Category: China

Posted on

558: COLD WAR REDUX: MILITARY ASPECTS OF COLD WAR 2.0

Pics Courtesy Net

 

Presented my Paper during the National Conference on Cold War 2.0 at Reva University 0n 14 Dec 24.

 

“Cold War 2.0” refers to the resurgence of strategic competition, primarily between the United States and China, but also involving Russia and other global players. The military repercussions of Cold War 2.0 are profound, impacting global security, defence strategies, alliances, and the development of cutting-edge technologies. As the U.S., China, Russia, and other nations adjust to this renewed strategic competition. This modern geopolitical rivalry differs from the original Cold War but still shares significant military aspects.

 

Cold War 2.0

 

While ‘Cold War 2.0’ resembles the original Cold War, it is a distinct and modern iteration marked by new issues and complexities. This contemporary version shares some similarities with its predecessor but also differs in crucial ways, reflecting the evolution of global dynamics.

 

Key Drivers of Cold War 2.0

 

    • Technological and Economic Rivalry. Unlike the ideological battle of capitalism vs. communism during the original Cold War, today’s competition revolves around technological dominance and economic power. The U.S. and China compete fiercely over technologies like AI, quantum computing, semiconductors, and 5G networks, considered strategic assets.

 

    • Military Posturing. While direct military confrontation is unlikely, the U.S. and China (and, to some extent, Russia) are investing heavily in modernising their militaries. This includes advancements in cyber capabilities, nuclear arms, space defence, and hypersonic weapons.

 

    • Influence and Alliances. The U.S. is strengthening alliances through initiatives like AUKUS (Australia-UK-U.S. security pact) and Quad (U.S., Japan, India, and Australia), which focus on countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. China, in turn, builds influence through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aiming to expand economic influence in Asia, Africa, and Europe.

 

    • Cyber Warfare and Information Manipulation. Cyber attacks, espionage, and misinformation campaigns are central to Cold War 2.0. Often attributed to state-backed actors, these efforts target critical infrastructure, government agencies, and private enterprises to gain a strategic advantage.

 

    • Space Race. Space is now a potential battleground, with the U.S. and China investing in capabilities to assert dominance in outer space. This includes satellite technology, anti-satellite weapons, and plans for potential lunar exploration bases.

 

Differences from the Original Cold War

 

    • Interconnected Economies. Unlike the U.S. and Soviet Union, which had limited economic ties, the U.S. and China are deeply interwoven economically. Trade dependencies complicate outright antagonism and make the situation more complex.
    • Ideological Tension. While ideology still plays a role (with China promoting an authoritarian governance model), the rivalry is not purely ideological. The focus is more on pragmatic control over global norms, standards, and resources rather than on spreading a single political ideology worldwide.
    • Multipolar World. The Cold War had two superpowers, but today’s world is multipolar. Other major players, including the European Union, India, and Brazil, add nuance to global power dynamics and complicate the binary nature of the U.S.-China rivalry.

 

Implications

 

    • If this Cold War 2.0 continues, it could have wide-ranging and potentially destabilising consequences.
    • Global Supply Chain Decoupling. Increased tariffs, restrictions on technology transfers, and efforts to localise supply chains might lead to a more bifurcated global economy.
    • Fragmented Technology Ecosystems. Competing standards for technologies (like internet governance or 5G) could lead to incompatible systems in different parts of the world, affecting everything from telecommunications to digital commerce.
    • Increased Regional Tensions. Areas like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Ukraine (regarding U.S.-Russia relations) may become flashpoints as major powers assert control in contested regions.

 

Military Aspects of Cold War 2.0

 

 

Key military aspects of Cold War 2.0 include an intensified arms race in hypersonic weapons, cyber warfare capabilities, and space militarisation. Additionally, the rise of proxy conflicts, strategic military alliances, and an emphasis on grey-zone tactics—such as economic coercion and information warfare—underscore the multidimensional nature of this renewed standoff. These dynamics are reshaping global security frameworks with far-reaching implications for international stability.

 

Heightened Risk of Military Confrontations. China’s militarisation of the South China Sea and its increased pressure on Taiwan have elevated the risk of confrontations with the U.S. and its allies, who patrol these regions to uphold freedom of navigation. The Russia-Ukraine war has spurred NATO to reinforce Eastern European defences, increasing the chances of miscalculations and escalations. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Germany are enhancing their military capabilities in response to major powers, creating more densely armed regions. As nations become more intertwined through complex alliances and forward deployments, the potential for crises to escalate quickly grows. Miscalculations or misunderstandings could lead to rapid military responses, increasing the risk of conflict.

