663: ROLE OF AMERICA’S F-47 SIXTH-GENERATION FIGHTER JET  IN A SHIFTING DEFENCE LANDSCAPE

 

My Article was published in the  May edition of the “Life of Soldier” journal.

 

The evolution of military aviation has reached a revolutionary moment with the advent of sixth-generation fighter jets. These jets, representing a transformative leap in military aviation, are set to redefine air combat with their revolutionary technologies like advanced stealth, artificial intelligence (AI), hypersonic speeds, and networked warfare capabilities. As nations like the United States and China race to develop these next-generation platforms, the global balance of power is shifting, with significant implications for countries like India. This article explores what constitutes a sixth-generation fighter, delves into the specifics of the US’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform, compares it to the existing F-22, and assesses its potential to transform US defence. It also examines the intensifying US-China defence rivalry and India’s current standing amidst these global developments.

 

Sixth-Generation Fighter Jet

A sixth-generation fighter jet is the next evolutionary step beyond the current fifth-generation aircraft, such as the U.S.’s F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II, the Russian SU-57 and the Chinese J-20. While fifth-generation jets introduced advanced stealth, supercruise (sustained supersonic flight without afterburners), and integrated sensor systems, sixth-generation fighters aim to push the boundaries further. Their defining features include:-

Enhanced Stealth. These jets will have an even lower radar cross-section than their predecessors, using advanced materials, coatings, and aerodynamic designs to become nearly invisible to enemy detection systems.

Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI will be deeply integrated, enabling real-time decision-making, autonomous operations, and coordination with unmanned systems, such as drones acting as “loyal wingmen.”

Hypersonic Speeds. Capable of exceeding Mach 5, these aircraft could drastically reduce response times and enhance their ability to penetrate contested airspace.

Directed-Energy Weapons. Innovations like laser systems could provide precise, cost-effective means to neutralise threats like missiles or enemy aircraft.

Advanced Networking. Sixth-generation jets will operate as nodes in a vast battlefield network, sharing data with satellites, ground stations, and other platforms to achieve total situational awareness.

Advanced Avionics and Sensors. They would incorporate superior sensor fusion for unparalleled situational awareness.

Optionally Manned Capabilities. These fighters will be flexible enough to operate with or without a pilot, adapting to mission requirements.

These capabilities mark a shift from traditional air combat to multi-domain warfare, a concept in which air, space, cyber, and electronic domains are seamlessly integrated. This integration allows for a more comprehensive approach to warfare, focusing on dominating future conflicts through technological superiority and adaptability.

 

Speciality of the U.S.’s “F-47” Fighter Jets & Differences from the Existing F-22.

The F-22 Raptor, operational since 2005, is a fifth-generation stealth air superiority fighter renowned for its agility, stealth, and advanced avionics. However, after two decades, it faces limitations in an evolving threat era. The NGAD is envisioned as a “family of systems” rather than a single aircraft, comprising a manned fighter and supporting unmanned drones.  It will differ significantly. The NGAD (F-47) fighter’s specialities would include:-

Next-Level Stealth. The F-22’s stealth is exceptional, but the NGAD will likely use next-generation materials and designs to achieve even greater invisibility, including against emerging radar technologies. Building on the F-22’s stealth technology, the NGAD will likely incorporate broadband stealth, reducing detectability across a broader range of radar frequencies.

AI and Autonomy. The F-22 relies on human pilots for all decisions, whereas the NGAD will integrate AI to handle complex tasks, potentially reducing pilot workload or enabling autonomous missions. The jet may feature AI systems that manage flight, combat, and coordination with unmanned drones, potentially allowing for unmanned variants.

Hypersonic Capability. The F-22 can supercruise at Mach 1.5, but the NGAD may reach hypersonic speeds (Mach 5+), vastly improving its ability to strike and evade. While specifics are classified, the NGAD could achieve speeds far exceeding the F-22’s Mach 1.5 supercruise, possibly entering the hypersonic realm.

