Category: Weapons

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555: PREVIEWING AERO INDIA 2025: EXPECTED ATTRACTIONS

 

 

Wrote this article for the Media

 

 

Air shows are events where aviation enthusiasts, industry professionals, and the general public gather to witness aerial displays and learn about the latest developments in aviation technology. These events typically combine trade exhibitions with public air displays. They include Aerobatic performances by military and civilian aircraft, demonstrations of fighter jets, helicopters, and commercial planes, static displays, trade exhibitions, and seminars. These air shows are a platform for launching new aircraft and technologies and promoting international aviation collaboration. Major international air shows include the Paris Air Show, Farnborough International Air Show (UK), Dubai Air Show (UAE), Singapore Air Show, MAKS Air Show (Russia), and Aero India.

 

Aero India, a global event for defence and aerospace stakeholders, is more than just a biennial air show and aerospace exhibition held at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru, India. It is a platform that unites the global aviation community, offering opportunities for collaboration and investment in the Indian defence sector. Organised by the Ministry of Defence, it is one of Asia’s most significant aerospace and defence events, showcasing both civilian and military aviation. The event includes displays by the Indian Air Force (IAF) and international aerobatic teams, static displays for public viewing, business exhibitions, seminars & conferences.

 

Building on the success of past editions, Aero India 2025 is set to be a landmark event. Scheduled from February 10 to 14, 2025, the event has already garnered significant interest, with over 240 exhibitors confirming their participation. The first three days will be dedicated to business visitors, providing a platform for fruitful collaborations, while the final two days will be open to the public, offering a unique opportunity to witness the latest advancements in the aerospace and defence sectors. The anticipation is palpable as the defence strategic community and journalists are already discussing the new attractions expected to be unveiled during the show.

 

Highlights of Aero India 2023

 

Aero India 2023 was held from February 13 to 17. The event’s theme was “The Runway to a Billion Opportunities.” The event showcased India’s growing defence manufacturing capabilities and promoted the “Make in India, Make for the World” initiative. Over 800 defence companies (exhibitors, businesses, investors, start-ups, and MSMEs) from 80 countries attended, including major global players like Airbus, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin. The event saw a footfall of over seven lakh visitors. The main highlights of the event were:-

 

    • 800+ companies participated (700 Indian and about 110 foreign companies). The major exhibitors included Airbus, Boeing, Dassault Aviation, Lockheed Martin, Israel Aerospace Industry, BrahMos Aerospace, Army Aviation, HC Robotics, SAAB, Safran, Rolls Royce, Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Forge Limited, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), and BEML Limited.

 

    • Defence Ministers from 32 countries, Air Chiefs from 29 countries, and 73 Chief Executive Officers of global and Indian original equipment manufacturers visited and participated in the event.

 

    • Approximately 250+ MoUs/partnerships worth more than Rs 75,000 Crore were finalised. About Rs 200 crore was pledged at the maiden iDEX Investor Hub (iIH).

 

    • India’s thrust was on self-reliance and Making in India. The intention was to enhance exports, encourage joint ventures and co-production, transfer technology, and project India as a cheaper and better option for a manufacturing hub.

 

    • The event aimed to integrate domestic MSMEs and start-ups in the global supply chain and attract foreign investments, including partnerships for co-development and co-production.

 

    • The event aimed to promote the export of indigenous air platforms like Light Combat Aircraft (LCA)-Tejas, HTT-40 trainer, Dornier Light Utility Helicopter (LUH), Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) and Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH).

 

    • The Russian presence was minimal, probably due to their preoccupation with the Russia–Ukraine war. On the other hand, the USA came with many aircraft, including F-35, F-16/F-21, F-18, and B-I Bombers.

 

 

Aero India 2025: Expected Attractions.

 

The air show will feature the latest advancements in civil, military, and space aviation, offering domestic and international companies a platform to showcase their innovations. Highlights include spectacular aerobatic performances, cutting-edge defence technologies, and industry presentations. Exhibition pavilions will highlight India’s growing role in defence innovation. The event will offer ample networking opportunities and business development platforms for stakeholders across the aerospace and defence sectors.

 

Self-Reliance and Aero India. Aero India showcases cutting-edge technologies and is a testament to India’s growing self-reliance in the defence sector. The event is crucial in advancing the Indian government’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (Self-Reliant India) initiative, which aims to reduce import dependence and boost indigenous defence manufacturing. By highlighting India’s growing strength in defence manufacturing, Aero India instils a sense of pride and support for increasing self-reliance.

