Category: China

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454: WHAT IS COOKING IN THE DRAGON’S MILITARY CAULDRON

 

Pic Courtesy: Internet (Freepik)

 

The Purge

 

The PLA Central Military Commission (CMC) underwent a reshuffle in 2022 following the 20th National Party Congress, and a new cabinet and defence minister were appointed in early 2023 at the 14th National People’s Congress in Beijing. A number of these officials, hand-picked by President Xi Jinping for their positions in the CMC, have since been implicated in an anti-corruption investigation in China.

 

The PLA Rocket Force (PLARF). PLARF oversees China’s land-based nuclear missiles and the Equipment Development Department. PLARF’s commander and its political commissar were replaced in August 2023. Vice Admiral Wang Houbin (PLAN) replaced the PLARF commander and General Xu Xisheng (former deputy political commissar of the Southern Theatre Command) replaced the PLARF political commissar. Both replacements were drawn from outside the PLARF.

 

Defence Minister. Defence Minister Li Shangfu was ousted from his role. General Li previously served as the head of the PLA’s Equipment Development Department. The Equipment Development Department stated on its social media account that it was investigating corruption allegations related to procurement bids and the formation of private cliques within the armed forces at high levels that resulted in cronyism and a lack of focus on the core task of building combat readiness. Former defence minister Wei Fenghe (formerly commanded the PLARF) also disappeared from public view, reportedly under investigation.

 

Comments.

 

    • Corruption alone is an unlikely explanation for the removal by Xi of top military officials that he had appointed just months earlier, raising the possibility that intelligence leaks may have triggered the action.

 

    • The leadership changes also suggest that despite Xi’s calls for absolute loyalty and a zero-tolerance approach to corruption, problems within the PLA persist.

 

 

PLA Army.

 

PLA Army is studying and analysing the lessons emerging out of the Ukraine war. Some of the areas, being looked into are as follows:-

 

    • The heavy use of UAVs by both Russia and Ukraine is likely behind the higher prominence accorded to the discussion of the concept of ‘low altitude control and dominance’ by the PLA Army.

 

    • The protracted nature of the fighting in Ukraine is likely to drive the PLA Army to re-examine operational plans for long-term industrial and logistic sustainment, as well as for casualty evacuation and treatment.

 

    • Review of the recruitment process, and policies related to conscription and reservists. In 2023, the PLA revised its existing regulations covering the recruitment of civilian and military personnel, including conscripts.

 

    • Russia’s struggles to mobilise personnel for service in Ukraine would influence the CMC’s ability to conduct wartime mobilisation.

 

    • In 2023, the PLA continued to roll out new armour, artillery and air-defence platforms to its combined arms units, and the re-equipment of combined arms regiments in Xinjiang Military District now appears to be nearing completion.

 

    • PLA is continuing the re-equipment of aviation brigades with the Z-20 medium helicopter, with priority to PLA Army’s air assault formations assigned to the Eastern and Western theatre commands, as well as the Xinjiang and Tibet military districts.

 

Comments

 

    • Given the scale of a 2017 army reorganisation, a new round of major force-structure changes within the regular service is unlikely in the short term.

 

    • The PLA Reserve Force may attract greater attention.

 

    • A review of the recruitment process seems to be aimed at the goal of enlisting and retaining greater numbers of high-quality recruits, particularly college graduates and those with key scientific and engineering skill sets.

 

    • Significant changes to the army’s re-equipment plan are unlikely before the start of the next five-year plan in 2026.

 

PLA Navy.

 

Assertiveness. China’s naval and maritime security arms became increasingly assertive in their activities. China’s navy increased operations in the waters around Taiwan, while the Chinese coast guard undertook activities that bordered on aggressiveness. Beijing’s maritime militia assets, which purport to be part of its fishing fleet, conducted operations in the waters disputed with the Philippines around the Spratly Islands and in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone.

 

Force Development.

 

    • Surface Ships. The PLAN in 2023 added the eighth Type-055 (Renhai) cruiser to its operational fleet along with additional Type-054A frigates. It also launched its new Type-054B frigate, which appears to be larger and considerably more capable. The new frigate promises to be a major addition to the PLAN’s blue-water fleet as a component of future task-group deployments.