 

Expansion of Alliances and Security Pacts.  The war in Ukraine reinvigorated NATO, leading countries like Finland and Sweden to join or seek membership. It has also increased defence spending, especially among European NATO members. The U.S. is strengthening alliances with countries like Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. Initiatives like AUKUS (Australia, U.K., and U.S.) exemplify new defence partnerships focused on technology sharing, particularly in nuclear-powered submarines and cyber warfare. China, meanwhile, has increased its military presence in the region and conducted joint drills with Russia.

 

Proxy Conflicts and Regional Instabilities. Cold War 2.0 has revived proxy conflicts, with the U.S., Russia, and China supporting opposite sides in conflicts in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. This increases regional instability as these powers compete for influence. Similar to Cold War-era proxy wars, there are areas where indirect conflicts play out, such as arms support in Yemen, Syria, and parts of Africa. Techniques like information warfare, economic pressure, and covert operations are increasingly used, allowing states to destabilise rivals without conventional conflict.

 

Increased Military Spending and Arms Development. Heightened tensions are prompting nations to boost defence budgets. The U.S. and China lead in military spending, while Russia, Japan, India, and several European countries also increase expenditures. The modernisation of Military-Industrial Complexes (MICs) reflects a race to develop next-generation weaponry, cyber-security capabilities, and space-based technologies. The strategic objectives include staying technologically ahead, ensuring supply security, and reinforcing national defence ecosystems. Defence sectors in the U.S., China, and Russia are seeing significant investment, but high spending can strain national budgets and lead to economic vulnerabilities, particularly in countries with weaker economies.

 

Securing Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals. Rare earth elements (REEs) are essential for producing advanced military technology, including missile guidance systems and radar. China currently dominates the production and processing of REEs, which has prompted the U.S., EU, and Japan to invest in alternative sources and develop domestic processing capabilities. The U.S. has signed agreements with Canada and Australia, significant allies with REE deposits, to establish REE supply chains outside Chinese control. The EU has also launched initiatives to develop rare earth mining and processing within its borders.

 

Supply Chain Dependencies and Resilience. The globalised defence industry, especially for high-tech components, may become vulnerable to disruptions and sabotage, impacting military readiness. Global supply chains are increasingly segmented and politicised, driven by the need to reduce reliance on potentially hostile or unstable sources. Supply chain security now plays a central role in defence strategy, and there’s a trend toward “friend-shoring,” where critical industries are moved closer to allied or domestic markets. Countries increasingly pursue joint development and production initiatives to strengthen defence supply chains, combining resources, technological expertise, and market access to reinforce allied military capacities. Western countries are working to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing for critical goods, particularly in areas like semiconductors, healthcare, telecommunications, and defence equipment. The U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and other initiatives aim to build alternative trade and supply networks, encouraging countries like India, Vietnam, and Mexico to take on more prominent roles in global supply chains.

 

Challenges to Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Efforts.  Non-state actors and smaller nations could acquire technologies like drones, cyber tools, and precision-guided munitions, amplifying threats to global security. With the INF Treaty and Open Skies Agreement no longer in force and New START potentially at risk, the arms control framework is fragmenting. This may encourage additional nations to pursue nuclear capabilities.

 

Emerging Technologies in Warfare. The U.S. and China invest heavily in hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weapon systems, quantum computing, and advanced cyber-security. The U.S. aims to stay technologically superior, while China is rapidly advancing, aiming to match or exceed Western capabilities in these critical areas. Artificial intelligence, autonomous drones, and robotics are core technologies with applications for surveillance, targeting, and combat scenarios. China and Russia have tested hypersonic missiles, which can reach speeds above Mach 5 and evade conventional missile defence systems, reshaping strategic calculations. Autonomous drones, unmanned submarines, and AI-driven decision-making tools are also reshaping military tactics. AI is transforming intelligence analysis, logistics, and even combat operations. These technologies offer asymmetrical advantages and can reduce crisis response times, raising the possibility of automated escalation.

 

Nuclear Arms Race and Deterrence. Both China and the U.S. have expanded and modernised their nuclear arsenals. China has built hundreds of new missile silos and enhanced delivery systems, while the U.S. is investing in new nuclear-capable missiles, bombers, and submarines. Like the original Cold War, nuclear powers are re-emphasizing deterrence and signalling capability, with periodic tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and hypersonic weapons. Existing treaties, like New START, have faltered or faced resistance in extending to all major powers, leading to a less regulated nuclear landscape.

 

Cyber Warfare and Information Warfare Escalation. Modern warfare increasingly includes cyber and information warfare. Cyber capabilities are critical, with cyber espionage, network sabotage, and data theft frequently targeting government and military systems. Countries are building offensive and defensive cyber forces, with China, Russia, and the U.S. leading in cyber warfare capabilities. NATO has invested in its Cyber Operations Canter and collaborates on cyber defence with private cyber-security firms, reflecting the changing nature of warfare where digital and information domains are as crucial as traditional military strength.