System Integration. The F-22 has limited data-sharing capabilities compared to the NGAD, which will operate within a highly networked environment, linking with other assets for real-time battlefield awareness. The NGAD is not just a standalone aircraft but part of a broader “family of systems,” including drones, advanced sensors, and cyber tools, all working together to dominate the battlespace. The NGAD could control or be supported by unmanned drones, expanding its operational flexibility.

Range, Endurance and Payload. The F-22 has a range of approximately 1,850 miles with external tanks, whereas NGAD is engineered for greater range, endurance and potentially larger weapon capacity. It will be designed for long-range missions critical for operations in expansive regions like the Indo-Pacific.

Flexible Architecture. Its modular design could enable rapid upgrades and mission-specific configurations, ensuring longevity and adaptability. The NGAD is a forward-looking platform designed for future warfare, while the F-22, though formidable, reflects the priorities of an earlier era. These features position the NGAD as a revolutionary platform designed to address the challenges of modern warfare against technologically advanced adversaries.

 

Likely Game Changer for U.S. Defence

The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program can redefine U.S. defence strategy, ushering in a new era of air superiority, enhanced deterrence, and reinforced multi-domain integration. The anticipation and excitement surrounding this potential transformation are palpable.

Air Superiority. The NGAD is designed to outperform near-peer adversaries like China’s J-20 and Russia’s Su-57. Its cutting-edge stealth, enhanced range, and AI-driven capabilities will allow the U.S. to dominate contested airspaces, even in heavily defended environments.

Deterrence. A formidable leap in air combat technology, the NGAD will discourage potential adversaries from challenging U.S. air dominance. Knowing they face a next-generation fighter capable of overwhelming their defences, adversaries may be deterred from aggressive actions.

Multi-Domain Dominance. The NGAD is not just a fighter but a networked system that integrates with space, cyber, and land-based forces. This interconnectivity allows it to act as a force multiplier, relaying battlefield intelligence and coordinating attacks with other assets, thus extending its impact far beyond traditional air combat.

Air Dominance. Successfully fielding the NGAD will ensure U.S. air dominance and reaffirm the nation’s position as the global leader in military innovation. Its advancements in AI, unmanned teaming, and next-gen propulsion could have spillover benefits for civilian aerospace, cyber warfare, and autonomous systems, instilling a sense of pride and confidence in the audience.

Despite its promise, the NGAD faces significant hurdles, including a projected per-unit cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and the challenge of integrating multiple breakthrough technologies. However, if these obstacles are overcome, the NGAD will shape the future of U.S. airpower for decades, ensuring its dominance in a rapidly evolving strategic landscape.

 

China’s Sixth-Generation Stealth Fighter and U.S.-China Competition.

China is also advancing its sixth-generation stealth fighter, with reports of prototypes being sighted. China’s program remains shrouded in secrecy, and the details are limited. The recent flying of sixth-generation prototypes suggests it is committed to matching or surpassing U.S. capabilities. This development coincides with the U.S. Pentagon’s NGAD efforts, highlighting fierce competition between these two powers.

Both nations are pouring resources into AI, hypersonics, and stealth, aiming to deploy sixth-generation fighters first and gain a strategic edge. A sixth-generation jet would enhance China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific, particularly in disputed areas like the South China Sea and near Taiwan. The U.S.-China rivalry extends beyond military hardware, shaping economic and diplomatic alignments worldwide. This competition drives rapid innovation and escalates tensions, with both nations seeking to outpace each other in defence technology. This close contest shapes global defence dynamics, influencing nations like India.

 

Impact on India

The US-China rivalry in sixth-generation fighters has significant implications for India, which faces opportunities and challenges. India faces threats from China and Pakistan, both of which are modernising their air forces. A Chinese sixth-generation fighter could tip the balance in regional conflicts, pressuring India to modernise its air force. India must counter Beijing’s growing military strength. India balances ties with the US and Russia while pursuing indigenous programs.

