Category: war and warfare

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212: US vs China on Taiwan: Shadow Boxing

 

Link to the earlier blog on the subject (China vs Taiwan)

 

Recently US Defence Department Spokesperson John Kirby made a statement on recent military exercises conducted by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army near the island of Taiwan. John Kirby told reporters that the US commitment to Taiwan is “rock solid” and that “the US is united with Taiwan against the current danger posed by the People’s Republic of China.”

 

Also the official Twitter accounts of the US State Department posted photos and tweets of Under Secretary of State José Fernandez and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink respectively meeting with Taipei Economic and Cultural “Representative” Bi-khim Hsiao, claiming that the US commitment to Taiwan remains rock-solid, and the US will further strengthen ties with Taiwan. Media reports said that the US has invited Hsu Yen-pu, Taiwan’s “Army Commander,” to visit the US.

 

Strong Chinese Reaction

Zhao Lijian, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry reacted strongly to these developments. Gist of his rebuttal is as follows:-

 

  • Taiwan Island is China’s territory and the US is in no position to point fingers over the Taiwan question.

 

  • US has been making negative moves to sell arms to Taiwan and strengthen official and military ties with the island, including a $750 million arms sale plan, the landing of US military aircraft on the island and frequent sailing of US warships across the Taiwan Straits. These provocative actions damage China-US relations and undermine regional peace and stability.

 

  • The remarks by the US senior official seriously violate the one-China principle, sending an extremely wrong and irresponsible signal to the outside world.

 

  • “Taiwan independence” is a dead end, and the Chinese mainland will take all necessary measures to resolutely crush any attempt at “Taiwan independence.”

 

  • China’s resolve and will to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity are firm and US should correct its mistakes and stop supporting secessionists in the island.

 

  • The embassy warned the US not to fantasise about seeking China’s support and cooperation while wantonly challenging China’s red line on the Taiwan question.

 

Analytical Thoughts

 

  • So far China and US are both shadow boxing over Taiwan issue.

 

  • It seems both are testing the waters and each other’s resolve.

 

  • It is like sumo wrestlers or boxers going round and round gauging each other, before engaging.

 

  • Besides verbal duels, once in a while the two sides resort to strategic coercion and muscle flexing.

 

  • The frequency of these acts is increasing.

 

  • Final engagement and result would depend upon – who wins the power race and world number one position.

 

  • Fate of Taiwan will determine the final result of the power race.

 

  • India has a breathing space, so long as China is preoccupied with Taiwan.

 

  • Our border dispute is still not resolved, with China claiming more and more.

 

  • If it is able to unify Taiwan, it will get encouraged to try it elsewhere.

 

Doubtful Thoughts

 

China is determined to unify Taiwan with the mainland.

 

  • Will China do it with its grey zone operations?

 

  • Will China use force to achieve her objective?

 

  • Will US fight for Taiwan?

 

  • When is this shadow boxing likely to escalate into actual engagement with throwing of punches?

 

  • Will the world get divided into two factions once again?

 

  • Will India be able to maintain policy of equidistance or get drawn towards one of the factions?

 

Random Thought

 

Western powers have been ruling the roost for a while.

Coming century is of the Asia.

 

Question

What will be India’s role, position and choices in this scenario?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

Link to the earlier blog on the subject (China vs Taiwan)

 

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211: China Spoiling Bhutan’s GNP (Gross National Happiness)

 

Pic Courtesy: IPA Journal 

News – This week China and Bhutan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on a Three-Step Roadmap to help speed up long drawn boundary talks.

 

Bhutan

Bhutan, officially known as the Kingdom of Bhutan is a landlocked country in the Eastern Himalayas. It is bordered by China to the north and India to the south, east and west. Nepal and Bangladesh are located in proximity to Bhutan but do not share a land border. The country has a population of over 754,000 and a territory of 38,394 square km (14,824 sq mi) which ranks 133rd in terms of land area, and 160th in population. Bhutan is a constitutional monarchy with Vajrayana Buddhism as the state religion. Hinduism is the second most dominant religion in Bhutan.

 

Bhutan’s Priorities

 

Bhutan has a rich and unique cultural heritage that has largely remained intact because of its isolation from the rest of the world. Bhutanese tradition is deeply steeped in its Buddhist heritage. Because of its largely unspoiled natural environment and cultural heritage, Bhutan has been referred to as The Last Shangri-La.

 

Bhutan is a country of content people, giving more importance to Gross National Happiness (GNP), rather than GDP. The government’s endeavour is to preserve and sustain the current culture and traditions of the country.

 

Sino – Bhutan Relations

 

The Kingdom of Bhutan and the People’s Republic of China do not maintain official diplomatic relations, and their relations are historically tense.

 

Apart from India, Bhutan is the only country with which China has an unsettled land border and Thimphu is also the only neighbouring country with which Beijing does not have official diplomatic and economic relations.

