Military Capability – Air Marshal's Perspective

December 16, 2024December 16, 2024

558: COLD WAR REDUX: MILITARY ASPECTS OF COLD WAR 2.0

Pics Courtesy Net

Presented my Paper during the National Conference on Cold War 2.0 at Reva University 0n 14 Dec 24.

“Cold War 2.0” refers to the resurgence of strategic competition, primarily between the United States and China, but also involving Russia and other global players. The military repercussions of Cold War 2.0 are profound, impacting global security, defence strategies, alliances, and the development of cutting-edge technologies. As the U.S., China, Russia, and other nations adjust to this renewed strategic competition. This modern geopolitical rivalry differs from the original Cold War but still shares significant military aspects.

Cold War 2.0

While ‘Cold War 2.0’ resembles the original Cold War, it is a distinct and modern iteration marked by new issues and complexities. This contemporary version shares some similarities with its predecessor but also differs in crucial ways, reflecting the evolution of global dynamics.

Key Drivers of Cold War 2.0

- Technological and Economic Rivalry. Unlike the ideological battle of capitalism vs. communism during the original Cold War, today’s competition revolves around technological dominance and economic power. The U.S. and China compete fiercely over technologies like AI, quantum computing, semiconductors, and 5G networks, considered strategic assets.

- Military Posturing. While direct military confrontation is unlikely, the U.S. and China (and, to some extent, Russia) are investing heavily in modernising their militaries. This includes advancements in cyber capabilities, nuclear arms, space defence, and hypersonic weapons.

- Influence and Alliances. The U.S. is strengthening alliances through initiatives like AUKUS (Australia-UK-U.S. security pact) and Quad (U.S., Japan, India, and Australia), which focus on countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. China, in turn, builds influence through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aiming to expand economic influence in Asia, Africa, and Europe.

- Cyber Warfare and Information Manipulation. Cyber attacks, espionage, and misinformation campaigns are central to Cold War 2.0. Often attributed to state-backed actors, these efforts target critical infrastructure, government agencies, and private enterprises to gain a strategic advantage.

- Space Race. Space is now a potential battleground, with the U.S. and China investing in capabilities to assert dominance in outer space. This includes satellite technology, anti-satellite weapons, and plans for potential lunar exploration bases.

Differences from the Original Cold War

- Interconnected Economies. Unlike the U.S. and Soviet Union, which had limited economic ties, the U.S. and China are deeply interwoven economically. Trade dependencies complicate outright antagonism and make the situation more complex.

- Ideological Tension. While ideology still plays a role (with China promoting an authoritarian governance model), the rivalry is not purely ideological. The focus is more on pragmatic control over global norms, standards, and resources rather than on spreading a single political ideology worldwide.

- Multipolar World. The Cold War had two superpowers, but today’s world is multipolar. Other major players, including the European Union, India, and Brazil, add nuance to global power dynamics and complicate the binary nature of the U.S.-China rivalry.

Implications

- If this Cold War 2.0 continues, it could have wide-ranging and potentially destabilising consequences.

- Global Supply Chain Decoupling. Increased tariffs, restrictions on technology transfers, and efforts to localise supply chains might lead to a more bifurcated global economy.

- Fragmented Technology Ecosystems. Competing standards for technologies (like internet governance or 5G) could lead to incompatible systems in different parts of the world, affecting everything from telecommunications to digital commerce.

- Increased Regional Tensions. Areas like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Ukraine (regarding U.S.-Russia relations) may become flashpoints as major powers assert control in contested regions.

Military Aspects of Cold War 2.0

Key military aspects of Cold War 2.0 include an intensified arms race in hypersonic weapons, cyber warfare capabilities, and space militarisation. Additionally, the rise of proxy conflicts, strategic military alliances, and an emphasis on grey-zone tactics—such as economic coercion and information warfare—underscore the multidimensional nature of this renewed standoff. These dynamics are reshaping global security frameworks with far-reaching implications for international stability.

Heightened Risk of Military Confrontations. China’s militarisation of the South China Sea and its increased pressure on Taiwan have elevated the risk of confrontations with the U.S. and its allies, who patrol these regions to uphold freedom of navigation. The Russia-Ukraine war has spurred NATO to reinforce Eastern European defences, increasing the chances of miscalculations and escalations. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Germany are enhancing their military capabilities in response to major powers, creating more densely armed regions. As nations become more intertwined through complex alliances and forward deployments, the potential for crises to escalate quickly grows. Miscalculations or misunderstandings could lead to rapid military responses, increasing the risk of conflict.

Expansion of Alliances and Security Pacts. The war in Ukraine reinvigorated NATO, leading countries like Finland and Sweden to join or seek membership. It has also increased defence spending, especially among European NATO members. The U.S. is strengthening alliances with countries like Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. Initiatives like AUKUS (Australia, U.K., and U.S.) exemplify new defence partnerships focused on technology sharing, particularly in nuclear-powered submarines and cyber warfare. China, meanwhile, has increased its military presence in the region and conducted joint drills with Russia.