India’s airpower combines legacy and modern systems, reflecting its multi-source procurement strategy. It includes Russian Su-30MKI, MiG-29, French Mirage-2000, Rafale and indigenous Tejas fighters. The AMCA aims to deliver fifth-generation capabilities, though it’s still years from operational service. India’s fleet is smaller and comparatively less advanced, lacking operational fifth-generation fighters. It trails in AI, stealth, and hypersonic research. India is modernising through foreign purchases (Rafale), indigenous efforts (Tejas Mk2, AMCA), and partnerships with the U.S., France, and Israel. Limited resources spread across multiple programs hinder rapid progress. However, it must accelerate to keep pace with its rivals.

India’s reliance on Russian aircraft and systems risks U.S. sanctions, straining its ties with Washington despite a growing partnership. India must diversify its defence suppliers to reduce foreign dependence while boosting indigenous programs like the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The U.S.-China race underscores the urgency for India to enhance its technological and military capabilities to safeguard its interests.

India has defence deals with the U.S., but has not purchased U.S. fighter jets. Discussions about acquiring the F-35 Lightning II, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, are being speculated. The F-35 could bolster its air force, but its expense and restrictions might divert resources from the AMCA, India’s fifth-generation fighter in development. With China advancing rapidly, India cannot afford delays but needs a cost-effective, strategically aligned solution.

The NGAD, however, remains a U.S.-exclusive program, a highly classified initiative focused on developing a sixth-generation fighter for the U.S. Air Force. Its sensitive technologies and strategic importance make it unlikely to be shared with foreign partners soon.

 

Conclusion

As exemplified by the U.S.’s NGAD and China’s emerging platform, sixth-generation fighter jets are set to redefine air combat with unprecedented technology. For the U.S., the NGAD will ensure air dominance, while China’s efforts signal its rise as a military superpower. India, caught between these giants, faces a complex path. It lacks direct involvement with NGAD but must leverage U.S. ties, navigate CAATSA, and decide on deals like the F-35, all while pushing indigenous development.

India’s air power is at a crossroads in a world of rapid geopolitical and technological change. Modernisation is underway, but closing the gap with China will require strategic focus, investment, and innovation. The sixth-generation race is not just about jets—it’s about the future of warfare, and India must position itself to thrive in this new era.

 

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References and credits

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to the respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

References:-

  1. Krepinevich, Andrew. The Evolution of Air Dominance: Sixth-Generation Fighters and the Future of Air Combat. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2023.
  1. Gunzinger, Mark, and Bryan Clark. The Role of NGAD in Sustaining U.S. Air Superiority in the Pacific. Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2024.
  1. RAND Corporation. Next-Generation Fighter Aircraft: Strategic Considerations for the U.S. Air Force. RAND, 2023.
  1. Mehta, Aaron. U.S. Airpower in the Indo-Pacific: The NGAD’s Role in Detering China. Atlantic Council, 2024.
  1. Callaghan, John. “Sixth-Generation Fighter Jets and the Shift in U.S. Defence Strategy.” Journal of Strategic Studies 47, no. 1 (2024): 33-58.
  1. Holbrook, Sarah. “AI and Human-Machine Teaming in Next-Gen Fighters: Tactical Advantages and Challenges.” Air & Space Power Journal 38, no. 2 (2023): 45-70.
  1. Miller, James. “The Role of NGAD in Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO).” Military Review 104, no. 3 (2023): 22-41.
  1. Roberts, Ethan. “Geopolitical Implications of America’s Next Fighter Jet in the Indo-Pacific.” Defence and Security Analysis 40, no. 4 (2024): 90-112.
  1. Boeing Defence. Stealth, AI, and the Future of Sixth-Generation Fighters. Chicago, IL: Boeing Corporation, 2024.
  1. Northrop Grumman. Multi-Domain Warfare and NGAD: A Defence Industry Perspective. Falls Church, VA: Northrop Grumman, 2024.
  1. Jane’s Defence Weekly. Sixth-Generation Fighters: Key Developments and Program Milestones. London: Jane’s Information Group, 2024.
  1. Trevithick, Joseph. “What We Know About the U.S. Air Force’s Secret Sixth-Gen Fighter.” The War Zone (The Drive), January 18, 2024.
  1. Insinna, Valerie. “America’s NGAD Program and the Future of Air Superiority.” Defence News, February 7, 2024.
  1. Mizokami, Kyle. “The Air Force’s Future Fighter Jet: How the F-47 Will Change U.S. Airpower.” Popular Mechanics, March 5, 2024.
  1. Axe, David. “The Cost and Strategy Behind NGAD.” Forbes Defence, April 12, 2024.
  1. Thompson, Loren. The Aerospace Revolution: How Next-Generation Fighters Will Change Warfare. Washington, D.C.: Lexington Institute, 2023.

