498: RACE AND HUNT FOR MEDIUM TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT

 

 

My Article published on the Chanakya Forum Website.

 

The air transport fleet of any Air Force contributes to the air power attributes of speed, reach, flexibility, and responsiveness. Besides speedy induction and sustenance of forces, it is used for rescue missions. The air transport platforms are also utilised in force multiplier roles like air-to-air refuelling (AAR), Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS), Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), and Airborne Command Posts, Special Forces operations, etc. Most armed forces possess several transport aircraft for these crucial roles. Indian Air Force has numerous air transport platforms in its inventory. However, due to the ageing of the existing fleet and the increasing demands on air transport, there is an urgent need for new medium transport aircraft (MTA).

 

Medium transport aircraft are a category of military and civilian aircraft designed to transport cargo, troops, and equipment over medium ranges. These aircraft usually have a payload capacity of between 20 and 30 tonnes. They have large cargo holds to accommodate various cargo types, including oversized equipment, vehicles, and pallets. They also have configurable interiors to switch cargo, passenger, and medical evacuation roles. Modern navigation and communication systems ensure safe and efficient operations in diverse environments. They can take off and land on short runways (paved and unpaved) in harsh and remote locations with limited infrastructure. These aircraft are crucial in supporting military logistics, humanitarian aid, disaster response, and various commercial cargo operations due to their balance of range, payload, and versatility.

 

Post-independence, the IAF operated a mix of An-12, Packet Fairchild, Caribou, Dakota and Avro aircraft for Air Maintenance and Logistics support. In the early 1980s, the transport fleet was modernised with the induction of IL-76 aircraft (40 tonnes) and An-32 aircraft (4-6 tonnes). The Indian Air Force (IAF) now operates two types of fixed-wing transport aircraft: strategic heavy airlift aircraft and lesser-capacity tactical airlift aircraft. For strategic airlift purposes, the IAF operates 47-tonne capacity IL-76 and 77-tonne capacity C-17 III Globemaster aircraft. The IL-76 was procured from the Soviet Union in the 1980s, and the Globemaster was acquired from the United States in 2011. Medium lift and special operations platform includes 20-tonne capacity C-130J Hercules aircraft. For tactical airlift purposes, the IAF uses the vintage An-32 and Avro aircraft, which have been in service for over 50 years. IAF also operates IL-76-based A-50 AWACS aircraft and IL-78 aerial refueling tanker aircraft.

 

In the 1980s, the availability of An-12s started declining, and they were phased out in 1991-92. For over two decades, the IAF’s transport airlift capability mainly rested on heavy-lift IL-76 and light tactical airlift AN-32 aircraft. This airlift combination was inefficient, as there was no 20-ton airlift aircraft. Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) requirement was felt as early as 2001. The Russians proposed a HAL-Ilyushin joint development project for a medium-lift aircraft, IL-214, in the 20-tonne payload category. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) entered a joint venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation-Transport Aircraft Division in 2012 to design and produce a turbofan-powered military transport aircraft in the 15-20 tonne category. The two countries even signed a pact for co-development. However, for various reasons related to the design, engine, cost and technology transfer, the project was cancelled in 2016.

 

At its peak, the IAF operated over 200 AN-32 and Avro combinations in the 4-7 tonne tactical airlift category. The British-origin Avro procured in the late 1960s is being replaced by 56 10-tonne capacity Airbus C-295 aircraft. The AN-32 aircraft was upgraded in 2009 and has been the workhorse of the IAF transport fleet. However, they have reached the end of their technical lifespan, and their numbers have now dwindled to a low figure. Sustaining them has become difficult due to the Russia-Ukraine war, which has disrupted the supply of spare parts and maintenance services, underscoring the urgent need for their replacement.

 

Due to a lack of Indigenous options, the IAF had to opt for acquisition from the international market. In December 2022, the IAF issued a Request for Information (RFI) to purchase medium transport aircraft (MTA) under the “Make in India” category. The RFI mentions the aircraft weight category of 18-30 tonnes, capable of multiple roles. It does not indicate specific numbers but seeks Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimates for 40, 60 and 80 aircraft. Large-scale production could be followed up considering the utility in multiple roles, including civilian cargo applications and export prospects. The information sought by IAF from OEMs also includes the scope of technology transfer; possible methods to enhance indigenisation and to set up a dedicated manufacturing line, including design, integration and manufacturing processes in India; capability to undertake indigenous manufacture of systems, subsystems, components and spares; and making India a regional or global hub for manufacturing and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) of the equipment. This project has significant strategic and economic implications and aligns with the government’s Make in India initiative to boost self-reliance in the defence manufacturing sector. It would reduce the dependency on original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the long term, especially for maintenance, repair, overhaul, and future upgrades.

