TRANSPARENCY IN DEFENCE AND INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES

 

Transparency in Defence and Intelligence Agencies

 

This article written by Air Marshal PK Dey (Retd) was published in ‘The Hindu’, on 31st October 2000.

 

 

Excerpts.

TRANSPARENCY, ACCOUNTABILITY and the right to information have become prominent buzzwords and phrases in the lexicon of those involved in the struggle to achieve these targets in the functioning of government in all areas of the globe – but most of all in developing countries like India, which have a democratic structure on paper but are still far from providing their peoples with the tools to ensure that the government functions primarily in the interests of those that it represents. Secrecy in government functioning is one of the most significant and potent weapons available to those in power, not merely to cover up corruption and inefficiency but to virtually perpetuate deliberate misdeeds that suit the convenience of all those who profit from them.

 

Recent years have seen the emergence of several movements both at the Centre and in the States that have sought to introduce legislation enabling the commoner to demand and receive an accounting from the government for its actions. This accounting would satisfy him that scarce resources are being gainfully utilised and that elected representatives and government officials function with the people’s interests at heart. Notably, there has been significant and heartening progress in demanding transparency in national defence and associated fields of intelligence and security. However, there is still a long way to go. The myth that anything related to the “defence of the nation” must be kept under wraps to ensure that the `enemy’ is kept in the dark has taken such deep roots in the mind of the public that the rising clamour for transparency and accountability in government functioning appears to have excluded this vital sector from its purview. Even the press, which plays such a crucial role in educating the public about the deeds and misdeeds of the government, continues to treat `defence’ as a `holy cow’ that it would be unpatriotic to question no matter what it does!

 

The people seem to have lost sight that their security and defence are at stake. It goes without any question, therefore, that they must not merely be assured but know enough to be sure and confident that all that can reasonably be done for the safety and security of the nation is being done. They must understand that when a war is fought, it has genuinely been necessary and unavoidable. That lives have not been lost, families destroyed, and the economy put at risk without justification. They must know, and not just be told, that the big chunk of the budget that goes into defence expenditure at the cost of desperately needed resources for education, healthcare, housing, nutrition for children and all other elements of social security that this country lacks, is essential and well spent. This can only be possible if the people become more knowledgeable and involved in issues relating to defence, and there is a constant process of “informed debate” involving not just the uniformed services and government officials but also interested members of the public, academics, and the corporate sector.

 

Blanket Exemptions.  

 

In the recently tabled Freedom of Information Bill in Parliament, under Section 8, there are provisions for constitutionally accepted national security and international relations exemptions. The proposed Bill also makes blanket exemptions for specific security and intelligence agencies. No provision of the Act will apply to those Central and State security and intelligence agencies notified in the schedule under Section 16 of the Act. There is a danger to our security if we treat certain agencies as completely taboo and don’t separate those areas and activities that can and should be made transparent from those that require the protection of secrecy.

 

In discussing transparency in defence, we must first understand which aspects of defence functioning must be secret and for how long. The only critical areas relate to operational plans, strategy and tactics. Numerical strengths, peacetime locations of military formations, peacetime costs of training, attrition and replacement are all typical examples of what is currently treated as secret or confidential or, at the very least, restricted – and God alone can help an erring individual from the clutches of the nearly 70-year-old Official Secrets Act if he or she can take a quick snapshot of an airfield or even, believe it or not, a culvert on a public road! Naturally, in times of conflict or situations of great tension immediately preceding a potential conflict, any information or activity that might affect the outcome would have to be treated as sensitive, so a different set of rules would have to apply. However, in normal peace conditions, there is no requirement for the laws of secrecy and confidentiality to vary from those that would apply in other government departments, barring anything related to operational plans, strategies and tactics.