662:INDIA’S WATER CANNON AGAINST PAKISTAN-SPONSORED TERRORISM: INDUS WATER TREATY

 

My article was published on the “Life of Soldier” website

on 29 Apr 25.

 

 

“Blood and water cannot flow together”

– Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

 

The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan. The World Bank brokered it and governs the use of the Indus River system, which includes six rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. The Indus River system is critical for both countries’ irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water.

India held the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance on April 23, 2025, following the Pahalgam terrorist attack that killed 26 civilians. India’s decision, citing national security concerns, grants it greater control over the western rivers, potentially impacting Pakistan’s agriculture and water supply. Pakistan condemned the move as an “act of war,” suspending the Simla Agreement and closing the Wagah border. The World Bank, a treaty signatory, has urged dialogue but lacks enforcement power. This development heightens regional instability and raises concerns about future conflicts and diplomatic relations.

 

Key Provisions

Division of Rivers. Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) are allocated to Pakistan for unrestricted use, except for limited Indian uses (e.g., domestic, non-consumptive, and specified agricultural purposes). Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) are allocated to India for unrestricted use.

Water Sharing. Pakistan receives about 80% of the Indus system’s water (around 135 million acre-feet annually), while India gets 20%.

Infrastructure. India can build run-of-the-river dams on Western Rivers for hydropower, but cannot store water beyond specified limits. Pakistan can object to designs that violate the treaty.

Permanent Indus Commission. A bilateral body with representatives from both countries meets regularly to monitor implementation, share data, and resolve disputes.

 

Context and Significance.

The treaty was necessitated by the 1947 partition, which split the Indus basin, leaving canal headworks in India and irrigated lands in Pakistan. A 1948 standoff, when India briefly cut off water to Pakistan, underscored the need for a formal agreement. It is considered one of the most successful water-sharing treaties globally, surviving three wars.

The Indus system originates in the Himalayas, with major tributaries flowing through Indian-administered Jammu, Kashmir, and Pakistani-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan, making it geopolitically sensitive. In 2016, after a terrorist attack in Uri, India reviewed the treaty. In 2022 and 2023, India issued notices to Pakistan for treaty modification, citing “fundamental changes” like cross-border terrorism and environmental challenges, but no formal revocation has occurred. In 2023, Pakistan sought arbitration over Kishanganga and Ratle, while India challenged the arbitration process, preferring Neutral Expert resolution.

Pakistan, heavily dependent on the Indus for 90% of its water needs, fears reduced flows due to Indian projects or climate change. Delays in its storage infrastructure (e.g., Diamer-Bhasha Dam) exacerbate vulnerabilities. Glacial melt, erratic monsoons, and floods (e.g., 2010, 2022) strain the treaty’s framework, which lacks provisions for climate adaptation.

