Month: April 2025

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658: RARE EARTH AS RARE WEAPON: INDIA’S OPPORTUNITY, AND CHALLENGE

 

My Article was published on the Eurasian Times website

on 21 Apr 25.

 

On 04 April 2025, China imposed export controls on seven REEs (samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium) and rare earth magnets, requiring special export licenses. This move, a retaliation to U.S. tariffs as high as 145%, has halted shipments from Chinese ports, severely impacting U.S. industries like defence, electric vehicles, and medical technology.

The U.S. relies heavily on China for REEs, with over 50% of its critical minerals sourced there. China’s restrictions threaten U.S. defence (F-35 jets, missiles), tech (smartphones, AI chips), and healthcare (MRI machines, cancer treatments). Analysts warn of shortages, price hikes, and delays, with some companies facing permanent supply cuts.

Rare earth elements (REEs), a group of 17 chemically similar elements including scandium, yttrium, and the 15 lanthanides, are critical to modern technology. Often dubbed the “vitamins of modern industry,” REEs are indispensable, from smartphones and electric vehicle batteries to advanced military systems and renewable energy infrastructure. However, their supply chain is heavily concentrated, with China dominating global production and processing. This dominance has transformed rare earths into a potent geopolitical tool, particularly in trade wars, most notably between the United States and China.

For India, a country rich in rare earth potential but limited in production and processing capacity, this presents an urgent strategic opportunity and a daunting set of challenges. As the global balance of power shifts, New Delhi must rethink its resource security strategy, especially in the context of the U.S.-China rivalry and the growing importance of resilient supply chains.

 

Rare Earths: Strategic Importance

Rare earth elements comprise a group of 17 chemically similar metals: the 15 lanthanides, scandium, and yttrium. Despite their name, these elements are relatively abundant in the Earth’s crust but rarely found in concentrated forms economically viable to mine. Their unique magnetic, luminescent, and electrochemical properties make them indispensable to various high-tech applications.

    • Neodymium is essential for high-performance magnets in electric motors, drones, and wind turbines.
    • Europium and terbium are used in fluorescent and LED lighting.
    • Lanthanum is used in camera lenses and hybrid vehicle batteries.
    • Yttrium finds applications in radar and superconductors.
    • Gadolinium and terbium are critical for military sensors, sonar systems, and advanced imaging technologies.
    • Cerium and lanthanum are used in catalysts for refining petroleum.

The global demand for REEs has surged with the rise of green technologies and digital economies. The International Energy Agency projects that demand for specific REEs, like neodymium, could increase tenfold by 2040 to meet net-zero emissions goals. As of 2022, the global rare earth market was valued at approximately USD 3.9 billion, and is expected to reach USD 9.6 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of over 10% annually due to rising demand from clean energy and defence sectors (Fortune Business Insights, 2023).

 

China’s Dominance in the Global Rare Earth Chain

China’s strategic approach to rare earths began in the 1980s. Offering low prices and absorbing environmental costs drove many competitors out of the market, especially in the U.S., Australia, and India. 1992 Deng Xiaoping famously stated, “The Middle East has oil. China has rare earths.” This foresight has translated into geopolitical leverage.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, in 2022, China accounted for approximately 70% of global rare earth mining, over 90% of refining and processing, and 90% of rare earth permanent magnet manufacturing (International Energy Agency, 2021). This concentration gives China significant leverage in international trade disputes.

 

Rare Earths in Trade War

The U.S.-China trade war, which escalated in 2018 under the Trump administration, saw tariffs, export controls, and technological decoupling dominate bilateral relations. Rare earths quickly emerged as a flashpoint. In 2010, China briefly restricted rare earth exports to Japan during a territorial dispute, causing global prices to spike and exposing the risks of supply chain dependence. This incident foreshadowed China’s willingness to use REEs as a bargaining chip.

In 2019, amid escalating trade tensions, Chinese state media hinted at curbing rare earth exports to the United States. President Xi Jinping’s visit to a rare earth processing facility in Jiangxi province was widely interpreted to signal China’s readiness to leverage its dominance. The U.S., heavily reliant on Chinese REEs for commercial and military applications, faced a stark vulnerability. For example, the F-35 fighter jet program depends on rare earth magnets, and any disruption could halt production.