Proxy Conflicts and Regional Instabilities. Cold War 2.0 has revived proxy conflicts, with the U.S., Russia, and China supporting opposite sides in conflicts in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. This increases regional instability as these powers compete for influence. Similar to Cold War-era proxy wars, there are areas where indirect conflicts play out, such as arms support in Yemen, Syria, and parts of Africa. Techniques like information warfare, economic pressure, and covert operations are increasingly used, allowing states to destabilise rivals without conventional conflict.

Increased Military Spending and Arms Development. Heightened tensions are prompting nations to boost defence budgets. The U.S. and China lead in military spending, while Russia, Japan, India, and several European countries also increase expenditures. The modernisation of Military-Industrial Complexes (MICs) reflects a race to develop next-generation weaponry, cyber-security capabilities, and space-based technologies. The strategic objectives include staying technologically ahead, ensuring supply security, and reinforcing national defence ecosystems. Defence sectors in the U.S., China, and Russia are seeing significant investment, but high spending can strain national budgets and lead to economic vulnerabilities, particularly in countries with weaker economies.

Securing Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals. Rare earth elements (REEs) are essential for producing advanced military technology, including missile guidance systems and radar. China currently dominates the production and processing of REEs, which has prompted the U.S., EU, and Japan to invest in alternative sources and develop domestic processing capabilities. The U.S. has signed agreements with Canada and Australia, significant allies with REE deposits, to establish REE supply chains outside Chinese control. The EU has also launched initiatives to develop rare earth mining and processing within its borders.

Supply Chain Dependencies and Resilience. The globalised defence industry, especially for high-tech components, may become vulnerable to disruptions and sabotage, impacting military readiness. Global supply chains are increasingly segmented and politicised, driven by the need to reduce reliance on potentially hostile or unstable sources. Supply chain security now plays a central role in defence strategy, and there’s a trend toward “friend-shoring,” where critical industries are moved closer to allied or domestic markets. Countries increasingly pursue joint development and production initiatives to strengthen defence supply chains, combining resources, technological expertise, and market access to reinforce allied military capacities. Western countries are working to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing for critical goods, particularly in areas like semiconductors, healthcare, telecommunications, and defence equipment. The U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and other initiatives aim to build alternative trade and supply networks, encouraging countries like India, Vietnam, and Mexico to take on more prominent roles in global supply chains.

Challenges to Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Efforts. Non-state actors and smaller nations could acquire technologies like drones, cyber tools, and precision-guided munitions, amplifying threats to global security. With the INF Treaty and Open Skies Agreement no longer in force and New START potentially at risk, the arms control framework is fragmenting. This may encourage additional nations to pursue nuclear capabilities.

Emerging Technologies in Warfare. The U.S. and China invest heavily in hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weapon systems, quantum computing, and advanced cyber-security. The U.S. aims to stay technologically superior, while China is rapidly advancing, aiming to match or exceed Western capabilities in these critical areas. Artificial intelligence, autonomous drones, and robotics are core technologies with applications for surveillance, targeting, and combat scenarios. China and Russia have tested hypersonic missiles, which can reach speeds above Mach 5 and evade conventional missile defence systems, reshaping strategic calculations. Autonomous drones, unmanned submarines, and AI-driven decision-making tools are also reshaping military tactics. AI is transforming intelligence analysis, logistics, and even combat operations. These technologies offer asymmetrical advantages and can reduce crisis response times, raising the possibility of automated escalation.

Nuclear Arms Race and Deterrence. Both China and the U.S. have expanded and modernised their nuclear arsenals. China has built hundreds of new missile silos and enhanced delivery systems, while the U.S. is investing in new nuclear-capable missiles, bombers, and submarines. Like the original Cold War, nuclear powers are re-emphasizing deterrence and signalling capability, with periodic tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and hypersonic weapons. Existing treaties, like New START, have faltered or faced resistance in extending to all major powers, leading to a less regulated nuclear landscape.

Cyber Warfare and Information Warfare Escalation. Modern warfare increasingly includes cyber and information warfare. Cyber capabilities are critical, with cyber espionage, network sabotage, and data theft frequently targeting government and military systems. Countries are building offensive and defensive cyber forces, with China, Russia, and the U.S. leading in cyber warfare capabilities. NATO has invested in its Cyber Operations Canter and collaborates on cyber defence with private cyber-security firms, reflecting the changing nature of warfare where digital and information domains are as crucial as traditional military strength.

Space Militarisation. Space has become a critical defence frontier. All major powers are developing space-based assets. The U.S., China, and Russia have established space-focused military agencies that manage satellite communications, space-based sensors, and potentially space-based weapons. The U.S. Space Force and similar programs in China and Russia signify the militarisation of space. Countries are investing in anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons and systems to ensure secure and competitive space-based communication, navigation, and intelligence capabilities. This militarisation of space requires sophisticated technology and collaboration across traditional defence contractors and tech innovators.

Maritime and Air Control. China has militarised artificial islands and increased its naval presence, heightening tensions with neighbouring countries and the U.S. Military assets like bombers, fighter jets, and aircraft carriers are being used to display power, as seen in increased air and naval operations in contested regions.