 

Space Militarisation. Space has become a critical defence frontier. All major powers are developing space-based assets. The U.S., China, and Russia have established space-focused military agencies that manage satellite communications, space-based sensors, and potentially space-based weapons. The U.S. Space Force and similar programs in China and Russia signify the militarisation of space. Countries are investing in anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons and systems to ensure secure and competitive space-based communication, navigation, and intelligence capabilities. This militarisation of space requires sophisticated technology and collaboration across traditional defence contractors and tech innovators.

 

Maritime and Air Control. China has militarised artificial islands and increased its naval presence, heightening tensions with neighbouring countries and the U.S. Military assets like bombers, fighter jets, and aircraft carriers are being used to display power, as seen in increased air and naval operations in contested regions.

 

Impact of Cold War 2.0 on India’s Security

 

 

India finds itself uniquely amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions of “Cold War 2.0.” As one of the world’s emerging powers, India faces opportunities and security challenges from this evolving U.S.-China rivalry and the reassertion of Russian influence.

 

Tensions with China. Cold War 2.0 has escalated tensions between India and China, particularly along their disputed border in the Himalayas, where standoffs and skirmishes have become increasingly common (e.g., the 2020 Galwan Valley clash). China has expanded its military presence along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), forcing India to respond by enhancing its military infrastructure and deploying additional troops to secure the region. With cyber warfare a vital tool in Cold War 2.0, India must be prepared for cyber attacks from China that target critical infrastructure, government systems, and private companies.

 

Strategic Partnerships and Alliances. The U.S.-China rivalry has led India to deepen its engagement with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia. This non-military alliance is a significant strategic move that would help India counterbalance China’s influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, while benefiting from intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, and defence technology transfers. India’s growing defence partnership with the U.S. is evident in agreements like the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which enhance interoperability and intelligence-sharing between the two countries.

 

Naval and Maritime Security Concerns. China’s expanding naval presence in the Indian Ocean and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), primarily through ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar, present urgent strategic challenges for India. China’s military presence in these regions could jeopardise India’s control over critical sea lanes, affecting its trade and energy security. In response, India has to invest heavily in bolstering its naval capabilities and forging partnerships with countries such as the U.S., Australia, and Japan to ensure a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

 

Technology and Cyber-security Vulnerabilities. India faces the challenge of securing its technology infrastructure, mainly as it develops its 5G networks. Given U.S.-China tensions over companies like Huawei, India must carefully navigate its partnerships to secure technology free from foreign influence or vulnerabilities. With cyber warfare playing a central role in Cold War 2.0, India has to heighten efforts to enhance its cyber-security framework. Partnerships with the U.S. and other allies focus on intelligence-sharing and cyber defence strategies to protect critical national infrastructure from Chinese and other state-sponsored cyber threats.

 

Nuclear Deterrence and Security. As U.S.-China tensions spur advancements in nuclear and hypersonic weapons, there’s increased pressure on India to maintain credible nuclear deterrence, especially given its proximity to China and its longstanding rivalry with Pakistan, a Chinese ally. India’s nuclear policy may face adjustments to account for these growing regional threats. The “No First Use” policy could be revisited to enhance deterrence, while advanced missile and early warning systems are likely priorities.

 

Economic and Trade Implications. Amid efforts to reduce dependencies on China, Cold War 2.0 could open opportunities for India to become a manufacturing hub. The “China plus One” strategy followed by many multinational corporations has increased foreign investment in India, providing economic benefits that indirectly strengthen India’s security capabilities. India’s “strategic autonomy” policy—balancing relations with the U.S. and Russia — is increasingly difficult to maintain. The U.S. expects alignment with its policies toward China, while Russia’s growing alignment with China complicates India’s traditional ties with Moscow, especially in defence procurement.

 

Regional Security and Stability in South Asia. China’s economic and military investments in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar challenge India’s influence in its neighbourhood. These developments pose potential security risks as China could gain leverage over India’s neighbouring countries, potentially encircling it in a “string of pearls” strategy. U.S.-China rivalry has left a security vacuum in Afghanistan that complicates India’s security calculus, with Pakistan and China seeking to increase their regional influence. India is concerned that increased Chinese and Pakistani influence in Afghanistan could lead to heightened terrorism risks along its borders.

 

Modern technology and multipolar dynamics define this Cold War-like rivalry, making it less ideological but more complex than its 20th-century counterpart. The focus on non-traditional warfare and regional tensions underscores the evolving nature of military competition in the 21st century. The Cold War 2.0 has prompted a comprehensive transformation of military-industrial complexes and a strategic diversification of supply chains. The current MICs are more integrated with advanced technology sectors, collaborating with private companies to maintain a competitive edge in AI, cyber-security, and space capabilities. Simultaneously, the need for secure, resilient supply chains has led to efforts toward friend-shoring and regional production, reducing dependencies on China and minimising vulnerabilities to disruptions. These shifts indicate a move toward greater self-reliance and alliance-based defence economies, underscoring how interconnected MICs and supply chains have become integral to economic security and national defence in a highly competitive global landscape. These Cold War 2.0 repercussions are shaping a more uncertain and contested world, with direct consequences for international security, diplomacy, and the stability of global power structures.