 

Tibet factor

 

Bhutan has had a long and strong cultural, historical, religious and economic connections to Tibet. During the 1959 Tibetan uprising, an estimated 6,000 Tibetans fled to Bhutan and were granted asylum.  Bhutan subsequently closed its border to China, fearing more refugees. With the increase in soldiers on the Chinese side of the Sino-Bhutanese border after the 17-point agreement between the Tibetan government and the central government of the PRC, Bhutan withdrew its representative from Lhasa.

 

Border Dispute

 

The PRC shares a contiguous border of about 470 km with Bhutan. Bhutan’s border with Tibet has never been officially recognized, much less demarcated. The Republic of China officially claims parts of Bhutan territory as its own. This territorial claim has been maintained by the People’s Republic of China after the Chinese Communist Party took control of mainland China in the Chinese Civil War.

 

Areas of Dispute

 

Pic Courtesy: IDR

The Sino-Bhutanese border dispute has traditionally involved 295 square miles (sq mi) of territory, including 191 sq mi in the Jakurlung and Pasamlung valleys in northern Bhutan and another 104 sq mi in western Bhutan that comprise the areas of Doklam, Sinchulung, Dramana and Shakhatoe.

 

Pic Courtesy: Tribune

China has recently expanded its territorial claims beyond the disputed regions in northern and western Bhutan. It has added territorial claims in Sakteng area in eastern Bhutan, adjoining the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. The disputed territory in northern and western Bhutan is relatively small as compared to the new Chinese claim in eastern Bhutan of about 2,051 miles (11 percent of Bhutan’s total area).

 

China’s Belligerence

 

Over the years, the Sino-Bhutanese border dispute has become more complicated, with China escalating its claims and taking forceful steps to change the status quo on the ground.

 

In addition to expanding its territorial claims, China unilaterally has been changing the status quo on the ground through an array of measures, ranging from sending Tibetan grazers and military patrolling teams into disputed areas to building roads and even military structures in contested territory.

 

Beijing is following its South China Sea strategy in Bhutan as well i.e. push territorial claims and change the demography by creating settlements and bringing civilian population.

 

Border Talks

 

Two countries have been engaged in border talks since 1984. They have held over 24 rounds of boundary talks and 10 rounds of negotiations at the ‘Expert Group’ level, in a bid to resolve the dispute.

 

Two agreements—one on the guiding principles on the settlement of the boundary issues reached in 1988, and the other on maintaining peace and stability in the China-Bhutan border area reached in 1998, provide the basis of the ongoing negotiations.

 

The disputed territories have been discussed during the past 24 rounds of border talks and included in a “package deal” dispute resolution proposal that China put to Bhutan in 1996. Under this deal, the PRC offered to renounce its claims to the Pasamlung and Jakarlung valleys in northern Bhutan in return for Thimphu ceding territory in Doklam to Beijing.

 

India’s Concern

 

The border dispute between Bhutan and China has repercussions for India.

 

Doklam Area. Doklam Plateau has strategic significance. The plateau is located on the southeast side of the trijunction area. It is an important area between the Chumbi Valley on Chinese side and Siliguri corridor (Chicken’s neck) on Indian side. Control of this area gives an advantage to the side controlling it.

 

Sakteng Area. China’s most recent territorial claim in Sakteng is also of strategic value. The area adjoins the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which contains disputed territory between China and India. Tawang, a key bone of contention between India and China in the eastern sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), lies to Sakteng’s northeast.

 

Analysis (Personal Views)

 

  • Resolution of border dispute with China has a direct bearing on Indian interests.
  • Chinese desire to control Doklam and Sakteng areas could be with India in mind.
  • China earlier tried to exchange northern territories in exchange of territory in Doklam.
  • Sakteng has been added due to interest in Tawang area.
  • China has been earlier offering a package deal including aspects like trade and cultural exchange besides resolution of territorial dispute.
  • Bhutan sees the package deal as an opening of window for Chinese to make inroads into Bhutan.
  • Bhutan is wary of, long term effects of Chinese presence on her culture and values.
  • However, younger generations in Bhutan are willing to experiment on engagement with China.
  • India and Bhutan have a very good relations with each other.
  • The details of contents of the MoU and the three step roadmap are not available in the open domain.
  • India needs to keep a close watch on these developments.
  • India needs to work closely with Bhutan for resolution of territorial dispute on mutually beneficial terms.