 

Brutally Honest Appraisal

 

The second issue of vital importance is that, even when secrets are justified and necessary at a particular point, secrecy cannot apply forever. Every experience teaches us something, and there is no doubt that those who do not learn from past mistakes are bound to repeat them. War is one of the most traumatic experiences, and all those involved in the defence of a nation must study all conflicts, particularly those that one’s own country has been involved in. This appraisal needs to be brutally honest, and if, in the process, failures and shortcomings become apparent at any level, urgent steps have to be taken to ensure they are never repeated. And if it shows the government or any individual in a poor light, so be it – for the likely penalty for a cover-up may prove unacceptably heavy in the future. Unfortunately, so far in modern India, while there has been no shortage of enquiry committees after every war/conflict with the avowed aim of learning lessons, the governments of the day have been more concerned with protecting the `tails’ of those in authority than pinpointing the real reasons for not just the setbacks encountered but, more important, why the conflict was allowed to develop at all. It, therefore, follows that unless making a `secret’ report public after a reasonable period continues to be a genuine threat to national as different from personal interest, it must be declassified – the sooner, the better, and in any case, not later than 20 years after the event.

 

Informed Debate

 

 What is to be done? The answer is simple – ask questions and start a nationwide informed debate on critical defence-related issues. Make the government participate and respond in a manner that satisfies the public. Many issues fit an informed, constructive discussion to ensure that the money, resources, and lives expended in our nation’s defence are worth the sacrifice.

 

A few questions need adequate answers, and a critical appraisal and debate by a range of military science experts and students who are not limited to a few select members of the `establishment’ are needed. We talk openly and extensively about our strategic need to have a significant say in controlling and exploiting the Indian Ocean. Do we know the extent of effort and expenditure involved in achieving even a fraction of that dream? Can we do it with two, three, or four carriers? Is this an achievable objective that should be pursued? What progress has been made towards reorganising the Ministry of Defence to create a more cohesive joint service structure with a more excellent and effective representation of serving military officers in the decision-making processes than currently exists?

 

Defence Deals

 

Controversies about kickbacks and the pursuit of shady defence deals involving large sums of money have, if anything, increased since the government introduced its policy of `no middlemen or agents’ in such contracts. Sales of defence equipment invariably mean massive gains to the suppliers since profit margins in such sales are very high. Manufacturers and suppliers are, therefore, ever ready to offer sweeteners or kickbacks to the buyer (with the bidding on the amounts by competing suppliers rising in direct proportion to the deal’s value). While there is no doubt that the negotiations for any contract, defence or otherwise, have to be confidential, there is an urgent need for ensuring (and satisfying the public) that laid-down procedures for evaluation and selection are strictly adhered to, and records maintained and available for later scrutiny when the need for confidentiality no longer exists. The Comptroller and Auditor General of India devotes an independent volume in his Annual Audit report to critically analyse and discuss the financial transactions in the defence establishments, pointing to various instances of mismanagement of finances, mainly in defence purchases worth many crores of rupees. Though the amounts shown as ill-spent or wasted are massive, a single example of responsibility has not been fixed for these severe financial aberrations. There is an urgent need for an informed debate on restoring accountability regarding the mismanagement of finances in defence establishments, especially when funds are scarce and budget allotments are meagre regarding modernisation.

 

Section 16 of the draft Freedom of Information Bill, 2000, which excludes several intelligence and security organisations at Central and State levels from the ambit of the Act, also needs to be re-examined and revised. There can be no doubt that these organisations cannot operate effectively without the protection of secrecy. Yet total secrecy in perpetuity is extremely dangerous and will eventually prove counterproductive or harmful to the national interest. The public needs to be satisfied that the government (for whom these agencies work) can monitor their activities in a manner that makes certain that they can never work in a non-accountable manner.  The procedures to be adopted to ensure this need not be secret. This, again, is a subject fit for a mature, informed debate.

 

Comments

 

    • The suggestions listed in the paper, such as independent debates, no blanket exemptions, review of secrecy laws, honest appraisal, informed debate and transparency in defence deals, etc., are still valid.
    • Over the years, several measures have been instituted to bring transparency and accountability.
    • The Defence Procurement Procedure document (DPP) has been revised several times.
    • Online grievance redressal mechanisms have been set up.
    • CAG audits are being carried out, and reports are being published.
    • Parliamentary oversights are being exercised through the Parliamentary Committee on Defence.
    • The whistle-blower protection act has been introduced.
    • All these measures have brought in some amount of transparency and accountability, but still, there is scope for further improvement.

 

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SHUBHANGI’S COLUMN:”Battle of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set to Challenge US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With Smart Air Combat AI” 

 

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

Shubhangi Palve is a Defence & Aerospace journalist currently associated with EurAsian Times. Prior to this role, she worked as a staff writer at ET Prime, focusing on defence strategies and the defence sector from a financial perspective. She has more than 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.