 

Think it Over

Are we in the midst of Cold War 2.0

or in the beginning of World War 3.0?

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

760
Default rating

Please give a thumbs up if you  like The Post?

For regular updates, please register your email here:-

Subscribe

References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:

  1. Allison, G. (2015). The Thucydides trap: Are the U.S. and China headed for war? The Atlantic.
  1. Gaddis, J. L. (2005). The Cold War: A new history. Penguin Books.
  1. Kaplan, R. D. (2018). The return of Marco Polo’s world: War, strategy, and American interests in the twenty-first century. Random House.
  1. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (Updated Ed.). W.W. Norton.
  1. Nye, J. S. (2012). The future of power in the 21st century. Foreign Affairs, 91(2), 90–104.
  1. U.S. Department of Defence. (2022). Summary of the 2022 National Defence Strategy of the United States of America. Washington, DC.
  1. SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute). “World Military Spending Reaches All-Time High.” Press Release, 2023. https://www.sipri.org.
  1. NATO. NATO 2030: United for a New Era. NATO Reflection Group, 2020.
  1. Friedberg, Aaron. “The Growing Cold War with China.” Foreign Policy, 18 June 2021.
  1. Economist. “The New Cold War.” The Economist, 22 March 2023.
  1. Council on Foreign Relations. “China’s Military Modernization.” CFR Backgrounder, updated July 2023. https://www.cfr.org.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

Posted on

541: COLD WAR REDUX: TRAITS AND DRIVERS OF COLD WAR 2.0

 

 

My Article published on the Indus International Research Foundation website on 27 Nov 24.

 

“Cold War 2.0” describes the re-emergence of intense geopolitical competition between major powers, mainly the U.S. and China, and Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy. This framework parallels the original Cold War, which saw the United States and the Soviet Union locked in ideological and strategic rivalry. However, the current scenario has distinctive traits shaped by global interconnectedness, economic interdependence, and digital warfare.

 

Economic Interdependence and Competition. Unlike the U.S.-Soviet rivalry, the current era is marked by deep financial ties between rival states. For instance, the U.S. and China have significant trade and investment links, creating a complex relationship between competitors and economic partners. This has led to policies like “decoupling” and “friend-shoring,” where nations look to limit economic dependencies with strategic rivals, especially in critical sectors like technology and energy.

 

Tech and Cyber Dominance. The competition now prominently features digital spaces and technological development. China’s rise in artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and quantum computing has led the U.S. and its allies to push for greater control over digital infrastructure and intellectual property. Cyber security is another battlefield, with accusations of hacking and surveillance shaping security policies and alliances.

 

Military Posturing and Arms Races. The military build-up is also central to Cold War 2.0. While nuclear capabilities remain crucial, the focus has expanded to space warfare, hypersonic missiles, and advanced drone technology. For example, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy counters China’s growing military influence in Asia. At the same time, Russia’s recent actions in Ukraine have led NATO to strengthen its military presence on Europe’s eastern flank.

 

Ideological Clashes. While less ideological than the original Cold War, there is a growing divergence between the democratic and authoritarian governance models, particularly as China promotes its model as an alternative to Western liberalism. This has led to ideological contestation in digital governance, human rights, and trade rules, with each power attempting to influence international norms and institutions to reflect its values.

 

Strategic Alliances and Blocs. The current rivalry sees the emergence of new alliances and a revival of older ones, such as NATO and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) among the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, which aims to counterbalance China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Similarly, China and Russia are strengthening their ties, often working together in the United Nations and other forums to counter Western initiatives.

 

Resource Control and Economic Leverage. Access to resources such as rare earth metals, energy, and food is another area of strategic competition. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which funds infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, is seen as expanding its influence by creating economic dependencies. The U.S. counters with its initiatives, such as the Build Back Better World (B3W) program, which offers alternatives for development financing.

 

Impacts on Global Relations. The emergence of Cold War 2.0 has led to shifting alliances, with some nations choosing sides and others attempting a non-aligned approach to maintain autonomy. Middle powers like India, Brazil, and South Africa find themselves balancing between the two giants, shaping new multilateral dynamics. Meanwhile, the increased emphasis on national security in trade and technology policies is reshaping globalisation, potentially leading to more isolated economic blocs.