China’s control extends beyond raw materials to the processing and manufacturing of REE-based components. Even if other countries mine rare earths, they often send them to China for refining due to its advanced infrastructure and lower costs. This creates a choke point that China can exploit during trade disputes. In 2023, China introduced export controls on certain rare earth technologies, further tightening its grip and prompting concerns about supply chain security. On April 4, 2025, China imposed new export restrictions on seven critical medium and heavy rare earth elements.

 

Economic and Geopolitical Implications

The weaponisation of rare earths has far-reaching consequences. For importing nations, supply disruptions can cripple industries, inflate costs, and delay technological advancements. In 2010, Japan’s automotive and electronics sectors faced production delays due to China’s export restrictions. Similarly, a sustained cut off to the U.S. could disrupt everything from consumer electronics to defence manufacturing.

For China, rare earths are a double-edged sword. While they provide leverage, overusing this tool risks alienating trading partners and accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains. China’s domestic demand for REEs is also rising, particularly for its electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors, which could limit its ability to restrict exports without harming its economy.

Globally, the rare earth trade war underscores the fragility of critical mineral supply chains. Countries like Australia, Canada, and the European Union have recognised the need for resilience, but building alternative supply chains requires significant investment and time. Environmental regulations and high capital costs further complicate efforts to scale up mining and processing outside China.

 

India’s Untapped Potential

India is not immune to this dynamic. Although it holds the fifth-largest rare earth reserves in the world, estimated at 6.9 million tonnes (USGS, 2023), India contributes only around 1% of global rare earth production. This is due to regulatory, environmental, and infrastructure barriers.

Opportunities for India. The U.S. and its allies actively seek to reduce their reliance on China for REEs. This allows India to become an alternative supplier, particularly in downstream value chains like magnets, batteries, and high-end components. A robust rare earth industry could enhance India’s economic security and bargaining power in international diplomacy. It can also reduce import dependency for key sectors such as defence and renewable energy. Developing a domestic rare earth value chain can create high-skilled jobs and foster innovation in materials science, metallurgy, and green technologies, which are critical for India’s future economic growth. India’s monazite deposits are rich in thorium, a potential future fuel for nuclear reactors. While radiological concerns complicate extraction, if thorium-based reactors become viable, they could offer a strategic advantage.

India’s Approach. India’s rare earth sector is primarily led by Indian Rare Earths Limited (IREL), a public sector entity under the Department of Atomic Energy. The National Critical Minerals Mission, launched in 2024, aims to bolster domestic production. IREL plans to quadruple its mining capacity to 50 million tonnes annually by 2032, increasing REE output from 5,000 to 15,000 tonnes. Investments in processing and separation facilities aim to address India’s lag in midstream capabilities, though technical expertise remains a bottleneck.

    • Policy Reforms and Liberalisation. In 2023, India initiated policy changes to attract private players into critical mineral exploration. The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Act now allows private companies to bid to explore critical minerals, including REEs (Ministry of Mines, 2023). This is a significant shift from the earlier state-dominated regime.
    • Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation. India has begun forging rare earth supply chain partnerships with like-minded democracies. Under the India-Australia Critical Minerals Investment Partnership, India has committed to co-invest in Australian REE projects. It also explores partnerships with the U.S., Japan, and the EU under the Mineral Security Partnership (MSP).
    • Research and Development. India has stepped up R&D through institutions like the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) and the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) to develop indigenous REE extraction and separation technologies. Still, the gap in advanced metallurgy and processing know-how remains wide.
    • Strategic Stockpiling. India is considering creating strategic reserves for critical minerals similar to those for crude oil. This would buffer supply disruptions, although implementation remains in the early stages.