Impact of Cold War 2.0 on India’s Security

India finds itself uniquely amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions of “Cold War 2.0.” As one of the world’s emerging powers, India faces opportunities and security challenges from this evolving U.S.-China rivalry and the reassertion of Russian influence.

Tensions with China. Cold War 2.0 has escalated tensions between India and China, particularly along their disputed border in the Himalayas, where standoffs and skirmishes have become increasingly common (e.g., the 2020 Galwan Valley clash). China has expanded its military presence along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), forcing India to respond by enhancing its military infrastructure and deploying additional troops to secure the region. With cyber warfare a vital tool in Cold War 2.0, India must be prepared for cyber attacks from China that target critical infrastructure, government systems, and private companies.

Strategic Partnerships and Alliances. The U.S.-China rivalry has led India to deepen its engagement with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia. This non-military alliance is a significant strategic move that would help India counterbalance China’s influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, while benefiting from intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, and defence technology transfers. India’s growing defence partnership with the U.S. is evident in agreements like the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which enhance interoperability and intelligence-sharing between the two countries.

Naval and Maritime Security Concerns. China’s expanding naval presence in the Indian Ocean and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), primarily through ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar, present urgent strategic challenges for India. China’s military presence in these regions could jeopardise India’s control over critical sea lanes, affecting its trade and energy security. In response, India has to invest heavily in bolstering its naval capabilities and forging partnerships with countries such as the U.S., Australia, and Japan to ensure a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

Technology and Cyber-security Vulnerabilities. India faces the challenge of securing its technology infrastructure, mainly as it develops its 5G networks. Given U.S.-China tensions over companies like Huawei, India must carefully navigate its partnerships to secure technology free from foreign influence or vulnerabilities. With cyber warfare playing a central role in Cold War 2.0, India has to heighten efforts to enhance its cyber-security framework. Partnerships with the U.S. and other allies focus on intelligence-sharing and cyber defence strategies to protect critical national infrastructure from Chinese and other state-sponsored cyber threats.

Nuclear Deterrence and Security. As U.S.-China tensions spur advancements in nuclear and hypersonic weapons, there’s increased pressure on India to maintain credible nuclear deterrence, especially given its proximity to China and its longstanding rivalry with Pakistan, a Chinese ally. India’s nuclear policy may face adjustments to account for these growing regional threats. The “No First Use” policy could be revisited to enhance deterrence, while advanced missile and early warning systems are likely priorities.

Economic and Trade Implications. Amid efforts to reduce dependencies on China, Cold War 2.0 could open opportunities for India to become a manufacturing hub. The “China plus One” strategy followed by many multinational corporations has increased foreign investment in India, providing economic benefits that indirectly strengthen India’s security capabilities. India’s “strategic autonomy” policy—balancing relations with the U.S. and Russia — is increasingly difficult to maintain. The U.S. expects alignment with its policies toward China, while Russia’s growing alignment with China complicates India’s traditional ties with Moscow, especially in defence procurement.

Regional Security and Stability in South Asia. China’s economic and military investments in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar challenge India’s influence in its neighbourhood. These developments pose potential security risks as China could gain leverage over India’s neighbouring countries, potentially encircling it in a “string of pearls” strategy. U.S.-China rivalry has left a security vacuum in Afghanistan that complicates India’s security calculus, with Pakistan and China seeking to increase their regional influence. India is concerned that increased Chinese and Pakistani influence in Afghanistan could lead to heightened terrorism risks along its borders.

Modern technology and multipolar dynamics define this Cold War-like rivalry, making it less ideological but more complex than its 20th-century counterpart. The focus on non-traditional warfare and regional tensions underscores the evolving nature of military competition in the 21st century. The Cold War 2.0 has prompted a comprehensive transformation of military-industrial complexes and a strategic diversification of supply chains. The current MICs are more integrated with advanced technology sectors, collaborating with private companies to maintain a competitive edge in AI, cyber-security, and space capabilities. Simultaneously, the need for secure, resilient supply chains has led to efforts toward friend-shoring and regional production, reducing dependencies on China and minimising vulnerabilities to disruptions. These shifts indicate a move toward greater self-reliance and alliance-based defence economies, underscoring how interconnected MICs and supply chains have become integral to economic security and national defence in a highly competitive global landscape. These Cold War 2.0 repercussions are shaping a more uncertain and contested world, with direct consequences for international security, diplomacy, and the stability of global power structures.

Think it Over

Are we in the midst of Cold War 2.0

or in the beginning of World War 3.0?

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:

Allison, G. (2015). The Thucydides trap: Are the U.S. and China headed for war? The Atlantic.

Gaddis, J. L. (2005). The Cold War: A new history. Penguin Books.

Kaplan, R. D. (2018). The return of Marco Polo’s world: War, strategy, and American interests in the twenty-first century. Random House.

Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (Updated Ed.). W.W. Norton.

