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575: BOOK REVIEW: 7 SECONDS TO DIE

 

 

 

BOOK REVIEW: 7 SECONDS TO DIE

 

BY JOHN C. ANTAL

 

Review by: Air Marshal Anil Khosla (Retd) PVSM, AVSM, VM

Former Vice Chief of Air Staff, Indian Air Force.

 

 

John C. Antal’s 7 Seconds to Die offers a compelling and detailed analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020), a conflict that showcased the decisive role of modern military technologies, particularly drones and artificial intelligence. This book transcends being a mere war chronicle; it is a profound exploration of how technological advancements reshape 21st-century military strategies. Antal’s approach, combining vivid storytelling with rigorous military analysis, makes this work indispensable for military professionals, strategists, and anyone interested in the future of warfare.

 

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Though deeply rooted in historical and ethnic tensions, this war became a showcase for implementing cutting-edge technologies in combat. Azerbaijan, backed by Turkish military technology and Israeli-made drones, demonstrated a level of precision, speed, and lethality that overwhelmed Armenian forces. Antal contextualises the war within the broader framework of global military trends, emphasising that this was not just a regional conflict but a harbinger of future warfare. The title, 7 Seconds to Die, refers to the average time Armenian soldiers had to react once a drone detected their position. This chilling statistic underscores the deadly efficiency of unmanned systems.

 

Antal positions the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War as a critical case study in the ongoing Revolution in Military Affairs. He argues that integrating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), loitering munitions, and advanced surveillance systems signifies a paradigm shift in combat operations. The book methodically details how Azerbaijan utilised these technologies to achieve information dominance, disrupt enemy supply lines, and conduct precision strikes with minimal human risk. Antal’s narrative is filled with examples of this technological edge. For instance, Azerbaijan’s use of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli Harop loitering munitions not only neutralised Armenian air defences but also demoralised their troops. These systems enabled Azerbaijan to conduct a “kill chain”—identifying, targeting, and neutralising enemies—in seconds.

 

One of the book’s most striking insights is how technology levelled the playing field between two unevenly matched nations. Despite its superior terrain and entrenched positions, Armenia was unable to counter Azerbaijan’s technological superiority. Antal describes this as a shift from traditional measures of military strength—numbers, firepower, and fortifications—to a new era where speed, data, and adaptability are decisive. The author provides a nuanced analysis of the asymmetry created by drones. He explains that these technologies are not merely force multipliers; they are force disruptors. Traditional tactics, such as the use of trenches, tanks, and static artillery, became liabilities under constant drone surveillance.

 

Another profound theme in 7 Seconds to Die is the psychological toll of drone warfare. Antal vividly describes how Armenian soldiers, constantly under threat from an invisible and omnipresent enemy, experienced fear, confusion, and helplessness. This psychological dimension, he argues, is as significant as the physical destruction caused by drones. Antal also explores the implications of this psychological warfare for global militaries. The fear of being watched and targeted in real-time may fundamentally change the nature of combat, making it more about outwitting algorithms and less about confrontation.

 

Antal’s analysis extends beyond the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War to extract lessons for militaries worldwide. He emphasises the need for nations to adapt to this new reality, where traditional doctrines may no longer apply. His key recommendations include investing in counter-drone technologies, training soldiers to operate in environments dominated by UAVs, and developing doctrines prioritising speed, flexibility, and decentralisation. The book also raises critical ethical and strategic questions. How do nations balance using autonomous systems with the principles of humanitarian law? What happens when such technologies fall into the hands of non-state actors or rogue states? These are challenges that the global military community must address as the era of drone warfare matures.

 

Antal’s writing is both accessible and authoritative. He balances technical detail and engaging prose, making complex military concepts understandable to a broad audience. The book is well-structured, with each chapter building logically on the previous one. Antal’s use of maps, diagrams, and first-hand accounts enhances the reader’s understanding of the conflict’s dynamics. Moreover, the book’s pacing mirrors the rapid tempo of the war itself. Antal captures the urgency and unpredictability of modern combat, immersing the reader in the battlefield’s chaos while maintaining analytical clarity.