 

Comparison of Drivers of the Earlier and Current Cold War

 

The drivers of the original Cold War (1947–1991) between the U.S. and the Soviet Union differ from those of today’s “Cold War 2.0,” primarily between the U.S. and China, with Russia playing a significant but secondary role. These geopolitical, ideological, and technological rivalries reveal continuities and marked differences.

 

Sl No Drivers Differences
1 Ideological Rivalry

Earlier Cold War: The U.S. and the Soviet Union were divided by sharply contrasting ideologies: capitalism and democracy versus communism and authoritarianism. Each superpower sought to promote its ideology globally, often through proxy wars, propaganda, and cultural influence campaigns.

Current Cold War: Although there’s still an ideological component, the divide is less rigid. The U.S. advocates liberal democracy, while China’s governance model blends authoritarianism and state-led capitalism. Rather than openly promoting its ideology as a direct alternative, China emphasises economic development and “pragmatic” governance as models for stability and growth. There’s less overt ideological export and more influence through economic interdependence and development projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
2 Geopolitical Power Struggles

 

Earlier Cold War: The rivalry largely revolved around Europe, with proxy conflicts extending to Asia, Latin America, and Africa. The focus was to prevent either side from gaining influence in these regions, as seen through U.S. and Soviet interventions in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and other hotspots.

Current Cold War: The U.S. and China focus on the Indo-Pacific region as the primary sphere of influence, with attention to Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. The U.S. is strengthening alliances with Japan, Australia, India (QUAD), and other Indo-Pacific partners, while China is extending its influence through its BRI and increasing its military presence in disputed territories. Russia, meanwhile, has focused on asserting control in Eastern Europe, as seen in the Ukraine conflict, though this rivalry is more geographically constrained.
3 Economic Rivalry and Interdependence

 

Earlier Cold War: The U.S. and Soviet Union had limited economic interactions, creating two largely independent blocs. Economic influence was exerted through aid programs (like the U.S. Marshall Plan) and political-economic treaties with allied countries. Global trade and economies were less intertwined, allowing for distinct capitalist and socialist economic systems.

Current Cold War: Economic interdependence is a defining factor. China and the U.S. are each other’s largest trading partners, and both economies are deeply embedded in global supply chains. Despite economic competition, each depends heavily on the other. This dynamic has led to “selective decoupling,” where each side aims to reduce dependence on critical technologies and resources without severing all economic ties. This is especially prominent in sectors like semiconductors, 5G, and renewable energy technologies.
4 Technology and Cyber Warfare

 

Earlier Cold War: The technological competition focused on space, nuclear capabilities, and conventional military technology. The “Space Race” and “Arms Race” were significant components, with the Apollo moon landing and arms treaties like SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks) symbolising the intense scientific and military rivalry.

Current Cold War: The focus has shifted to advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and cyber security. Cyber warfare has become a core area of conflict, with cyber-attacks, espionage, and influence operations playing significant roles. There’s competition for dominance in 5G networks and critical infrastructure control, with concerns about digital sovereignty, surveillance, and influence operations on social media. This “Tech Race” lacks the clear-cut technological “wins” of the Space Race, but it’s arguably more pervasive and impactful on civilian and governmental life worldwide.
5 Military Strategies and Posturing

 

Earlier Cold War: The focus was on nuclear arms buildup and deterrence through Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), with proxy wars to avoid direct confrontation. NATO and the Warsaw Pact were established, and military posturing often involved nuclear tests, displays of military hardware, and highly symbolic confrontations (e.g., the Cuban Missile Crisis).

Current Cold War: While nuclear deterrence remains, military competition now involves a broader range of strategies, including space militarisation, hypersonic missile development, and significant advancements in drone and cyber warfare. China is focused on expanding its naval capabilities and power projection in the South China Sea, while the U.S. strengthens its presence in the Indo-Pacific. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a renewed focus on NATO’s defensive posture in Europe.
6 Alliances and Proxy Conflicts

 

Earlier Cold War: Alliances like NATO and the Warsaw Pact formalised the division of East and West. Many proxy conflicts emerged, particularly in developing regions, where both superpowers supported opposing sides to prevent ideological shifts. Examples include the Korean and Vietnam Wars and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Current Cold War: Alliances are less rigid, and there’s an emphasis on “flexible” partnerships. The U.S. builds security frameworks like the Quad and AUKUS (Australia, the U.K., and the U.S.) while strengthening alliances like NATO. China, meanwhile, does not engage in formal military alliances but leverages economic influence through the BRI and diplomatic coalitions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Russia uses its influence in post-Soviet states and controls Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
7 Propaganda and Influence Operations

 

Earlier Cold War: The U.S. and Soviet Union engaged in direct propaganda campaigns, including Radio Free Europe, cultural exchanges, and global information wars to win hearts and minds.

