economic ties with China.

 

ASEAN

 

ASEAN has been involved in the conflict management with China to find an amicable solution.

 

So far ASEAN has been unable to achieve an amicable agreement. Possible reasons are China’s insistence on a bilateral solution and competing claims among claimant states.

 

July 2016 Arbitration

 

Status quo on the SCS has not changed significantly after the July 2016 Arbitration, and is not likely to bring any significant change in the near future.

 

China ignores the arbitral ruling and continues to maintain its intransigence behaviour with no intention to fulfil its international obligation.

 

Other Players

 

There are other regional and global players, which are not direct claimants in the SCS dispute but are involved.

 

Like any other security issue the international community is divided on the question of the SCS disputes. While some countries support one of the sides, others remain neutral.

 

USA. Role of US is important for the dispute and the region, because it is the only power that is capable of standing up to and counterbalancing the increasing assertiveness of China. US maintains that it does not support the sovereignty claim of any particular state while demanding freedom of navigation and over flight in international waters.

 

QUAD. The US concern is shared by some of the countries such as Australia, Japan and India giving rise to Quad, which has the potential to bring stability in the region. While the Quad demands peaceful resolution of the SCS dispute and respect for international law, it still remains a dialogue forum rather than a security alliance.

 

Coming UP: Solving SCS Disputes

 

Comments and value additions are most welcome

For regular updates please register here –

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References:

  1. https://scroll.in/article/968918/how-did-the-south-china-sea-dispute-begin-and-where-is-it-headed
  2. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53397673
  3. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/issues/south-china-sea
  4. https://www.peacepalacelibrary.nl/library-special/south-china-sea-territorial-disputes/
  5. https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/south-china-sea-dispute
  6. https://www.straight.com/news/khalid-zaka-a-summary-of-south-china-sea-conflict

  7. The Politics of South China Sea Disputes, book by Nehginpao Kipgen

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South China Sea: Importance and Disputes

 

South China Sea.

 

The South China Sea is a semi-enclosed area measuring 3.6 million square kilometer in the Pacific Ocean.

 

It spreads from Straits of Malacca and Karimata to Taiwan straits and is bordered in the north by China and Taiwan, the Philippines in the east, Brunei and Malaysia in the south, and Vietnam in the west.

 

It contains numerous islands, rocks and reefs. Major ones being Spartley islands, Paracel islands, Pratas and Natuna islands and the Scarborough shoal.

 

SCS: Importance

 

The area is believed to contain rich reserves of oil, natural gas, minerals and fishery stocks.

 

The region is considered to be a centre of future economic growth in East Asia and is also sometimes called a “second Persian Gulf”.

 

Major sea routes of shipping pass through this area.

 

The strategic location and the abundant resources make it a subject of interest and concern for littoral states and the international community.

 

SCS: Disputes

 

The security issues around it always remain in focus and it is considered to be one of the flashpoints.

 

The South China Sea disputes are regarded as one of the most complex and challenging ocean-related maritime disputes in East Asia, involving both islands and maritime claims among sovereign states.

 

The underlying problem is the claim of overlapping areas by different countries, involving China, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan. They all claim that they own the sovereignty of the islands or islets, reefs and / or resources.

 

The traditional high seas freedoms of navigation and over flights are also at stake in the dynamics of SCS, making the issue even more complex with involvement of extra regional and other major powers including United States.

 

Due to the number of claimants and the complexity of claims, it is   called the “mother of all territorial disputes”.

 

China is by far the biggest country in the region and claims sovereignty over almost all the South China Sea. The region has become a flashpoint for tensions between China and other nations which claim sovereignty over two largely uninhabited island chains, the Paracels and the Spratlys. China claims the largest portion of territory, saying its rights go back to centuries.

 

SCS Disputes: Recent Status

 

Recently it has become the locus of disputes that have the potential of escalating into serious international conflicts. Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) have been on the rise. This is mainly for China’s continued assertive actions and for the sharp deterioration in US-China relations over China’s massive territorial claims in the SCS. 

 

Coming UP: Analysis of various aspects related to SCS Disputes

 

Comments and value additions are most welcome

 

For regular updates please register here –

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References:

  1. https://scroll.in/article/968918/how-did-the-south-china-sea-dispute-begin-and-where-is-it-headed
  2. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53397673
  3. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/issues/south-china-sea
  4. https://www.peacepalacelibrary.nl/library-special/south-china-sea-territorial-disputes/
  5. https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/south-china-sea-dispute
  6. https://www.straight.com/news/khalid-zaka-a-summary-of-south-china-sea-conflict

  7. The Politics of South China Sea Disputes, book by Nehginpao Kipgen

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Q & A Series: Catch 22 Situation of US – Pak relations

Pic Courtesy: Express Tribune

Question. In the comments section of one of the earlier posts, Air Cmde R Marwaha (Retd) had raised a very pertinent question as to why does US continue to engage and support Pakistan?

 

Catch 22. The question is curiously intriguing because United States rewards Pakistan for the very behaviour it seeks to curb i.e. terrorism under nuclear umbrella.

 

Three Main Reasons. Pakistan – US relations like any other engagement are governed by geopolitics realities and compulsions. In the recent years, contours of these relations have derived largely from US’s China and India policies, the Afghanistan war and her national security concerns related to international terrorism.

 

Factors. Various factors affecting the relations between the two countries are enumerated below in brief (each one is a topic of debate in itself). The changes in Pakistan – US relationship policy have been and in future would be governed by these factors in isolation or collectively.

 

Pak Demography. Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world.  By 2050 it is estimated that it will become the biggest Muslim nation (ahead of Indonesia) and the fourth most populous country in the world after India, China and the United States.

 

Pak’s Important Location. Pakistan lies in this unique geographic location, with a stake in the Western, Persian, Central Asian and South Asian dynamics. Pakistan is a strategically important country as it provides access to Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia – three of the most critical regions for world peace. It borders Afghanistan (where US fights its longest ever battle), Iran (which could be the theatre of a future US war), China (America’s biggest challenge) and India (one of the country US needs to contain China).  Its strategic location at the crossroads of South Asia and Central Asia, makes it a pivotal player in a region with significant economic potential, particularly in the exploitation and transportation of oil and gas.

 

Terrorism. Pakistan has a pivotal role to play in the ‘War on Terror’ and is critical for the international effort to counter global and regional terrorist groups.

 

Afghanistan. Pakistan is a critical player in US effort to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s location next to Afghanistan and historical involvement in that country make it a critical player in efforts to stabilise the country and to ensure that it does not return to being an operating base for extremists.

 

Nuclear Aspect. Besides the ‘War on Terror’ and the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan is important given its possession of nuclear weapons. Pakistan is one of the most troubled nations, widely viewed as “too dangerous to fail” because of the toxic mix of the terrorist proxies it nurtures under its ever-expanding nuclear umbrella. The risk of Pakistan falling apart along with its nuclear weapons is a far scarier prospect for the world. US engagement with Pakistan allows US to have some say in this direction.

 

Energy Security. Pakistan is essential for America’s energy security. Given its proximity to two of the world’s major oil reserves – Central and West Asia.

 

China. US cannot leave Pakistan entirely dependent on and strategically useful only to China.

 

Realpolitik Game. Supporting Pakistan, keeps US alignments open in South Asia. It also gives them some leverage over India.

 

Comments and Value additions are most welcome.

For regular updates please register here –

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References:

  1. https://www.lawfareblog.com/new-way-engaging-pakistan
  2. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/94663/Rakisits,.pdf
  3. https://www.quora.com/Why-does-the-United-States-give-so-much-foreign-aid-to-Pakistan