Category: Afghanistan

Pic Courtesy: Net (Dawn)

Khan a popular cricket star, was elected prime minister in 2018 on a reform and anti-corruption platform.

Khan followed an antagonistic brand of politics, at times unwilling to build political consensus.

Some parties and the opposition formed an alliance in 2020 and have tried to oust Khan from power.

The opposition says Imran Khan has failed to deliver, citing inflation, and economic pressures.

Now he faces a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly.

 

Dynamics

 

Political Pattern.

• Pakistan displays a political cycle indicating built-in political instability.

• No Pakistani prime minister has completed their full five-year term in office.

• The opposition parties do not wait for elections to occur, for the previous party to be voted out.

 

Military

• Khan’s relationship with the military has changed.

• The military had stood behind Khan since 2018.

• Lately, faultlines have emerged in Khan’s relationship with the military.

• The military is not happy with the way he runs domestic politics.

• The military also does not like his antagonistic brand of politics.

• One of the triggers is the appointment of the ISI chief. The military had presented the candidate for the next chief of the ISI and Khan dragged his feet over that, leading to an impasse. This was an embarrassment for the military.

 

Foreign Policy

• Khan wants Pakistan to have an independent foreign policy, i.e. good relationship with all powers (Russia, China, and the US).

• But the reality is that under Khan’s term, Pakistan has drifted away from the US.

• Whereas, Pakistan is getting closer to China and Russia.

• The Pak military wants a closer relationship with the US.

 

Afghanistan Factor.

• US withdrawal from Afghanistan is another factor for the coldness of the relationship with the US.

• The US has no need for Pakistan for its fight in Afghanistan.

• Pakistan’s engagement with the Taliban is another factor having both external and internal repercussions.

 

Imran’s Last Ditch Efforts.

• Khan is relying on popular political tactics, basically blaming the political turmoil on a foreign conspiracy theory, blaming the West.

• He claims that the opposition is acting at the behest of western foreign powers and the CIA.

• He is portraying himself as the one to stand up against the west.

 

Likely Outcomes.

 

One thing is sure, whatever happens, would be with the support of the Pakistan Military.

The military has said that it is neutral in the vote of no confidence situation. What it means is it is ditching Imran Khan.

 

Imran Stays.

• This is possible only if he cuts a deal with the military.

• In this case, he would be weakened and would have to tow the military line.

 

Imran Goes.

• Political instability would prevail.

• This could result in early elections.

• The elections would be highly charged and the possibility of political violence is very high.

 

Imran takes political asylum.

• This is another possibility as has happened before with Nawaz Sharif and Pervez Musharraf.

• He is already stating a threat to his life. This could be making grounds for seeking political asylum in the future.

 

Repercussions

 

Pakistani people are losing faith in the electoral process.

Whatsoever be the outcome, either way, Pakistan’s democracy will suffer.

Prevailing political instability and violence may create further economic crisis in the country.

The military may step in and take control as has happened before, till they install another puppet government.

 

Bottom Line

Time for India to keep its guard up.

Going by past experience anti-Indian activities and sentiments go up during these times.

 

Question

Who are the contenders for the post of PM in Pakistan?

 

Random Thought 1.

The oft-repeated political cycle in Pakistan sounds familiar.

The military installs a puppet government.

Things keep getting worse.

Military cuts the cord.

The military takes over or installs another government.

Military is seen as a saviour and retains control.

 

Random Thought 2.

The oft-repeated cycle of political asylum also sounds familiar.

The political leaders in Pakistan stay in power till the military wants.

Once deposed, they take political asylum.

Live happily ever after.

 

Suggestions and value additions are most welcome

 

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