 

Showcasing Indigenous Technologies. Indian defence manufacturers (DPSUs and private sector) will actively participate in showcasing home-grown technologies. This is critical in demonstrating India’s growing capabilities in designing and manufacturing advanced defence equipment.

 

Collaborations and Partnerships. Aero India is a national event and a global platform for defence collaborations. It’s where Indian companies form joint ventures with international defence giants, fostering a sense of global community. Aero India facilitates international partnerships, supporting India’s goal of producing more defence equipment locally. Joint ventures with global giants like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Dassault Aviation help set up manufacturing facilities in India, aligning with the Make in India initiative. This reduces India’s reliance on imports and promotes local aircraft, parts, and avionics​production, strengthening our global standing in the aerospace and defence sectors.

​

Innovation and Research. Aero India would also highlight India’s investment in indigenous research and development (R&D). The event would underscore India’s technological advancements in defence that support national self-reliance, from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to advanced radar systems and missile technology.​ Indian firms’ increasing focus on designing and producing critical defence technologies locally will be showcased.

 

Export Opportunities. India proposes to export defence technologies, supporting self-reliance and strengthening its presence in the global defence market. Aero India will highlight the export potential of Indian-made defence products, like the Tejas fighter and advanced helicopters.

 

Foreign Aviation Companies Participation in Aero India. Aero India 2025 is expected to feature extensive participation from foreign aviation companies, continuing the strong international presence seen in previous editions. Major global defence manufacturers like Boeing, Dassault Aviation, Lockheed Martin, and Airbus are anticipated to return, showcasing advanced fighter jets such as the F-16, F-18, and Rafale. These companies are vying for multi-billion-dollar defence contracts with the Indian government, making Aero India a crucial negotiation platform. Additionally, foreign delegations from countries including the U.S., France, Israel, Russia, and others across Europe are expected. These firms will exhibit a variety of aerospace technologies, from advanced fighter jets and drones to cutting-edge avionics and defence systems.​

 

Russian Presence in Aero India 2025. The Russian presence in Aero India 2023 was minimal. However, in recent times, Russia has been pursuing the sale of its defence equipment with renewed vigour. Russia is expected to have a strong presence at Aero India 2025. Russia would aim to reinforce its commitment to Indo-Russian defence ties and potentially spark interest in future collaborations or technology transfers involving advanced aerospace systems.​ Additionally, there is speculation that Russia might showcase its Su-57E fifth-generation stealth fighter jet.

 

Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). During Aero India 2025, the DRDO is expected to showcase its latest advancements in defence technology. DRDO may present its latest advancements in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), missile systems such as Akash-NG and Astra, and cutting-edge technologies supporting India’s hypersonic and space-defence initiatives. The exhibition would also focus on future-ready technologies such as hypersonic weapons, stealth technologies, and artificial intelligence-based defence systems. DRDO’s collaboration with the private sector to boost defence exports will also be a key theme​.

 

Indian Defence PSU Participation in Aero India. Aero India 2025 will witness strong participation from India’s Defence Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), including Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), and others. These PSUs will showcase their latest advancements in Indigenous aerospace and defence technologies, supporting the government’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiative. HAL, in particular, will focus on promoting export opportunities for the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and helicopter platforms. Expect advanced radar systems, electronic warfare equipment, and communication technologies from BEL. It might also highlight AI-driven defence solutions and smart battlefield management systems. BDL will likely feature missile systems, including indigenous surface-to-air and anti-tank guided missiles. Given the increasing focus on multi-domain operations, companies like Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Garden Reach Shipbuilders may promote naval platforms.

 

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is the key PSU in promoting Made in India products, such as the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and Light Utility Helicopter (LUH). These platforms not only demonstrate Indian engineering and technological prowess but also enhance defence capabilities by reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.​ HAL is expected to showcase a wide range of aerospace innovations, and it generally showcases and announces its new projects and updates the progress of the previous ones. An update on the progress of India’s indigenous fighter aircraft projects, i.e. Tejas Mk II and fifth generation AMCA, by HAL and Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) would be expected. Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) Dhruv, LCH (Light Combat Helicopter) Prachand, and the HTT-40 trainer aircraft will likely feature prominently. HAL’s progress on its CATS Program and the indigenous fighter aircraft engine project (by GTRE), will also be eagerly awaited.