 

While 7 Seconds to Die is a ground-breaking analysis, it has shortcomings. The book is heavily focused on Azerbaijan’s success, sometimes at the expense of a more balanced view of Armenia’s strategies and failures. A deeper exploration of Armenia’s countermeasures (or lack thereof) would have provided a fuller picture of the conflict. Additionally, while the book excels in describing the tactical and operational implications of drone warfare, its treatment of the broader geopolitical consequences is relatively brief. For instance, how might the proliferation of such technologies affect regional stability in the South Caucasus? These questions deserve more attention.

 

Beyond its analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, 7Seconds to Die is a wake-up call for nations and militaries worldwide. The book highlights the growing accessibility of advanced military technologies, raising concerns about democratising lethality. As Antal notes, the cost of entry for drone warfare is relatively low, meaning that even smaller nations or non-state actors can achieve disproportionate effects. The book also underscores the need for robust international norms and agreements to regulate the use of such technologies. Without clear rules, the risk of escalation, misuse, and collateral damage increases significantly.

 

7 Seconds to Die is a landmark work that captures the essence of 21st-century warfare. John C. Antal’s meticulous analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War offers valuable lessons for military professionals, policymakers, and scholars. The book is a sobering reminder that the future of warfare will be dominated by speed, precision, and technological ingenuity. While some gaps remain in its geopolitical analysis, Antal’s work is a testament to technology’s transformative power in shaping the battlefield. 7 Seconds to Die is an essential read for anyone seeking to understand the future of military conflict.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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574: BOOK REVIEW: Pakistan – The Balochistan Conundrum, By Tilak Devasher

 

 

Review by: Air Marshal Anil Khosla (Retd) PVSM, AVSM, VM

Former Vice Chief of Air Staff, Indian Air Force.

 

Pakistan: The Balochistan Conundrum by Tilak Devasher is a comprehensive, meticulously researched examination of one of Pakistan’s most complex and troubled regions. As a former Indian civil servant with years of experience analysing Pakistan’s internal and external affairs, Devasher offers a deep dive into Balochistan’s conflicts’ historical, political, and socioeconomic underpinnings. He presents a multidimensional narrative that explores the impact of colonial history, resource distribution, ethnic and cultural tensions, and geopolitical influences on Balochistan’s struggle for autonomy within Pakistan.

 

At the heart of the book lies the question: what makes Balochistan so difficult to integrate fully into Pakistan? Devasher’s analysis identifies factors that have driven Balochistan’s longstanding conflicts and challenges. The province’s vast resources, geostrategic location, and distinct ethnic identity make it both a prized possession and a perpetual problem for Pakistan’s federal government. Devasher sheds light on the complex relationship between the Pakistani state and Balochistan, often marked by mistrust, resentment, and recurring conflict. His work argues that Islamabad’s policies toward the province have remained largely focused on control rather than integration, a stance that has left Balochistan in perpetual marginalisation.

 

Devasher begins by tracing the origins of Balochistan’s discontent back to the time of British colonial rule. As the British expanded their influence in the region, they established an essentially exploitative relationship with Balochistan, incorporating the region into their empire while suppressing local political structures. This legacy of exploitation and suppression left the Baloch people with an enduring distrust of centralised rule, a sentiment that has only deepened under Pakistan’s federal government.

 

Post-independence, Pakistan adopted a similar approach to Balochistan, perceiving it as a remote, resource-rich frontier rather than an integrated part of the country. According to Devasher, the forced accession of the princely state of Kalat in 1948 laid the foundation for the ongoing resistance movements in Balochistan. The book provides a detailed account of the four main insurgencies that have taken place in Balochistan since Pakistan’s creation, underscoring how each conflict has only worsened the province’s resentment towards Islamabad. Devasher’s narration explains how Pakistan’s failure to address the region’s core issues—economic deprivation, lack of political representation, and cultural autonomy—has kept the fires of rebellion alive for decades.