Current Cold War: Information warfare is more complex and digital. Social media platforms have become battlegrounds for influence, with disinformation campaigns, election interference, and social polarisation strategies targeting rivals. China and Russia conduct sophisticated operations, leveraging global media channels, online platforms, and soft power to shape narratives. The U.S., in turn, supports global media initiatives that promote democratic governance and transparency.

 

Cold War 2.0 has introduced new complexities into international relations, where intertwined economies, advanced technology, and a globalised world order shape competition. The drivers of today’s “Cold War 2.0” reflect a multi-dimensional competition that diverges from the earlier Cold War in its deep economic interdependence, technology-centric rivalry, and more fluid alliances. The ideological divide is softer but still significant, with the U.S., China, and Russia vying for global influence. This rivalry unfolds in a digitally connected world where technology and information warfare play unprecedented roles, resulting in a complex geopolitical landscape with intensified tensions and interdependencies. Unlike the bipolar world of the original Cold War, today’s scenario is multipolar, involving several influential states that resist being drawn entirely into either camp. The result is a fluid, high-stakes environment that demands careful diplomacy and strategic restraint.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

760
Default rating

Please give a thumbs up if you  like The Post?

 

For regular updates, please register your email here:-

Subscribe

 

 

References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:

  1. George Takach. “Cold War 2.0: The Battle Between Democracies and Autocracies.” The Diplomat, June 2024.
  1. Ferguson, Niall. “The Rise of Cold War II.” Milken Institute Global Conference, May 2022.
  1. Mayer, Maximilian, and Kavalski, Emilian. “Cold War 2.0 and European Security.” Intereconomics Journal, July 2022.
  1. Traub, James. “A New Non-Aligned Movement in a Divided World.” Foreign Policy, July 2022.
  1. Bishara Marwan. “And so, Cold War II begins”, Al Jazeera, 24 February 2022.
  1. Westad Odd Arne “Has a New Cold War Really Begun?”, Foreign Affair, 09 February 2019.
  1. Smith Nicholas Ross, “A New Cold War: Assessing the Current US-Russia Relationship”, Wayback Machine. Springer, 23 March 2021.
  1. Woodward Jude, “The US Vs China: Asia’s New Cold War? Manchester University Press, 2017.
  1. Zhao Minghao, “Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Chinese Perspectives on US-China Strategic Competition”. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2019.
  1. Willy Wo-Lap Lam, “The New Cold War that Threatens to Turn Hot”, The Jamestown Foundation 2023.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

Posted on

538:CHINA UNVEILS LYNX ROBOT: BROADER SHIFT TOWARDS UNMANNED WARFARE

Pic Courtesy: Net

 

My Article published on The EurAsian Times Website on 24 Nov 24

 

The Chinese company Deep Robotics recently unveiled the “Lynx ” advanced quadruped robot.” This robot is designed for rugged, off-road environments and showcases its versatility by navigating extreme terrain and performing stunts like backflips and sharp turns. The robot’s robust design allows it to move at high speeds across rugged landscapes, enhancing its utility in real-world applications like disaster response and exploration.​ The robot represents a significant move in China’s broader strategy of embracing unmanned warfare.

 

Lynx Robot

 

Pic Courtesy: Net

 

Deep Robotics, founded in 2017, has made a name for itself with its innovative quadruped robots, and the Lynx represents a leap forward in terms of versatility and performance. The Lynx has all-terrain wheels, allowing it to cover uneven ground easily. Thanks to its waterproof design, it can operate in challenging conditions, including temperatures ranging from -20°C to 55°C, and in wet environments. The Lynx can autonomously navigate challenging environments for up to 4 hours on a single charge. This robot has garnered attention for its practical applications in search and rescue, mapping, inspection, and potential military uses.

 

Possible Military application.

 

The Lynx robot by Deep Robotics, with its rugged capabilities, mobility, and autonomous navigation of extreme terrains, presents several potential military applications. These features make it suitable for a range of tactical and logistical operations in military contexts, from reconnaissance missions in complex environments to providing logistical support in combat zones.

 

Reconnaissance and Surveillance. The Lynx’s ability to traverse complex environments—such as rough, mountainous terrain or urban rubble—makes it ideal for reconnaissance missions. Its autonomous navigation capabilities allow it to gather intelligence in areas that are too dangerous or difficult for human soldiers to access, providing real-time data without risking lives​.

 

Logistical Support. The robot’s capacity to carry heavy loads and its off-road agility make it a potential asset in logistical operations, particularly in combat zones. It could transport supplies, ammunition, and equipment across uneven terrain, ensuring that military units are well-supplied in challenging environments.​

 

Search and Rescue Operations. Given its versatility and ability to function in extreme conditions, the Lynx could be used in military search and rescue operations. It can be deployed in environments where traditional vehicles may struggle, such as collapsed buildings or hazardous zones after combat.​

 

Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD). The robot’s agility, ability to handle rough terrain, and precision could make it a valuable tool in EOD operations. It would allow military personnel to remotely detect and disarm explosives in hostile areas without exposing humans to danger.