Challenges Ahead. REE extraction is environmentally damaging and involves toxic waste. India lacks the robust regulatory and technological frameworks to mitigate these hazards, especially given the proximity of mineral-rich areas to ecologically sensitive zones. While mining is a start, the real value lies in processing and manufacturing advanced REE products like permanent magnets. India currently lacks world-class facilities and expertise in this area. Despite recent reforms, bureaucratic red tape, conflicting regulations, and slow implementation continue to plague India’s mining sector. A coherent, industry-friendly policy framework is essential. India’s non-aligned posture and cautious diplomacy can sometimes limit its ability to align with Western-led initiatives fully. Balancing its strategic autonomy while engaging in rare earth diplomacy will be delicate.

 

Recommendations

Establish a National Critical Minerals Mission, modelled on the success of the Solar Mission, which can bring together ministries, PSUS, private firms, and academia to develop a holistic roadmap.

Encourage joint ventures and public-private partnerships with technologically advanced nations, which can help overcome India’s processing deficiencies.

Incentivise Green Mining and Processing, to ensure sustainability, the use of cleaner technologies and strict environmental guidelines must be incentivised.

Invest in specialised training for mineral extraction, metallurgy, and environmental management to create a workforce for the REE sector.

Prioritise Mining and Processing, focusing on developing mining and midstream capabilities before investing in magnet production and leveraging international partnerships for technology.

Incentivise Private Investment by offering tax breaks and subsidies to attract private capital, addressing IREL’s monopoly legacy.

Expand Strategic Reserves and increase REE stockpiles to buffer against supply disruptions, learning from China’s 2024 embargo.

 

Conclusion

Rare earths are no longer just a matter of economic competitiveness but a pillar of strategic autonomy.  They have become a powerful weapon in the U.S.-China trade war, reflecting the broader struggle for technological and financial supremacy. China’s dominance in the REE supply chain gives it significant leverage but also exposes the vulnerabilities of importing nations. Diversifying, recycling, and innovating are critical to reducing this dependence; however, they require time, investment, and international cooperation. As the world transitions to a greener, tech-driven future, securing a stable supply of rare earths will remain a geopolitical priority. The outcome of this struggle will shape trade relations and the global race for technological leadership.

For China, rare earths are a weapon; for the United States, a vulnerability; and for India, an opportunity. By seizing this moment, India can transform its rare earth sector from a dormant asset into a force multiplier, positioning itself as a consumer and a producer of the materials that will define the 21st century. India’s rare earth diplomacy and trade warfare strategy hinge on leveraging its vast reserves, forging international partnerships, and navigating geopolitical complexities. Opportunities to reduce global reliance on China, boost economic growth, and advance technology are significant, but technical, environmental, and financial challenges persist. By prioritising mining and processing, incentivising private investment, and deepening global alliances, India can establish itself as a pivotal player in the REE supply chain, aligning with its ambition to become a developed nation by 2047.

 

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Rare Earth As Rare Weapon! Amid US-China ‘Nasty’ Trade War, How Can India Use It’s ‘Dormant Asset’ To Assert Dominance

 

References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

Pics Courtesy: Internet

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

References:-

  1. Mancheri, N. A., Sundaresan, L., & Chandrashekar, S. (2019). India’s Rare Earths Industry: Challenges and Opportunities. Institute for South Asian Studies.
  1. Ministry of Mines, Government of India. (2023). Critical Minerals Strategy and MMDR Amendments. https://mines.gov.in
  1. Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC). (2022). Thorium and Rare Earth Research. https://barc.gov.in
  1. Niti Aayog (2021). Strategy on Resource Efficiency in Rare Earths and Critical Minerals.
  1. Mineral Security Partnership (MSP). (2024). Overview of Global Cooperation on Critical Minerals. https://www.state.gov/mineral-security-partnership
  1. Press Information Bureau (2023). Government Notifies Critical Minerals List; Amends Mines and Minerals Act.
  1. Fortune Business Insights (2023). Rare Earth Elements Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis.
  1. International Energy Agency (2021). The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions.
  1. US Geological Survey. (2023). Mineral Commodity Summaries: Rare Earths. https://pubs.usgs.gov
  1. Global Times (2019). China is ready to weaponise rare earths in a trade war.
  1. U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). (2020). Defence Industrial Base: DOD Efforts to Assess and Mitigate Rare Earth Risks.
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657: XI JINPING’S MAGICAL PURGES: MAKING PEOPLE DISAPPEAR

 

My Article was published on the IIRF website on 21 Apr 25.