Nye, J. S. (2012). The future of power in the 21st century. Foreign Affairs, 91(2), 90–104.

U.S. Department of Defence. (2022). Summary of the 2022 National Defence Strategy of the United States of America. Washington, DC.

SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute). “World Military Spending Reaches All-Time High.” Press Release, 2023. https://www.sipri.org.

NATO. NATO 2030: United for a New Era. NATO Reflection Group, 2020.

Friedberg, Aaron. “The Growing Cold War with China.” Foreign Policy, 18 June 2021.

Economist. “The New Cold War.” The Economist, 22 March 2023.

Council on Foreign Relations. “China’s Military Modernization.” CFR Backgrounder, updated July 2023. https://www.cfr.org.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

December 12, 2024

556: LOYAL WINGMAN CONCEPT: REDEFINING AIR COMBAT (India’s Strategic Entry in the Program)

Pic Courtesy Net

My Article published on the EurasiaTimes website on 11 Dec 24.

The “Loyal Wingman” concept refers to an innovative approach in military aviation where autonomous or semi-autonomous drones or unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) work in tandem with piloted aircraft to perform various support and combat missions. These drones act as “wingmen” to human pilots, providing increased situational awareness, expanding mission capabilities, and reducing the risk to human pilots by taking on more dangerous or complex tasks.

Roles, Tasks and Missions. Loyal wingmen can perform numerous roles, tasks and missions. They can conduct ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) missions, gathering real-time data and electronic jamming to disrupt enemy communications, radar, or defence systems. They can carry out precision strikes against enemy targets or act as decoys to draw enemy fire, helping protect manned aircraft. They can also provide additional defensive cover to the manned flights, using onboard sensors to detect incoming threats such as missiles or hostile aircraft.

Advantages. The Loyal Wingman concept offers numerous advantages across various aspects of military operations. Multiple drones working in tandem with a manned platform allow one pilot to manage more assets, effectively increasing the overall combat power without needing additional manned aircraft. They allow a more aggressive approach without fear of losing expensive manned aircraft or risking human lives. Loyal wingmen are often equipped with advanced sensors and communication systems, allowing them to gather and share real-time intelligence with the manned aircraft. This increases the pilot’s situational awareness by providing additional eyes on the battlefield, detecting threats, and providing early warning of incoming dangers. Their modular design allows for rapid reconfiguration based on mission requirements and is more cost-effective.

Technology Enablers. The Loyal Wingman concept relies on various advanced technologies to enable autonomous drones to work alongside manned aircraft in combat operations. These technologies ensure that drones can perform tasks efficiently. AI enables Loyal Wingman drones to operate independently or semi-autonomously, making real-time decisions without constant human input. AI also allows for coordination between multiple drones and manned aircraft. Loyal Wingman drones have advanced sensors that gather data across multiple spectrums, as well as secure communications and data links. Advanced navigation systems allow them to operate in environments where GPS signals may be jammed or unavailable. Many Loyal Wingman drones are designed with low radar cross-sections (RCS), infrared suppression, and other stealth features to reduce their visibility to enemy radar and sensors. An intuitive Human-Machine interface, including voice commands, graphical interfaces, or augmented reality (AR) systems, is crucial for operational success.

Loyal Wingman Projects Under Development

Several nations and defence organisations worldwide are actively developing the Loyal Wingman concept.

Boeing Airpower Teaming System (ATS). The Boeing Airpower Teaming System (ATS) is a ground breaking unmanned combat aircraft developed by Boeing in collaboration with the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF). It is designed with advanced artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy. This allows the ATS to coordinate with manned aircraft such as the F/A-18 Super Hornet, F-35 Lightning II, or other fighter jets. The ATS can operate independently or under minimal human supervision, making real-time decisions based on mission objectives, threats, and the battlefield environment. One of the ATS’s most innovative aspects is its modular payload design. The ATS is designed to minimise its radar signature, making it more difficult for enemy forces to detect and engage. Its high speed enables it to keep up with manned fighter jets and effectively perform coordinated operations. The ATS conducted its first successful flight in March 2021, marking a significant milestone in developing unmanned teaming technology.

Skyborg. Skyborg is an ambitious program developed by the United States Air Force (USAF) to create a family of autonomous, unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) that can operate alongside manned aircraft, functioning as “loyal wingmen” and performing a wide range of missions. The Skyborg initiative is part of the broader USAF vision of developing low-cost, expendable unmanned systems to complement manned aircraft like the F-35 Lightning II, F-22 Raptor, and other next-generation platforms. The core of the Skyborg program is the development of a robust autonomy core system (ACS)—a sophisticated AI platform that allows UAVs to fly and fight with little to no human input. The Skyborg program involves partnerships with several aerospace and defence companies, including Boeing, Kratos Defense, General Atomics, and Northrop Grumman, developing different UAV platforms to test Skyborg’s AI capabilities. These companies provide the hardware and airframes, while the USAF focuses on integrating the AI systems. One of the most notable platforms associated with Skyborg is the Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie, an unmanned aerial vehicle considered a key candidate for Skyborg operations. Other platforms, like the General Atomics MQ-20 Avenger and Boeing ATS (Airpower Teaming System), are also being tested for Skyborg’s AI-driven operations. The first successful flight of a Skyborg-equipped drone took place in April 2021, when the autonomy core system was tested on a Kratos Valkyrie UAV. This marked a significant milestone in demonstrating the AI’s ability to operate autonomously, navigate, and perform essential mission functions without human intervention. The Skyborg program represents a crucial shift in the USAF’s approach to air combat, emphasising the importance of autonomous systems in future warfare.

Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie. The Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie is an experimental unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) developed by Kratos Defense & Security Solutions for the United States Air Force (USAF) as part of its Low-Cost Attritable Aircraft Technology (LCAAT) initiative. The XQ-58A is designed to function as a “loyal wingman,” supporting manned aircraft by performing various missions autonomously or under human supervision. It aims to offer a low-cost, expendable option for future combat scenarios. The XQ-58A Valkyrie is designed to operate in various roles alongside manned aircraft, such as the F-35 or F-22. The Valkyrie flew in March 2019 at Yuma Proving Ground in Arizona. Since then, it has undergone several test flights, demonstrating its ability to fly autonomously, deploy weapons, and work in tandem with manned aircraft. The ongoing development is focused on further integrating the aircraft into USAF operations and exploring its full range of mission capabilities. The project aligns with the Skyborg program.

Future Combat Air System (FCAS) Loyal Wing Man Project of Europe. The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is a major European defence initiative to develop a next-generation air combat capability. It involves several countries, primarily France, Germany, and Spain. It focuses on integrating advanced technologies into a new family of systems that will replace the ageing fleets of fighter aircraft, such as the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale. A vital aspect of the FCAS is the development of loyal wingman drones designed to work alongside manned fighter jets. The FCAS project was officially launched in 2017. The program envisions a network of systems, often called the “system of systems,” that can communicate and operate together in a complex battlefield environment. The FCAS program is structured in phases. The goal is to have a prototype of the next-generation fighter by the mid-2030s. According to recent updates, the FCAS program continues to evolve, with ongoing discussions about integrating technologies and the roles of various nations in the project.

Loyal Wing Man Project Flygplan 2020 of Sweden. The Loyal Wingman Project in Sweden, known as Flygplan 2020 (or Airplane 2020), is an initiative to develop an advanced unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that will operate alongside Sweden’s manned fighter jets, mainly the Saab JAS 39 Gripen. The Flygplan 2020 project is being developed with various partners, including defence industry stakeholders, research institutions, and the Swedish Armed Forces. Saab, a leading aerospace and defence company, plays a crucial role in the project, leveraging its aircraft design and development expertise. The Flygplan 2020 project incorporates cutting-edge technologies, including advanced avionics, communications systems, and data fusion capabilities. While specific timelines for the Flygplan 2020 project may vary, the development of loyal wingman capabilities is expected to progress in line with advancements in drone technology and changing defence needs.

Russia’s Loyal Wing Man. Like other nations, Russia is also pursuing the development of the Loyal Wingman system. The Okhotnik-B is a stealthy unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) developed by Sukhoi. It is designed for various roles, including reconnaissance and precision strikes. The Okhotnik-B features a flying wing design for reduced radar signature and is intended to operate in conjunction with manned aircraft, such as the Su-57 fighter jet. The Orion drone is designed for reconnaissance and strike missions. While not a traditional Loyal Wingman platform, its capabilities align with the concept by enabling it to operate alongside manned fighters and support them in various roles. Russian Loyal Wingman systems prioritise stealth capabilities, with designs that minimise radar cross-section and infrared signatures. Russia also aims to develop UCAVs that can operate autonomously or semi-autonomously. While Russia has made strides in developing Loyal Wingman systems, it faces challenges in achieving the same technological sophistication as in some other systems.

China’s Loyal Wingman. China has significantly advanced in developing its own Loyal Wingman systems. The CH-7 is an unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) developed by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). The CH-7 features stealthy design elements, advanced avionics, and a modular payload system, making it capable of operating alongside manned aircraft in combat scenarios. While primarily recognised as a reconnaissance and strike drone, the Wing Loong series (e.g., Wing Loong II) showcases capabilities that align with the Loyal Wingman concept. Another notable UCAV, the GJ-11, is designed with stealth features and advanced avionics. These drones are designed to coordinate with manned platforms. Chinese Loyal Wingman systems, like Russian systems, are designed to focus on low observability. China is heavily investing in AI technologies to enhance the autonomy of its Loyal Wingman systems. These drones are expected to operate semi-autonomously or autonomously, making real-time decisions during missions and adapting to changing battlefield conditions. China actively seeks to export its UAV technologies. China’s Loyal Wingman systems are expected to play a significant role in its military strategy and regional power projection.

Indian HAL’s CATS.

