Category: war and warfare

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183: Taliban’s Runover: Some Factors

 

Setting and Population Density Pattern. 

  • Afghanistan’s overall population density is only about 148 people per square mile / 57 people per square kilometer (Indian population density is 1202 per square mile / 464 per square kilometer).

 

  • Even in the populated areas of Afghanistan, people are quite spread out, with only 26 percent of the population living in urban centres. This dispersed population pattern, is a challenge for the state army to defend while, it favours the Taliban’s quick-moving offensive.

 

Taliban Strategy.

  • Following the withdrawal of Western forces, the Taliban swiftly and easily occupied vast swaths of sparsely populated territory. They then used that territory to launch coordinated and fast-moving offensives.

 

  • Instead of traditional tools of warfare (like artillery and armour), the Taliban moved quickly in weaponised pickup trucks to defeat dug-in defensive They forced The Afghan forces to retreat from outposts and checkpoints to (safety of) urban areas, thereby ceding control of supply lines and major highways. This allowed Taliban forces to surround and isolate urban centers.

 

  • Local officials were quick to accept Taliban control because they had little allegiance to the central government and knew that Afghan forces were unwilling (and unable) to defend their areas from Taliban

 

Taliban Advantages.

  • Taliban enjoyed a presence throughout the country, allowing them to pressure the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in multiple locations.

 

  • The Taliban were able to conduct lightning offensives across many fronts, which fatally stressed the limited cohesion of the Afghan National Defense and Security.

 

Afghan Security Force: Challenges

  • Low force-to-space ratios meant that defenders had significant ground to cover and had to move swiftly and in a coordinated fashion to stand any chance of successfully countering Taliban threats from many The Afghan security forces were not geared up to these tasks.

 

  • The Afghan military lacked the capacity and cohesion required to stand firm and defend against fast-moving offensives across many fronts.

 

  • Afghan forces had always been heavily dependent on S. air support for troop movement, re-supply, and combat operations. In absence of the air support, the Afghan military was unable to regroup or move units around quickly.

 

  • Afghan forces were hampered by lack of cohesion, leadership, motivation, and limited training & mobility.

 

Outcome.

  • The weaknesses of the Afghan security forces, combined with the low force-to-space ratios generated by Afghanistan’s terrain and its population distribution, made a quick Taliban victory a reality.

 

  • Taliban rarely had to use force because they could leverage their geographic reach to intimidate local leaders and convince defenders to flee or surrender.

 

Lessons

  • Understanding Local conditions is Important.

 

  • One solution does not work for every problem.

 

  • Psychological (Mind) factor of any armed is important.

 

  • Besides Equipment and training, motivation and leadership is equally important.

 

There is much more to it – More coming up

 

Questions

Has the western world really understood Afghanistan?

Is the fight against terrorism being orchestrated correctly?

 

Titbit

Afghanistan is called graveyard of empires.

Britishers came and failed

Russians tried and failed.

Yanks tried for long and failed.

 

Random Thoughts

Now it is Chinese turn

(Chinese are too smart to burn their hands – they will let Pakistan do Their dirty work)

Pakistan is playing with a two edged sword.

will the nurtured snake bite back

 

Suggestions and Value additions are most welcome

 

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References

https://warontherocks.com/

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/afghanistan-taliban-uk-war-troops-b1902270.html

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-17/why-taliban-won

https://cissm.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/worst-case-scenario-assessing-impact-complete-isaf-military-withdrawal

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-army-collapse-taliban-11628958253

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-taliban-advances-afghan-military-overhauls-war-strategy-limit-losses-2021-07-22/

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-pug

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177: Technology: Future Trajectory of Artificial Intelligence

 

AI is going to change the world more than anything in the history of mankind.

– Kai-Fu Lee

 

 Artificial Intelligence (AI) has permeated into all aspects of our lives. AI tools are everywhere we look. AI is  delivering tangible benefits across every  industry one can think about.

 

  • Transportation: Although it could take a decade or more to perfect them, autonomous cars will one day ferry us from place to place.

 

  • Manufacturing: AI powered robots work alongside humans to perform a limited range of tasks like assembly and stacking, and predictive analysis sensors keep equipment running smoothly.

 

  • Healthcare: In the comparatively AI-nascent field of healthcare, diseases are more quickly and accurately diagnosed, drug discovery is sped up and streamlined, virtual nursing assistants monitor patients and big data analysis helps to create a more personalized patient experience.

 

  • Education: Textbooks are digitized with the help of AI, early-stage virtual tutors assist human instructors and facial analysis gauges the emotions of students to help determine who’s struggling or bored and better tailor the experience to their individual needs.

 

  • Media: Journalism is harnessing AI, too, and will continue to benefit from it. Bloomberg uses Cyborg technology to help make quick sense of complex financial reports. The Associated Press employs the natural language abilities of Automated Insights to produce 3,700 earning reports stories per year — nearly four times more than in the recent past.

 

  • Customer Service: Last but hardly least, Google is working on an AI assistant that can place human-like calls to make appointments at, say, your neighbourhood hair salon. In addition to words, the system understands context and nuance.

 

Future Trajectory

Most AI applications today are classified as “narrow” or “weak” AI, meaning that they usually carry out a specific task they are designed for.  