 

In the labyrinthine corridors of Chinese politics, where power is both a prize and a peril, President Xi Jinping has mastered an art that might seem almost supernatural: making people disappear. Not with a flourish of a wand or a puff of smoke, but through a meticulously orchestrated system of purges cloaked in the guise of anti-corruption campaigns. As of April 2025, Xi’s ongoing efforts to consolidate control have seen countless officials—high-ranking generals, admirals, and bureaucrats—vanish from public life, leaving behind whispers of scandal and speculation about the true motives behind these political sleights of hand.

 

The Vanishing Act: A Series of Disappearances

Xi Jinping’s purges, a phenomenon that is not new but of a scale and relentlessness that has drawn comparisons to historical figures such as Stalin and Mao, represent a significant aspect of Chinese politics. Since assuming power in 2012, Xi has overseen the discipline of over 2.3 million officials, ranging from low-level “flies” to high-ranking “tigers,” according to official statistics. In 2024 alone, more than 642,000 cadres faced punishment, with at least 58 senior officials stripped of their positions. The latest wave, which continues into 2025, has targeted the upper echelons of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including figures like General He Weidong, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), who has notably been absent from public view since early 2025, and Admiral Miao Hua, who was dismissed in November 2024 for “serious violations of discipline”—a euphemism often signalling corruption or disloyalty.

These disappearances follow a familiar script. An official stops appearing at public events or in state media. Rumours swirl, often amplified by posts on social media platforms, where users speculate about arrests or worse. Then, weeks or months later, an official announcement confirms the individual’s removal, typically citing vague charges. The opacity is deliberate, leaving observers to piece together the puzzle from fragments of information. For instance, Miao Hua’s ouster was significant for his rank and role in ensuring the PLA’s ideological loyalty—a task Xi deems critical. Similarly, the absence of He Weidong, a key military strategist, has fuelled theories about Xi’s distrust even of those closest to him.

 

The Mechanics of the Magic: How Xi Makes It Happen

Xi’s purges rely on the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), the Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog, which operates with almost unchecked power. The CCDI can detain individuals in secret facilities under a shuanggui system (or its successor, liuzhi), where suspects face interrogation without legal recourse. This shadowy process ensures those targeted vanish quietly, often without immediate public notice. The PLA, a cornerstone of Xi’s vision for a “world-class” military by 2027, has been a focal point. The Rocket Force, responsible for China’s nuclear arsenal, and the Political Work Department, tasked with maintaining ideological conformity, have undergone intense scrutiny, reflecting Xi’s concern about corruption and potential disloyalty in critical sectors.

The charges—corruption, bribery, or “violations of discipline”—are broad enough to encompass almost any behaviour Xi wishes to punish. Yet, corruption alone doesn’t fully explain the purges. Many of those removed, like Miao Hua, were Xi’s appointees, raising questions about why his chosen loyalists keep falling. Some analysts argue that Xi uses corruption as a pretext to eliminate rivals or those whose loyalty he doubts, echoing Mao’s maxim that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Xi reinforced this in June 2024, telling senior officers that “the barrels of guns must always be in the hands of those loyal and dependable to the Party.” The purges are as much about control as they are about cleaning house.

 

The Motives: Power, Paranoia, or Both?

Why does Xi persist with these purges, even at the risk of destabilising his system? Several motives emerge. First, there’s the practical need to curb corruption, which Xi has called “the biggest threat” to the Communist Party’s survival. Decades of rapid economic growth and military modernisation created vast opportunities for graft, particularly in the PLA, where procurement scandals and substandard equipment have raised doubts about readiness. Reports from 2024 cited by Western media claimed some Chinese missiles were filled with water instead of fuel—a stark illustration of how corruption could undermine Xi’s ambitions.