 

Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). There would be a significant focus on drones, swarms and autonomous systems. These will likely include military and civilian UAVs, with applications ranging from defence reconnaissance to logistics and disaster management. Considering the increased role of drones in air warfare, drone display and air display of armed drones may also be included.

 

iDEX in Aero India 2025. During Aero India 2025, the Innovations for Defence Excellence (iDEX) initiative is expected to have a significant presence, building on its success from previous editions. iDEX serves as a platform to connect startups and innovators with the Indian defence ecosystem, aiming to foster innovation in defence technology. In 2023, the iDEX pavilion showcased numerous startups and facilitated the maiden iDEX Investor Hub, where over ₹200 crores were pledged to support defence-related innovations. For 2025, iDEX will likely continue promoting startups through its exclusive pavilion, hosting innovation challenges, and encouraging partnerships between defence firms and new ventures. This will include networking opportunities, demonstrations of new technologies, and potentially another round of the iDEX Investor Hub to attract funding.

 

Air Display. Air Display during Aero India. Aero India 2025 will feature thrilling aerial displays by Indian and international aerobatic teams and military aircraft. Performances from the Indian Air Force (IAF) would likely include Sukhoi Su-30MKI and Rafale jets demonstrating combat manoeuvres, Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) showcasing its agility and advanced capabilities, and Helicopter displays by the Light Utility Helicopter (LUH). Air Display would have the Surya Kiran Aerobatic Team flying Hawk Mk132 aircraft, providing breath-taking formations, and the Sarang team performing aerobatic manoeuvres with HAL Dhruv helicopters. Aircraft from global manufacturers like the F-16, Rafale, and Eurofighter Typhoons may also be seen in the Indian skies.

 

The countdown to Aero India 2025 has begun. With a diverse array of attractions, including live aerobatic displays, the unveiling of new projects, and innovations from the iDEX Pavilion, the event will highlight India’s growing prominence in the global defence sector. It promises to foster collaboration between international and domestic stakeholders, providing opportunities for business growth, knowledge exchange, and technological advancement. Aero India 2025 is poised to celebrate innovation and strengthen India’s position as a key player in the global aerospace industry.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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References and credits

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543: RUSSIAN USE OF THE ORESHNIK MISSILE AND ITS STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

 

Sputnik News,  a Russian news agency and radio broadcast  service, sought inputs on the Analakshya Project.

 

Article on the subject:-

 

RUSSIAN USE OF THE ORESHNIK MISSILE AND ITS STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

 

The development and deployment of the Oreshnik missile, a hypersonic, intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) by Russia, marks a significant shift in global military power dynamics. First publicly revealed in November 2024 during a strike on Ukraine, the Oreshnik has been described as a highly advanced missile capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads with hypersonic speeds exceeding Mach 10. The missile’s introduction highlights Russia’s continued push towards leveraging next-generation military technology to assert its influence, challenge adversaries, and fortify its strategic deterrence capabilities​

 

Oreshnik Missile

 

Hypersonic Speed and Manoeuvrability. The Oreshnik missile stands out for its hypersonic velocity, with reports indicating speeds of around 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second (Mach 10). This speed renders it nearly immune to current air defence systems, as interception at such velocities requires cutting-edge detection and response technologies. Hypersonic missiles like Oreshnik can also perform mid-flight manoeuvres, making their trajectory unpredictable and further complicating interception efforts​.

 

Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs). Oreshnik reportedly carries multiple independently targetable warheads (MIRVs), with estimates ranging from three to six warheads per missile. These MIRVs can be programmed to strike different targets simultaneously or overwhelm defence systems through sheer volume. The MIRV capability enhances the missile’s destructive potential, especially in scenarios where multiple high-value targets are prioritized​.

 

Intermediate Range and Versatility. The missile’s range is believed to fall between 3,000 and 5,000 kilometers, making it an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). This range covers a significant portion of Europe and parts of Asia, but falls short of reaching the United States. However, this strategic range allows Russia to maintain a strong regional deterrence posture, capable of targeting European NATO members and other adversaries within proximity.

​

Operational Deployment and Combat Testing. Russia’s first known operational use of the Oreshnik missile occurred in November 2024, when it was deployed against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. According to reports, this strike served as a combat test for the missile in a non-nuclear configuration. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that the test was successful, with the missile reaching its intended target without interception. The deployment was designed to demonstrate Russia’s capability to strike with precision and lethality, even in high-pressure combat environments. This deployment signals a shift in Russian military doctrine, emphasising the operational use of hypersonic weapons for both deterrence and offensive purposes. By using Oreshnik in combat, Russia showcased its ability to field advanced missile systems under real-world conditions, sending a clear message to both adversaries and allies regarding its military prowess.