HAL CATS (Combat Air Teaming System) is an advanced unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) program being developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in collaboration with other Indian defence agencies. The program is part of India’s effort to develop indigenous drone technologies capable of operating alongside manned aircraft. HAL CATS aligns with the growing global trend of integrating unmanned systems with traditional fighter jets through Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T). The CATS program includes multiple drone systems and components that work synergistically with manned aircraft, particularly with India’s HAL Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and other future platforms. CATS’ key elements include the following:-

- CATS Warrior. The CATS Warrior is a loyal wingman UAV designed to fly alongside manned fighter jets, like the HAL Tejas. It can operate autonomously or under the direction of the manned aircraft, performing tasks such as reconnaissance, surveillance, and strike missions. The CATS Warrior will be armed with precision-guided munitions and can take on enemy targets independently or in support of manned aircraft. Its design focuses on being stealthy, agile, and capable of engaging in high-risk environments where manned platforms might face significant threats.

- CATS Hunter. CATS Hunter is a high-speed drone designed to act as a cruise missile capable of long-range precision strikes. It can be deployed from manned aircraft or larger UAVs and is intended for missions that require attacking heavily defended or high-value targets. It will carry advanced payloads such as precision-guided bombs and can strike enemy radar installations, command centers, and other critical infrastructure.

- CATS Alpha. CATS Alpha is a smaller, swarming drone working in groups to overwhelm enemy defences. These drones can be deployed in large numbers from manned or unmanned platforms to perform a variety of missions, including reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and decoy operations. The idea is for CATS Alpha to create confusion and disrupt enemy systems, allowing manned and larger unmanned platforms to penetrate deeper into contested areas.

- CATS Infinity. CATS Infinity is a long-range, high-altitude drone designed for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. It will operate at high altitudes for extended periods, providing continuous data to ground commanders and manned aircraft. CATS Infinity will likely monitor large areas, gather intelligence on enemy movements, and support strike planning by providing real-time data.

The HAL CATS program represents a significant step for India in developing indigenous unmanned combat systems. With increasing threats from neighbouring adversaries and a push to modernise India’s air force, CATS is crucial in bolstering the country’s aerial defence and combat capabilities. As autonomous systems become more sophisticated, HAL CATS could form the backbone of India’s future air warfare strategy. Complementing manned platforms like the Tejas and future fighters would provide a flexible, powerful, and resilient air force capable of handling modern combat challenges.

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

Link to the published article:

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/bodyguards-of-future-fighter-jets/

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:

1. Bradley Perrett “Design of Boeing’s loyal wingman gives clues about performance and roles”, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 18 Nov 2021.

1. Greg Hadley, “Wildly Successful’ Skyborg Will Become Program of Record but Won’t Stop Developing S&T”, Air & Space Forces Magazine, 16 Aug 2022.

1. KRATOS Defence, https://www.kratosdefense.com/systems-and-platforms/unmanned-systems/aerial/tactical-uavs

1. “Europe’s Competing Future Combat Air Systems”, EDR Magazine, 59 September-October 2021.

1. Thomas Newdick, “This Is Saab’s Concept For A Supersonic, Stealthy Loyal Wingman Drone”, The War Zone, 09 Feb 2024.

1. Thomas Newdick, “Russia’s Aspirational Grom Combat Drone’s Design Totally Changes, Ditches Stealth For Speed”, The War Zone, 13 Aug 2024.

1. Seong Hyeon Choi, “China’s GJ-11 stealth drone sightings hint at future role as fighter jet ‘wingmen’”, SCMP, 15 Sep 2024.

1. Prasad Gore, “Decoding HAL CATS Program” Defence XP, 06 Feb 2021.

1. Insinna Valerie, “Emerging Technology in the Air Force: The Skyborg and Loyal Wingman Programs.” Defense News, 2023.

1. “Boeing Loyal Wingman Uncrewed Aircraft Completes First Flight.” Boeing Media Release, March 2, 2021.

1. Dr Jean-Marc Rickli, Head, Global and Emerging Security Risk, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Switzerland, “Human-Machine Teaming in Artificial Intelligence-Driven Air Power: Future Challenges and Opportunities for the Air Force”. The Air Power Journal, Second Edition (2022).

1. Jing Lei, Jia-Qing Song, Yan-Yan Zhu, “Analysis of the “Loyal Wingman” Technology of UAV Cooperative Operation”, International Journal of Research in Engineering and Science (IJRES), Volume 12 Issue 3 ǁ March 2024.

Disclaimer:

December 10, 2024

555: PREVIEWING AERO INDIA 2025: EXPECTED ATTRACTIONS

Wrote this article for the Media

Air shows are events where aviation enthusiasts, industry professionals, and the general public gather to witness aerial displays and learn about the latest developments in aviation technology. These events typically combine trade exhibitions with public air displays. They include Aerobatic performances by military and civilian aircraft, demonstrations of fighter jets, helicopters, and commercial planes, static displays, trade exhibitions, and seminars. These air shows are a platform for launching new aircraft and technologies and promoting international aviation collaboration. Major international air shows include the Paris Air Show, Farnborough International Air Show (UK), Dubai Air Show (UAE), Singapore Air Show, MAKS Air Show (Russia), and Aero India.