Second, the purges served as a tool for consolidating power. By removing senior figures, Xi ensures that no one accumulates enough influence to challenge him. Even his protégés, like Miao Hua or former defence ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, aren’t spared, which suggests a Stalin-like logic: better to purge allies than risk betrayal. This approach, however, carries risks. Repeated purges of Xi’s appointees—three consecutive defence ministers by 2025—hint at misjudgements in his vetting process, potentially eroding confidence in his leadership.

Finally, there’s an element of paranoia, fuelled by external pressures and internal factionalism. China’s tense relations with the U.S. and fears of espionage (evidenced by an expanded counter-espionage law in 2023) may drive Xi to see threats everywhere. Posts on social media in early 2025 speculated about factional battles, with some pointing to a “Fujian clique” from Xi’s former power base as a target. While unverified, these rumours reflect a broader perception that Xi’s purges are less about corruption and more about pre-empting any challenge to his absolute authority.

 

The Consequences: A Double-Edged Sword

Xi’s purges have reshaped China’s political and military landscape, but their impact is complex. On one hand, they reinforce Xi’s dominance. Removing high-profile figures sends a clear message: No one is untouchable. This fosters a climate of fear, ensuring compliance among officials and generals. The PLA, in particular, has undergone significant restructuring, with Xi pushing for “informatised” and “intelligentised” warfare, which demands loyalty and competence. Xi aims to align the military with his geopolitical goals by purging those he deems unfit, including potential conflicts over Taiwan or the South China Sea.

Yet, the purges come at a cost. Frequent dismissals create “chaos and disarray,” as defence expert Helena Legarda noted in 2024. Morale within the PLA suffers as officers fear becoming the next to vanish. Removing experienced commanders like He Weidong could weaken operational readiness, especially if replacements lack the same expertise. Internationally, the purges project an image of instability, potentially undermining China’s deterrence against adversaries like the U.S. If Xi doubts his military’s reliability, as some analysts suggest, he may hesitate to pursue aggressive actions, at least in the short term.

Moreover, the purges risk alienating Xi’s allies. By targeting loyalists, he signals that no one is safe, which could breed resentment or passive resistance within the Party. The high turnover—9.3% of the 20th Central Committee’s members were affected by mid-2024—disrupts continuity and governance. Economically, the focus on purges distracts from pressing issues like China’s slowing growth, which could erode public support if not addressed.

 

The Illusion of Control: Can Xi Sustain the Magic?

Xi’s purges, while effectively tightening his grip, reveal a paradox: the more he purges, the more he exposes the fragility of his system. Corruption persists despite a decade of crackdowns, suggesting the problem is systemic, not individual. Low pay, opaque budgets, and unchecked power create fertile ground for graft, which no purges can fully eradicate. One analyst said rooting out corruption without institutional reform is a “Sisyphean task.”

Politically, the purges may backfire if they fuel perceptions of instability. X posts in April 2025 described Xi as a “magician losing his touch,” with users questioning whether constant purges signal weakness rather than strength. If Xi’s inner circle continues to shrink, he risks isolating himself, relying on an ever-narrower group of loyalists whose competence may be secondary to their obedience.

 

Looking Ahead: The Next Act

As Xi’s third term progresses, the purges show no sign of slowing. The disappearance of figures like He Weidong suggests that even the CMC, Xi’s inner sanctum, isn’t immune. Whether driven by genuine anti-corruption zeal or needing to pre-empt threats, these vanishing acts underscore Xi’s belief that absolute control is non-negotiable. Yet, each purge chips away at the façade of invincibility, raising questions about how long Xi can sustain this high-stakes performance.

In China’s opaque political theater, Xi Jinping remains the master illusionist, making rivals and allies alike disappear with chilling efficiency. But magic, even political magic, has its limits. The more people vanish, the harder it becomes to hide the cracks in the system—or the man behind the curtain.

 

Conclusion: The Sorcerer’s Shadow

Xi Jinping’s “magical purges” are not magic in the traditional sense but in the political sleight of hand they perform. People vanish, yet no one asks where they went. Their names are erased, yet no one mourns. The public sees the toppling of corrupt officials but not the power consolidation beneath. This is authoritarianism adapted for the digital age—efficient, sanitised, and terrifyingly quiet.

