Category: Grey Zone

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Interesting Classification of Warfare into Generations

 

While researching for “future of warfare”, I came across an interesting article about classification of wars over the years into generations.

 

These thoughts are of  Russian military theorists Major General Vladimir Slipchenko (1935–2005). General Slipchenko is considered as one of the leading thinkers on “non-contact” and “sixth-generation” warfare.

 

Slipchenko’s while examining warfare, classifies warfare into six generations.

 

Slipchenko’s Generations of Warfare

(Source: Vladimir Slipchenko, Voiny Novogo Pokolenia – Distantsionnye i Bezkontaktnye (Moscow: Olma-Press, 2004), pp. 32– 34.

 

No Contact Warfare.  Slipchenko ties the idea of sixth-generation warfare to a concept of non-contact or contactless warfare. He conveys the idea that future war between modern states will take place without direct contact.

 

Future Warfare. Slipchenko outlined wars of the future as follows:

  • The role and importance attached to nuclear weapons will gradually decline.

 

  • Conventional long-range high-precision strike weapons will grow in importance.

 

  • Wars will be shorter than in the past.

 

  • Advanced militaries will restructure their forces from the traditional army, navy and air force to strategic attack forces and strategic defense forces.

 

  • The tactical level of warfare will decline in importance and the strategic level will become the main emphasis in future warfare.

 

  • The main role for land forces in the future will be to support the air force.

 

Seventh-Generation Warfare: Info Warfare

Slipchenko also worked on the concept of a future “seventh generation” of warfare, which he forecast could emerge in the 2050s among the most advanced military powers. Numerous aspects of this work, especially in relation to the exponential growth in the importance of information in modern and future warfare are already percolating into the modern day warfare.

 

Slipchenko ahead of his time highlighted the importance of cyber along with information in the future battle space, and also forecast this area emerging as a separate combat arm. He identifies the centrality of information in modern and future warfare, forecasting that its utility would eventually move beyond a combat support role and into the area of essentially a combat arm.

 

Slipchenko identified information as a future weapon in war similar to the destructive effect of kinetic systems, and suggested that this would influence war in its entirety from beginning to conflict termination. He estimated that info warfare will transform warfare beyond the strategic level to reach truly global scales.

 

According to Slipchenko, information superiority would be the key to gaining superiority in non-contact warfare. Domination would be required in the information domain of space systems as well as reconnaissance, warning, navigation, meteorological, command and control, and communications assets.

 

Information Confrontation. Slipchenko argued that the information confrontation demands continuous exploitation as compared to information warfare during a skirmish. Possibly hinting at exploitation of info warfare even in no war conditions (Present day Grey Zone).

 

Comments

 

Slipchenko’s Thoughts and predictions are coming true, that too ahead of expected timelines.

 

Information has become a new domain for warfare.

 

Information warfare is not in isolation but getting linked with other domains of cyber, space and electronics.

 

A new service is evolving to deal with this type of warfare (e.g. Chinese Joint Strategic Support Force).

 

This warfare is being exploited in a conflict scenario, without declaring open war i.e. Grey Zone warfare.

 

Additional Thought

 

Seventh or eighth generation warfare is also developing in another direction in parallel. The kinetic or contact warfare being fought by unmanned machines (or a combination of manned and unmanned machines). These machines will have a very high computing power, will be AI enabled and will work in a networked environment.

 

Random Observations

Sci-Fi movies become reality sooner or later.

 

Question

What are your views about the direction in which warfare is progressing ?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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References

https://jamestown.org/program/russian-military-thought-on-the-changing-character-of-war-harnessing-technology-in-the-information-age/

https://jamestown.org/program/russian-sixth-generation-warfare-and-recent-developments/

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US vs China on Taiwan: Shadow Boxing

 

Link to the earlier blog on the subject (China vs Taiwan)

 

Recently US Defence Department Spokesperson John Kirby made a statement on recent military exercises conducted by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army near the island of Taiwan. John Kirby told reporters that the US commitment to Taiwan is “rock solid” and that “the US is united with Taiwan against the current danger posed by the People’s Republic of China.”

 

Also the official Twitter accounts of the US State Department posted photos and tweets of Under Secretary of State José Fernandez and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink respectively meeting with Taipei Economic and Cultural “Representative” Bi-khim Hsiao, claiming that the US commitment to Taiwan remains rock-solid, and the US will further strengthen ties with Taiwan. Media reports said that the US has invited Hsu Yen-pu, Taiwan’s “Army Commander,” to visit the US.

 

Strong Chinese Reaction

Zhao Lijian, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry reacted strongly to these developments. Gist of his rebuttal is as follows:-

 

  • Taiwan Island is China’s territory and the US is in no position to point fingers over the Taiwan question.

 

  • US has been making negative moves to sell arms to Taiwan and strengthen official and military ties with the island, including a $750 million arms sale plan, the landing of US military aircraft on the island and frequent sailing of US warships across the Taiwan Straits. These provocative actions damage China-US relations and undermine regional peace and stability.

 

  • The remarks by the US senior official seriously violate the one-China principle, sending an extremely wrong and irresponsible signal to the outside world.

 

  • “Taiwan independence” is a dead end, and the Chinese mainland will take all necessary measures to resolutely crush any attempt at “Taiwan independence.”

 

  • China’s resolve and will to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity are firm and US should correct its mistakes and stop supporting secessionists in the island.

 

  • The embassy warned the US not to fantasise about seeking China’s support and cooperation while wantonly challenging China’s red line on the Taiwan question.

 

Analytical Thoughts

 

  • So far China and US are both shadow boxing over Taiwan issue.

 

  • It seems both are testing the waters and each other’s resolve.

 

  • It is like sumo wrestlers or boxers going round and round gauging each other, before engaging.

 

  • Besides verbal duels, once in a while the two sides resort to strategic coercion and muscle flexing.

 

  • The frequency of these acts is increasing.

 

  • Final engagement and result would depend upon – who wins the power race and world number one position.

 

  • Fate of Taiwan will determine the final result of the power race.

 

  • India has a breathing space, so long as China is preoccupied with Taiwan.

 

  • Our border dispute is still not resolved, with China claiming more and more.

 

  • If it is able to unify Taiwan, it will get encouraged to try it elsewhere.

 

Doubtful Thoughts

 

China is determined to unify Taiwan with the mainland.

 

  • Will China do it with its grey zone operations?

 

  • Will China use force to achieve her objective?

 

  • Will US fight for Taiwan?

 

  • When is this shadow boxing likely to escalate into actual engagement with throwing of punches?

 

  • Will the world get divided into two factions once again?

 

  • Will India be able to maintain policy of equidistance or get drawn towards one of the factions?

 

Random Thought

 

Western powers have been ruling the roost for a while.

Coming century is of the Asia.

 

Question

What will be India’s role, position and choices in this scenario?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

Link to the earlier blog on the subject (China vs Taiwan)

 

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