Tag: geopolitics

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227: Urgent Need for National Security Strategy / Policy Document

 

PART 1: POLICY DOCUMENT & ITS ADVANTAGES

 

NSS Policy Document

 

  • NSS document outlines country’s major security concerns and guideline plans to deal with them.

 

  • It is Vision of the path nation should take in pursuit of attaining national objectives.

 

  • It outlines countries power to overcome internal and external challenges and projection of comprehensive national power.

 

  • It is a plan to employ tools of national power in accordance with national policy to achieve national security objectives I support of national interests.

 

  • It guides Military and Foreign Policy.

 

  • From NSS flows the national military strategy.

 

  • Joint, air, land and maritime strategies are derived from the military strategy.

 

Advantages of Clearly Defined NSS Policy Document.

 

  • It provides clear direction preventing ad hocism and knee jerk reactions.

 

  • It helps in a synchronised approach by various agencies and ministries. Whole of government approach becomes easier.

 

  • It encourages proactive approach.

 

  • It provides consistency and immunity from regime change.

 

  • It helps in formulation of appropriate response policy by better coordination and analysis of complex inter-relationship between domestic and external dimensions.

 

  • It helps in dealing with internal security challenges arising out of economic, political and social issues. Helps in timely political intervention and implementation of social welfare programmes, rather than using hard power alone.

 

PART 2: INDIAN CONTEXT

 

India Does not have a Comprehensive National Security Strategy Document.

 

NSC was formed in 1999. Still after 22 years the NSS document has not been promulgated.

 

Previous Attempts

 

Last two decades the issue has surfaced many times in the media.

 

  • In 1999 it found a mention in the Kargil Review Committee report.

 

  • It was reported that in 2007, HQ IDS submitted a draft NSS document to NSA and PMO.

 

  • It found a mention again in 2012, in the Naresh Chandra Task Force report on security.

 

  • It was reported in 2015 that NSAB document “Building Comprehensive National Power towards Integrated NSS” has been prepared.

 

  • In 2018 it was reported again that NSAB has drafted a NSS document and it has been reviewed by the Defence Planning Committee and forwarded to defence and foreign secretory.

 

  • In 2019 Congress party asked Retired Gen DS Hooda to prepare a draft NSS document.

 

Possible Reasons for Non promulgation of NSS.

 

  • No Political consensus on national security issues and ways to deal with them.

 

  • No common understanding and agreement about its contents

 

  • Fear of failure and criticism.

 

  • Political games and election gimmicks.

 

Indian National Security Objectives

 

For formulation of NSS document the starting point would be listing out the National Security Objectives. These have been suggested by many think tanks, analysts and writers. The national security objectives could include the following:

 

  • Strengthening of capabilities to maintain credible deterrence.

 

  • Protect and safe guard India’s
  • National Sovereignty.
  • National Constitution and Core Values.
  • National Territorial Integrity.
  • Air, space, cyber and maritime domains.

 

  • Maintain peaceful Internal Security environment by guarding against threats to national unity and development.

 

  • Human security by protecting citizens and providing them a safe, just, equitable and prosperous climate.

 

  • Achieving Safe neighbourhood and constructive engagement with other nations.

 

  • Maintaining rightful place in the international global affairs.

 

 

PART 3: RECOMMENDATIONS

 

There is an urgent need to formulate and promulgate NSS document. Suggestions are as follows:

 

  • It should be a comprehensive document covering all the security concerns.

 

  • It should contain broad guidelines about ways to deal with them.

 

  • It could be very specific about certain issues while being open ended about others.

 

  • It could have two components – classified and unclassified.

 

  • It should have a short, medium and long term road map.

 

  • It should cover external and internal challenges.

 

  • It should touch regional and global issues of concern.

 

  • It should provide guidelines for multi-agency response.

 

  • It should serve as a national guiding document and not become a political tool.

 

Suggested Contents

 

Some of the suggested contents are as follows:

 

  • National security objectives.

 

  • Geopolitical and security environment (regional and global).

 

  • Security concerns related to all the tools of statecraft (DIME).

 

  • Could include following:
    • External security.
    • Internal security (NE, J&K, Naxalism and Terrorism)
    • Economic security
    • Energy security
    • Food security
    • Health security
    • CBRN concerns
    • Cyber security
    • Space security
    • Information security and media concerns
    • Water concerns
    • Environmental concerns
    • Disaster management.

 

  • Military capabilities
    • Deterrence value
    • Multi domain capabilities to deal with future wars.
    • Expeditionary capabilities.

 

  • Technology harnessing for civil and military purposes.

 

  • Structural reforms of national security apparatus.

 

  • Border management and demographic issues.

 

  • Issues related to natural resources and minerals.

 

  • Defence industry and Atmanirbharta.

 

The list is not comprehensive. Many more issues could be added or some of these could be left out for time being. A beginning could be made with a draft document and let it evolve over a period of time.

 

Titbits

USA in a period of 30 years (1987 – 2017) published 17 NSS documents. The document has been reviewed by every president and multiple times by some of them. The US document size varies from 40 to 70 Pages.