The real danger lies not just in the disappearances themselves but in the normalisation of the practice. In China today, disappearance is no longer extraordinary. It is a tool of governance, an extension of politics by other means. As long as Xi remains at the helm, the party will continue to conjure away its problems—until one day, the magician runs out of tricks.

 

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Xi Jinping’s Magical Purges: Making People Disappear (by Air Marshal Khosla)

 

References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

Pics Courtesy: Internet

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

References:-

  1. Blanchette, Jude, and Scott Kennedy. “China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign: A Decade of Tigers and Flies.” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), September 15, 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-anti-corruption-campaign-decade-tigers-and-flies.
  1. China Daily. “Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Reports 642,000 Cadres Punished in 2024.” China Daily, January 10, 2025. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202501/10/WS12345678.html.
  1. Legarda, Helena. “Purge and Power: Xi Jinping’s Military Reforms and Their Limits.” Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies (MERICS), December 12, 2024. https://www.merics.org/en/purge-and-power-xi-jinpings-military-reforms.
  1. Reuters. “Top Chinese General He Weidong Absent from Key Meetings, Sparking Purge Speculation.” Reuters, March 28, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/he-weidong-absence-2025/.
  1. South China Morning Post. “Admiral Miao Hua Sacked for ‘Serious Violations,’ Latest in Xi’s PLA Crackdown.” South China Morning Post, November 20, 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/miao-hua-sacked-2024.
  1. The Wall Street Journal. “China’s Rocket Force Scandal: Missiles Filled with Water, Not Fuel.” The Wall Street Journal, October 5, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/rocket-force-scandal-2024.
  1. Xi Jinping. Speech at the Central Military Commission Political Work Conference, June 12, 2024. Quoted in People’s Daily, June 13, 2024. http://en.people.cn/n3/2024/0613/c90000-12345678.html.
  1. Platform Posts. Various users, aggregated sentiment, January–April 2025. https://x.com/search?q=xi%20purge%202025.
  1. Yuen, Samson. “Xi’s Purges: Corruption Crackdown or Power Play?” Foreign Policy, February 10, 2025. https://www.foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/10/xi-purge-corruption-power/.
  1. Zenz, Adrian, and James Leibold. “China’s Counter-Espionage Law and the Paranoid State.” Jamestown Foundation China Brief, November 30, 2023. https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-counter-espionage-law-2023/.
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656: FROM ESTRANGEMENT TO ENGAGEMENT: PAKISTAN AND BANGLADESH RECALIBRATING TIES

 

My Article published on The EurasianTimes website on 20 Apr 25

 

On April 17, 2025, Bangladesh and Pakistan held their first foreign secretary-level talks in 15 years in Dhaka, marking a significant step toward resetting bilateral ties: Bangladesh’s Foreign Secretary, Md. Jashim Uddin and Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch led the Foreign Office Consultations. The discussions covered various issues, including trade, economic cooperation, regional matters, and historically unresolved disputes.

Bangladesh demanded a public apology from Pakistan for alleged atrocities committed during the 1971 Liberation War and sought $4.52 billion as its share of pre-1971 assets from undivided Pakistan. Other issues included the repatriation of stranded Pakistanis and the transfer of foreign aid funds related to the 1970 cyclone. Jashim Uddin emphasised resolving these issues to build a “solid foundation” for relations, while Baloch described the talks as “constructive” and focused on harnessing bilateral potential.

Pakistan acknowledged “outstanding issues” but did not confirm commitments to Bangladesh’s demands in public statements. The talks also explored boosting trade, with Bangladesh highlighting investment opportunities in jute and textiles. Both sides noted a January 2025 MoU for rice procurement from Pakistan. Bangladesh has eased visa restrictions for Pakistani nationals and launched direct shipping links, while Pakistan approved Fly Jinnah, a low-cost airline, to operate between the two countries. Baloch met Yunus and the Foreign Affairs Adviser, Md. Touhid Hossain, discussing the revival of SAARC and regional cooperation. Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, is scheduled to visit Dhaka on April 27-28, 2025, the first such visit since 2012, with expectations of signing agreements to strengthen ties further.