 

Recent Development

India has officially held the IWT with Pakistan in abeyance, marking a significant shift in bilateral relations. This decision was announced on April 23, 2025, following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. India invoked Article XII(3) of the IWT and sent a formal notice to Pakistan. The Ministry of Jal Shakti cited Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism, shifting demographics, and energy demands as reasons the agreement could no longer continue “in good faith.”​

With the treaty placed in abeyance, India is no longer obligated to share information regarding water storage levels or flow in the rivers of the Indus River System with Pakistan.​ India has ceased sharing hydrological data (e.g., water flow, snowmelt, flood updates) with Pakistan, halted technical meetings, and stopped allowing Pakistani inspections of Indian projects. India is no longer bound by treaty restrictions on building storage or hydropower projects on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).

 

Adverse Impact on Pakistan

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) poses significant adverse impacts on Pakistan, particularly in agriculture, water supply, energy, and economic stability.

Agriculture. Pakistan relies on the Indus River system for 80% of its irrigated agriculture, supporting 16 million hectares of farmland. The western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) allocated to Pakistan under the IWT provide 93% of its irrigation water. A 10-20% reduction in water availability could lead to significant declines in agricultural output, threatening food security and rural livelihoods. Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which employs 40% of the workforce and contributes 24% to GDP, faces severe risks. While India’s current infrastructure limits immediate large-scale water diversion, future dams or storage projects could reduce water availability, especially during critical sowing seasons (e.g., Rabi and Kharif), reduced flows could lower crop yields for wheat, rice, and cotton—key staples and export crops.

Water Scarcity in Urban Centres. Major cities like Karachi, Lahore, Multan, and Faisalabad depend on the Indus and its tributaries for drinking water and industrial use. Any reduction in river flows, even temporary, could exacerbate existing water scarcity. Pakistan already faces a per capita water availability of ~1,000 cubic meters, close to the “water scarce” threshold. Water rationing, public health crises, and industrial slowdowns could occur, particularly in Punjab and Sindh provinces, which rely heavily on the Indus.

Energy Sector. Pakistan generates significant electricity from hydropower plants like Tarbela (3,478 MW) and Mangla (1,000 MW), which rely on consistent river flows from the Indus and Jhelum. Reduced or irregular water flows could lower power generation, worsening Pakistan’s energy crisis. For example, a 10% reduction in Tarbela’s water inflow could cut its output by hundreds of megawatts, affecting millions of households.

Economic. Energy shortages could disrupt industrial production and increase reliance on costly imported fuels, straining Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves. A decline in crop production would reduce export revenues (e.g., rice and cotton) and increase food import costs, exacerbating Pakistan’s trade deficit. Reduced agricultural output could lead to job losses in rural areas, driving migration to urban centers and rising social unrest. Higher food and energy prices and potential infrastructure damage from flooding (if India releases water abruptly) could fuel inflation. Pakistan’s external debt (~$130 billion in 2025) limits its ability to fund mitigation measures. A 2023 World Bank study estimated that a 20% reduction in Indus water flows could shave 5-7% off Pakistan’s GDP over a decade.

Social and Political Fallout. Water shortages could spark protests, particularly in Sindh and Punjab, where water allocation disputes between provinces are already contentious. Provinces like Sindh, which rely on downstream flows, may accuse Punjab of hoarding water, exacerbating internal political divides.

 

India’s Justification and Legitimacy.

India’s justification and Legitimacy for holding in abeyance the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) hinges on the principle of a “fundamental change of circumstances,” as outlined in Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. New Delhi argues that Pakistan’s continued support for cross-border terrorism, especially following incidents like the April 2025 Pahalgam attack, violates the underlying premise of peaceful bilateral relations that formed the basis of the IWT in 1960. India contends that a country facilitating terrorist activity cannot expect continued cooperation on vital issues like water sharing. While the IWT lacks a unilateral withdrawal clause, India maintains that suspension, not withdrawal, can be a legitimate, proportionate response to persistent security threats.

