535: BOOK REVIEW: THE FOUR AGES OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, BY MICHAEL MANDELBAUM

 

Published on Indus International Research Foundation Website on 19 Nov 24.

 

 

Review by: Air Marshal Anil Khosla (Retd) PVSM, AVSM, VM

Former Vice Chief of Air Staff, Indian Air Force.

 

Michael Mandelbaum’s The Four Ages of American Foreign Policy offers a sweeping examination of the United States’ transformation from a fledgling nation into a hyperpower that dominates the global stage. By examining over two centuries of American history, Mandelbaum classifies U.S. foreign policy into four primary “ages,” each representing a distinct growth phase and influence in international affairs. The book dives into the evolution of American strategy and intent in foreign relations, framing each “age” as a response to shifting global circumstances and reflecting the country’s unique political culture. By dividing the country’s history into weak power, great power, superpower, and hyperpower, Mandelbaum provides a framework for understanding how the U.S. has adapted its policies to meet the changing needs of each era.

 

Mandelbaum’s narrative opens with the Weak Power era (1776–1865), during which America primarily focused on survival and independence rather than international ambitions. The young nation was more concerned with establishing a stable government and defending its sovereignty than projecting power abroad. This era was marked by the emphasis on avoiding European entanglements, which is evident in policies like George Washington’s Farewell Address, which urged against permanent alliances, and Thomas Jefferson’s expansion-oriented Monroe Doctrine. Mandelbaum highlights that during this period, the U.S. was relatively powerless in global affairs, focused on creating a continental nation and avoiding conflicts that could threaten its security and stability.

 

However, as the United States expanded westward and industrialised, it grew in strength and influence, eventually emerging as a Great Power (1865–1945). This era, Mandelbaum argues, was defined by America’s transition from a primarily inward-focused power to an increasingly assertive global player. Following the Civil War, the U.S. embraced a more interventionist stance, particularly in the Western Hemisphere, solidifying its presence through events like the Spanish-American War and the subsequent acquisition of overseas territories, including Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines. Mandelbaum examines how the U.S. began to assert influence beyond its borders, adopting a broader vision of its role in the Western Hemisphere and, later, in the First World War, as a global moral leader. Although hesitant to join the League of Nations after World War I, America’s involvement in the war indicated a shifting sense of responsibility for world affairs.

 

The author provides a nuanced examination of the Superpower era (1945–1991), marked by the Cold War rivalry with the Soviet Union. This era saw the U.S. and Soviet Union engage in a multi-decade ideological struggle, where each superpower sought to assert the dominance of its political and economic systems across the globe. Mandelbaum explains that American foreign policy during this time was driven by the doctrine of containment, which focused on limiting the spread of communism and Soviet influence. Key policies of this era included the Truman Doctrine, which pledged U.S. support for nations resisting communist subjugation, and the Marshall Plan, a bold investment to help rebuild European economies while staving off Soviet influence. Mandelbaum argues that the U.S.’s superpower status during the Cold War allowed it to shape international institutions and norms in unprecedented ways, often dictating the terms of global security and economic stability.

 

However, the Cold War’s end and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 heralded the onset of the Hyperpower era (1991–Present). Mandelbaum characterises this period as one of unparalleled dominance by the United States, as it stood as the world’s only remaining superpower. American influence permeated nearly every aspect of international relations in this new global reality. The U.S. was not just a powerful nation but, for a time, an almost uncontested force that set the agenda in international politics, economics, and culture. However, Mandelbaum is careful to note the challenges of this hyperpower era. Though the U.S. achieved a level of influence unmatched in world history, it has also faced significant struggles in this role. Post-9/11 conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, have been costly and complex, challenging America’s perception as a stabilising force. Mandelbaum argues that despite America’s overwhelming military and economic advantages, the hyperpower era has exposed limitations in achieving long-term stability through military interventions alone.

 

Mandelbaum’s The Four Ages of American Foreign Policy excels in its ability to contextualise complex foreign policy decisions within each era’s historical trends and pressures. By categorising U.S. foreign policy into these distinct “ages,” he provides a framework for understanding the ebb and flow of American influence as it adapts to an ever-changing international landscape. Throughout the book, Mandelbaum offers detailed analyses of significant policies, such as the Marshall Plan, NATO, and the recent “War on Terror,” examining how each has shaped the global order and influenced the U.S.’s position.