 

    • Aircraft Carrier. China is progressing with its third indigenous aircraft carrier, the Fujian (Type-003). It is claimed to be more potent and capable than the existing Liaoning (Type-001) and the Shandong (Type-002) aircraft carriers. The new carrier is expected to be commissioned in 2025.

 

    • Submarines. PLAN’s focus has increased towards developing sub-surface forces. Those efforts include the development of the new-generation Type-095 nuclear-powered attack submarine and Type-096 nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine. It is assessed that the PLAN has equipped its Type-094 ballistic missile boats with a longer-range submarine-launched ballistic missile, the JL-3 (CH-SS-N-20). That would represent a significant step up in capability.

 

    • Amphibious Capability. PLA Navy appears to be strengthening its LHD forces. It launched the fourth Type-075 Yushenclass LHD in December. The navy has also added at least two new Zubr-class air-cushion landing craft to its inventory, as well as other landing craft.

 

Force Deployment. PLAN is expanding its pattern of long-range deployments.

 

    • The PLA Navy continued to develop its bluewater deployment capabilities, including with more significant formations. Units led by Type-075 (Yushen) amphibious assault ships (LHDs) made two forays into the Western Pacific, including waters near Japan.

 

    • PLA Navy also gradually pushed carrier operations further out with the Liaoning and Shandong sailing out towards Guam and undertaking more intense air operations. The PLAN, in September 2023, carried out a further large-scale carrier exercise in the Western Pacific.

 

    • The PLAN carried out exercises with Russia and Iran and with Russia and South Africa, port visits in the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan, and a rare foray to Africa’s Atlantic coast with a port visit to Nigeria. Another set of manoeuvres with Russia off Alaska in August 2023 further underscored that the.

 

 

Comments.

 

    • The PLAN is now regularly and widely hyped as ‘the world’s largest navy’.

 

    • While the PLAN’s fleet has evolved to be more modern, it still lags behind the US Navy in terms of total tonnage and capability. The gap seems to be narrowing.

 

    • PLAN, despite its increasing emergence in the world’s oceans, is still significantly concentrated in waters closer to home.

 

PLA Air Force

 

The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) received considerable numbers of combat aircraft in 2023, in part from an unexpected source. Along with the new-build Chengdu J-10C Firebird, Shenyang J-16 Flanker N and Chengdu J-20 multi-role fighter aircraft, the service received upward of 200 tactical combat aircraft from the PLAN. Many of the transferred aircraft are unlikely to be retained in the medium term. The initial version of the Xi’an JH-7, the JH-7 Flounder A, as well as the even older Shenyang J-8 Finback, may be retired.

 

Maritime Air. The PLAN appears to be divesting itself of almost all its land-based multi-role fighters, ground attack aircraft, bomber aircraft and numerous air bases. The PLAAF appears to be taking on the roles of the transferred formations. The PLA Air Force would, therefore, be responsible for land-based maritime strike tasks, requiring considerable coordination with the PLAN. The addition of the PLAN aircraft will bolster the PLAAF’s inventory of modern aircraft types.

 

J-20 Aircraft.  The J-20 heavy multi-role fighter is the premier combat aircraft in PLAAF service, introduced in 2017–18. China had built around 200 J-20s by the fourth quarter of the year and operates six operational brigades equipped with it.  An upgraded J-20 is undergoing flight tests. The aircraft’s forward fuselage has been modified with a revised cockpit profile and a raised fuselage section to the rear of the cockpit. The aircraft may have been fitted with the Shenyang WS-15 afterburning turbofan engine. The WS-15 offers more power than the previously used Shenyang WS-10.

 

Other Aircraft.

 

    • The PLAAF continued to induct Shenyang’s two-seat J-16 Flanker aircraft, enhancing its long-range surface-attack capability. As an air-to-air platform, it is likely to carry under development PL-17 (CH-AA-X-12) very long-range air-to-air missile.

 

    • PLAAF’s low-observable bomber, the Xi’an H-20 continues to be under development.