 

Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest but least developed province, and Devasher strongly argues that the province’s socioeconomic plight is at the core of its grievances. Despite being rich in natural gas, coal, copper, and gold, most of Balochistan’s population remains impoverished and lacks access to primary education, healthcare, and infrastructure. The exploitation of these resources has been another source of discontent, as Islamabad reaps the economic benefits while Balochistan’s people continue to live in poverty. Devasher’s work highlights the deep disparities in resource distribution, pointing out that most of the profits generated from the province’s resources go to the central government rather than the local population. This economic exclusion only deepened feelings of alienation among the Baloch people. The book also addresses the question of royalties, noting that the revenues from natural gas production, for instance, rarely benefit the people of Balochistan themselves. In Devasher’s view, the Pakistani government’s policies of resource extraction without compensation or reinvestment are an example of economic colonialism that has further alienated the Baloch populace.

 

Devasher’s critique extends to Pakistan’s heavy reliance on military intervention to maintain control over Balochistan. Since the inception of Pakistan, the government has treated the Baloch independence movement as a national security issue rather than a political or economic one. This approach, according to Devasher, has resulted in widespread human rights abuses, including forced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and a heavy military presence that has stifled civil life in the province. He brings forth testimonies and documented evidence from various sources to illustrate the brutality of Pakistan’s military tactics, highlighting how these methods have only fuelled further resistance among the Baloch people.

 

Devasher’s exploration of human rights issues is one of the book’s most powerful sections. He discusses the “missing persons” issue in depth, referring to the thousands of Baloch activists, students, and political leaders who have allegedly been abducted or killed by state security forces. This has led to what Devasher describes as a pervasive atmosphere of fear and oppression. He further explores the militarisation of Balochistan, showing how these repressive policies have created a sense of siege among ordinary Baloch citizens. By treating Balochistan as a security problem, Devasher argues that the Pakistani government has undermined its efforts to integrate the province, instead fostering an atmosphere of anger and resentment that has only served to strengthen separatist sentiments.

 

Another crucial element of Devasher’s analysis is Balochistan’s geopolitical significance, particularly its role in Pakistan’s relationships with Afghanistan, India, and China. Devasher notes that Balochistan’s location—bordering Iran and Afghanistan and close to the Persian Gulf—makes it a strategic asset for Pakistan. However, this same strategic significance has drawn external interest, especially from India and Afghanistan, which Pakistan accuses of supporting Baloch insurgents.

 

The book also covers China’s involvement in Balochistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a major infrastructural initiative that runs through the province. Devasher describes how the CPEC project while promising to bring development, has generated concerns among the Baloch over increased military presence, displacement, and lack of economic benefits for the local population. Devasher argues that while the CPEC may bring some development, it has also intensified fears that foreign powers exploit Balochistan’s resources without fair compensation to the local population. The geostrategic context adds further complexity to the Balochistan conundrum, as external involvement in the region creates additional pressure on Pakistan’s federal government.

 

In addition to political and economic issues, Devasher dedicates part of his analysis to the cultural and ethnic identity of the Baloch people. He discusses how the Pakistani state has attempted to impose a uniform national identity, one that prioritises Islam and disregards the distinct cultural heritage of the Baloch people. This attempt to assimilate Balochistan into a homogenised national identity has only heightened the Baloch people’s desire to preserve their distinct cultural and ethnic identity, adding to their resistance to centralisation.

 

Devasher argues that Pakistan’s policies have overlooked the Baloch people’s historical sense of autonomy and pride in their cultural identity. This aspect of Baloch identity is intertwined with their demand for greater independence and self-determination. Devasher presents an in-depth look at how cultural suppression has become a symbol of the broader political and economic neglect that the Baloch people face, arguing that this cultural dimension is a crucial yet often overlooked factor in understanding Balochistan’s resistance.

