Category: war and warfare

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207: China vs Taiwan

 

Pic: courtesy internet (foreign affairs)

 

Recently Beijing sent more than 150 military planes towards Taiwan over four consecutive days amid celebrations of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. These jets (including J-16 fighter jets and nuclear-capable H-6 bombers) entered into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), forcing the Taiwanese air force to scramble its jets in response. This was China’s largest-ever incursion into Taiwan’s air defence zone. Taiwan scrambled its jets and deployed AD missile systems against the Chinese ‘air incursion’.

 

The ADIZ is not the same as Taiwan’s territorial airspace, but includes a far greater area that overlaps with part of China’s air defence identification zone and even includes some of mainland China.

 

Taiwan

Known formally as the Republic of China (ROC), Taiwan is a self-ruled island that lies about 161 kilometres (100 miles) off the coast of mainland China. It is a democracy with a separate government and a military. But despite its de facto independence, most countries do not consider Taiwan a separate state due to China’s claims over the territory.

 

Taiwan: History

Taiwan was at one time a backwater of Imperial China. It was colonised by the Japanese during the World Wars. In 1949, the Chinese nationalists fled there after losing a bloody civil war to the communists who established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with its government in Beijing. In Taipei, the nationalists’ ROC government continued to claim to represent all of China and even held a seat on the United Nations Security Council. But from 1971 onwards, most countries, including the US, began dropping diplomatic recognition of the ROC in Taipei in favour of the PRC in Beijing.

 

Chinese Claim

Beijing claims the self-ruled island of 23 million as its own and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve its goal of unifying it with China. While Beijing has repeatedly threatened to use force if Taiwan ever formally declares independence, the sabre-rattling has increased under Xi, who sees reuniting Taiwan with mainland China as an issue of legacy. The historical dispute is at the crux of Beijing’s much hyped “One China” principle. Beijing has ramped up pressure on Taipei since 2016.

 

Taiwan’s Concern

Taiwan feels a threat to its independence, its democracy and its way of life. Taiwan is concerned that China is going to launch a war against Taiwan at some point. Taiwan is resolved to do whatever it takes to defend itself.  Taiwan needs to “strengthen itself” and Taiwan President has made modernising the armed forces a priority, enhancing its capacity for asymmetric warfare, so as to make any Chinese attack difficult and costly. Taiwan is looking at smart mines, portable missiles and enhancement of its Air Force capabilities.

 

Fear of an all-out conflict is growing higher. Some defence analysts predict that Beijing could have the ability to mount a full-scale invasion of   Taiwan by 2025.

 

Taiwan Internal Political Dynamics

Taiwan has the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which supports the vision of a Taiwan distinct from China. It also has the more China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT is known for fostering closer economic ties with China and is supported by big business interests in Taiwan. The KMT’s more conservative factions, however, continue to call for unification even though that view is now at odds with mainstream Taiwanese society.

 

US – Taiwan

The United States condemned the Chinese military activity near Taiwan describing it as “provocative” and “destabilising”. US asked China to cease its “military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan”.

 

While the United States does not have formal diplomatic relations with the island, but is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. The legislation mandates the US to “preserve and promote extensive, close and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people of Taiwan”.

 

The United States does not even have a formal defence treaty, but the legislation further obliges the US to make “available to Taiwan such defence articles and defence services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self- defence capacity”.

 

US is Taipei’s biggest source of military and political support. The US has committed to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region. It has promised to “continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defence capability”.

 

China – US – Taiwan

Relationship involving China, Taiwan and the US is a complex diplomatic dance of its kind.

 

One China Policy.  This policy means different things to Beijing and Washington. For the former there is only ‘One China’ and that is governed by Beijing (it is the pretext for its claims that Taiwan is simply a province of the mainland and not an independent state). For the US, however, ‘One China’ is more ambiguous.

 

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday criticised the US over its ties with Taipei, saying that selling weapons to Taiwan, as well as US ships navigating the Taiwan Strait, was “provocative action that harmed US-China relations.

 

China has blamed the US for the increased tensions, with the two economic giants at odds over not only Taiwan but other issues including trade, Hong Kong, the situation in China’s far-western region of Xinjiang and the coronavirus.

 

Analysis

 

  • Actual invasion would be a big challenge for the PLA.

 

  • Recent military activities are an effort at intimidation.

 

  • China is trying to pressure Taiwan and draw some red lines and markers in the sand.

 

  • China is trying to escalate a campaign of psychological warfare against the island.

