198: Shadow Boxing: Debate at the 76th Session of UN General Assembly

Pic: Courtesy The Diplomat

During the general debate on the 21 Sep 21, Speech by US and Chinese president was interesting.

 

Link to US president speech:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/21/remarks-by-president-biden-before-the-76th-session-of-the-united-nations-general-assembly/

 

Link to Chinese president Speech:

http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/22/c_1310201230.htm

 

Punches

Biden spoke about democracy and universal human rights, hinting at defending democracy and human rights from creeping authoritarianism.

 

Xi spoke only fleetingly of human rights through development and democracy as not a special right reserved to any individual country.

 

Xi used U.S. failure in Afghanistan as a counterpoint to global challenges emerging out of Covid-19 pandemic.

 

Xi’s message to developing countries is that China has emerged from deep poverty to the world’s second largest economy whereas, USA has been invading and fighting foreign wars.

 

Selling China

Xi prioritised economic development while decrying sovereignty-violating foreign military interventions.

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech constituted an explicit pitch to developing countries for a post-U.S. dominant world order hinged to China’s economic development model.

 

Xi laid out initiatives including international aid and debt relief for the needs of less-developed members of the U.N.

 

Common Denominators

 

Both leaders made specific commitments to address the global challenges of Covid-19 with pledges of vaccine doses to countries that lack them and financial support for the World Health Organization’s COVAX equitable vaccine supply initiative.

 

Climate change figured prominently in both speeches.

  • Biden promised greater government funding for “green infrastructure and electric vehicles” and $11 billion in climate aid annually by 2024 to assist poorer countries vulnerable to extreme weather and rising temperatures.
  • Xi announced that China will stop funding the construction of coal-fired power plants outside its borders.

 

Both leaders also spoke of the Afghanistan situation but with wildly different perspectives.

  • Xi called Afghanistan situation as an event demonstrating that military intervention from the outside and so-called democratic transformation entail nothing but harm.
  • Biden called the Afghanistan withdrawal a national turning point in a new era of relentless diplomacy.

 

Inferences: Another Cold War

Xi’s speech had no tone or content to ease the currently fraught U.S.-China relationship.

 

Messages from both the speeches indicate that there is very less chance of any meaningful reset in their bilateral relationship. The relationship seems to be heading towards a Cold War.

 

China is projecting itself as the alternative to the USA. China is presenting an alternative version of globalization, asking smaller countries to pick a side.

 

Bottom Line

Sumo Wrestling is going ON.

 “When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled”

 

Question

Who in your opinion will win this bout?

 

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References:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2020/05/15/welcome-to-politico-china-watcher-489237

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/21/remarks-by-president-biden-before-the-76th-session-of-the-united-nations-general-assembly/

http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/22/c_1310201230.htm

190: BOOK REVIEW: THE POLITICS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTES

Published by Book review literary Trust

BOOK REVIEW

THE POLITICS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTES

By Nehginpao Kipgen

Review by: Air Marshal Anil Khosla (Retd) PVSM, AVSM, VM

 

The South China Sea is a semi-enclosed area measuring 3.6 million square kilometres in the Pacific Ocean. It spreads from Straits of Malacca and Karimata to Taiwan straits and is bordered in the north   by China and Taiwan, the Philippines in the east, Brunei and Malaysia in    the south, and Vietnam in the west. It contains numerous islands, rocks and reefs. Major ones being Spartley islands, Paracel islands, Pratas and Natuna islands and the Scarborough shoal. The area is believed to contain rich reserves of oil, natural gas, minerals and fishery stocks. The region is considered to be a centre of future economic growth in East Asia and is also sometimes called a “second Persian Gulf”. Major sea routes of shipping pass through this area. The strategic location and the abundant resources make it a subject of interest and concern for littoral states and the international community. The security issues around it always remain in focus and it is considered to be one of the flashpoints.

Continue reading “190: BOOK REVIEW: THE POLITICS OF SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTES”

183: Taliban’s Runover: Some Factors

 

Setting and Population Density Pattern. 

  • Afghanistan’s overall population density is only about 148 people per square mile / 57 people per square kilometer (Indian population density is 1202 per square mile / 464 per square kilometer).

 

  • Even in the populated areas of Afghanistan, people are quite spread out, with only 26 percent of the population living in urban centres. This dispersed population pattern, is a challenge for the state army to defend while, it favours the Taliban’s quick-moving offensive.

 

Taliban Strategy.

  • Following the withdrawal of Western forces, the Taliban swiftly and easily occupied vast swaths of sparsely populated territory. They then used that territory to launch coordinated and fast-moving offensives.

 

  • Instead of traditional tools of warfare (like artillery and armour), the Taliban moved quickly in weaponised pickup trucks to defeat dug-in defensive They forced The Afghan forces to retreat from outposts and checkpoints to (safety of) urban areas, thereby ceding control of supply lines and major highways. This allowed Taliban forces to surround and isolate urban centers.

 

  • Local officials were quick to accept Taliban control because they had little allegiance to the central government and knew that Afghan forces were unwilling (and unable) to defend their areas from Taliban

 

Taliban Advantages.

  • Taliban enjoyed a presence throughout the country, allowing them to pressure the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in multiple locations.

 

  • The Taliban were able to conduct lightning offensives across many fronts, which fatally stressed the limited cohesion of the Afghan National Defense and Security.

 

Afghan Security Force: Challenges

  • Low force-to-space ratios meant that defenders had significant ground to cover and had to move swiftly and in a coordinated fashion to stand any chance of successfully countering Taliban threats from many The Afghan security forces were not geared up to these tasks.

 

  • The Afghan military lacked the capacity and cohesion required to stand firm and defend against fast-moving offensives across many fronts.

 

  • Afghan forces had always been heavily dependent on S. air support for troop movement, re-supply, and combat operations. In absence of the air support, the Afghan military was unable to regroup or move units around quickly.

 

  • Afghan forces were hampered by lack of cohesion, leadership, motivation, and limited training & mobility.

 

Outcome.

  • The weaknesses of the Afghan security forces, combined with the low force-to-space ratios generated by Afghanistan’s terrain and its population distribution, made a quick Taliban victory a reality.

 

  • Taliban rarely had to use force because they could leverage their geographic reach to intimidate local leaders and convince defenders to flee or surrender.

 

Lessons

  • Understanding Local conditions is Important.

 

  • One solution does not work for every problem.

 

  • Psychological (Mind) factor of any armed is important.

 

  • Besides Equipment and training, motivation and leadership is equally important.

 

There is much more to it – More coming up

 

Questions

Has the western world really understood Afghanistan?

Is the fight against terrorism being orchestrated correctly?

 

Titbit

Afghanistan is called graveyard of empires.

Britishers came and failed

Russians tried and failed.

Yanks tried for long and failed.

 

Random Thoughts

Now it is Chinese turn

(Chinese are too smart to burn their hands – they will let Pakistan do Their dirty work)

Pakistan is playing with a two edged sword.

will the nurtured snake bite back

 

Suggestions and Value additions are most welcome

 

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References

https://warontherocks.com/

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/afghanistan-taliban-uk-war-troops-b1902270.html

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-17/why-taliban-won

https://cissm.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/worst-case-scenario-assessing-impact-complete-isaf-military-withdrawal

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-army-collapse-taliban-11628958253

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-taliban-advances-afghan-military-overhauls-war-strategy-limit-losses-2021-07-22/

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-pug

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