After Thought

 

Bhutan should be made to realise that agreeing to Chinese terms (if they get tempted) would not guarantee China getting off her back. China has been known for demanding more and more.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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References

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-wants-bhutan-to-settle-china-border-issue-so-it-can-define-trijunction-area-near-doklam/554740/

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/bhutan-and-china-sign-mou-for-3-step-roadmap-to-expedite-boundary-talks/article36999596.ece

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bhutan-china-boundery-dispute-pact-india-on-bhutan-china-dispute-cautious-response-from-india-as-bhutan-china-ink-border-talks-pact-2575830

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bhutan-china-sign-mou-on-boundary-issue-india-wary-324614

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhutan

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207: China vs Taiwan

 

Pic: courtesy internet (foreign affairs)

 

Recently Beijing sent more than 150 military planes towards Taiwan over four consecutive days amid celebrations of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. These jets (including J-16 fighter jets and nuclear-capable H-6 bombers) entered into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), forcing the Taiwanese air force to scramble its jets in response. This was China’s largest-ever incursion into Taiwan’s air defence zone. Taiwan scrambled its jets and deployed AD missile systems against the Chinese ‘air incursion’.

 

The ADIZ is not the same as Taiwan’s territorial airspace, but includes a far greater area that overlaps with part of China’s air defence identification zone and even includes some of mainland China.

 

Taiwan

Known formally as the Republic of China (ROC), Taiwan is a self-ruled island that lies about 161 kilometres (100 miles) off the coast of mainland China. It is a democracy with a separate government and a military. But despite its de facto independence, most countries do not consider Taiwan a separate state due to China’s claims over the territory.

 

Taiwan: History

Taiwan was at one time a backwater of Imperial China. It was colonised by the Japanese during the World Wars. In 1949, the Chinese nationalists fled there after losing a bloody civil war to the communists who established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with its government in Beijing. In Taipei, the nationalists’ ROC government continued to claim to represent all of China and even held a seat on the United Nations Security Council. But from 1971 onwards, most countries, including the US, began dropping diplomatic recognition of the ROC in Taipei in favour of the PRC in Beijing.

 

Chinese Claim

Beijing claims the self-ruled island of 23 million as its own and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve its goal of unifying it with China. While Beijing has repeatedly threatened to use force if Taiwan ever formally declares independence, the sabre-rattling has increased under Xi, who sees reuniting Taiwan with mainland China as an issue of legacy. The historical dispute is at the crux of Beijing’s much hyped “One China” principle. Beijing has ramped up pressure on Taipei since 2016.

 

Taiwan’s Concern

Taiwan feels a threat to its independence, its democracy and its way of life. Taiwan is concerned that China is going to launch a war against Taiwan at some point. Taiwan is resolved to do whatever it takes to defend itself.  Taiwan needs to “strengthen itself” and Taiwan President has made modernising the armed forces a priority, enhancing its capacity for asymmetric warfare, so as to make any Chinese attack difficult and costly. Taiwan is looking at smart mines, portable missiles and enhancement of its Air Force capabilities.

 

Fear of an all-out conflict is growing higher. Some defence analysts predict that Beijing could have the ability to mount a full-scale invasion of   Taiwan by 2025.

 

Taiwan Internal Political Dynamics

Taiwan has the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which supports the vision of a Taiwan distinct from China. It also has the more China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT is known for fostering closer economic ties with China and is supported by big business interests in Taiwan. The KMT’s more conservative factions, however, continue to call for unification even though that view is now at odds with mainstream Taiwanese society.

 

US – Taiwan

The United States condemned the Chinese military activity near Taiwan describing it as “provocative” and “destabilising”. US asked China to cease its “military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan”.

 

While the United States does not have formal diplomatic relations with the island, but is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. The legislation mandates the US to “preserve and promote extensive, close and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people of Taiwan”.

 

The United States does not even have a formal defence treaty, but the legislation further obliges the US to make “available to Taiwan such defence articles and defence services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self- defence capacity”.

 

US is Taipei’s biggest source of military and political support. The US has committed to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region. It has promised to “continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defence capability”.

 

China – US – Taiwan

Relationship involving China, Taiwan and the US is a complex diplomatic dance of its kind.

 

One China Policy.  This policy means different things to Beijing and Washington. For the former there is only ‘One China’ and that is governed by Beijing (it is the pretext for its claims that Taiwan is simply a province of the mainland and not an independent state). For the US, however, ‘One China’ is more ambiguous.

 

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday criticised the US over its ties with Taipei, saying that selling weapons to Taiwan, as well as US ships navigating the Taiwan Strait, was “provocative action that harmed US-China relations.

 

China has blamed the US for the increased tensions, with the two economic giants at odds over not only Taiwan but other issues including trade, Hong Kong, the situation in China’s far-western region of Xinjiang and the coronavirus.

 

Analysis

 

  • Actual invasion would be a big challenge for the PLA.

 

  • Recent military activities are an effort at intimidation.

 

  • China is trying to pressure Taiwan and draw some red lines and markers in the sand.

 

  • China is trying to escalate a campaign of psychological warfare against the island.

 

Bottom Line

Unification of Taiwan with China is the top most priority of China at the moment.

 

Question

Will US defend Taiwan in case of military invasion by China?

Or

Is Taiwan just a piece on the chess board of world politics?

 

Coming Up

There is much more to this complex issue.

More on the subject coming up including Indian options.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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