 

Her article on

“Battle of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set to Challenge US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With Smart Air Combat AI” 

was published on 20 May 2024 on “The EurAsian Times”.

 

(Besides the two quotes, the views of the author are her own)

 

“Battle of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set to Challenge US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With Smart Air Combat AI” 

 

Picture this: An unmanned combat air squadron launches into hostile skies, guided not by human pilots but by the cold calculus of artificial intelligence. With lightning speed, the AI war manager assesses threats, devises intricate battle plans, and unleashes a blistering onslaught of precision strikes against enemy strongholds. Each manoeuvre executes with machine perfection as the AI mastermind adapts seamlessly to the ever-shifting tides of aerial combat.

But hold on, this isn’t Hollywood fiction…

Welcome to the new age of hybrid airpower!

 

The Race for AI Supremacy Takes To the Skies

In the high-stakes game of military one-upmanship, a new battlefront has emerged – the fusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) with aerial combat systems.

China claims to have seized a potential edge, developing an “intelligent air combat AI” capable of making split-second tactical decisions and explaining its reasoning to human partners using an intelligent discourse of data visualisations and natural language.

This shatters the long-standing “black box” quandary that has handcuffed militaries – the inability of inscrutable AI systems to articulate the rationale behind their choices. Chinese researchers claim that their ground-breaking AI can engage in intelligent discourse, using words, data visualisations, and charts to illuminate why it issues specific flight instructions.

The Profound implications? An AI co-pilot can forge an unprecedented hybrid of linguistics between the domains of machine logic and human contextual intellect. Moreover, the Chinese team audaciously boasts that this symbiotic melding of abilities can achieve a staggering near-100% win rate in simulated aerial combat scenarios.

Meanwhile, the United States still grapples with the opaqueness of current AI architectures, a situation that underscores the importance of transparency and explainability in AI-driven systems. The US Air Force Secretary recently experienced the limitations of a “still-learning” AI controlling his F-16 flight, and its decision-making processes during potential weapon deployments remain obfuscated.

“Warfare, in general, and air warfare, in particular, is undergoing a dramatic change rapidly due to advanced technologies. Among these technologies, those with the greatest impact include Quantum, AI, Hypersonics, Stealth, Nano, Miniaturization, and Robotics. AI has a big potential for warfare applications,” Air Marshal Anil Khosla (Retd.), Vice Chief of the Air Staff (VCAS) of the Indian Air Force, told the EurAsian Times.

 

General Dynamics X-62 VISTA US Skyborg

After recently receiving a new look and modifications at the Ogden Air Logistics Complex, the NF-16D, known as VISTA (Variable stability In-flight Test Aircraft), they departed Hill Air Force Base, Utah, on Jan 30, 2019. This aircraft is the only one of its kind in the world and is the flagship of the United States Air Force Test Pilot School. This F-16 has been highly modified, allowing pilots to change the aircraft flight characteristics and stability to mimic that of other aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo by Alex R. Lloyd).

 

US Armament with AI

In a bold move, the US has embarked on an ambitious endeavour dubbed ‘Replicator,’ designed to rapidly bolster its capabilities in the face of escalating competition, particularly from the People’s Republic of China.

The heart of Replicator lies in swiftly deploying thousands of autonomous systems, harnessing the power of AI, robotics, and cutting-edge technology. With a staggering budget of US$1 billion allocated by the Department of Defence, the Replicator program aims to construct a formidable fleet of compact, weaponised autonomous vehicles.

The Pentagon is abuzz with over 800 active military AI projects, from streamlining processes and evaluating threats to enhancing battlefield decision-making. Notable initiatives include the innovative “Loyal Wingman” program and the deployment of swarm drones like the formidable V-BAT aerial drone.

“The current trend in air combat platforms involves AI-based unmanned aircraft collaborating with manned aircraft, harnessing both advantages. This strategy is dubbed the ‘Loyal Wingman Concept.’ I call it the ‘Mother Goose Concept.’ All sixth-generation platform programs are striving toward this objective,” remarked Air Marshal Anil Khosla.

In a ground-breaking demonstration of its capabilities, the US Naval Forces Central Command’s (NAVCENT) Task Force 59 recently showcased its prowess by executing a successful attack on a simulated enemy target using live rockets, all orchestrated by an unmanned vessel. Experimental submarines, tanks, and ships have already been outfitted with AI capabilities to navigate and engage targets autonomously.