 

The IAF would be interested in the aircraft’s capability to operate from Advanced Landing Grounds (ALGs), high-altitude airfields, and semi-prepared surfaces. It would also want the platform’s suitability for multiple roles such as air-to-air refuelling, airborne surveillance, para dropping, and special operations. Acquisition cost, technology transfer, and production in India for Indian and global markets will be major decision-influencing factors. Possible contenders could be:-

 

    • Lockheed Martin’s C-130 J-30 Super Hercules. US aerospace firm Lockheed Martin has responded by offering the latest variant, the C-130 J-30 aircraft. The aircraft claims to have exceptional short take-off and landing capabilities even in higher altitudes and unprepared runways. IAF already operates C-130 aircraft and a few aircraft components are already being produced in India by the TATA Lockheed Martin Aero structure PVT LTD. Thus, this facility could produce complete aircraft domestically under the “Make in India” It would be easier on the Air Force in terms of maintenance and avoidance of another type in the inventory. However, besides being expensive, the aircraft is a 60-year-old design at the end of its production life. Also, there is the issue of technology access and transfer.

 

    • Embraer’s KC-390 Millennium. Brazilian Embraer Defence and Security is pitching the C-390 as the market’s most modern military transport aircraft. It is a new design jet aircraft with significant operational advantages. It is a versatile aircraft with fly-by-wire controls and a glass cockpit; it can carry a 26-tonne payload and achieve speeds of up to 870 kilometres per hour. It is optimised for multiple roles with low operating costs. IAF operates Embraer AC variants for VIP travel and airborne early warning and control aircraft. Embraer has expressed keenness to produce in India. Producing a new-generation aircraft would be advantageous from a technology acquisition and Indigenous industry development perspective. However, it has many American-origin components (engines, avionics, and sensors).

 

    • Airbus’ A400M Atlas. Airbus Defence and Space is jointly executing a project with Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL) to equip the Air Force with 56 C-295. It is offering A400M Atlas aircraft. The aircraft payload carrying capacity is 37 tonnes, higher than the prescribed criteria in the RFI. Airbus asserts that the A400M offers superior payload, range and ability to transport heavy and outsized loads over extended distances, presenting a game-changing potential for the IAF.

 

    • Russian IL-276. The Russian company would be more than willing to accommodate India’s interests. This could be an option provided the concerns that forced India to walk out of Joint Venture development of the MTA program earlier are addressed.

 

Most OEMs collaborate with Indian vendors to manufacture their respective aircraft in India. TATA is already collaborating with Lockheed Martin and Airbus to manufacture the components of the C-130 and complete the assembly of the C-295 aircraft. This collaboration could be expanded further for the MTA. In February 2024, Embraer signed a memorandum of understanding with Indian defence manufacturer Mahindra Defence to manufacture C-390 Millennium aircraft locally in India. Airbus has not yet announced who it will partner with to compete for the project. However, TASL and state-run aircraft manufacturer Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) could be among the likely options. HAL has offered to design and build a 30-ton payload aircraft in collaboration with an international OEM. These joint ventures should focus on production efficiency, supply chain control, and lower costs.

 

The IAF has been a regular contributor to the statecraft because of the role played by its air transport fleet. The benefits of its mission capabilities have been utilised both domestically and abroad. However, a balanced inventory of air transport aircraft is essential. There is an urgent need for the induction of medium transport aircraft. Acquiring a modern and capable transport aircraft will enhance India’s airlift capabilities and bolster its defence capabilities. Besides capability enhancement, the MTA project is an excellent opportunity to create a private-public industrial ecosystem for transport aircraft manufacturing in the country. The project will have significant strategic and economic implications. Operational requirements, cost vis-à-vis budget constraints, technology acquisition, boost to make in India, and geopolitical strategic partnerships will be crucial factors in decision-making.