 

The Lynx’s robust design and all-terrain features lend it to military applications. As with many advanced robotic systems, its military potential could be seen as a means to reduce human casualties and enhance combat capabilities.

 

Future Warfare with Unmanned Systems

 

Unmanned systems, encompassing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), are rapidly transforming the landscape of modern warfare. With technological advancements, these systems have moved from the periphery of military operations to the forefront, providing unprecedented surveillance, reconnaissance, logistics, and combat capabilities. This article explores the tactical applications of unmanned systems in future warfare, illustrated with examples, insights from military experts, and a look at the implications for global security.

 

The Evolution of Unmanned Systems. The concept of unmanned systems is not new; however, their application has dramatically evolved over the past two decades. Initially utilised primarily for reconnaissance missions during the Cold War, UAVs gained prominence in the 1990s and early 2000s, particularly in the U.S. military’s operations in the Middle East. The 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the subsequent Iraq War marked a turning point where UAVs like the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper became integral to combat operations, enabling real-time intelligence gathering and targeted strikes without risking pilot lives. A 2021 U.S. Defence Innovation Board report states, “Unmanned systems are reshaping how wars are fought, enabling forces to conduct operations with greater precision, efficiency, and reduced risk to personnel” (Defence Innovation Board, 2021).

 

Tactical Applications of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)

 

Surveillance and Reconnaissance. One of the primary applications of UAVs is for surveillance and reconnaissance missions. The ability to gather intelligence over vast areas without risking human life is invaluable. For example, during the 2012 conflict in Mali, French forces employed UAVs to monitor enemy movements and gather intelligence on insurgent groups. This enabled precise ground operations planning, significantly improving their forces’ effectiveness.

 

Precision Strikes. UAVs have also become crucial in delivering precision strikes against high-value targets. The use of drones for targeted killings has been a controversial yet effective tactic. Israel’s use of UAVs in conflicts, such as the 2006 Lebanon War, demonstrated the effectiveness of drones in both surveillance and combat roles. The Israeli Air Force’s use of the Heron and Hermes UAVs allowed for persistent monitoring and targeted strikes, significantly impacting Hezbollah’s capabilities.

 

Logistics and Resupply. Unmanned systems are also revolutionising military logistics. The U.S. Army has begun to deploy UAVs for logistical support, delivering supplies to frontline troops.  This capability was notably highlighted during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where Azerbaijani forces utilised UAVs not only for combat but also for logistical operations, effectively resupplying troops in the field while minimising the risk of ground convoys being attacked.

 

Tactical Applications of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs)

 

Combat Support and Logistics Unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) are increasingly integrated into combat operations. These systems can perform various tasks, including surveillance, logistics, and direct enemy forces engagement. The U.S. Army’s Robotic Combat Vehicle (RCV) program exemplifies this trend, as it aims to develop UGVs that can operate alongside manned units to enhance combat effectiveness. The UGVs deployed in recent military exercises have demonstrated their ability to scout ahead of troop formations, providing critical intelligence without endangering soldiers.

 

Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) Operations. UGVs are particularly effective in counter-IED operations, where they can safely detect and disarm explosive devices. The U.S. military has employed systems like the PackBot and Talon, successfully reducing casualties among dismounted troops. During operations in Afghanistan, UGVs were instrumental in clearing routes for ground convoys by detecting and neutralising IED threats.

 

Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR). UGVs are also involved in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. In the aftermath of natural disasters, these vehicles can be deployed to assess damage, locate survivors, and deliver supplies. For instance, after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, UGVs were used to navigate debris and assess the condition of affected areas, demonstrating their versatility beyond traditional military applications.

 

Future Warfare and the Role of Unmanned Systems.

 

As warfare continues to evolve, the role of unmanned systems will only expand. Integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning into unmanned systems will enhance their capabilities, enabling them to operate autonomously in complex environments. This shift toward autonomy presents both opportunities and challenges for military planners.

 

Enhanced Decision-Making. Integrating AI into unmanned systems will facilitate improved decision-making in combat scenarios. AI algorithms can analyse vast amounts of data from multiple sources, providing commanders with actionable intelligence and recommendations for operations. The future battlefield will be defined by speed and the ability to process information faster than the enemy.

 

Ethical Considerations. However, the increasing reliance on unmanned systems raises significant ethical questions. The use of drones for targeted killings has sparked debate over accountability and the rules of engagement. As military operations become more automated, the question of human oversight becomes critical. Experts argue that while unmanned systems can enhance operational efficiency, they must be governed by strict ethical guidelines to prevent misuse and collateral damage.

