Tag: geopolitics

Posted on

Q & A Series: Catch 22 Situation of US – Pak relations

Pic Courtesy: Express Tribune

Question. In the comments section of one of the earlier posts, Air Cmde R Marwaha (Retd) had raised a very pertinent question as to why does US continue to engage and support Pakistan?

 

Catch 22. The question is curiously intriguing because United States rewards Pakistan for the very behaviour it seeks to curb i.e. terrorism under nuclear umbrella.

 

Three Main Reasons. Pakistan – US relations like any other engagement are governed by geopolitics realities and compulsions. In the recent years, contours of these relations have derived largely from US’s China and India policies, the Afghanistan war and her national security concerns related to international terrorism.

 

Factors. Various factors affecting the relations between the two countries are enumerated below in brief (each one is a topic of debate in itself). The changes in Pakistan – US relationship policy have been and in future would be governed by these factors in isolation or collectively.

 

Pak Demography. Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world.  By 2050 it is estimated that it will become the biggest Muslim nation (ahead of Indonesia) and the fourth most populous country in the world after India, China and the United States.

 

Pak’s Important Location. Pakistan lies in this unique geographic location, with a stake in the Western, Persian, Central Asian and South Asian dynamics. Pakistan is a strategically important country as it provides access to Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia – three of the most critical regions for world peace. It borders Afghanistan (where US fights its longest ever battle), Iran (which could be the theatre of a future US war), China (America’s biggest challenge) and India (one of the country US needs to contain China).  Its strategic location at the crossroads of South Asia and Central Asia, makes it a pivotal player in a region with significant economic potential, particularly in the exploitation and transportation of oil and gas.

 

Terrorism. Pakistan has a pivotal role to play in the ‘War on Terror’ and is critical for the international effort to counter global and regional terrorist groups.

 

Afghanistan. Pakistan is a critical player in US effort to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s location next to Afghanistan and historical involvement in that country make it a critical player in efforts to stabilise the country and to ensure that it does not return to being an operating base for extremists.

 

Nuclear Aspect. Besides the ‘War on Terror’ and the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan is important given its possession of nuclear weapons. Pakistan is one of the most troubled nations, widely viewed as “too dangerous to fail” because of the toxic mix of the terrorist proxies it nurtures under its ever-expanding nuclear umbrella. The risk of Pakistan falling apart along with its nuclear weapons is a far scarier prospect for the world. US engagement with Pakistan allows US to have some say in this direction.

 

Energy Security. Pakistan is essential for America’s energy security. Given its proximity to two of the world’s major oil reserves – Central and West Asia.

 

China. US cannot leave Pakistan entirely dependent on and strategically useful only to China.

 

Realpolitik Game. Supporting Pakistan, keeps US alignments open in South Asia. It also gives them some leverage over India.

 

Comments and Value additions are most welcome.

For regular updates please register here –

https://55nda.com/blogs/anil-khosla/subscribe/

References:

  1. https://www.lawfareblog.com/new-way-engaging-pakistan
  2. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/94663/Rakisits,.pdf
  3. https://www.quora.com/Why-does-the-United-States-give-so-much-foreign-aid-to-Pakistan

Posted on

लाल टोपी रुसी – दिल हिन्दुस्तानी: Indo – Russian Relations

Indo-Russian Relations

 

 “special and privileged strategic partnership”

 

 Geography and Geopolitics have been binding Russia and India together in the past. However, in the world politics there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests and these also change with time. The deep, traditional and even “time-tested relations” shared for decades cannot be taken for granted. The premise of Indo-Russia relationship has undergone significant changes since the end of the Cold War. The strategic bond that existed between India and the Soviet Union is not the same as that with Russia and has been considerably diluted. Every country places its national interests above anything else, so does Russia. Russia may not be a partner at the earlier level and perhaps we should not expect it either. From the “special and privileged strategic partnership,” we appear to be moving towards a transactional relationship.