Furthermore, the US military has openly acknowledged its utilisation of AI and machine learning algorithms to identify potential targets for airstrikes in conflict zones such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. These sophisticated algorithms, developed under Project Maven—a collaborative effort between Google and the Pentagon—are carefully supervised by human operators to ensure precision and ethical use in target selection processes.

 

China’s Investment in AI

While the world closely monitored China’s economic resurgence and geopolitical ambitions, a powerful undercurrent has been gathering force – a concerted national drive to harness artificial intelligence as a potent force multiplier across all war-fighting domains.

Beijing has supercharged investments in robotics, swarming technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning’s myriad militant applications.

Their landmark 2017 “New Generation AI Development Plan” plainly prioritises unmanned combat systems, and other advanced military innovations take centre stage, reflecting China’s strategic prioritisation of AI technologies.

According to a report titled ‘AI Weapons in China’s Military Innovation’ by Global China, Chinese military experts and strategists from institutions like the PLA’s Academy of Military Science, National Defence University, and the National University of Defence Technology foresee a future where AI and intelligent weaponry will assume increasingly pivotal roles, potentially even tipping the scales in future conflicts.

 

China’s Challenges US

China is now challenging its long-standing US dominance in aerial combat platforms as it surges ahead in investment, research, and development (R&D) across several ground-breaking technologies.

While US technology has evolved and been proven over the years, Chinese advancements are claimed and not demonstrated or proven. Notwithstanding, these claims cannot be taken lightly, according to Anil Khosla.

Furthermore, Anil Khosla emphasises that maintaining a lead in the technological race revolves around the defence market. Securing a foothold in the defence market holds immense appeal for economic and strategic considerations. On the financial front, it serves as a vital revenue stream and contributes to job creation. Strategically, it reduces the dependency of importing nations on external sources.

As this AI arms race intensifies, extending beyond just aviation to permeate all domains of warfare, the nation that unlocks the secret of harmonising machine intelligence with human cognition could seize an extraordinary strategic advantage. The theatre may be the skies, but the stakes could hardly be higher.

 

Keeping the Atomic Finger off AI Trigger

Back in the Cold War days, all eyes were on the nuclear arms race, a chilling competition that morphed into today’s reality of mass destruction weapon systems on the battlefield.

Fast forward to now, and the numbers are staggering: a whopping 12,500 nuclear warheads, with Russia and the US dominating possession, claiming nearly 90% of this terrifying arsenal.

A recent report from the Arms Control Association reveals the extent of nuclear stockpiles: Russia leads with 5,889 warheads, trailed closely by the US with 5,244, and China with 410.

Moreover, beyond the five permanent Security Council members—US, China, France, Russia, and the UK—other nations recognised under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty as nuclear-capable include Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.

In a recent statement, US State Department arms control official Paul Dean underscored the importance of human control over nuclear decisions, emphasising that the US has unequivocally committed to ensuring that only human beings have the authority to deploy nuclear weapons.

This sentiment is echoed by the UK and France, who have pledged to keep nuclear control firmly in human hands, shunning the involvement of AI. Furthermore, the US has urged China and Russia to follow suit, urging them to prioritise human oversight in utilising these potent weapons rather than entrusting such decisions to artificial intelligence.

 

The AI Conundrum

In conclusion, integrating AI into military systems represents a significant leap forward in modern warfare. As highlighted by Anil Khosla, within novel systems that amalgamate multiple sensors and weapon systems into a unified framework. These systems must sift through vast amounts of data for analysis.

The fusion of AI and quantum computing enables this process to occur rapidly. When combined with miniaturisation, one obtains an optimal system for airborne platforms—small and lightweight yet possessing high computing power and speed. Integrating these technologies would give decision-makers swift decision-making tools, such as decision support systems and ‘what if’ option tools.

However, it is crucial to acknowledge AI’s inherent limitations, particularly in its current state. While AI excels at executing mundane tasks and analysing data patterns, its ability to make nuanced decisions remains questionable. This raises ethical and practical concerns, especially concerning lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs) equipped with AI.