 

Strategic Implications

 

Strengthening Regional Deterrence. The Oreshnik missile significantly enhances Russia’s ability to deter regional adversaries. Its intermediate range allows Russia to project power across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Central Asia, creating a buffer zone of influence where neighbouring countries must consider the risk of hypersonic strikes. This capability provides Russia with a powerful bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations, particularly in contexts involving NATO expansion, territorial disputes, and geopolitical tensions​.

 

Challenging NATO’s Defence Systems. NATO’s current air defence systems are primarily designed to intercept traditional ballistic and cruise missiles. The deployment of Oreshnik, with its hypersonic speed and manoeuvrability, presents a significant challenge to these systems. NATO countries may be forced to accelerate the development of hypersonic defence systems or pursue alternative deterrent measures, increasing military expenditures and deepening the arms race between Russia and Western powers​.

 

Arms Control Frameworks. The introduction of Oreshnik further undermines the already fragile state of global arms control agreements. In 2019, both Russia and the United States withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which previously prohibited the development of missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The Oreshnik missile, with its intermediate range and potential nuclear capability, exacerbates concerns over the proliferation of such systems and the absence of regulatory frameworks to mitigate their deployment​.

 

Global Reactions and Countermeasures

 

United States and NATO. In response to the growing hypersonic threat, the United States and NATO have intensified efforts to develop next-generation missile defence systems. Programs focusing on space-based sensors, directed-energy weapons, and hypersonic interceptors are being accelerated to counteract Russia’s advancements. Additionally, NATO may consider deploying more conventional deterrents, such as forward-deployed forces and ballistic missile defence systems in Eastern Europe​.

 

China’s Perspective. China, a close military partner of Russia, may view the Oreshnik missile as an opportunity for technological collaboration. Given its own hypersonic weapon developments, China could seek to integrate lessons from Oreshnik’s deployment into its missile programs. Alternatively, the missile’s success might prompt China to accelerate its efforts to match or surpass Russian capabilities, potentially increasing regional tensions in Asia​.

 

India’s Strategic Calculations. For India, the development of the Oreshnik missile poses both a strategic challenge and an opportunity. India’s focus on developing its own hypersonic weapons, such as the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV), aligns with the need to counter future threats from China. Furthermore, India may consider enhancing its missile defence systems and investing in early-warning systems capable of detecting hypersonic threats.

 

Broader Implications for Global Stability

 

Escalation of the Hypersonic Arms Race. The successful deployment of Oreshnik signals the start of a new era in missile technology, prompting other nations to accelerate their hypersonic weapons programs. This arms race could destabilize existing power balances, increasing the likelihood of miscalculations and accidental escalations during geopolitical conflicts​.

 

Shift in Military Doctrine. The introduction of hypersonic missiles like Oreshnik is reshaping military doctrines worldwide. Traditional reliance on nuclear deterrence is now supplemented by hypersonic weapons, capable of delivering swift and precise strikes without the political fallout associated with nuclear weapons. This shift is likely to result in the development of new tactical doctrines.

 

Conclusion. The Oreshnik missile represents a bold leap in Russia’s military capabilities, reflecting the country’s commitment to leveraging advanced technologies for strategic dominance. Its deployment in Ukraine served as a clear demonstration of Russia’s readiness to use hypersonic missiles in both conventional and nuclear contexts, reshaping the global security landscape. As nations around the world grapple with the implications of this new weapon, the Oreshnik missile underscores the urgent need for renewed international dialogue on arms control and missile defence. Without such measures, the risk of a hypersonic arms race escalating into broader conflict remains a profound concern for global stability.

 

Inputs:-

(The views expressed are of the Individual, not IAF or GOI).