Aero India, a global event for defence and aerospace stakeholders, is more than just a biennial air show and aerospace exhibition held at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru, India. It is a platform that unites the global aviation community, offering opportunities for collaboration and investment in the Indian defence sector. Organised by the Ministry of Defence, it is one of Asia’s most significant aerospace and defence events, showcasing both civilian and military aviation. The event includes displays by the Indian Air Force (IAF) and international aerobatic teams, static displays for public viewing, business exhibitions, seminars & conferences.

Building on the success of past editions, Aero India 2025 is set to be a landmark event. Scheduled from February 10 to 14, 2025, the event has already garnered significant interest, with over 240 exhibitors confirming their participation. The first three days will be dedicated to business visitors, providing a platform for fruitful collaborations, while the final two days will be open to the public, offering a unique opportunity to witness the latest advancements in the aerospace and defence sectors. The anticipation is palpable as the defence strategic community and journalists are already discussing the new attractions expected to be unveiled during the show.

Highlights of Aero India 2023

Aero India 2023 was held from February 13 to 17. The event’s theme was “The Runway to a Billion Opportunities.” The event showcased India’s growing defence manufacturing capabilities and promoted the “Make in India, Make for the World” initiative. Over 800 defence companies (exhibitors, businesses, investors, start-ups, and MSMEs) from 80 countries attended, including major global players like Airbus, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin. The event saw a footfall of over seven lakh visitors. The main highlights of the event were:-

- 800+ companies participated (700 Indian and about 110 foreign companies). The major exhibitors included Airbus, Boeing, Dassault Aviation, Lockheed Martin, Israel Aerospace Industry, BrahMos Aerospace, Army Aviation, HC Robotics, SAAB, Safran, Rolls Royce, Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Forge Limited, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), and BEML Limited.

- Defence Ministers from 32 countries, Air Chiefs from 29 countries, and 73 Chief Executive Officers of global and Indian original equipment manufacturers visited and participated in the event.

- Approximately 250+ MoUs/partnerships worth more than Rs 75,000 Crore were finalised. About Rs 200 crore was pledged at the maiden iDEX Investor Hub (iIH).

- India’s thrust was on self-reliance and Making in India. The intention was to enhance exports, encourage joint ventures and co-production, transfer technology, and project India as a cheaper and better option for a manufacturing hub.

- The event aimed to integrate domestic MSMEs and start-ups in the global supply chain and attract foreign investments, including partnerships for co-development and co-production.

- The event aimed to promote the export of indigenous air platforms like Light Combat Aircraft (LCA)-Tejas, HTT-40 trainer, Dornier Light Utility Helicopter (LUH), Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) and Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH).

- The Russian presence was minimal, probably due to their preoccupation with the Russia–Ukraine war. On the other hand, the USA came with many aircraft, including F-35, F-16/F-21, F-18, and B-I Bombers.

Aero India 2025: Expected Attractions.

The air show will feature the latest advancements in civil, military, and space aviation, offering domestic and international companies a platform to showcase their innovations. Highlights include spectacular aerobatic performances, cutting-edge defence technologies, and industry presentations. Exhibition pavilions will highlight India’s growing role in defence innovation. The event will offer ample networking opportunities and business development platforms for stakeholders across the aerospace and defence sectors.

Self-Reliance and Aero India. Aero India showcases cutting-edge technologies and is a testament to India’s growing self-reliance in the defence sector. The event is crucial in advancing the Indian government’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (Self-Reliant India) initiative, which aims to reduce import dependence and boost indigenous defence manufacturing. By highlighting India’s growing strength in defence manufacturing, Aero India instils a sense of pride and support for increasing self-reliance.

Showcasing Indigenous Technologies. Indian defence manufacturers (DPSUs and private sector) will actively participate in showcasing home-grown technologies. This is critical in demonstrating India’s growing capabilities in designing and manufacturing advanced defence equipment.

Collaborations and Partnerships. Aero India is a national event and a global platform for defence collaborations. It’s where Indian companies form joint ventures with international defence giants, fostering a sense of global community. Aero India facilitates international partnerships, supporting India’s goal of producing more defence equipment locally. Joint ventures with global giants like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Dassault Aviation help set up manufacturing facilities in India, aligning with the Make in India initiative. This reduces India’s reliance on imports and promotes local aircraft, parts, and avionicsproduction, strengthening our global standing in the aerospace and defence sectors.

Innovation and Research. Aero India would also highlight India’s investment in indigenous research and development (R&D). The event would underscore India’s technological advancements in defence that support national self-reliance, from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to advanced radar systems and missile technology. Indian firms’ increasing focus on designing and producing critical defence technologies locally will be showcased.

Export Opportunities. India proposes to export defence technologies, supporting self-reliance and strengthening its presence in the global defence market. Aero India will highlight the export potential of Indian-made defence products, like the Tejas fighter and advanced helicopters.

