Shadow Boxing: Debate at the 76th Session of UN General Assembly

Pic: Courtesy The Diplomat

During the general debate on the 21 Sep 21, Speech by US and Chinese president was interesting.

 

Link to US president speech:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/21/remarks-by-president-biden-before-the-76th-session-of-the-united-nations-general-assembly/

 

Link to Chinese president Speech:

http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/22/c_1310201230.htm

 

Punches

Biden spoke about democracy and universal human rights, hinting at defending democracy and human rights from creeping authoritarianism.

 

Xi spoke only fleetingly of human rights through development and democracy as not a special right reserved to any individual country.

 

Xi used U.S. failure in Afghanistan as a counterpoint to global challenges emerging out of Covid-19 pandemic.

 

Xi’s message to developing countries is that China has emerged from deep poverty to the world’s second largest economy whereas, USA has been invading and fighting foreign wars.

 

Selling China

Xi prioritised economic development while decrying sovereignty-violating foreign military interventions.

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech constituted an explicit pitch to developing countries for a post-U.S. dominant world order hinged to China’s economic development model.

 

Xi laid out initiatives including international aid and debt relief for the needs of less-developed members of the U.N.

 

Common Denominators

 

Both leaders made specific commitments to address the global challenges of Covid-19 with pledges of vaccine doses to countries that lack them and financial support for the World Health Organization’s COVAX equitable vaccine supply initiative.

 

Climate change figured prominently in both speeches.

  • Biden promised greater government funding for “green infrastructure and electric vehicles” and $11 billion in climate aid annually by 2024 to assist poorer countries vulnerable to extreme weather and rising temperatures.
  • Xi announced that China will stop funding the construction of coal-fired power plants outside its borders.

 

Both leaders also spoke of the Afghanistan situation but with wildly different perspectives.

  • Xi called Afghanistan situation as an event demonstrating that military intervention from the outside and so-called democratic transformation entail nothing but harm.
  • Biden called the Afghanistan withdrawal a national turning point in a new era of relentless diplomacy.

 

Inferences: Another Cold War

Xi’s speech had no tone or content to ease the currently fraught U.S.-China relationship.

 

Messages from both the speeches indicate that there is very less chance of any meaningful reset in their bilateral relationship. The relationship seems to be heading towards a Cold War.

 

China is projecting itself as the alternative to the USA. China is presenting an alternative version of globalization, asking smaller countries to pick a side.

 

Bottom Line

Sumo Wrestling is going ON.

 “When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled”

 

Question

Who in your opinion will win this bout?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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References:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2020/05/15/welcome-to-politico-china-watcher-489237

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/21/remarks-by-president-biden-before-the-76th-session-of-the-united-nations-general-assembly/

http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/22/c_1310201230.htm

BARKING UP THE WRONG TREE

 

US withdrawal from Afghanistan resulted in immediate collapse of Afghan government. Taliban just walked over them.

The list of reasons attributed to the debacle is endless (probably more than the number of analysts).  Some of the reasons include:-

  • Taliban never abided by the terms of the agreement.

 

  • Failure of Afghan military to counter the Taliban advance.

 

  • Corruption in Afghan government.

 

  • United States had forced the Afghan government to release imprisoned Taliban fighters.

 

  • US did not understand the local psyche.

 

  • US concentrated on equipment and training for Afghan military capability building, ignoring the mind factor.

Continue reading “BARKING UP THE WRONG TREE”

Dragon Antics: Change of Heart or Change of Approach

 

Since 2002, the CPC Politburo has been convening monthly group study sessions conducted by professors and researchers. Speakers lecture on domestic affairs and share experiences from developed countries. Priority is given to economic issues, followed by political / ideological and social issues, and lastly, military issues and international relations.

 

In his recent speech at the 30th collective study session of the politburo, Xi instructed the country’s leaders to focus on a “trustworthy, lovable and respectable” image for China. He went on to suggest that the country should adopt a “humble” approach in relations with the outside world (“We should make friends, unite and win the majority, and continuously expand the circle of international public opinion friends who know China and are friendly to China”). Most of Xi’s remarks focused on redoubling Beijing’s efforts to create a more positive image of the Communist Party overseas by using social media, electronic media and other means.

 

There were swift reactions worldwide to the statement. Some wondered whether it was the end of China’s sharp-edged Wolf Warrior diplomacy. Others were cautious and hopeful that it could lead to real change. Essence of some of the reactions from various China watchers are as follows:

 

  • What Xi says cannot and should not be trusted. His regime is committing genocide and violating human rights, skirting responsibility for the global pandemic that killed thousands around the world, and building a military and threatening the world.

 

  • Xi’s comments don’t really change anything. It is just a change in approach, unless the words are put to action.

 

  • Maybe the change in tone is to avoid boycott of Olympics. The call for boycott of Olympics in China are increasing world over.

 

  • Xi’s speech is a slight turn and not a fundamental reorientation because the emphasis is still on promoting a positive image of China overseas. The news release of the event indicates that the speech meant to convey that “China should assert its views but do so in a more artful manner. Do not have to go all-out like a Wolf Warrior all of the time and can take a step back sometimes.”

 

  • One of the view is that Xi is serious about the change in approach, and he has urged everyone to “develop a voice in international discourse that matches with China’s comprehensive national strength and international status, presenting a true, multi-dimensional and panoramic view of the country.”

 

  • The reactions in US are divided with one school of thought suggesting that the China policy of US should not change, while the other suggesting that US should also tone down.

 

 

My Take

 

  • China cannot be trusted.
  • China is known for deceit and betrayal, changing its stance frequently.
  • This is just a change in approach and not its policies.
  • The change in tone is because of realisation that it has made too many enemies.
  • The change is to avoid damage to its economic growth (in turn growth in military power).
  • The change is in tune with its policy of two steps forward and one back.
  • The aggressive approach and belligerent behaviour would return again once it attains more power.

 

Titbits

 

Term Wolf Warrior diplomacy was inspired by China’s popular Rambo-like movies, “Wolf Warrior” and “Wolf Warrior II.”  The label has come to signify the tough, sharp-edged tone of many Chinese diplomats.

 

Value additions and comments are most welcome.

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References:

  1. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2021/06/03/xi-defangs-the-wolf-warrior-493098?nname=politico-china-watcher&nid=00000172-18aa-d57a-ad7b-5eafdd2b0000&nrid=3c46f8a6-d8dc-4af2-9727-6a8433d3e038&nlid=2674343
  2. https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/iaps/documents/cpi/briefings/briefing-27-collective-study-sessions-of-the-politburo.pdf
  3. http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0204/c98649-9014098.html
  4. 4. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2021/06/03/xi-defangs-the-wolf-warrior-493098