Afghanistan – Page 4 – Air Marshal's Perspective

Setting and Population Density Pattern.

Afghanistan’s overall population density is only about 148 people per square mile / 57 people per square kilometer (Indian population density is 1202 per square mile / 464 per square kilometer).

Even in the populated areas of Afghanistan, people are quite spread out, with only 26 percent of the population living in urban centres. This dispersed population pattern, is a challenge for the state army to defend while, it favours the Taliban’s quick-moving offensive.

Taliban Strategy.

Following the withdrawal of Western forces, the Taliban swiftly and easily occupied vast swaths of sparsely populated territory. They then used that territory to launch coordinated and fast-moving offensives.

Instead of traditional tools of warfare (like artillery and armour), the Taliban moved quickly in weaponised pickup trucks to defeat dug-in defensive They forced The Afghan forces to retreat from outposts and checkpoints to (safety of) urban areas, thereby ceding control of supply lines and major highways. This allowed Taliban forces to surround and isolate urban centers.

Local officials were quick to accept Taliban control because they had little allegiance to the central government and knew that Afghan forces were unwilling (and unable) to defend their areas from Taliban

Taliban Advantages.

Taliban enjoyed a presence throughout the country, allowing them to pressure the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in multiple locations.

The Taliban were able to conduct lightning offensives across many fronts, which fatally stressed the limited cohesion of the Afghan National Defense and Security.

Afghan Security Force: Challenges

Low force-to-space ratios meant that defenders had significant ground to cover and had to move swiftly and in a coordinated fashion to stand any chance of successfully countering Taliban threats from many The Afghan security forces were not geared up to these tasks.

The Afghan military lacked the capacity and cohesion required to stand firm and defend against fast-moving offensives across many fronts.

Afghan forces had always been heavily dependent on S. air support for troop movement, re-supply, and combat operations. In absence of the air support, the Afghan military was unable to regroup or move units around quickly.

Afghan forces were hampered by lack of cohesion, leadership, motivation, and limited training & mobility.

Outcome.

The weaknesses of the Afghan security forces, combined with the low force-to-space ratios generated by Afghanistan’s terrain and its population distribution, made a quick Taliban victory a reality.

Taliban rarely had to use force because they could leverage their geographic reach to intimidate local leaders and convince defenders to flee or surrender.

Lessons

Understanding Local conditions is Important.

One solution does not work for every problem.

Psychological (Mind) factor of any armed is important.

Besides Equipment and training, motivation and leadership is equally important.

There is much more to it – More coming up

Questions

Has the western world really understood Afghanistan?

Is the fight against terrorism being orchestrated correctly?

Titbit

Afghanistan is called graveyard of empires.

Britishers came and failed

Russians tried and failed.

Yanks tried for long and failed.

Random Thoughts

Now it is Chinese turn

(Chinese are too smart to burn their hands – they will let Pakistan do Their dirty work)

Pakistan is playing with a two edged sword.

will the nurtured snake bite back

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References

https://warontherocks.com/

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/afghanistan-taliban-uk-war-troops-b1902270.html

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-17/why-taliban-won

https://cissm.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/worst-case-scenario-assessing-impact-complete-isaf-military-withdrawal

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-army-collapse-taliban-11628958253

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-taliban-advances-afghan-military-overhauls-war-strategy-limit-losses-2021-07-22/

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-pug

Pic Courtesy: Express Tribune

Question. In the comments section of one of the earlier posts, Air Cmde R Marwaha (Retd) had raised a very pertinent question as to why does US continue to engage and support Pakistan?

Catch 22. The question is curiously intriguing because United States rewards Pakistan for the very behaviour it seeks to curb i.e. terrorism under nuclear umbrella.

Three Main Reasons. Pakistan – US relations like any other engagement are governed by geopolitics realities and compulsions. In the recent years, contours of these relations have derived largely from US’s China and India policies, the Afghanistan war and her national security concerns related to international terrorism.

Factors. Various factors affecting the relations between the two countries are enumerated below in brief (each one is a topic of debate in itself). The changes in Pakistan – US relationship policy have been and in future would be governed by these factors in isolation or collectively.

Pak Demography. Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world. By 2050 it is estimated that it will become the biggest Muslim nation (ahead of Indonesia) and the fourth most populous country in the world after India, China and the United States.

Pak’s Important Location. Pakistan lies in this unique geographic location, with a stake in the Western, Persian, Central Asian and South Asian dynamics. Pakistan is a strategically important country as it provides access to Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia – three of the most critical regions for world peace. It borders Afghanistan (where US fights its longest ever battle), Iran (which could be the theatre of a future US war), China (America’s biggest challenge) and India (one of the country US needs to contain China). Its strategic location at the crossroads of South Asia and Central Asia, makes it a pivotal player in a region with significant economic potential, particularly in the exploitation and transportation of oil and gas.

Terrorism. Pakistan has a pivotal role to play in the ‘War on Terror’ and is critical for the international effort to counter global and regional terrorist groups.

Afghanistan. Pakistan is a critical player in US effort to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s location next to Afghanistan and historical involvement in that country make it a critical player in efforts to stabilise the country and to ensure that it does not return to being an operating base for extremists.

Nuclear Aspect. Besides the ‘War on Terror’ and the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan is important given its possession of nuclear weapons. Pakistan is one of the most troubled nations, widely viewed as “too dangerous to fail” because of the toxic mix of the terrorist proxies it nurtures under its ever-expanding nuclear umbrella. The risk of Pakistan falling apart along with its nuclear weapons is a far scarier prospect for the world. US engagement with Pakistan allows US to have some say in this direction.

Energy Security. Pakistan is essential for America’s energy security. Given its proximity to two of the world’s major oil reserves – Central and West Asia.

China. US cannot leave Pakistan entirely dependent on and strategically useful only to China.

Realpolitik Game. Supporting Pakistan, keeps US alignments open in South Asia. It also gives them some leverage over India.

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