 

    • The roles of the PLAAF bomber force continued to expand. The Xi’an H-6 carries the air-launched Mach 3+ WZ-8 reconnaissance UAV that, post-release, climbs to an altitude of up to 100,000 feet to fly its mission profile. The WZ-8 has now entered service.

 

Comments

    • There is an important lesson to be learnt (Indivisibility of airpower) from China’s reorganisation and placing all the air assets and roles under the PLAAF.

 

    • China’s aviation industry is well established.

 

    • PLAAF is expanding rapidly in numerical strength.

 

    • Doubts still exist about the stated and claimed capabilities of its aircraft.

 

PLA Rocket Force

 

The PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) has been enhancing and expanding its capabilities across all ranges, at varying qualitative and quantitative paces. The PLARF’s capabilities are evolving most rapidly through the introduction of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) to replace some medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) that are being retired.

 

DF-26 with Swappable Warheads. Variants of the DF-21 (CH-SS-5) MRBM, including the nuclear-armed DF-21A (CH-SS-5 Mod 2) and conventional DF-21C (CH-SS-5 Mod 4), are being swiftly replaced by the longer-range DF-26 (CH-SS- 18) IRBM. The DF-26 is designed to allow crews to rapidly swap conventional and nuclear warheads and to conduct precision strikes against land and maritime targets up to the second island chain.

 

Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV). The PLARF is also developing and inducting an IRBM armed with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) that appears to be similar to the DF-26 and is known as the DF-27 (CH-SS-X-24).  The PLARF is re-equipping some of its brigades (in eastern China) with the DF-17 (CH-SS-22) medium-range missile carrying an HGV. The DF-17’s HGV is more manoeuvrable and therefore more capable of evading adversary missile defences than traditional ballistic missiles of similar ranges. Its features suggest the weapon was developed to strike high-value targets such as air and missile defences at the outset of a conflict, opening the way for less manoeuvrable systems to reach their objective with a lower probability of being intercepted.

 

ICBMs with MIRV. China continues to modernise its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) forces. The DF-41 (CH-SS-20) is the PLARF’s newest ICBM and is equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), thereby providing China with a higher number of warheads with a smaller force. The DF-41 brigades will be equipped with fewer launchers than with the DF-31.

 

Enhancement of Survivability and Responsiveness. PLARF is upgrading the DF-31A (CH-SS-10 Mod 2) to the more mobile and responsive DF-31AG configuration with an integrated transport erector launcher that is off-road capable. The PLARF is also expanding a small number of silos for the older DF-5 (CH-SS-4) ICBM at several locations. A 2021 report also revealed that China was building three large ICBM silo fields (in the. western part of the country), to enhance survivability and responsiveness.

 

Comments.

 

    • The DF-26’s so-called hot-swappable warhead would introduce a potential escalation dilemma, adversaries targeted with the weapon may be unsure if they are under nuclear or conventional attack before the warhead detonates.

 

    • Hypersonic weapons and MIRV capability will change the dynamics of warfare and start a new arms race.

 

    • China may be moving from a stated policy of nuclear no-first-use and a minimum credible deterrent to a launch-on-warning posture.

 

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References and credits

The International Institute for Strategic Studies, “The Military Balance 2024”.

To all the online sites and channels.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

References:-

The International Institute for Strategic studies, “The Military Balance 2024”.

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444: Ritu’s Column:  China’s Newest FC-31 Gyrfalcon Stealth Jet

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

Ritu Sharma is a journalist, with a Master’s Degree in Conflict Studies and Management of Peace from the University of Erfurt, Germany. Her areas of interest include Asia-Pacific, the South China Sea, and Aviation history. She has been writing on subjects related to defence, foreign affairs, and nuclear technology for the last 15 years. She has written for PTI, IANS and The New Indian Express. Presently she is writing for the EurAsian Times.  

 

Her informative article on the subject was published on 13 Jan 2024 on “The EurAsian Times”

 

(Views of the author are her own)

 

‘Stolen Tech’ From F-35 & F-22 Raptor, How Powerful IsChina’s Newest FC-31 Gyrfalcon Stealth Jet?