 

Coming Up

Pakistan’s Proposed National security policy Document.

 

Bottom Line

 There is an urgent need for Formulation and publication of National Security Strategy / Policy document.

 

Question

In India can we overcome political fears and publish the document?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

Commodore Sujeet Samaddar (Retd) wrote about this topic in his book in 2003.

 

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References:

1.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Strategy_(India)#:~:text=The%20National%20Security%20Strategy%20(NSS,challenge%20of%20successive%20Indian%20governments.

  1. https://thewire.in/security/india-must-chart-out-a-national-security-strategy-for-a-changing-geopolitical-world
  2. https://www.cprindia.org/news/need-comprehensive-national-security-strategy 
  1. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-blueprint-for-a-national-security-strategy/article27211062.ece
  2. https://idsa.in/idsacomments/ANationalSecurityStrategyDocumentforIndia_arvindgupta_201011
  3. http://164.100.47.193/fileupload/current/120816.pdf
  4. https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/india-needs-national-security-strategy-to-set-redlines-like-ladakh-intrusion-force-govt-to-build-capability-2783219.html

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215: China Demographic Analysis: Population

pic courtesy: Visualcapatalist.com 

 

Population

The current population of China is 1,446,554,428 (as of Thursday, October 21, 2021, based on World meter elaboration of the latest United Nations data).

China ranks number 1 in the list of countries by population.

China population is equivalent to 18.47% of the total world population.

 

Population Trend

50 years back China had touched growth rate of 2+ by percentage.

The growth rate has come down to about 0.4 percent now.

If present trend continues, zero growth rate will be reached somewhere between 2030 and 2035.

Thereafter it will be in negative.

By 2030 China will not be the most populace country. It will drop to number 2 position.

 

Population control

Initially, China’s post-1949 leaders were ideologically disposed to view a large population as an asset. But the liabilities of a large, rapidly growing population soon became apparent.

In 1972 and 1973 the party mobilized its resources for a nationwide birth control campaign administered by a group in the State Council. Population growth targets were set for both administrative units and individual families. In the mid-1970s the maximum recommended family size was two children in cities and three or four in the country.

One Child Policy. Since 1979 the government has advocated a one-child limit for both rural and urban areas and has generally set a maximum of two children in special circumstances. The overall goal of the one-child policy was to keep the total population within 1.2 billion. The one-child policy was unique, however, in that it linked reproduction with economic cost or benefit. Under the one-child program, a sophisticated system rewarded those who observed the policy and penalized those who did not. Through this policy, the rate of increasing population was tempered after the penalties were made. Couples with only one child were given a “one-child certificate” entitling them to such benefits as cash bonuses, longer maternity leave, better child care, and preferential housing assignments. In return, they were required to pledge that they would not have more children. The one-child policy enjoyed much greater success in urban than in rural areas.

Rapid fertility reduction associated with the one-child policy has potentially negative results in terms of increase in median age.

 

Median Age and Trend

The median age in China is 38.4 years.

50 to 60 years back it was close to 20 years.

If present trend continues, the median age of china will touch close to 50 years by 2050.

Even though China has already opened two-child policy since 2016, data shows that the second-child policy cannot stop the problem of an aging population.

 

Population Density.

The population density in China is 153 per Km2 (397 people per mi2).

50 years back this figure was about 90.

By 2050, it will touch a figure of 150.

 

Distribution

Broadly speaking, the population is concentrated in the east.

The most densely populated areas included the Yangtze River Valley (of which the delta region was the most populous), Sichuan Basin, North China Plain, Pearl River Delta, and the industrial area around the city of Shenyang in the northeast.

Population is most sparse in the mountainous, desert, and grassland regions of the northwest and southwest.

In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, portions are completely uninhabited, and only a few sections have populations denser than ten people per km2. The Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Tibet autonomous regions and Qinghai and Gansu comprise 55% of the country’s land area but in 1985 contained only 5.7% of its population.

 

Urban / Rural Distribution and trend

60.8 % of the population is urban.

50 years back this percentage was about 20%.

By 2050, the urban population would touch about 80 %.

 

Largest Cities in China (by Population) are:-

CITY NAME POPULATION
1 Shanghai 22,315,474
2 Beijing 11,716,620
3 Tianjin 11,090,314
4 Guangzhou 11,071,424
5 Shenzhen 10,358,381
6 Wuhan 9,785,388
7 Dongguan 8,000,000
8 Chongqing 7,457,600
9 Chengdu 7,415,590
10 Nanjing 7,165,292

 

Other Figures and Trends

According to the 2020 census, 91.11% of the population is Han Chinese, and 8.89% are other minorities.

Life expectancy is 77.5. This figure was close to 45 years about 70 years back and about 60 50 years back.

Infant Mortality rate is 8.4 per 1000 births.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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References

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/china-population/#:~:text=The%20current%20population%20of%20China,of%20the%20total%20world%20population.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263765/total-population-of-china/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=CN

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-population-of-china-compared-with-the-rest-of-the-world/

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