Category: Afghanistan

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251: Pakistan in Turmoil: Once Again

Pic Courtesy: Net (Dawn)

Khan a popular cricket star, was elected prime minister in 2018 on a reform and anti-corruption platform.

Khan followed an antagonistic brand of politics, at times unwilling to build political consensus.

Some parties and the opposition formed an alliance in 2020 and have tried to oust Khan from power.

The opposition says Imran Khan has failed to deliver, citing inflation, and economic pressures.

Now he faces a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly.

 

Dynamics

 

Political Pattern.

  • Pakistan displays a political cycle indicating built-in political instability.
  • No Pakistani prime minister has completed their full five-year term in office.
  • The opposition parties do not wait for elections to occur, for the previous party to be voted out.

 

Military

  • Khan’s relationship with the military has changed.
  • The military had stood behind Khan since 2018.
  • Lately, faultlines have emerged in Khan’s relationship with the military.
  • The military is not happy with the way he runs domestic politics.
  • The military also does not like his antagonistic brand of politics.
  • One of the triggers is the appointment of the ISI chief. The military had presented the candidate for the next chief of the ISI and Khan dragged his feet over that, leading to an impasse. This was an embarrassment for the military.

 

Foreign Policy

  • Khan wants Pakistan to have an independent foreign policy, i.e. good relationship with all powers (Russia, China, and the US).
  • But the reality is that under Khan’s term, Pakistan has drifted away from the US.
  • Whereas, Pakistan is getting closer to China and Russia.
  • The Pak military wants a closer relationship with the US.

 

Afghanistan Factor.

  • US withdrawal from Afghanistan is another factor for the coldness of the relationship with the US.
  • The US has no need for Pakistan for its fight in Afghanistan.
  • Pakistan’s engagement with the Taliban is another factor having both external and internal repercussions.

 

Imran’s Last Ditch Efforts.

  • Khan is relying on popular political tactics, basically blaming the political turmoil on a foreign conspiracy theory, blaming the West.
  • He claims that the opposition is acting at the behest of western foreign powers and the CIA.
  • He is portraying himself as the one to stand up against the west.

 

Likely Outcomes.

 

One thing is sure, whatever happens, would be with the support of the Pakistan Military.

The military has said that it is neutral in the vote of no confidence situation. What it means is it is ditching Imran Khan.

 

Imran Stays.

  • This is possible only if he cuts a deal with the military.
  • In this case, he would be weakened and would have to tow the military line.

 

Imran Goes.

  • Political instability would prevail.
  • This could result in early elections.
  • The elections would be highly charged and the possibility of political violence is very high.

 

Imran takes political asylum.

  • This is another possibility as has happened before with Nawaz Sharif and Pervez Musharraf.
  • He is already stating a threat to his life. This could be making grounds for seeking political asylum in the future.

 

Repercussions

 

Pakistani people are losing faith in the electoral process.

Whatsoever be the outcome, either way, Pakistan’s democracy will suffer.

Prevailing political instability and violence may create further economic crisis in the country.

The military may step in and take control as has happened before, till they install another puppet government.

 

Bottom Line

Time for India to keep its guard up.

Going by past experience anti-Indian activities and sentiments go up during these times.

 

Question

Who are the contenders for the post of PM in Pakistan?

 

Random Thought 1.

The oft-repeated political cycle in Pakistan sounds familiar.

The military installs a puppet government.

Things keep getting worse.

Military cuts the cord.

The military takes over or installs another government.

Military is seen as a saviour and retains control.

 

Random Thought 2.

The oft-repeated cycle of political asylum also sounds familiar.

The political leaders in Pakistan stay in power till the military wants.

Once deposed, they take political asylum.

Live happily ever after.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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References and credits

To all the online news channels.

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200: Double Celebration: One year of Blogging and 200th Post

Air Marshal’s Perspective

(Candid and to the point – काम की बात)

Ranked 13th in the list of Top 25 Indian Defence Blogs and Websites

 

 

 

This blog was started in the month of September 2020.  It has been one year since then, with 200 posts.

 

Enjoyed researching topics related to defence, security, geo-politics, technology, leadership and management etc. The posts were interspersed with some humour and quotes.

 

Tried to live up to the motto of the blog – “Candid and to the point – काम की बात”. Most of the posts are short ones (two to three pages), covering the essence of the topic in bullet form.

 

The credit for starting the blog goes to my course mate and friend Col Murali. He provided me the space, encouraged me and held my hand initially.

 

Credit also goes to another course mate Vicky Sheorey for getting me all the equipment needed for video conference and recordings.

 

Sincere Thanks to all the subscribers and readers for the encouragement.

 

To provide a panoramic view of the blog, here are the links to the posts on various topics:-

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

For regular updates, please register here

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198: Shadow Boxing: Debate at the 76th Session of UN General Assembly

Pic: Courtesy The Diplomat

During the general debate on the 21 Sep 21, Speech by US and Chinese president was interesting.

 

Link to US president speech:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/21/remarks-by-president-biden-before-the-76th-session-of-the-united-nations-general-assembly/

 

Link to Chinese president Speech:

http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/22/c_1310201230.htm

 

Punches

Biden spoke about democracy and universal human rights, hinting at defending democracy and human rights from creeping authoritarianism.

 

Xi spoke only fleetingly of human rights through development and democracy as not a special right reserved to any individual country.

 

Xi used U.S. failure in Afghanistan as a counterpoint to global challenges emerging out of Covid-19 pandemic.

 

Xi’s message to developing countries is that China has emerged from deep poverty to the world’s second largest economy whereas, USA has been invading and fighting foreign wars.

 

Selling China

Xi prioritised economic development while decrying sovereignty-violating foreign military interventions.

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech constituted an explicit pitch to developing countries for a post-U.S. dominant world order hinged to China’s economic development model.

 

Xi laid out initiatives including international aid and debt relief for the needs of less-developed members of the U.N.

 

Common Denominators

 

Both leaders made specific commitments to address the global challenges of Covid-19 with pledges of vaccine doses to countries that lack them and financial support for the World Health Organization’s COVAX equitable vaccine supply initiative.

 

Climate change figured prominently in both speeches.

  • Biden promised greater government funding for “green infrastructure and electric vehicles” and $11 billion in climate aid annually by 2024 to assist poorer countries vulnerable to extreme weather and rising temperatures.
  • Xi announced that China will stop funding the construction of coal-fired power plants outside its borders.

 

Both leaders also spoke of the Afghanistan situation but with wildly different perspectives.

  • Xi called Afghanistan situation as an event demonstrating that military intervention from the outside and so-called democratic transformation entail nothing but harm.
  • Biden called the Afghanistan withdrawal a national turning point in a new era of relentless diplomacy.

 

Inferences: Another Cold War

Xi’s speech had no tone or content to ease the currently fraught U.S.-China relationship.

 

Messages from both the speeches indicate that there is very less chance of any meaningful reset in their bilateral relationship. The relationship seems to be heading towards a Cold War.

 

China is projecting itself as the alternative to the USA. China is presenting an alternative version of globalization, asking smaller countries to pick a side.

 

Bottom Line

Sumo Wrestling is going ON.

 “When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled”

 

Question

Who in your opinion will win this bout?

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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References:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2020/05/15/welcome-to-politico-china-watcher-489237

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/21/remarks-by-president-biden-before-the-76th-session-of-the-united-nations-general-assembly/

http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/22/c_1310201230.htm

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