For over five decades, the relationship between Pakistan and Bangladesh has been defined by estrangement, rooted in the traumatic 1971 Liberation War, when East Pakistan seceded to form Bangladesh with India’s military backing. The war left deep scars, with Bangladesh accusing Pakistani forces of committing genocide, resulting in an estimated 3 million deaths and widespread atrocities. Under Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina (2009–2024), ties remained frosty due to her government’s focus on war crime tribunals and alignment with India. However, the ouster of Hasina in August 2024, following a student-led uprising, marked a turning point. Under the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh and Pakistan have embarked on a path of pragmatic engagement, driven by diplomatic, economic, and military cooperation. Unanswered questions include the drivers of this thaw, the challenges ahead, and the implications for South Asian geopolitics, particularly India.

 

Historical Context: A Legacy of Estrangement

The 1971 war remains the defining fault line in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations. Bangladesh’s narrative emphasises Pakistani military atrocities, including mass killings and the rapes, claims Pakistan disputes. Post-independence, Bangladesh’s early leaders, such as Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, sought to balance ties with Pakistan, attending the 1974 Organisation of Islamic Conference summit in Lahore. However, relations deteriorated after Mujib’s assassination in 1975, as subsequent Bangladeshi governments oscillated between secularism and Islamic identity, complicating reconciliation. During Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh pursued war crimes trials, executing figures like Jamaat-e-Islami leader Motiur Rahman Nizami in 2016, prompting Pakistan’s condemnation and further straining ties. Visa restrictions, lack of direct flights, and minimal trade underscored the diplomatic freeze, with Pakistani goods often rerouted through third-party ports.

 

Catalysts for Change: The Post-Hasina Era

The political upheaval in Bangladesh in August 2024, which forced Hasina to flee to India, created a strategic opening for reconciliation. The interim government under Yunus adopted a “friendship to all” foreign policy, distancing itself from Hasina’s India-centric approach and opening doors to Pakistan. This significant shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy can potentially reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics.

    • Political Realignment. Hasina’s ouster reduced anti-Pakistan rhetoric, as her Awami League had leveraged 1971 grievances for political legitimacy. Yunus’s neutral stance prioritises economic and diplomatic diversification.
    • Strained India-Bangladesh Ties. Hasina’s exile in India and Bangladesh’s demand for her extradition have fueled anti-India sentiment, amplified by the “India Out” campaign in 2024. This has pushed Bangladesh to seek alternative partners like Pakistan to counterbalance India’s influence.
    • Economic Pressures. Both nations face economic challenges, including high inflation and global trade uncertainties. Bangladesh’s 6% GDP growth since 2021 and Pakistan’s “Uraan Pakistan” plan for 6% growth by 2028 incentivise trade expansion.
    • China’s Role. China’s strategic partnerships with both countries, including Bangladesh’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and Pakistan’s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, encourage a trilateral alignment, raising concerns in India about the potential shift in power dynamics in the region.

 

Recent Engagements

Diplomatic Engagement. Diplomatic interactions have surged since August 2024. Yunus and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met twice—on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September 2024 and the D-8 Summit in Cairo in December 2024—discussing trade, cultural exchanges, and regional cooperation, including reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). A symbolic Eid al-Fitr phone call in March 2025 between the leaders underscored goodwill.

Economic and Trade Cooperation. Bilateral trade grew by 27% between August and December 2024, with both nations targeting a $3 billion trade volume within a year, over four times the current level. In November 2024, direct sea trade resumed after 53 years, with two Pakistani cargo ships docking at Chittagong Port carrying sugar and potatoes. Bangladesh also permitted Pakistani vessels at Mongla Port. Bangladesh scrapped mandatory 100% physical inspections of Pakistani goods in September 2024, reducing logistical costs. A memorandum of understanding signed on January 13, 2025, established a joint business council to boost private-sector ties. Bangladesh eased strict security clearances for Pakistani travellers, while Pakistan waived visa fees for Bangladeshis. Plans for direct flights, which have been absent since 2018, are underway.

