CANDID AND TO THE POINT / काम की बात
Personal views on two questions
Is authorised strength of 42 fighter squadrons adequate for the threat perception existing today?
Should we go in for more Rafale aircraft?
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Recently I wrote an article on “Airpower and Grey Zone Operations”. During the research, one question kept nagging my brain, so I asked all my colleagues and veterans, carrying out research and analysis on defence and security related subjects, individually or in association with different think tanks. Got some clarity on the issue with quite a few perspectives.
Question: What is the difference between Grey Zone (GZ) Conflicts / operations and No War No Peace (NWNP) situation?
Answer:
NWNP is an existing state (generally at the borders) – GZ is a zone in the continuum of war between peace and declared war.
NWNP is generally referred to military domain (actions or matters) – GZ is multi domain in DIME paradigm.
NWNP uses military tools as threats and weapons – GZ anything or everything can be used as a threat or weapon from multiple domains (political, economic, information, psychological, diplomatic, cyber and space etc).
NWNP includes firing by regular forces, small team actions across border and actions by non-state actors in concert with regulars etc – GZ activities are much broader and ambiguous.
NWNP is referred in the context of Indo-Pak border situations – GZ term appeared in the lexicon of defence and security analysts in global context.
NWNP was a low level term largely utilised on LOC – GZ is a wider concept that looks at the wide space between peace and war – a zone that is blurred.
NWNP situations may or may not have deniability – GZ operations generally have a high degree of deniability.
NWNP generally involves kinetic weapons and could lead to escalation – GZ generally employs hybrid warfare techniques (with kinetic weapons being one of the options but rarely used).
NWNP is a situation existing between two nations with their militaries face to face – GZ is a conflict between two nations not necessarily in eyeball situation.
NWNP is related to posturing, deterrence, coercion and use of force – GZ is achieving the objectives without military confrontation.
NWNP: the escalatory ladder can be traversed (up or down) at a rapid pace – GZ the transition is gradual and slower.
NWNP: the actions may be localised, limited in area and influence – GZ actions generally affect a large area or number of people.
Titbit
We are in NWNP situation with Pakistan
Chinese have mastered the art of Grey Zone operations
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Chips
We are a chip based society. Chips are tiny pieces of silicon with intricate circuits on them and they are the lifeblood of today’s economy. These clever semiconductors make our internet-connected world go round. In addition to iPhones and PlayStations, they underpin key national infrastructure and sophisticated weaponry. Chips are a foundational aspect of the future of artificial intelligence.
Semiconductors made from silicon wafers mounted with billions of microscopic transistors are the basic component of modern digital life and the building blocks of innovation for the future. They are arguably one of the world’s most important industries.
Controlling advanced chip manufacturing in the 21st century may well prove to be like controlling the oil supply in the 20th. The country that controls this manufacturing can throttle the military and economic power of others.
Chip Production
There are two types of semiconductor manufacturing companies in the chip industry. Some (like Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) design and make their own products in factories that they own. There are also foundries, which fabricate chips designed by consumer and military customers.
In sheer manufacturing capacity, Taiwan is number one followed by South Korea and U.S. in third place, with China gaining quickly. World’s top two chip companies are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) of Taiwan and Samsung Electronics of South Korea.
The chips that TSMC makes are found in almost everything: smartphones, high-performance computing platforms, PCs, tablets, servers, base stations, game consoles, internet-connected devices like smart wearables, digital consumer electronics, cars, and almost every weapon system built in the 21st century. About 60 percent of the chips TSMC makes are for American companies.
Shortage. The severity of the global chip shortage has gone up a notch in recent times. The shortage is likely to last to last till 2022 or possible 2023. The reasons for the ongoing global chip shortage are complex and multifaceted.
Chip Wars
This was sort of expected. As the U.S.-China confrontation takes root, the ability to craft chips for everything from artificial intelligence and data centers to autonomous cars and smartphones has become an issue of national security, injecting government into business decisions over where to manufacture chips and to whom to sell them.
USA. A global semiconductor shortage and tensions with China have bolstered U.S. scrutiny of the supply chain and created a drive for it to regain leadership. The United States recently attacked China in trade war, by limiting Huawei’s ability to outsource its in-house chip designs for manufacture by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a Taiwanese chip foundry.
China. China uses 61 percent of the world’s chips in products for both its domestic and export markets. China recognized that its inability to manufacture the most advanced chips was a strategic Achilles heel. China devised two plans to solve these problems. The first one being made in China 2025 plan of the country’s roadmap to update China’s manufacturing base from making low-tech products to rapidly developing ten high-tech industries, including electric cars, next-generation computing, telecommunications, robotics, artificial intelligence, and advanced chips. China’s second plan is the National Integrated Circuit Plan, a roadmap for building an indigenous semiconductor industry and accelerating chip manufacturing. The goal is to meet its local chip demand by 2030.
Taiwan. TSMC of Taiwan has established a R&D team to find a feasible path for development of semiconductors below 1-nanometer (nm). TSMC will also be expanding capacity as in places like Japan. About 20 Japanese companies, will work with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) to develop chip manufacturing technology in Japan.
South Korea. South Korea’s strategy in the future of chips is more impressive than the U.S. Through the so-called “K-Semiconductor Strategy,” the South Korean government said it will support the industry by offering tax breaks, finance, and infrastructure. South Korea has a commanding lead in memory chips with a 65% share, largely thanks to Samsung. South Korea’s investment is being led by two of its biggest chip firms: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Samsung Electronics meanwhile is planning to invest 171 trillion won through 2030, raising its previous investment target of 133 trillion won, which was announced in 2019.
Future
Scientists have for a long time looked towards the potential of thin two-dimensional semiconductors in realizing high-performance electronic devices. However, there have been two significant problems to migrating semiconductor production to use this new tech. Firstly the materials had an inherent property of high contact resistance, and secondly they had poor current delivery capabilities. These issues seem to have been resolved. These are exciting times in the future of technology. Advances in chip technology and quantum computing would determine how global innovation moves forward.
There is much more to it than meets the eye: more coming up soon
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References
1. https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/the-chip-wars-of-the-21st-century/
2.http://www.obela.org/system/files/The_importance_of_chips_in_commercial_warfare.pdf
3. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3102518/us-china-tech-war-battle-over-semiconductors-taiwan-stokes
4. https://theprint.in/world/why-the-us-china-conflict-over-chips-is-about-to-get-even-uglier/529373/