 

The news about Pakistan showing interest in the Chinese FC-31 Gyrfalcon (formerly known as the J-31) has generated quite a buzz in South Asia, with military watchers talking about it altering the balance of power in the Indian subcontinent. But experts feel that, at best, it is a tempest in a teacup.

 

The grapevine about Pakistan’s interest in purchasing FC-31 has been going on for some time. However, the Islamic Republic’s lack of economic resources and choices to replace its ageing fleet of F-16s and Mirages make the Chinese fighter jet its only option. Its JF-17 fleet is also facing technical issues. The FC-31 is yet to enter the PLA-Air Force but the Pakistan Air Force has made its interest official.

 

Air Marshal Anil Khosla (retired), former Vice Chief of the Indian Air Force, calls it “a marriage of convenience”. The sale to Pakistan will help China to claim the exportability of its aircraft. The aircraft with PAF will provide the Chinese manufacturer with a free trial ground. At the same time, it will help Beijing in exerting more control over Islamabad by making them more dependent,” Khosla told the EurAsian Times.

 

The EurAsian Times decided to compare Indian Rafale – a 4.5 generation combat-proven fighter jet from the French aerospace maker Dassault Aviation; and FC-31 – the underdevelopment 5th generation fighter jet developed by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation. On the face of it, both aircraft are twin-engine, single-cockpit, multi-role fighter jets.

 

Design & Capabilities: Rafale Vs J-31

 

The design philosophy behind Dassault’s Rafale (meaning ‘Gust of Wind’) has been to pack more punch in the fighter jet. The Rafale is one of the most advanced fighter jets of the present times and is designed to carry out omni-role missions. It can perform seven types of missions – Air-defence/air superiority/air policing, Reconnaissance, nuclear deterrence, Air-to-ground precision strike, Battlefield air strikes, anti-ship attacks, and buddy-buddy refuelling.

 

The French fighter jet features a delta wing with close-coupled canards that provide stability throughout the whole flight envelope. It improves Rafale’s combat performance, even at a high angle of attack.

 

The airframe of Rafale extensively uses composite materials; they account for 70 per cent of the wetted area. This increases the max take-off weight to empty weight ratio compared with traditional airframes built of aluminum and titanium by 40 percent.

 

On the other hand, the limited information about the FC-31 indicates that it was designed to provide close support and air-to-ground bombing. Its design also suggests that it might have been designed for carrier use.

 

Many observers have noted the stark resemblance that the FC-31 has with the American F-35. The flat tail and twin engines of FC-31 seem to be derived from the F-22, and the front end resembles the F-35. This doesn’t come as a surprise as the 2014 “U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission” Congressional report cited a Defence Science Board finding that Chinese cyber-attacks have siphoned off crucial specs and technical details of a range of US weapons systems—including the F-35.

 

The Chinese composite material industry had a late start. Russia helped for some time, but sanctions have slowed the import of Radar Absorbent Material (RAM).

 

The J-31 uses 3D laser-printed components in large amounts to save weight. The J-31 features advanced stealth technology, including a carefully designed shape and radar-absorbent materials, to reduce its radar cross-section and enhance survivability on the battlefield.

 

Rafale Vs J-31: Engines

 

When it comes to engines, Rafale is powered by two Snecma M882 (Thrust to Weight Ratio: 5.68:1 dry and8.52:1 with afterburner) new generation turbofan engines generating 2×75 kN of thrust and can achieve a maximum speed of Mach 1.8.

 

Besides ensuring a high serviceability rate, Dassault Aviation made some India-specific modifications to the 4.5-generation fighter jets. The modifications included an engine that can start up to 12000 feet. The specification caters to the threat India faces on its eastern border.

 

Within a few months of its induction, the IAF had Rafale fighter jets armed with MICA air-to-air missiles on their wingtips flying in Ladakh, its northernmost sector. Post heightened tension along the Indo-China border, India has been augmenting its capabilities to operate in the region.

 

In contrast, the FC-31 prototype was powered by two Russian engines, RD-93, with an afterburning thrust of2×81 kN (Thrust to weight ratio: 4.82 dry, 7.9 afterburning). The engine’s thrust-to-weight ratio indicates that the FC-31s engine is heavier and provides lesser thrust as compared to Rafale’s lighter engines.