 

Pakistan: The Balochistan Conundrum is a profoundly insightful and compelling account of Balochistan’s struggle within Pakistan. Devasher combines historical perspective, human rights concerns, and geopolitical analysis to deliver a balanced and thorough examination of the region’s conflicts. His findings paint a sobering picture: unless Pakistan addresses the root causes of Balochistan’s grievances, its policies may continue to fuel instability and insurgency.

 

Devasher’s work ultimately suggests that the road to peace and integration lies not in military domination but in addressing the legitimate demands of the Baloch people, particularly in terms of economic inclusion, political representation, and respect for cultural identity. This book is a must-read for scholars, policymakers, and anyone interested in South Asian geopolitics, as it offers a clear-eyed look at a region that is both critical to Pakistan’s stability and emblematic of its internal struggles.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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573: HARNESSING TECHNOLOGY FOR INNOVATIVE FLIGHT SAFETY IN MILITARY AVIATION.

 

 

Military aviation flight safety encompasses all measures taken to prevent accidents, incidents, and mishaps in military flight operations. Given the high-stakes and often complex missions conducted by military aircraft, flight safety is a critical priority, including proactive and reactive strategies to protect personnel, equipment, and mission integrity. Military aviation flight safety is a multi-layered approach involving rigorous planning, advanced technology, and a focus on human and mechanical reliability. Each layer of safety functions together to ensure the readiness, effectiveness, and safety of military flight operations, especially when missions involve elevated risks and unpredictable environments.

 

Flight Safety Measures in Military Aviation

 

Flight safety in military aviation is critical due to the high-risk environments and complex missions. Over the years, various measures have been established to enhance safety and reduce accidents. These measures address human factors and technological improvements and often involve international collaboration. Some of these are:-

 

Safety Management Systems (SMS) are proactive, systematic approaches to managing safety risks. They are structured frameworks that involve policies, procedures, and responsibilities to ensure continuous monitoring and improvement of safety practices. Integrating safety into day-to-day operations allows military aviation to identify and address risks more effectively. SMS ensures that safety is reactive and preventive, focusing on hazard identification and risk mitigation.

 

Crew Resource Management (CRM). CRM focuses on improving communication, leadership, and decision-making within a flight crew. CRM has been adapted for military use to minimise human error, a significant cause of accidents. CRM helps military pilots and aircrews work cohesively, especially in high-pressure and combat situations. Regular CRM training helps personnel recognise and mitigate potential hazards before they escalate.

 

Maintenance and Inspection Protocols. Stringent aircraft maintenance and inspection protocols are essential to prevent technical failures. Regular checks, adherence to maintenance schedules, and timely part replacement are crucial components. The military emphasises a meticulous inspection process to ensure aircraft reliability. Enhanced tracking systems and real-time data monitoring improve the maintenance process, reducing the likelihood of accidents due to equipment failure.

 

Human Factors and Ergonomics. Addressing human factors involves understanding pilots’ and aircrew’s physiological and psychological limits. Military aviation has taken measures to reduce fatigue, improve cockpit design, and provide stress management training. By designing better cockpits and introducing measures to counter fatigue and stress, the military minimises the risks associated with human performance issues. Improved ergonomics and better work-rest cycles also contribute to flight safety.

 

Flight Data Monitoring.  FDM involves collecting, analysing, and using data generated during flights to monitor safety performance and identify potential risks. Military aviation uses sophisticated data recorders to assess operational safety. This initiative allows for early identification of trends that might indicate safety issues. It also aids in post-incident analyses to improve future flight operations.

 

Night Vision and Advanced Navigation Systems. Modern military aircraft are equipped with advanced navigation aids and night vision systems. These technologies enable safer operations in low-visibility environments, reducing the risks of night-time and poor-weather flying. With advanced sensors, GPS, and infrared systems, pilots can operate with better situational awareness, reducing the likelihood of accidents.