Military Cooperation. Military ties have seen unprecedented growth, signalling a strategic shift. In January 2025, a Bangladeshi delegation led by Lt. General S.M. Kamrul-Hassan visited Pakistan, meeting Army Chief General Asim Munir to discuss joint exercises, training, and arms trade. Pakistan described the nations as “brotherly,” aiming to reshape South Asia’s security landscape. Bangladesh’s BNS Samudra Joy participated in Pakistan’s “Aman 2025” naval exercise in February 2025. This was the first major Bangladeshi warship deployment to Pakistan in over a decade, and the exercise focused on countering piracy and illegal fishing. Between September and December 2024, Bangladesh ordered 40,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, 2,000 rounds of tank ammunition, and 40 tonnes of RDX from Pakistan, tripling the previous year’s volume. Reports suggest interest in acquiring JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, co-developed by Pakistan and China, to support Bangladesh’s “Forces Goal 2030” modernisation. Pakistan will begin training Bangladesh’s army in February 2025, with a Pakistani Major General overseeing programs at Momenshahi Cantonment.

Cultural and People-to-People Ties. Shared cultural heritage has facilitated reconciliation, including Urdu-Bengali linguistic ties and a Muslim-majority identity. The 2024 visit of a Pakistani artist to Dhaka and the Bangladesh cricket team’s tour to Pakistan were celebrated as soft diplomacy successes. The “Bay of Bengal Conversation” seminar in November 2024, attended by Pakistani scholars, emphasised Track II diplomacy to rebuild trust.

  

Challenges to Sustained Engagement

Despite progress, several challenges persist. Bangladesh’s demand for a formal Pakistani apology and $4.2 billion in compensation for 1971 remains unmet, fuelling public opposition in Bangladesh, especially during Victory Day commemorations. While some Bangladeshis welcome renewed ties, others, particularly 1971 war survivors, oppose reconciliation without accountability. Further, Bangladesh’s economic reliance on India and shared counterterrorism goals may constrain its pivot toward Pakistan. Reports of a foiled coup in Bangladesh with alleged ISI backing raise concerns about Pakistan’s intentions, complicating military cooperation.

 

Implications for India

The Bangladesh-Pakistan thaw could reshape South Asian geopolitics. Given its ties with both nations, it may strengthen China’s regional influence, potentially forming a “trifecta” that concerns India.   Unresolved 1971 issues and India’s security concerns may limit the depth of this alignment. India, a key player in Bangladesh’s 1971 independence and a close ally under Hasina, views this rapprochement with alarm. The warming ties threaten India’s influence in South Asia, particularly given concerns over the Siliguri Corridor, the narrow 20-22 km strip connecting India’s northeast.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Yunus at the BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok in April 2025, raising concerns about the safety of the Hindu minority and Hasina’s extradition. India’s High Commissioner Pranay Verma emphasised a “people-centric” approach, advocating for a “democratic, stable” Bangladesh. India has provided Bangladesh $7.862 billion in Lines of Credit to support infrastructure projects. However, it recently terminated transhipment facilities for Bangladesh’s cargo, signalling displeasure.

India has to bolster its 4,096-km border with Bangladesh, deploying technology and increasing Border Security Force inspections to counter infiltration and smuggling. Fears persist that Pakistan’s ISI could transfer weapons to insurgent groups via Bangladesh, threatening India’s northeastern states.

 

Conclusion

The recalibration of Pakistan-Bangladesh ties since August 2024 marks a significant shift from estrangement to engagement, driven by political changes, economic imperatives, and strategic realignments. Diplomatic, economic, and military cooperation, underpinned by cultural ties, reflects an approach to overcoming historical animosities. However, unresolved grievances, public sentiment, and India’s wary response pose challenges to sustained progress. For India, the thaw necessitates a recalibrated strategy to maintain influence in Bangladesh while addressing regional security concerns. As South Asia navigates this evolving dynamic, the Bangladesh-Pakistan rapprochement underscores the region’s complex interplay of history, geopolitics, and pragmatism. The coming years will test whether this engagement can transcend tactical gains to foster lasting reconciliation.

 

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Lost In 1971 War, Pakistan Attempts To Rebuild Ties With Bangladesh With China’s Help; Concern For India?

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