 

The engines could be the chink in FC-31’s armour. After some time, Shenyang Aircraft Corporation replaced the RD-93 turbofans with new stealthy engines WS-13 from Guizhou Aircraft Industry Corporation. Beijing has offered the same engine for the technically troubled JF-17 exported to the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), but Pakistan has refused.

 

“The Chinese are trying hard to market their WS-13 engine. I am not sure if the engine is any good. But, PAF had refused to accept it for their JF-17s. Now, with J-31 as a sweetener, the WS-13 is going to find its way into PAF. Eventually, it might also find its way into PAF JF-17s,” a source told the EurAsian Times.

 

There have been reports about the aircraft finally being fitted by the more modern WS-19 engines currently under development.

 

Rafale Vs J-31: Armament

 

With its 10-tonne empty weight, the Rafale is fitted with 14 hard points (13 on the Rafale M). Five of them are capable of carrying heavy ordnance or drop tanks. The total external load capacity is more than nine tonnes (20,000 lbs.).

 

The Rafale has been cleared to operate a wide range of weapons, including air-to-air missiles, air-to-ground missiles, bombs, and guns. The Indian Rafales can deploy the Meteor very long-range air-to-air missile, the MICA air-to-air “Beyond Visual Range” (BVR) interception, the HAMMER rocket boosted air-to-ground precision-guided weapon, the SCALP long-range stand-off missile, laser-guided bombs, and classic non-guided bombs. The fighter jet has a 30 mm internal cannon that can fire 2500 rounds/min. Meteor gives Indian Rafales the capability to shoot down enemy aircraft over 100 kilometres without having to cross the border. Rafales are going to be part of India’s nuclear triad when Brahmos integrates with the platform.

 

In comparison, the Shenyang FC-31 stealth fighter can be fitted with one internal cannon, two internal weapons bays in the fuselage, and three payload hard points on each of the two wings. Each internal weapons bay can accommodate up to two missiles. The FC-31 could carry larger missiles like the YJ-12 anti-ship missile under its wings, but like with the F-35, at the cost of its stealth.

 

FC-31Avionics Onboard

 

The Rafale is the first European combat aircraft to use an active electronic scanning radar, giving it greater situational awareness in detecting and tracking multiple targets.

 

Rafale’s “multi-sensor data fusion” has earned accolades for reducing pilot workload and increasing situational awareness within and outside the boundaries of the combat sphere. Rafale allows the pilot to act as a true“tactical decision maker” rather than being only a sensor operator.

 

The Indian Rafales are equipped with the Thales Areos recon pod, which can be used from a high-altitude stand-off distance and even at extremely low levels. But it is also integrated with Israeli Litening Pod to maintain commonality with other fighter jets in IAF, such as Mirage-2000, Su-30 MKI, MiG-29 UPG, and SPECAT Jaguar.

 

The single-seated cockpit of the Shenyang FC-31 is confined by a two-piece transparent canopy to enhance the pilot’s visibility during flight. It is also designed to use the KLJ-7A Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA)radar by Nanjing Research Institute of Electronics Technology (NRIET) and Distributed Aperture System (DAS)optical early warning system.

 

Stealth

 

The FC-31 is essentially designed with increased stealth features. The Indian Rafale F3R boasts Spectra and a low-band jammer that can jam the frequency of any radar and become invisible. “It is a dichotomy. The Rafale can jam the radars to become invisible, but if the moment a stealth aircraft uses its jammer, he will be caught on the adversary’s sensors,” another military aviation specialist opined.

 

The French aircraft maker also catered to the Indian demand for a different Jammer and enhanced radar capabilities like Non-Cooperative Target Recognition (NCTR) mode, Doppler Beam Sharpening, and synthetic aperture Radar modes in Radar. It also has Ground Moving Target Track modes in the Radar.

 

The Indian Rafale also has the Infrared Search and Track (IRST) sensor that differentiates it from its French counterpart. The IRST gives an edge to Rafale to detect and track airborne targets and the sensor can be used in conjunction with the radar or independently. This is a passive system and doesn’t emit any radiation of its own. It gives Rafale the capability to detect other targets while remaining undetected.