 

Link to the article on Chanakya Forum:-

 

RACE AND HUNT FOR MEDIUM TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT

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References and credits

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References:-

  1. Air Marshal (Dr) Rajeev Sachdeva (Retd), “The Versatile Transport Fleet of the IAF”, SP Guide Publications, Issue: 09-2022.
  1. IAF RFI for MTA issued on 03 Feb 2023. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://indianairforce.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/RFI-for-MEDIUM-TRANSPORT-AIRCRAFT-1.pdf
  1. Atul Chandra, “In Need of Lift”, Force news magazine, Jul 2024.
  1. Air Marshal M Matheswaran AVSM, VM, PhD (Retd), “The resurrection of Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) Project”, Financial Express. 24 Feb 24.
  1. Ananth Iyer, “Transport, Tanker, Reconnaissance Aircrafts of the IAF”, Team-BHP, 15 Mar 2023.
  1. Rahul Manohar Yelwe, “Modernizing the Indian Air Force’s Transport Fleet”, The Diplomat, 10 May 2024.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

RACE AND HUNT FOR MEDIUM TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT

478: SHUBHANGI’S COLUMN:”Battle of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set to Challenge US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With Smart Air Combat AI” 

 

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

Shubhangi Palve is a Defence & Aerospace journalist currently associated with EurAsian Times. Prior to this role, she worked as a staff writer at ET Prime, focusing on defence strategies and the defence sector from a financial perspective. She has more than 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.

 

Her article on

“Battle of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set to Challenge US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With Smart Air Combat AI” 

was published on 20 May 2024 on “The EurAsian Times”.

 

(Besides the two quotes, the views of the author are her own)

 

“Battle of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set to Challenge US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With Smart Air Combat AI” 

 

Picture this: An unmanned combat air squadron launches into hostile skies, guided not by human pilots but by the cold calculus of artificial intelligence. With lightning speed, the AI war manager assesses threats, devises intricate battle plans, and unleashes a blistering onslaught of precision strikes against enemy strongholds. Each manoeuvre executes with machine perfection as the AI mastermind adapts seamlessly to the ever-shifting tides of aerial combat.

But hold on, this isn’t Hollywood fiction…

Welcome to the new age of hybrid airpower!

 

The Race for AI Supremacy Takes To the Skies

In the high-stakes game of military one-upmanship, a new battlefront has emerged – the fusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) with aerial combat systems.

China claims to have seized a potential edge, developing an “intelligent air combat AI” capable of making split-second tactical decisions and explaining its reasoning to human partners using an intelligent discourse of data visualisations and natural language.

This shatters the long-standing “black box” quandary that has handcuffed militaries – the inability of inscrutable AI systems to articulate the rationale behind their choices. Chinese researchers claim that their ground-breaking AI can engage in intelligent discourse, using words, data visualisations, and charts to illuminate why it issues specific flight instructions.

The Profound implications? An AI co-pilot can forge an unprecedented hybrid of linguistics between the domains of machine logic and human contextual intellect. Moreover, the Chinese team audaciously boasts that this symbiotic melding of abilities can achieve a staggering near-100% win rate in simulated aerial combat scenarios.

Meanwhile, the United States still grapples with the opaqueness of current AI architectures, a situation that underscores the importance of transparency and explainability in AI-driven systems. The US Air Force Secretary recently experienced the limitations of a “still-learning” AI controlling his F-16 flight, and its decision-making processes during potential weapon deployments remain obfuscated.

“Warfare, in general, and air warfare, in particular, is undergoing a dramatic change rapidly due to advanced technologies. Among these technologies, those with the greatest impact include Quantum, AI, Hypersonics, Stealth, Nano, Miniaturization, and Robotics. AI has a big potential for warfare applications,” Air Marshal Anil Khosla (Retd.), Vice Chief of the Air Staff (VCAS) of the Indian Air Force, told the EurAsian Times.

 

General Dynamics X-62 VISTA US Skyborg

After recently receiving a new look and modifications at the Ogden Air Logistics Complex, the NF-16D, known as VISTA (Variable stability In-flight Test Aircraft), they departed Hill Air Force Base, Utah, on Jan 30, 2019. This aircraft is the only one of its kind in the world and is the flagship of the United States Air Force Test Pilot School. This F-16 has been highly modified, allowing pilots to change the aircraft flight characteristics and stability to mimic that of other aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo by Alex R. Lloyd).