The proliferation of LAWs, empowered by AI, sparks heated debates among experts, touching upon legality, ethics, and the potential for unintended consequences. While AI-enhanced drones may enhance military capabilities, they also introduce new risks and challenges that must be carefully considered.

As we navigate this AI conundrum, it is imperative to approach the integration of AI into military systems with caution and foresight. By striking a balance between technological advancement and ethical considerations, we can harness the potential of AI to enhance military capabilities while mitigating risks and safeguarding human interests. We can responsibly navigate AI’s complexities in modern warfare through thoughtful deliberation and collaboration.

 

My Comments on the subject:-

1. Warfare in general and air warfare in particular is undergoing a dramatic change rapidly due to advanced technologies.

2. Technologies with maximum effect are Quantum, AI, Hypersonics, Stealth, Nano, Miniaturisation, Robotics, etc.

3. AI has a big potential for warfare applications.

4. Firstly in unmanned autonomous platforms.

5. Unmanned platforms (Drones in airwarfare) are changing the air warfare in a revolutionary manner.

6. Second potential is in new systems which have multiple sensors and weapon systems integrated together. These systems have to analyse a large volume of data. AI and quantum computing combination can do that at a rapid rate. Couple them with miniaturisation and one gets an ideal system for Airborne platform (Small, light, high computing power and high computing speed).

7. The combination of these technologies would would provide the decision makers with quick decision making tools like decision support systems and what if option tools.

8. USA has been dominating the skies with creation of aerial combat platforms with advanced technology.

9. Now China is challenging their monopoly in this field as China is ahead in investment and R&D in some of these path breaking technologies.

10. USA is trying to retain it’s leadership position, while China is trying to catch up or race ahead.

11. USA technology has evolved and proven over the years. Chinese advancements are claimed and not demonstrated or proven. Not withstanding, these claims cannot be taken lightly.

12. Another reason for staying ahead in the technology race is the defence market. Capturing the defence market is highly desirable due to economic reasons (revenue source and job creation) and Strategic reasons (Dependency of importing countries).

13. The current trend in the air combat platforms is for AI based unmanned aircraft to work along with manned aircraft, reaping the benefits of both. It is called “Loyal Wingman Concept”. I call it mother goose Concept. All sixth generation platform programs are working towards it.

14. The trend of air warfare is towards “No contact warfare”, i.e. with long range vectors and unmanned aerial platforms.

15. In future the air wars would be fought by AI based unmanned platforms with smart weapons with minimal human intervention. – Scary thought.

 

Link to the Article at EurAsian Times:-

Battle Of A.I Fighter Jets: China Set To ‘Challenge’ US Air Force In Aerial Warfare With “Smart Air Combat AI”

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome.

 

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

ALL ABOUT AIRPOWER

 

 

Articles

 

Airpower and war endurance in the Indian context.

Article published in CLAWS Journal.

https://55nda.com/blogs/anil-khosla/2024/02/16/air-power-and-war-endurance-in-indian-context/

 

(Please click on the links for access)

 

Airpower in Grey Zone.

Article published in USI Journal.

https://55nda.com/blogs/anil-khosla/2021/07/26/airpower-in-grey-zone-my-article-in-usi-journal/

 

Air Power in Indian Context.

Article published in Destination India.

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Aerospace Power Strategies to Deal with Multiple Threats with Limited Resources.

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Classifications of Fighter Aircraft into Generations.

Article published on Indus International Research Foundation Website (IIRF).

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Emerging Technologies and Air Defence.

Chapter in the book “Airpower and Emerging Technologies”, published by the Center for Airpower Studies (CAPS)

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Articles Coming Up:-

“Genesis of Airpower Theories and their Relevance Today”.

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“Combat Aviation, Most Desirable, Least Understood”.

Being published in the IIRF (Indus International Research Center) year book 2024.

Video Talks and Podcasts

 

Airpower in counter-terrorism operations.

Talk at Indic Research Forum.

https://55nda.com/blogs/anil-khosla/2022/08/20/air-power-in-counter-terrorism-ops-balakot-strike/

 

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Talk on “Def Talks”.

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Technology & Air Warfare.

Podcast Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF).

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Use of Airpower in NWNP Scenario.

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Talk on “Def Talks”.

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(Candid and to the Point – काम की बात )

 

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Air Power Theorists.

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Global Air Power Rankings -2024.

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Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

644
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Disclaimer:

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