 

A significant strength of Mandelbaum’s book is his exploration of the interplay between American ideals and strategic interests. For instance, he discusses how the nation’s commitment to democracy and capitalism influenced its actions during the Cold War, balancing the moral impetus to protect freedom with the pragmatic need to counter Soviet influence. Mandelbaum also addresses the ideological basis of American foreign policy, reflecting on the country’s self-image as a “city upon a hill” and the belief in its mission to spread freedom and democracy. He explains how this ideology has fuelled foreign policy initiatives while creating tensions and inconsistencies—particularly when U.S. actions abroad have conflicted with its professed values.

 

The Four Ages of American Foreign Policy is compelling and informative. Mandelbaum’s historical perspective provides readers with a roadmap to understand how and why the United States has occupied such a central role on the world stage and how its position has changed over time. By framing U.S. foreign policy within the distinct categories of weak power, great power, superpower, and hyperpower, Mandelbaum offers a lens through which readers can analyse current American foreign policy, equipped with the historical context needed to understand its complexities.

 

The Four Ages of American Foreign Policy is essential for anyone interested in the history and future of American influence in global affairs. Mandelbaum’s clear, insightful writing and well-structured approach make the book accessible to both foreign policy students and general readers alike. This work reminds us that while America has achieved great influence, it also bears significant responsibilities and must continuously adapt to maintain its role in a changing world.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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534: CHINA PLUS ONE STRATEGY: DRAGON’S LOSS IS OTHER’S GAIN

 

The “China Plus One” (C+1) strategy refers to a diversification approach adopted by businesses to reduce reliance on China as a manufacturing and supply chain hub. Under this strategy, companies maintain a strong presence in China but establish operations in at least one other country to mitigate risks associated with over-dependence on China.

 

Drivers of the C+1 Strategy

 

    • Trade Tensions: Escalating trade wars, especially between the U.S. and China, have made companies cautious about relying solely on China.
    • Geopolitical Risks: Concerns about political instability, regulatory unpredictability, and strained diplomatic relations involving China.
    • Rising Costs: Labor and operational costs in China have been increasing, pushing companies to explore cost-competitive alternatives.
    • Supply Chain Disruptions: Events like the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns exposed vulnerabilities in concentrated supply chains.
    • Regulatory Pressures: Governments and businesses are encouraging a shift from China to diversify global production.

 

Key Destinations for “Plus One”.

Countries in South and Southeast Asia are among the top beneficiaries of this strategy, offering cost-competitive environments, favourable trade policies, and geographical proximity to China. These include:

    • Vietnam: Strong manufacturing base, trade agreements, and proximity to China.
    • India: Large workforce, growing infrastructure, and government incentives for foreign investment.
    • Thailand: Well-developed logistics and supply chain networks.
    • Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines: Emerging hubs with improving manufacturing capabilities.

 

Benefits of the C+1 Strategy:

    • Risk Mitigation: Reduces the impact of disruptions like tariffs, sanctions, or natural disasters.
    • Cost Optimisation: Allows companies to capitalise on lower operational costs in emerging markets.
    • Market Diversification: Expands access to other growing economies in Asia and beyond.
    • Resilience: Builds a more robust and flexible supply chain.

 

Challenges

    • Logistical Complexity: Managing multi-country operations can complicate supply chain logistics.
    • Infrastructure Gaps: Emerging countries often need more of China’s sophisticated infrastructure.
    • Skilled Labour Availability: Matching China’s manufacturing expertise may be challenging.
    • Policy and Bureaucratic Hurdles: Alternative countries’ regulatory environments may need more stability and efficiency.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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BANGLADESHI TANGO WITH CHINA

 

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

Over the past five years, a significant improvement in areas of economic and defence cooperation has been observed between Bangladesh and China.

 

China has been following the policy of generous economic assistance, gaining considerable support within Bangladesh, both politically and among the general public.

 

Bangladesh is tending to become more authoritarian in recent times. China’s unwavering support for the government has also played a pivotal role in fostering this alignment. On the other hand emphasis on democratic values by the USA has strained their relations to some extent.