 

US Armament with AI

In a bold move, the US has embarked on an ambitious endeavour dubbed ‘Replicator,’ designed to rapidly bolster its capabilities in the face of escalating competition, particularly from the People’s Republic of China.

The heart of Replicator lies in swiftly deploying thousands of autonomous systems, harnessing the power of AI, robotics, and cutting-edge technology. With a staggering budget of US$1 billion allocated by the Department of Defence, the Replicator program aims to construct a formidable fleet of compact, weaponised autonomous vehicles.

The Pentagon is abuzz with over 800 active military AI projects, from streamlining processes and evaluating threats to enhancing battlefield decision-making. Notable initiatives include the innovative “Loyal Wingman” program and the deployment of swarm drones like the formidable V-BAT aerial drone.

“The current trend in air combat platforms involves AI-based unmanned aircraft collaborating with manned aircraft, harnessing both advantages. This strategy is dubbed the ‘Loyal Wingman Concept.’ I call it the ‘Mother Goose Concept.’ All sixth-generation platform programs are striving toward this objective,” remarked Air Marshal Anil Khosla.

In a ground-breaking demonstration of its capabilities, the US Naval Forces Central Command’s (NAVCENT) Task Force 59 recently showcased its prowess by executing a successful attack on a simulated enemy target using live rockets, all orchestrated by an unmanned vessel. Experimental submarines, tanks, and ships have already been outfitted with AI capabilities to navigate and engage targets autonomously.

Furthermore, the US military has openly acknowledged its utilisation of AI and machine learning algorithms to identify potential targets for airstrikes in conflict zones such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. These sophisticated algorithms, developed under Project Maven—a collaborative effort between Google and the Pentagon—are carefully supervised by human operators to ensure precision and ethical use in target selection processes.

 

China’s Investment in AI

While the world closely monitored China’s economic resurgence and geopolitical ambitions, a powerful undercurrent has been gathering force – a concerted national drive to harness artificial intelligence as a potent force multiplier across all war-fighting domains.

Beijing has supercharged investments in robotics, swarming technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning’s myriad militant applications.

Their landmark 2017 “New Generation AI Development Plan” plainly prioritises unmanned combat systems, and other advanced military innovations take centre stage, reflecting China’s strategic prioritisation of AI technologies.

According to a report titled ‘AI Weapons in China’s Military Innovation’ by Global China, Chinese military experts and strategists from institutions like the PLA’s Academy of Military Science, National Defence University, and the National University of Defence Technology foresee a future where AI and intelligent weaponry will assume increasingly pivotal roles, potentially even tipping the scales in future conflicts.

 

China’s Challenges US

China is now challenging its long-standing US dominance in aerial combat platforms as it surges ahead in investment, research, and development (R&D) across several ground-breaking technologies.

While US technology has evolved and been proven over the years, Chinese advancements are claimed and not demonstrated or proven. Notwithstanding, these claims cannot be taken lightly, according to Anil Khosla.

Furthermore, Anil Khosla emphasises that maintaining a lead in the technological race revolves around the defence market. Securing a foothold in the defence market holds immense appeal for economic and strategic considerations. On the financial front, it serves as a vital revenue stream and contributes to job creation. Strategically, it reduces the dependency of importing nations on external sources.

As this AI arms race intensifies, extending beyond just aviation to permeate all domains of warfare, the nation that unlocks the secret of harmonising machine intelligence with human cognition could seize an extraordinary strategic advantage. The theatre may be the skies, but the stakes could hardly be higher.

 

Keeping the Atomic Finger off AI Trigger

Back in the Cold War days, all eyes were on the nuclear arms race, a chilling competition that morphed into today’s reality of mass destruction weapon systems on the battlefield.

Fast forward to now, and the numbers are staggering: a whopping 12,500 nuclear warheads, with Russia and the US dominating possession, claiming nearly 90% of this terrifying arsenal.

A recent report from the Arms Control Association reveals the extent of nuclear stockpiles: Russia leads with 5,889 warheads, trailed closely by the US with 5,244, and China with 410.

Moreover, beyond the five permanent Security Council members—US, China, France, Russia, and the UK—other nations recognised under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty as nuclear-capable include Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

In a recent statement, US State Department arms control official Paul Dean underscored the importance of human control over nuclear decisions, emphasising that the US has unequivocally committed to ensuring that only human beings have the authority to deploy nuclear weapons.