 

Operational Risk Management (ORM). ORM is a decision-making process designed to identify, assess, and control risks systematically. Military pilots are trained to evaluate the risk factors for each mission, considering variables like weather, aircraft performance, and enemy threats. This measure ensures that every mission is carefully planned with risk considerations in mind and that steps are taken to mitigate potential hazards. By doing so, mission safety is enhanced, especially in combat zones.

 

Accident Investigation and Reporting Systems. Detailed investigations of incidents and accidents provide valuable lessons to prevent future occurrences. Military aviation has dedicated teams investigating crashes, near-misses, and other incidents. These investigations help identify root causes, whether mechanical, human error, or environmental factors, leading to actionable improvements in aircraft design, maintenance protocols, and training programs.

 

Survival Training and Equipment. In the event of an emergency or crash, military personnel are trained in survival, evasion, resistance, and escape (SERE) techniques. Aircraft also have advanced ejection seats, life-support systems, and emergency beacons. These measures improve the chances of survival in case of a crash. Well-trained aircrews are more likely to survive and recover from adverse situations, contributing to overall flight safety.

 

Simulation and Virtual Reality (VR) Training. High-fidelity flight simulators and VR technology allow military pilots to practice in a risk-free environment. Scenarios involving combat situations, emergency procedures, and extreme weather conditions can be replicated and rehearsed. Simulation training provides pilots with experience in dealing with high-risk scenarios without exposing them to actual danger. This enhances their ability to handle real-life emergencies and improves overall mission readiness.

 

International Collaboration and Data Sharing. Military aviation communities worldwide collaborate on flight safety initiatives by sharing best practices, safety data, and lessons learned from incidents. This international cooperation helps to improve global military flight safety standards. Sharing safety data between allied nations and multinational military organisations helps improve overall aviation safety and prevents the repetition of accidents across air forces.

 

Fatigue Risk Management. Military flying often involves long missions that can lead to pilot fatigue. Fatigue risk management programs monitor crew rest and ensure that pilots are not flying under physically or mentally taxing conditions. Managing fatigue reduces cognitive impairment and ensures that pilots remain fully alert, reducing the risk of accidents related to reduced reaction times and poor decision-making.

 

Use of Technology for Innovative Flight Safety Measures

 

Innovation in military flight safety plays a crucial role in enhancing the effectiveness of military operations while minimising risks to personnel and equipment. With evolving technologies, militaries worldwide have adopted cutting-edge systems and practices to ensure the safety of their aircrews and aircraft. Innovations in military flight safety have evolved to incorporate advanced technologies like AI, autonomous systems, and augmented reality, reducing the risks associated with human error and mechanical failures. These innovations ensure that military aviation remains effective and safe, enabling successful operations in increasingly complex and dangerous environments. Continuous development of these technologies will play a critical role in the future of military flying safety.

 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) for Predictive Maintenance. AI and ML algorithms analyse vast flight and maintenance data to predict when components will likely fail. This allows for proactive maintenance before a critical failure occurs. Predictive maintenance significantly reduces the chances of in-flight mechanical failures, improving aircraft availability and extending the life of critical components. By predicting issues before they arise, military forces can prevent potential accidents caused by equipment malfunction.

 

Digital Twins and Virtual Modelling. A “digital twin” is a virtual replica of an aircraft constantly updated with real-time data. This allows engineers to simulate and predict the aircraft’s performance under different conditions without risking real-life testing. Digital twins allow a better understanding of aircraft wear and tear and enable military aviation units to optimise performance and safety protocols. They also help design safer aircraft by simulating potential failure modes and improving design flaws before production.

 

Advanced Cockpit Displays and Helmet-Mounted Displays (HMDs). Modern military cockpits have advanced digital displays and HMDs that provide real-time data on flight parameters, threats, navigation, and weapons systems. Augmented reality (AR) is also integrated into these systems. These technologies enhance situational awareness by allowing pilots to receive critical flight information without diverting attention from the mission environment. Real-time data improves decision-making and reduces the risk of human error during high-pressure operations.