 

Deepening Economic Cooperation

 

Trade. Since 2017, Bangladesh has deepened its engagement with China. China has become Bangladesh’s largest trading partner.

 

Infrastructure. China has already invested around USD $9.75 billion in transportation projects in Bangladesh (including ongoing initiatives such as the Padma Bridge Rail Link, Bangabandhu Tunnel, and Dasher Kandi Sewerage Treatment Plant, etc).

 

FDI. China has also emerged as the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh. It has also ranked as the top foreign investor in Bangladesh in 2022, with 104 investors operating in eight export-processing zones.

 

Duty-Free Access. From July 2020, China has granted duty-free access to 97 per cent (later increased further) of Bangladeshi products entering its market. This proved to be a significant development in bilateral trade relations.

 

Stronger Defence Ties

 

Arms Import. Bangladesh’s military partnership with China has also grown significantly and it has become China’s second-largest arms customer, after Pakistan.

 

Defence Cooperation. Defence cooperation between the two countries also includes military personnel training in China and collaboration in defence production.

 

Naval Capability Enhancement. In 2016, Bangladesh acquired submarines from China. In March 2023, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister unveiled the country’s submarine base (Constructed by China), named BNS Sheikh Hasina, in Cox’s Bazar. The facility has the capacity to accommodate six submarines and several warships. Currently, two Chinese-made submarines are stationed at the base, representing a significant development in Bangladesh’s naval capabilities.

 

Air Force Contract. China has recently signed a contract to supply 23 Hongdu K-8W intermediate training jets to the Bangladesh Air Force, further bolstering their military cooperation.

 

Geopolitical Aspects

 

Tug of war. In the post-COVID period and during the Russia-Ukraine war, geopolitical tension in the Indo-Pacific has also increased. Both China and the United States want Bangladesh in their camp.

 

Push and Pull. The United States had invited Bangladesh to join its Indo-Pacific Strategy, as a partner in the Indo-Pacific region. In response, China had warned that Bangladesh’s relations with China would be damaged if it joins the Quad, while also seeking Bangladesh’s participation in its Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative.

 

Strains. Bangladesh’s shift towards China, coupled with concerns over its dismissal of democratic values and human rights, has strained its relationship with the United States.

 

Drifting Apart. The international community has criticized the conduct of the 2014 and 2018 elections under the Awami League government. In response to human rights violations, the United States has imposed sanctions and implemented visa restrictions on individuals undermining democratic processes. Exclusion from the Biden Democracy Summit indicates a change in U.S. policy towards Bangladesh.

 

Pains and Gains. While the United States distances itself from the Awami League government, China is extending financial support and strengthening ties with Bangladesh.

 

Russian Angle. Russia is with China to counter the US influence in Bangladesh. Bangladesh and Russia have reached an agreement to use the Chinese yuan for payment in a nuclear power plant project (objected to by the USA).

 

Rohingya Crisis. The Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh poses a significant challenge to China’s geopolitical interests in the region. A peaceful resolution to this crisis, led by China, could further solidify its influence and foothold in Bangladesh. On the other hand, the United States has also taken steps to address the crisis, with the likelihood of an increase in its presence and influence in Bangladesh. The resolution of the Rohingya crisis holds implications for the geopolitical dynamics in the region, impacting the interests of both China and the United States.

 

Analytical Implications.

 

All key stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific such as the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and India are major development partners for Bangladesh.

 

Bangladesh’s shift towards China strained relations with the United States, and interests from India and Russia highlight the complex geo-political dynamics.

 

The choices made by Bangladesh in its alliances will have significant implications for its development and security. It will also have a far-reaching effect on the geopolitical dynamics of the region.

 

Through cooperation with Bangladesh, Beijing is also expanding its footprint in the Indo-Pacific.

 

Bangladesh’s increasing military partnership with China is encouraging anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh and will also put pressure on India.

 

Learning from Chinese engagement and its adverse effects, on other countries, Bangladesh will have to play with fire with caution.

 

Bottom Line

India should not lose Bangladesh to China (like Nepal).

 

Question

Are we enough in this regard?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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References and credits

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China in south Asia:  Bangladesh tilting towards China by Shafi Mostafa on Southy Asian Voices.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.