This sentiment is echoed by the UK and France, who have pledged to keep nuclear control firmly in human hands, shunning the involvement of AI. Furthermore, the US has urged China and Russia to follow suit, urging them to prioritise human oversight in utilising these potent weapons rather than entrusting such decisions to artificial intelligence.

 

The AI Conundrum

In conclusion, integrating AI into military systems represents a significant leap forward in modern warfare. As highlighted by Anil Khosla, within novel systems that amalgamate multiple sensors and weapon systems into a unified framework. These systems must sift through vast amounts of data for analysis.

The fusion of AI and quantum computing enables this process to occur rapidly. When combined with miniaturisation, one obtains an optimal system for airborne platforms—small and lightweight yet possessing high computing power and speed. Integrating these technologies would give decision-makers swift decision-making tools, such as decision support systems and ‘what if’ option tools.

However, it is crucial to acknowledge AI’s inherent limitations, particularly in its current state. While AI excels at executing mundane tasks and analysing data patterns, its ability to make nuanced decisions remains questionable. This raises ethical and practical concerns, especially concerning lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs) equipped with AI.

The proliferation of LAWs, empowered by AI, sparks heated debates among experts, touching upon legality, ethics, and the potential for unintended consequences. While AI-enhanced drones may enhance military capabilities, they also introduce new risks and challenges that must be carefully considered.

As we navigate this AI conundrum, it is imperative to approach the integration of AI into military systems with caution and foresight. By striking a balance between technological advancement and ethical considerations, we can harness the potential of AI to enhance military capabilities while mitigating risks and safeguarding human interests. We can responsibly navigate AI’s complexities in modern warfare through thoughtful deliberation and collaboration.

 

My Comments on the subject:-

1. Warfare in general and air warfare in particular is undergoing a dramatic change rapidly due to advanced technologies.

2. Technologies with maximum effect are Quantum, AI, Hypersonics, Stealth, Nano, Miniaturisation, Robotics, etc.

3. AI has a big potential for warfare applications.

4. Firstly in unmanned autonomous platforms.

5. Unmanned platforms (Drones in airwarfare) are changing the air warfare in a revolutionary manner.

6. Second potential is in new systems which have multiple sensors and weapon systems integrated together. These systems have to analyse a large volume of data. AI and quantum computing combination can do that at a rapid rate. Couple them with miniaturisation and one gets an ideal system for Airborne platform (Small, light, high computing power and high computing speed).

7. The combination of these technologies would would provide the decision makers with quick decision making tools like decision support systems and what if option tools.

8. USA has been dominating the skies with creation of aerial combat platforms with advanced technology.

9. Now China is challenging their monopoly in this field as China is ahead in investment and R&D in some of these path breaking technologies.

10. USA is trying to retain it’s leadership position, while China is trying to catch up or race ahead.

11. USA technology has evolved and proven over the years. Chinese advancements are claimed and not demonstrated or proven. Not withstanding, these claims cannot be taken lightly.

12. Another reason for staying ahead in the technology race is the defence market. Capturing the defence market is highly desirable due to economic reasons (revenue source and job creation) and Strategic reasons (Dependency of importing countries).

13. The current trend in the air combat platforms is for AI based unmanned aircraft to work along with manned aircraft, reaping the benefits of both. It is called “Loyal Wingman Concept”. I call it mother goose Concept. All sixth generation platform programs are working towards it.

14. The trend of air warfare is towards “No contact warfare”, i.e. with long range vectors and unmanned aerial platforms.

15. In future the air wars would be fought by AI based unmanned platforms with smart weapons with minimal human intervention. – Scary thought.

 

Link to the Article at EurAsian Times:-

Battle Of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set To ‘Challenge’ US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With “Smart Air Combat AI”

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

462: Contribution to Chanakya Forum

 

 

Please click on the links to read the articles.

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INDIA’s PREPAREDNESS FOR DRONE WARFARE

C 295 AIRCRAFT INDUCTION INTO IAF: CAPABILITY ENHANCEMENT AND ADVANTAGES

PM Modi’s Visit To USA: Deal Or No Deal For Fighter Aircraft And Aero-Engines?

Understanding Manipur Dynamics

IAF’s Fighter Squadron Drawdown And The Mitigation Plan

One Year Into The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Many Questions And Few Lessons

Decoding US Presence At Aero India 2023: Business Or Signalling

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

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