 

Combat Development

 

The first Rafale F1 was delivered to the French Navy exactly a decade later, on May 18, 2001. Since then, France has deployed this combat jet in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and Mali, where it flew its longest mission in 2013, spanning nine hours and 35 minutes. From Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, Iraq, and Syria, Rafale jets “outclassed” its enemies everywhere and have never-ever been shot down.

 

In 2011, French Air and Space Force and French Navy Rafale fighters were successfully engaged in coalition operations over Libya. They were the first fighters to operate over Benghazi and Tripoli. During the Libyan conflict, hundreds of targets – tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery emplacements, storage dumps, command centres, and air defence systems (fixed and mobile SAM launchers) – were hit with controlled accuracy by Rafale aircrews.

 

This column is still blank for FC-31 and probably the sale to PAF will help the Chinese aerospace makers to script a few achievements under this head.

 

Conclusion

In the words of Air Marshal Khosla, “Should India take cognizance of the development in the neighbourhood –Yes. Should India be worried – No. Instead, India should address the issue.” The retired Vice-Chief of the IAF doesn’t advise diversifying the already diverse inventory of the force to meet the challenge; he suggests accelerating indigenous projects like Tejas Mk2 and Advanced Multi-role Combat Aircraft (AMCA). Also, the IAF could go in for two more squadrons of already tested, selected, and inducted Rafale aircraft.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

 

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

 

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441: RITU’S COLUMN: Asian Space Race Heats Up

 

Pic Courtesy: Internet

 

Ritu Sharma is a journalist, with a Master’s Degree in Conflict Studies and Management of Peace from the University of Erfurt, Germany. Her areas of interest include Asia-Pacific, the South China Sea, and Aviation history. She has been writing on subjects related to defence, foreign affairs, and nuclear technology for the last 15 years. She has written for PTI, IANS and The New Indian Express. Presently she is writing for the EurAsian Times.  

 

Her informative article on the subject was published on 28 feb 2024 on “The EurAsian Times”

(Views of the author are her own)

 

Asian ‘Space Race’ Heats-Up!

 

China Plans 100 Satellite Launches In 2024, as India Gears-Up For 1st Manned Space Voyage. The two countries of over 1.4 billion population have been jostling for influence in the world when not having stand-off over borders. India and China are gearing up to compete on a new frontier – Space.India has revealed the identity of the four cosmonaut designates for its first manned space mission and China is going to have two manned spaceflight missions besides 100 orbital launches.

 

India

 

This week, India announced 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment in its space sector, spurring its growth. At present, the Indian space economy is valued at around US $8.4 billion, with a 2 per cent share in the global space economy. It is projected to reach US $44 billion by 2033 with about 8 per cent global share. And by 2040, it is expected to be a trillion-dollar industry.

 

Since the Indian government opened the sector for private players, 100 deep tech start-ups have sprung up. With Russia embroiled in the war in Ukraine, satellite launch services are predicted to be the fastest-growing segment in the Indian space economy, followed by satellite manufacturing. In the last 10 years, India launched about 400 satellites, whereas 10 years before that, only 33 satellites were launched.

 

The first Indian human spaceflight is scheduled to be launched in 2024-25. The spacecraft will take a crew of three and orbit around the Earth before being brought back to Earth. Revealing the identity of the four Indian Air Force pilots trained to go to space in an Indian-built spacecraft, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “By 2035, India will have its space station that will help us study the unknown expanses of space. In this period of Amrit Kaal, Indian astronauts will land on the surface of the moon on our rocket.”

 

Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) reached for the moon with its ambitious Chandrayaan-2. It was a technological leap for the space organization.

 

China

Meanwhile, China achieved a significant milestone in space exploration by sending its first manned mission on October 15, 2003. During this historic event, the Shenzhou V spacecraft, launched by a Long March 2F rocket, carried a single astronaut named Yang Liwei into orbit. This made China the third country to send humans into space after the US and Russia. Since then, China has taken giant strides in its manned space program with successful rendezvous and docking missions with the Tiangong-1 space station module.