AI is only just getting started. Computers will get smarter, quicker, and increasingly become capable of tasks that traditionally are carried out by humans, such as making complex decisions or engaging in creative thought. Truly intelligent entities would not be designed for one specific task but would be able to carry out many number of tasks.

A Quantum Powered AI

 Computing power is the engine of AI.

Quantum computing, along with other next-level processing capabilities such as biological and neuromorphic computing, is likely to unlock even more possibilities.

Quantum computing is basically, ability of sub-atomic particles to exist in more than one state at the same time. It is theoretically capable of completing some calculations up to 100 trillion times faster than today’s fastest computers.

In order to continually evolve to become smarter, machine learning models will inevitably become larger.

 Additionally, more processing power means we will be able to create larger amounts of “synthetic” data for training purposes, reducing the need for collecting real data to feed into algorithms for many applications.

Other technologies like neuromorphic computing would be able to mimic the “elastic” capabilities of the human brain to adapt themselves to processing new forms of information.

Creative AI

 These days we can see art, music, poetry, and even computer code is being created by AI.

This has been made possible by the ongoing development of “generative” AI i.e. when Ai creates new data rather than simply analyzing and understanding existing data.

With generative AI, analyzing and understanding is the first step of the process. It then takes what it has learned and uses it to build further examples of the models that it has studied.

This ability to create synthetic data will lead us into an era where machines will be doing things we simply haven’t seen them do before.

Ethical and Accountable AI

 At the moment, much of the inner workings of today’s AI is not transparent due to proprietary algorithms or complexity involved.

This creates a trust deficit and reluctance to let machines make  decisions that affect people’s lives.

If AI is going to live up to its potential, then the smart machines of the near future will have to be more transparent, explainable, and accountable than the ones we’re familiar with now.

Legislative and regulatory changes are likely to be put in place in future.

 

Interesting

Intel recently unveiled its Loihi processing chip, packed with more than two billion transistors, which is one application that was able to identify ten different types of hazardous material by smell alone – more quickly and accurately than trained sniffer dogs.

 

Titbits

Adversial Model – AI vs AI

The most impressive results available today are usually obtained when this is done via an “adversarial” model – effectively, two AIs are pitted against each other, with one tasked with creating something based on existing data and the other tasked with finding flaws in the new creation. When these flaws are discovered, the creative network (known as the “generator”) learns from its mistakes and eventually becomes capable of creating data that its opponent (the “discriminator” network) finds increasingly hard to distinguish from the existing data.

 

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References

https://builtin.com/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-future

https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/consulting/articles/the-future-of-ai.html

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175: China’s Active Defence Strategy

 

Genesis. China’s Active defence Strategy appeared first time in  MAO’s writings in the year 1936. However, its meaning has been changing from time to time along with the war fighting philosophy of China.

 

Changes in War Fighting Philosophy. War fighting Philosophy of China has changed with the era of person in power. Over the years the changes are as follows:-

 

  • Mao Zedong – Final War (with reference to world wars)
  • Ding Xiaoping – Local War (Shift from world war to limited wars)
  • Jing Zemin – Local war with Hi Technology.
  • Hu Jintao – Informatised Local War (Network centric war)
  • Xi Jinping – Informatised and intelligentised war (Unrestricted War – including elements of hybrid and unconventional warfare even in the Grey Zone).

 

Initial Connotation. When the idea was conceived initially it meant allowing the enemy to come into own territory, in area of own choice and up to pre decide depth. Allow the enemy’s logistics supply lines get stretched out and dry down and at an opportune moment attack and defeat him. It was sort of offensive defence.

 

Present Framework. China articulates its Active Defence response as:

“China would never invade or expand, at the same time would never permit any piece of Chinese territory to separate from China & PLA will strike after enemy has attacked”.

 

Analysis & Implications

  • There is always a gap between what china preaches and practices. China although states that she will not expand, but is driven by the baser instinct of expansionism, considering herself as an empire state rather than nation state.

 

  • China decides as to what is part of China, by staking claims and producing conveniently select and doctored historical and legal documents.

 

  • China has left definition of enemy attack intentionally vague. It is not limited to military attack by kinetic means. It may include any action by the adversary which is against the interest of China.

 

  • In other words China decides what enemy attack is, and reserves the right to respond in a way it feels is appropriate.

 

  • It means China will always have the initiative and will have the legitimacy (in her opinion) for her actions.

 

  • China justifies her approach to this active defence strategy as strategically defensive but operationally offensive.

 

  • In tune with her war fighting philosophy of unrestricted warfare, the attack on enemy would be any domain (land, air, sea, cyber, space, electronic, information, psychological or even nuclear). It could use everything and anything as a weapon from the instruments of national power (DIME).

 

  • This strategy coupled with China’s practiced strategic approach of “achieving objectives without firing a shot”, would mean that China would continue to perpetuate grey zone warfare (inclusive of hybrid and unconventional warfare).

 

  • China’s formation of Strategic Support Force as a separate service, is in tune with the above mentioned strategy and actions.

 

Bottom Line

 There is an urgent need for reorientation and gearing up (not only by military) to deal with these challenges.

 

Question

Are we doing it?

 

YOUR SUGGESTIONS & VIEWS ARE MOST WELCOME

 

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