Foreign Aviation Companies Participation in Aero India. Aero India 2025 is expected to feature extensive participation from foreign aviation companies, continuing the strong international presence seen in previous editions. Major global defence manufacturers like Boeing, Dassault Aviation, Lockheed Martin, and Airbus are anticipated to return, showcasing advanced fighter jets such as the F-16, F-18, and Rafale. These companies are vying for multi-billion-dollar defence contracts with the Indian government, making Aero India a crucial negotiation platform. Additionally, foreign delegations from countries including the U.S., France, Israel, Russia, and others across Europe are expected. These firms will exhibit a variety of aerospace technologies, from advanced fighter jets and drones to cutting-edge avionics and defence systems.

Russian Presence in Aero India 2025. The Russian presence in Aero India 2023 was minimal. However, in recent times, Russia has been pursuing the sale of its defence equipment with renewed vigour. Russia is expected to have a strong presence at Aero India 2025. Russia would aim to reinforce its commitment to Indo-Russian defence ties and potentially spark interest in future collaborations or technology transfers involving advanced aerospace systems. Additionally, there is speculation that Russia might showcase its Su-57E fifth-generation stealth fighter jet.

Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). During Aero India 2025, the DRDO is expected to showcase its latest advancements in defence technology. DRDO may present its latest advancements in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), missile systems such as Akash-NG and Astra, and cutting-edge technologies supporting India’s hypersonic and space-defence initiatives. The exhibition would also focus on future-ready technologies such as hypersonic weapons, stealth technologies, and artificial intelligence-based defence systems. DRDO’s collaboration with the private sector to boost defence exports will also be a key theme.

Indian Defence PSU Participation in Aero India. Aero India 2025 will witness strong participation from India’s Defence Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), including Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), and others. These PSUs will showcase their latest advancements in Indigenous aerospace and defence technologies, supporting the government’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiative. HAL, in particular, will focus on promoting export opportunities for the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and helicopter platforms. Expect advanced radar systems, electronic warfare equipment, and communication technologies from BEL. It might also highlight AI-driven defence solutions and smart battlefield management systems. BDL will likely feature missile systems, including indigenous surface-to-air and anti-tank guided missiles. Given the increasing focus on multi-domain operations, companies like Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Garden Reach Shipbuilders may promote naval platforms.

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is the key PSU in promoting Made in India products, such as the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and Light Utility Helicopter (LUH). These platforms not only demonstrate Indian engineering and technological prowess but also enhance defence capabilities by reducing reliance on foreign suppliers. HAL is expected to showcase a wide range of aerospace innovations, and it generally showcases and announces its new projects and updates the progress of the previous ones. An update on the progress of India’s indigenous fighter aircraft projects, i.e. Tejas Mk II and fifth generation AMCA, by HAL and Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) would be expected. Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) Dhruv, LCH (Light Combat Helicopter) Prachand, and the HTT-40 trainer aircraft will likely feature prominently. HAL’s progress on its CATS Program and the indigenous fighter aircraft engine project (by GTRE), will also be eagerly awaited.

Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). There would be a significant focus on drones, swarms and autonomous systems. These will likely include military and civilian UAVs, with applications ranging from defence reconnaissance to logistics and disaster management. Considering the increased role of drones in air warfare, drone display and air display of armed drones may also be included.

iDEX in Aero India 2025. During Aero India 2025, the Innovations for Defence Excellence (iDEX) initiative is expected to have a significant presence, building on its success from previous editions. iDEX serves as a platform to connect startups and innovators with the Indian defence ecosystem, aiming to foster innovation in defence technology. In 2023, the iDEX pavilion showcased numerous startups and facilitated the maiden iDEX Investor Hub, where over ₹200 crores were pledged to support defence-related innovations. For 2025, iDEX will likely continue promoting startups through its exclusive pavilion, hosting innovation challenges, and encouraging partnerships between defence firms and new ventures. This will include networking opportunities, demonstrations of new technologies, and potentially another round of the iDEX Investor Hub to attract funding.

Air Display. Air Display during Aero India. Aero India 2025 will feature thrilling aerial displays by Indian and international aerobatic teams and military aircraft. Performances from the Indian Air Force (IAF) would likely include Sukhoi Su-30MKI and Rafale jets demonstrating combat manoeuvres, Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) showcasing its agility and advanced capabilities, and Helicopter displays by the Light Utility Helicopter (LUH). Air Display would have the Surya Kiran Aerobatic Team flying Hawk Mk132 aircraft, providing breath-taking formations, and the Sarang team performing aerobatic manoeuvres with HAL Dhruv helicopters. Aircraft from global manufacturers like the F-16, Rafale, and Eurofighter Typhoons may also be seen in the Indian skies.

The countdown to Aero India 2025 has begun. With a diverse array of attractions, including live aerobatic displays, the unveiling of new projects, and innovations from the iDEX Pavilion, the event will highlight India’s growing prominence in the global defence sector. It promises to foster collaboration between international and domestic stakeholders, providing opportunities for business growth, knowledge exchange, and technological advancement. Aero India 2025 is poised to celebrate innovation and strengthen India’s position as a key player in the global aerospace industry.

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