 

Bottom Line

Unification of Taiwan with China is the top most priority of China at the moment.

 

Question

Will US defend Taiwan in case of military invasion by China?

Or

Is Taiwan just a piece on the chess board of world politics?

 

Coming Up

There is much more to this complex issue.

More on the subject coming up including Indian options.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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201: MILITARY SPENDING: FACTS, TRENDS & ANALYSIS

Pic courtesy: military mortgage center

SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.

SIPRI Yearbook 2021 has been published and it presents a combination of original data in areas such as world military expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, nuclear forces, armed conflicts and multilateral peace operations.

Relevant extracts on military expenditure are given below:-

 

World Military Expenditure

 

The growth in total spending in 2020 was largely influenced by expenditure patterns in the United States and China.

 

World military expenditure is estimated to have been US$1981 billion in 2020. Total spending was 2.6 per cent higher than in 2019 and 9.3 per cent higher than in 2011.

 

Military spending increased in at least four of the world’s five regions is :-
• 5.1 per cent in Africa
• 4.0 per cent in Europe
• 3.9 per cent in the Americas
• 2.5 per cent in Asia and Oceania.

 

Impact of Covid-19

 

While the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on military spending will become clearer in the coming years, general observations about its impact are as follows:-

 

  • Several countries are known to have reduced or diverted military spending to address the pandemic.

 

  • The military burden in a majority of states increased in 2020.

 

  • Most countries used military assets, especially personnel, to support their responses to the outbreak of Covid-19.

 

The Largest Military Spenders in 2020

 

The USA increased its military spending for the third straight year to reach $778 billion in 2020, a 4.4 per cent increase since 2019 but a 10 per cent decrease since 2011.

 

China’s military expenditure is estimated at $252 billion in 2020, representing an increase of 1.9 per cent since 2019 and 76 per cent since 2011. Chinese spending has risen for 26 consecutive years. It is the longest streak of uninterrupted increases by any country in the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.

 

India’s spending of $72.9 billion, an increase of 2.1 per cent in 2020, ranked it as the third highest spender in the world.

 

Russia’s total military spending was $61.7 billion. This was 2.5 per cent higher than in 2019, but 6.6 per cent lower than the initial budget for 2020.

 

The fifth biggest spender, the United Kingdom, raised its military expenditure by 2.9 per cent in 2020. This was the UK’s second highest annual growth rate in the period 2011–20, a decade that until 2017 was characterized by military spending cuts.

 

Main Exporters and Importers

 

Observations and Analysis

 

  • USA and China are the major influencers in military spending.

 

  • USA continues to be highest spender (way ahead of others including China), trying to retain its most powerful status.

 

  • China’s expenditure figure is 1/3rd of USA, but China could be spending more than it declares.

 

  • The trend of China’s expenditure (Continuous rise in its spending for last 26 years) shows her resolve to enhance her military power.

 

  • USA and China expenditure patterns indicate a beginning of second cold war.

 

  • Covid pandemic has reduced military expenditure in most of the countries.

 

  • India’s amount on military expenditure is although third highest in the world, but is 1/3rd of that of China and 1/10th of that of USA.

 

  • Russia although is trying to regain its lost glory but spending less on military, apparently due to financial constraints and development priorities.

 

  • Arms export is led by USA with major chunk of 37% export market.

 

  • Russia still has a foothold in the military export market with number two position with reasonable figure of 20%.

 

  • China figures in the both the lists of import and export at number 5 position with approximately 5% in both. However it is trying to capture more and more of world military market share.

 

  • India continues to maintain the dubious record of being at number two place in the defence imports list, behind Saudi Arabia.

 

Bottom Line

India cannot match China in defence expenditure.

 

Question

Will India be able to break its dependence on military imports?

 

Wild Thought

Maybe the unrest world over is sponsored by the arms industry.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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199: Deception: Key to Chinese Military Strategy

Inflatable decoy (Pic: Courtesy – Reddit)

China regards deception as a key component of military planning, and PLA leaders continue to emphasise on the widespread use of deception.

 

This is particularly evident at the tactical level, where the PLA actively employs wide variety of deception measures.

Decoys

One of the primary methods of battlefield deception for PLA ground forces is the use of decoys.

 

PLA decoys simulate a wide range of equipment including ballistic missile launch vehicles, tanks, aircraft, artillery, and other various types of military vehicles and equipment including small maritime vessels.

 

The PLA uses two types of decoys: inflatable and solid.

 

Continue reading “199: Deception: Key to Chinese Military Strategy”