 

Defence Cooperation: India-Russia Strategic Partnership in Recess | Vivekananda International Foundation

Pic: Coutesy mapsofindia.com

Defence Cooperation. One of the strong pillar of India-Russia ties has is in the defence field. A close defence relationship with any country is based on trust which takes time to build. A critical issue is risk of interruption in supplies during conflict situations due to political reasons. Russia has been a tried and tested partner in this regard. Russia has been offering advanced defence equipment and sensitive military technologies. Almost 60 – 70 percent of equipment with India’s armed forces is of Russian origin. Sudden decoupling or complete switch to western equipment is not possible.

 

“We need to convert the extraordinary goodwill between India and Russia into a thriving, visible, vigorous, and mutually beneficial economic relationship”.

 

– Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee

 

Importance of Relationship. Russia, of course, can no longer provide the kind of political and economic support to India as it did in the Cold War years. For India, Russia is a vital partner for energy security, and defence needs, willing to supply the “cutting-edge technology”. India-Russia relations have not been limited to energy and defence. While defence has been the strongest leg of the bilateral cooperation, there are several other areas in which the two countries cooperate – spanning culture, trade, transportation, education, science and technology, space and nuclear energy etc.

 

“Tolstoy and Gandhi had an indelible effect on each other. Let India and Russia make their relations better by taking inspiration from them. Let both the nations become bigger stakeholders in each other’s development,”

– Indian PM Shri N Modi

 

Way Ahead. India-Russia relations may not be as warm as they were during the Cold War, but both countries remain important for each other in the existing geopolitical scenario. Rapidly changing geo-political and geo-strategic dynamics presents significant challenges but also opportunities that India and Russia can leverage to further invigorate and intensify their relations to mutual advantage. Both the nations should view the relationship in a pragmatic manner, address their differences and divergences and identify fresh areas for cooperation. Many areas exist in which both countries can expand and deepen their relations for mutual benefit. Some suggestions are as follows:-

  • Cooperation could be enhanced in the high technology field including robotics, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, space, nuclear energy, biotechnology and hydrocarbons,
  • Other areas of focus could include infrastructure, skill development, agriculture, shipbuilding, railways, aviation, pharmaceuticals, healthcare and deep sea exploration etc.
  • The two countries could cooperate effectively on regional and global issues in multilateral bodies.
  • Both should sustain and further reinforce dialogue at the highest as well as at Ministerial / Senior Official level.
  • Increase people-to-people connectivity, with special focus on the younger generation and cultural sphere. Regular cooperation with the Russian and Indian think tanks and joint publications would create better understanding of each other.

Comments and value additions are most welcome

 

Coming up : Other parts of the Equation

effect of Indo – US,  Russia – Pakistan and China – Russia relations

 

For regular updates please register here –

https://55nda.com/blogs/anil-khosla/subscribe/

References:

  1. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-must-be-realistic-about-russia-relations
  2. https://theprint.in/opinion/india-russia-less-useful-to-each-other-now-disagreements-will-only-grow/621264/
  3. https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-russia-ties-in-a-changing-world-order-in-pursuit-of-a-special-strategic-partnership-56877/
  4. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-russia-relations-in-a-post-covid-world/
  5. https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/india-russia-relations-face-more-trouble/
  6. https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/isnt-yet-time-write-obituary-india-russia-ties
  7. https://indianembassy-moscow.gov.in/70-years-of-india-russia-relations-a-historic-milestone.php

 

Posted on

Pakistan Through US Prism (Part1)

USA has been partnering with Pakistan for the war against terrorism. Few reports are available in the open domain about how USA perceives Pakistan and its Military.

Some of these perceptions of USA about Pakistan and comments are as follows:

 

General

Pakistanis remain in a grim mood about the state of their country. Overwhelming majorities are dissatisfied with national conditions, unhappy with the nation’s economy, and concerned about political corruption and crime. 

Most Pakistanis see a struggle taking place between Islamic fundamentalists and groups that want to modernize the country; and the vast majority of those who do see a struggle identify with the modernizers.

 

About Pakistan Army.

Continue reading “Pakistan Through US Prism (Part1)”