 

Diplomatic and Legal Aspects

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the suspension an “act of war” and announced retaliatory measures, including suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement and closing the Wagah border.

Pakistan may seek World Bank mediation or international arbitration. The IWT lacks a unilateral exit clause, and India’s suspension may not be easily challenged under international law if framed as a response to terrorism (per Article 62, Vienna Convention). Experts argue India’s suspension is permissible under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, citing a “fundamental change of circumstances” due to Pakistan’s alleged terrorism support for terrorism. The World Bank, a treaty signatory, has urged dialogue but cannot enforce compliance.

Pakistan may seek neutral expert mediation or arbitration, but India’s refusal to cooperate could render these mechanisms ineffective. Escalating the issue to the UN or other forums may gain Pakistan sympathy but will unlikely force India to reverse the suspension.

 

The Only Way out for Pakistan.

The only viable way for Pakistan to restore the Indus Waters Treaty is through diplomatic engagement coupled with tangible actions to address India’s core security concerns, particularly those related to cross-border terrorism. India’s decision, justified under the “fundamental change of circumstances” clause in international law, is rooted in accusations of Pakistan’s support for militant activities. Therefore, Pakistan would need to:-

  • Stop escalatory rhetoric (including regular and brash nuclear sabre rattling) and retaliatory actions, as these would only harden India’s stance.
  • Demonstrate a verifiable crackdown on terror infrastructure operating from its territory, especially groups targeting India.
  • Offer security guarantees and confidence-building measures that acknowledge India’s national security concerns to rebuild trust and initiate fresh dialogue.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s path to treaty restoration lies not just in legal appeals but in restructuring the political and security context in which the treaty was suspended. Only by addressing the root causes—especially terrorism—can the IWT be revived in a stable, sustainable way.

 

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Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References:-

  1. Financial Times. “Undermining the Indus Waters Treaty imperils Indian security.” April 26, 2025.
  1. Reuters. “India suspends Indus Waters Treaty after Pahalgam terror attack.” April 23, 2025.
  1. Al Jazeera. “Pakistan calls Indus Treaty suspension ‘an act of war’.” April 24, 2025.
  1. The Hindu. “India halts hydrological data sharing with Pakistan under Indus Treaty.” April 25, 2025.
  1. BBC. “Water Wars? India wields Indus Treaty amid rising tensions with Pakistan.” April 27, 2025.
  1. Dawn. “Pakistan to seek World Bank mediation on Indus Treaty row with India.” April 28, 2025.
  1. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). Indus Treaty as a Strategic Lever: Implications for India’s National Security. Issue Brief, 2023.
  1. Rajagopalan, Rajeswari Pillai. India’s Water Diplomacy: Reclaiming the Strategic Narrative. Observer Research Foundation, 2023.
  1. Observer Research Foundation (ORF). India’s Options under the Indus Waters Treaty: A Strategic Overview. 2022.
  1. United States Institute of Peace (USIP). Resolving India-Pakistan Water Disputes: A Legal and Strategic Perspective. 2020.
  1. International Crisis Group. Water Pressure: Climate Risk and Security in Pakistan. ICG Asia Report No. 297, 2018.
  1. World Bank. Indus Waters Treaty and Current Status of Disputes. [World Bank Briefing Note, 2023].
  1. Wirsing, Robert G. The Indus Waters Treaty: Political Stability and Water Security in South Asia. Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2013.
  1. Salman, Salman M.A. The Indus Waters Treaty: A History of a Treaty that has Survived Wars and Disputes. Water International, Vol. 36, No. 4, 2011.

661: Rafale M for Indian Navy

 

Interesting conversation with Shiv Aroor (NDTV) on how Balakot would have played out differently with the Rafale aircraft.

 

Link to the video:-

https://x.com/ndtv/status/1916888175789719614

 

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