 

In comparison to India, China’s space station is entering the normal operation stage, and within 2024, there will be two cargo spacecraft missions, two manned spaceflight missions, and two return missions.

 

The China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) recently unveiled the names of the new vehicles for future manned lunar exploration missions. The new manned spacecraft is named Mengzhou, which means “dream vessel.” The lunar lander is named Lanyue, which means “embracing the moon.” China plans to land its taikonauts (astronauts) on the moon before 2030.

 

China’s state-owned space giant China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) released the annual blue paper, which asserted that China’s space program is set to witness new milestones in 2024, with around 100 orbital launches planned. China is creating multiple satellite constellations.

 

China’s current Yaogan series of spy satellites allowed constant surveillance across the South China Sea, the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, Tibet, and also Galwan, where the Indian and Chinese soldiers had a deadly clash. For global navigation purposes, China is depending on a 35-satellite Beidou constellation.

 

According to a statement the CASC sent to the Chinese government-owned Global Times, Beijing has scheduled nearly 70 orbital launches for 2024, aiming to send some 290 spacecraft into space.

 

Among the missions, newly-developed Long March-6C and Long March-12 carrier rockets will execute their maiden flight missions. China’s much-anticipated Phase-4 lunar probe mission will see new progress, including the launch of the Queqiao-2 relay satellite and Chang’e-6 mission, which will bring back the first lunar sample from the South Pole-Aitken Basin on the far side of the moon.

 

In 2023, China executed 67 launch missions, the second highest in the world, and 221 spacecraft were developed and launched. The blue paper said it broke Chinese records for launch frequency and spacecraft quantity.

 

The Long March series of carrier rockets successfully launched 47 times with a perfect success rate, breaking through 500 launches cumulatively, and other commercial rockets launched 20 times.

 

Space: The Next Frontier

 

China’s space exploration has evoked considerable interest, caution, and concern from the US, which considers it a top security concern.

 

The US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment, published on April 13, 2021, mentions that Chinese civilian space programs, such as a future space station and a network of navigation satellites, are capabilities that China is pursuing that could be a threat to the United States.

 

Space technology has a dual purpose. There is apprehension that China could use civilian space programs as a cover for military advancements. For instance, a country can develop a satellite capable of conducting rendezvous and proximity operations for refuelling or debris removal from space. But the same technology can be used to attack an adversary’s satellite, degrade its orbit, or simply get close enough to have a look. Repurposing a rocket’s second stage for commercial or scientific use has military applications such as hosting payloads or sensors.

 

In 2007, the Chinese space program drew international criticism after Beijing conducted an unannounced test in 2007 in which it used a missile to blow up a defunct Chinese satellite. This created debris that posed a threat to other space assets. India also conducted its Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test on March 27, 2019.

 

The lower earth orbit is becoming “congested, competitive and contested.” Tiny shards of metal can pose a danger, and the number of objects is growing rampantly. In 2021, the US Space Command is now tracking more than 48,000 in near-Earth orbit, including satellites, telescopes, space stations, and pieces of debris of all sizes, up from 25,000 just three years ago.

 

While the doubt over China’s intent has evoked apprehension about its space program, the US signed a deal with India in 2023 to send a manned spaceship with an Indian astronaut to the International Space Station. ISRO and the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have agreed to launch a joint mission to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2024. This could be the precursor to ISRO’s Gaganyaan (meaning spaceship) – the manned mission to space scheduled to happen by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. NASA will provide advanced training to ISRO astronauts to launch a joint mission to the ISS in 2024.

 

India also signed the Artemis Accords, which are a set of principles and guidelines for countries seeking to explore the moon, Mars, and beyond. The American-led effort seeks to maintain a permanent presence in the lunar orbit and on the moon’s surface, more than half a century after the Apollo missions put the first human on the moon’s surface. China is not part of it. The accords set up the basis for international cooperation in space exploration. The multilateral arrangement is meant to make humans “interplanetary species” as they venture onto Mars. The accord will pave the way for the 26 signatory countries to share data, technology, and resources to realize lunar exploration.

 

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.

 

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