    • The missile’s ability to carry multiple homing warheads and reach extreme temperatures of 4,000°C presents a significant threat to conventional missile defence systems.
    • India’s military establishment would likely view Russia’s Oreshnik missile with a strategic interest.
    • India may closely study the technology behind Oreshnik’s hypersonic speed, multi-warhead capabilities, and extreme heat resistance.
    • India might assess this development in terms of its missile defence upgrades and hypersonic capabilities development programs.
    • This could drive India to accelerate its hypersonic programs, such as the HSTDV (Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle), and enhance its missile defence systems.
    • This could influence India’s strategic partnerships and technology acquisition efforts, particularly bolstering its Ballistic Missile Defence and hypersonic deterrence programs.
    • India would be careful about directly acquiring the Oreshnik missile due to its commitment to Indigenous defence development under Atmanirbhar Bharat.
    • India may seek technology partnerships with friendly nations to develop home-grown versions of similar advanced missile systems while maintaining strategic independence.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:-

 

  1. BelTA News. (2024). Oreshnik: A Precision Weapon Comparable to Nuclear Strike Capability.

 

  1. Asia Times. (2024). Russian Oreshnik Missile: A Warning to NATO, US, and Ukraine.

 

  1. Komsomolskaya Pravda via BelTA. (2024). Military Expert Commentary on the Oreshnik Missile’s Impact in Ukraine.

 

  1. Global Security Review. (2024). Hypersonic Missiles and Modern Warfare: The Russian Edge.

 

  1. Military Balance Report (2024). International Institute for Strategic Studies.

 

 

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

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514: CONFLICTS, MILITARY SPENDING & ARMS TRANSFERS

 

 

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) launched its Yearbook 2024 on 17 June. The yearbook contains the annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security.

 

Summarised excerpts from the yearbook:-

 

Conflict Trends

 

Although the number of states experiencing armed conflicts fell from 55 in 2022 to 52 in 2023, the estimated number of conflict-related fatalities worldwide rose from 153,100 in 2022 to 170,700 in 2023, reaching the highest level since 2019.

 

In 2023, four conflicts were categorised as major armed conflicts (i.e. conflicts involving 10,000 or more conflict related fatalities in the year), one more than in 2022: the civil wars in Myanmar and Sudan, and the Israel–Hamas and Russia–Ukraine wars.

 

The number of high intensity armed conflicts (i.e. conflicts involving 1000–9999 conflict related fatalities) also increased, from 17 in 2022 to 20 in 2023.

 

The Russia–Ukraine war continued throughout 2023 at a high cost to both sides. Russian air attacks continued, and Ukraine began to reply in kind, although not on the same scale. Both sides sought and received ammunition and weapons from their allies. There were no formal Russian–Ukrainian peace talks during the year, and the one noteworthy diplomatic success—the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative—unravelled in 2023.

 

In contrast to the stalemate in Ukraine, in September 2023, Azerbaijan secured a decisive victory in its long running conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.

 

High intensity armed conflicts continued in Iraq, Syria and Yemen throughout the year.

 

Israel responded to the events of 7 October (the killing of over 1000 civilians and more than 350 Israeli soldiers and police, and the capture of around 240 hostages) by declaring a state of war for the first time since 1973. By the end of the year, more than 22,000 Palestinians had been killed in the ensuing air strikes or ground operations by Israel. Houthi forces in Yemen, claiming support for the Palestinians, started to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea, prompting Western powers to dispatch warships to the area to address the threat.

 

Sub­Saharan Africa remained the region with the most armed conflicts, although many were low intensity conflicts (involving fewer than 1000 conflict-related fatalities), and levels of violence fluctuated considerably. There were decreases in conflict related fatalities in several countries experiencing high intensity armed conflict, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Sudan. However, there were notable increases in conflict­related fatality rates elsewhere, including in Sudan (+537 per cent compared with 2022), Burkina Faso (+100 per cent) and Somalia (+28 per cent).

 

The fighting that erupted in Sudan on 15 April 2023 between forces led by rival military generals triggered a humanitarian crisis and resulted in an all-out civil war.

 

In the Sahel, a coup in Niger and a decision by Mali to expel United Nations peacekeepers added to regional tensions.

 

The Americas is the only region not to have had a major armed conflict in 2018–23. The two countries in the region with the highest number of conflict­related fatalities—Brazil and Mexico—primarily faced criminal rather than political violence in 2023. Criminal gang related violence also escalated significantly in Haiti during the year.

 

Despite the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, the overall conflict­related fatality rate for Asia and Oceania more than halved between 2021 and 2023. This was partly due to a continuing decline in conflict­related fatalities in Afghanistan following the return to power of the Taliban in 2021.

 

Military Spending

 

Estimated global military expenditure rose for the ninth consecutive year in 2023, surpassing $2.4 trillion, driven by the Russia–Ukraine war and broader geopolitical tensions.