 

Collision Avoidance Systems (CAS) combine radar, GPS, and onboard sensors to detect nearby aircraft or obstacles. The system provides automated alerts and sometimes can take control to avoid a collision autonomously. This system drastically reduces the risk of mid-air collisions or controlled flight into terrain (CFIT). It is precious in formation flying, combat environments, and during operations in low-visibility conditions.

 

Autonomous and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and drones are increasingly being used for missions that would otherwise put human pilots at risk, such as reconnaissance in hostile areas or intelligence-gathering in dangerous environments. UAS reduces the need for human involvement in high-risk operations, enhancing safety by eliminating the risk of human casualties in dangerous missions. In addition, autonomous systems can perform tasks like mid-air refuelling or logistics delivery with minimal pilot involvement, further improving safety.

 

Next-Generation Ejection Seats. Ejection seat technology has seen significant advancements, including features like auto-ejection systems that automatically detect when an aircraft is unrecoverable and initiate the ejection process. Modern ejection seats are designed to accommodate a broader range of pilot physiques and ensure safer ejections at different altitudes and speeds. These advancements improve the chances of survival during emergencies by reducing the physical strain on pilots during ejection and increasing the precision of the ejection process in critical situations.

 

Ground Collision Avoidance Systems (GCAS). GCAS technology automatically monitors the aircraft’s altitude, speed, and trajectory, comparing it with terrain data to avoid ground collisions. If the system detects that the aircraft is about to impact the ground, it can take control and initiate corrective manoeuvres. This technology has saved numerous lives by preventing crashes during low-level flying, particularly in combat zones or areas with challenging terrain. GCAS helps reduce the risk of controlled flight into terrain (CFIT), one of the leading causes of aviation accidents.

 

Simulators and Virtual Reality (VR) Training. High-fidelity flight simulators and virtual reality environments allow military pilots to train for complex scenarios, such as combat engagements or emergency procedures, without the risk of damaging aircraft or putting lives at risk. Simulators allow pilots to develop their skills in a safe, controlled environment by replicating realistic flight conditions and emergencies. This enhances their ability to react to real-life threats and emergencies during actual missions, improving overall flight safety.

 

Night Vision and Infrared Sensors. Modern military aircraft are equipped with night vision goggles (NVGs) and infrared (IR) sensors, which allow pilots to fly and operate in low-visibility conditions, such as night time or bad weather, without losing situational awareness. These systems significantly reduce the risk of accidents caused by poor visibility by enhancing visibility in darkness or adverse weather conditions. They also improve safety in combat situations, where flying undetected at night can be a strategic advantage.

 

Bio-Monitoring Wearable Technology. Wearable devices monitor pilots’ vital signs, including heart rate, oxygen levels, and stress markers. These devices can alert flight crews or ground control if a pilot is experiencing fatigue, stress, or hypoxia, ensuring appropriate action can be taken. Real-time health monitoring improves pilot safety by detecting physical or mental fatigue before it becomes critical. This proactive approach allows for better workload management and ensures pilots operate at peak performance during missions.

 

Autonomous Air Traffic Management Systems. Autonomous air traffic management systems use AI to optimise airspace use, deconflict flight paths, and manage large-scale military operations involving multiple aircraft. These systems can adjust real-time routes to avoid collisions or optimise mission timing. By automating air traffic management, military operations can become safer and more efficient, particularly during complex, multi-aircraft operations or congested airspaces. This reduces human controllers’ workload and minimises human error risk.

 

Military aviation’s flight safety measures blend advanced technology, human factor considerations, and robust risk management practices to mitigate the inherent risks of high-performance flying in challenging environments. Continuous innovation and collaboration among military forces globally are crucial to enhancing flight safety for current and future operations.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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