 

Global Security Implications. The proliferation of unmanned systems is reshaping global security dynamics. As countries like China and Russia invest heavily in their drone capabilities, the balance of power is shifting. The use of UAVs in conflicts such as the Syrian Civil War and the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea highlights the strategic importance of these systems in contemporary military strategies.

 

China’s Investment in Unmanned Systems

 

China has heavily invested in unmanned systems as part of its broader goal to modernise its military and lead in technological innovation. These investments are spread across several key sectors, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), and unmanned surface vessels (USVs). These technologies have military, commercial, and strategic implications that extend beyond China’s borders.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). China is a global leader in UAV technology, mainly through the success of companies like DJI. DJI dominates the global drone market, controlling up to 70% of the worldwide share. China’s military has also developed advanced UAVs, including surveillance, reconnaissance, and strike capabilities. The Wing Loong series, for example, is a family of Chinese UAVs designed for intelligence gathering and targeted strikes. These UAVs are being developed for domestic consumption and export purposes, making China a significant player in the global defence drone market.

 

Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs). China is making significant strides in developing USVs, which are used for maritime surveillance, reconnaissance, and mine detection. These unmanned vessels are seen as cost-effective alternatives to manned naval operations, offering the ability to patrol contested waters like the South China Sea without risking human life. USVs also help maintain a constant presence in strategic maritime regions. These vessels align with China’s broader naval ambitions to assert its presence and power projection capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.​

​

Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs). China’s investment in UUVs has been critical to its maritime strategy, particularly in the South China Sea and other key waterway areas. These vehicles are essential for underwater surveillance, anti-submarine warfare, and potentially offensive operations against rival naval forces. China’s UUV technology has evolved to encompass various capabilities, from scientific exploration to military applications, such as the Haisi underwater vehicle series.​

 

Strategic and Military Applications. China’s investments are strategically aimed at bolstering its military capabilities, enhancing its surveillance capabilities, and reducing operational risks. By focusing on unmanned systems, China can maintain a technological edge in surveillance, reconnaissance, and potential combat operations. The country’s Military-Civil Fusion policy further accelerates the integration of civilian technological advances into the military, making these unmanned systems even more pivotal for national defence and global influence.​

 

Global Influence and Export Strategies. China’s dominance in the unmanned systems market has implications for its foreign policy and international influence. While Western countries like the U.S. have stricter export controls on unmanned systems, China’s more flexible approach allows it to export these technologies widely, especially to developing countries. This has led to China’s increasing presence in markets previously dominated by Western companies, positioning it as a critical player in the global defence and technology sectors.

 

China’s strategic investments in unmanned systems are part of a broader national ambition to lead in defence technology while reducing reliance on traditional military platforms. The country’s dominance in the drone market and advancements in USVs and UUVs make unmanned systems a cornerstone of China’s military modernisation efforts and broader geopolitical ambitions. These investments strengthen China’s defence capabilities and enhance its influence across global markets, particularly in rising geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific and other strategic regions.

 

The increasing use of unmanned systems by state and non-state actors presents a new paradigm in warfare, challenging traditional military doctrines and necessitating a re-evaluation of defence strategies. As nations continue to develop and deploy unmanned systems, it is imperative to strike a balance between leveraging their capabilities and ensuring accountability in their use. These technologies will undoubtedly shape the future of warfare, making it essential for military leaders and policymakers to understand their implications for global security.

 

Your valuable inputs are most welcome.

760
Default rating

Please give a thumbs up if you  like The Post?

 

For regular updates, please register your email here:-

Subscribe

 

 

References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

References:

  1. Aviation Week Network. (2019). UAVs in Mali: The Role of Drones in Modern Warfare. aviationweek.com.
  2. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2020). The Future of Unmanned Systems in Global Security. csis.org
  3. Cohen, R. (2021). Logistical Innovations in Warfare: Lessons from the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. Military Review.
  4. Defence Innovation Board. (2021). The Future of Warfare: Unmanned Systems and Autonomous Operations. defenseinnovationboard.gov
  5. Dunford, J. (2016). Counter-IED Operations: Lessons Learned from Afghanistan. Joint Force Quarterly.
  6. McGhee, J. (2018). The Evolution of Unmanned Aerial Systems in Combat. Air Force Journal.
  7. McRaven, W. A. (2020). The Role of Robotics in Modern Warfare. Military Affairs.
  8. Shay, S. (2019). Drones in Israel’s Military Strategy: A Case Study. Journal of Military Strategy.
  9. Singer, P. W. (2019). Ethics of Drone Warfare: A Contemporary Debate. Ethics & International Affairs.
  10. Walker, W. J. (2022). Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare. Army Command and General Staff College.
  11. Yasuda, T. (2012). The Role of Unmanned Systems in Disaster Response: Case Study of Japan. Disaster Management Journal.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.