 

The 6.8 per cent increase in total military spending in 2023 was the largest rise since 2009, pushing estimated world spending to the highest recorded level.

 

As a result, the global military burden {world military expenditure as a share of world gross domestic product (GDP)} rose to 2.3 percent.

 

Governments allocated 6.9 per cent of their budgets to the military or $306 per person.

 

Estimated military spending increased across all five geographical regions for the first time since 2009.

 

Spending by African countries rose the most (by 22 percent in 2023), while the smallest increase was in the Americas (2.2 percent).

 

The United States remained by far the largest military spender in the world. Its $916 billion expenditure was more than the combined spending of the nine other countries among the top 10 spenders and 3.1 times as large as that of the second biggest spender, China.

 

The trend for increased military spending by European states in response to Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine gained traction in 2023. 39 of the 43 countries in Europe increased military spending. The 16 per cent surge in total European expenditures was driven by a 51 per cent rise in Ukrainian spending and a 24 per cent rise in Russian spending, as well as by 10 of the 28 European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reaching or surpassing the 2 per cent of GDP spending target in 2023.

 

Estimated military expenditures in Asia and Oceania rose for the 34th consecutive year. Half of the regional total consisted of spending by China, which grew by 6.0 per cent to reach $296 billion in 2023. China’s spending influenced spending decisions in neighbouring countries and the broader region: in Japan, for example, spending rose by 11 per cent, the largest year­-on-­year spending increase since 1972.

 

Estimated military spending in the Middle East grew by 9.0 per cent in 2023, with increases in all three of the biggest spenders in the region: Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkiye. The Israel–Hamas war was the main driver for the 24 per cent increase in Israel’s military expenditure.

 

Arms Transfer

 

Suppliers of Major Arms

 

In 2019–23, 66 states exported arms, but most were minor exporters. The 25 largest suppliers accounted for 98 per cent of the total volume of exports, and the top five (the United States, France, Russia, China, and Germany) accounted for 75 per cent.

 

The USA’s share of global exports has increased in recent years while Russia’s share has decreased. In 2019–23, the USA’s arms exports were 17 percent higher than in 2014–18, and its share of the global total increased from 34 to 42 percent. In contrast, Russia’s arms exports decreased by 53 per cent, and its share of the global total dropped from 21 to 11 per cent.

 

France’s exports rose by 47 percent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, making it the second largest exporter of major arms in 2019–23.

 

Known plans for future deliveries of major arms strongly indicate that the USA will remain unchallenged as the largest arms exporter in the coming years and that France will consolidate its position in second place. They also indicate that Russia’s arms exports may reduce even further, while some of the other current top 10 exporters are likely to remain steady or increase.

 

Recipients of Major Arms

 

In 2019–23, 170 states imported arms. The five largest importers were India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Ukraine, and Pakistan, accounting for 35 percent of total arms imports.

 

Asia and Oceania received the largest volumes of major arms in 2019–23, accounting for 37 percent of the total, followed by the Middle East (30 percent), Europe (21 percent), the Americas (5.7 percent), and Africa (4.3 percent).

 

Between 2014–18 and 2019–23, the flow of arms to Europe increased by 94 per cent, while flows to all other geographical regions decreased: Africa (−52 per cent), Asia and Oceania (−12 per cent), the Middle East (−12 per cent) and the Americas (−7.2 per cent).

 

Many of the 170 importers are directly involved in armed conflict or in tensions with other states where the imported major arms play an important role.

 

Moreover, many exporters are direct stakeholders or participants in at least some of these conflicts and tensions, which partly explains why they are willing to supply arms, even when the supply seems to contradict their stated arms export policies. It is also noteworthy that, for most suppliers, arms exports are only a small part of the financial value of their total exports.

 

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

 

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is an independent, international think tank based in Stockholm that provides research, data, and analysis on arms control, disarmament, military expenditure, and armed conflict. It was founded in 1966 by Alva Myrdal and Tage Erlander. SIPRI’s work is intended to help researchers, policymakers, and the public understand the state of the arms industry and the preconditions for a stable peace. 

 

SIPRI’s work is based on open sources and includes:

 

  • Databases. SIPRI’s Arms transfers, Arms industry, and Military expenditure databases provide data on nearly every country in the world.

 

  • Documents. SIPRI provides documents on arms embargoes since the 1950s and national reports on arms export controls.

 

  • Analysis. SIPRI researchers analyse the data to identify trends and potential impacts on global security. 

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome.

 

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.