Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.
My article published on the EurasianTimes Website on 26 Dec 24.
PAKTIKA UNDER FIRE: PAKISTANI AIR STRIKES IN AFGHANISTAN
In a recent escalation of cross-border tensions, Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province have resulted in the deaths of 46 individuals, highlighting the ongoing volatility of the region. These strikes, which targeted areas suspected of harbouring militants, have sparked outrage and condemnation, both within Afghanistan and from the international community. The attack underscores the fragile security situation along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and the broader geopolitical tensions between the two countries.
The situation is fraught with complexity, involving not only the two neighbouring states but also international actors such as the United States, China, and the Taliban, which has recently regained control of Afghanistan. The United States, a key player in the War on Terror, has a vested interest in the stability of the region. China also closely monitors the situation with its Belt and Road Initiative and economic investments in the region. The Taliban’s resurgence and its relationship with Pakistan further complicate the geopolitical landscape. Understanding the motivations behind these air strikes, the implications for regional security, and the broader geopolitical consequences is essential for assessing the future of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations and the overall stability of the South Asian region.
Historical Context of Afghan-Pakistani Tensions.
The history of Afghan-Pakistani relations, deeply rooted in the colonial past, has been marked by frequent tension, often arising from political, territorial, and security concerns. The division of Afghanistan and Pakistan following the partition of British India in 1947 created lasting complications, particularly concerning the Durand Line, the controversial border that separates the two nations. Afghanistan was the only country that initially refused to recognise this border, leading to disputes that have lingered ever since. These disputes have significantly shaped the region’s geopolitical dynamics and continue influencing contemporary events.
In recent decades, the issue of militancy and cross-border insurgency has exacerbated tensions. Pakistan has been accused of using its territory as a haven for Afghan militants, particularly during the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989), when Pakistan supported Afghan mujahideen factions in their fight against Soviet forces. This support led to the rise of groups such as the Taliban, which took control of Afghanistan in the 1990s and provided a safe haven for terrorist organisations, including al-Qaeda.
The post-9/11 era marked a shift in the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. After the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Pakistan became a crucial ally in the War on Terror. Still, at the same time, it continued to support certain militant groups as part of its strategy to counter Indian influence in Afghanistan. This double-dealing led to accusations that Pakistan is playing a double game, supporting insurgent groups while pretending to be a partner in counterterrorism efforts.
Boomerang Effect. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) supported the formation of the Taliban in the 1990s, seeing them as a potential ally to ensure a friendly government in Afghanistan, which would provide Pakistan with strategic depth against India. While the Taliban still maintains some ties with Pakistan, there have been periods of tension. Taliban-linked groups, such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), have turned against the Pakistani state, conducting attacks within Pakistan. The TTP aims to overthrow the Pakistani government and establish a stricter interpretation of Islamic law, which has led to significant violence and conflict within Pakistan itself.
The Geography and Strategic Importance of Paktika Province
Paktika is one of Afghanistan’s eastern provinces, bordering Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. This region has been a hotspot for insurgent activity for years, with various militant groups, including the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP), using the rugged terrain to hide from Afghan and Pakistani forces. The province is strategically important due to its proximity to the Durand Line, making it an ideal location for militants to cross between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The geography of Paktika also makes it difficult for both the Afghan government and Pakistan to secure the region. The mountainous and forested landscape provides natural cover for insurgents, while the porous border allows for the easy movement of fighters and weapons between the two countries. Over the years, various militant groups have exploited these conditions to launch attacks across the border.
Pakistani Narrative and Possible Reasons.
Pakistan’s air strikes in Afghanistan, particularly in Paktika, are typically framed as responses to cross-border attacks by militants. These strikes are part of Pakistan’s broader counterterrorism strategy, aimed at dismantling militant groups operating in the border region. Pakistan has long accused Afghanistan of harbouring insurgents who use Afghan soil to launch attacks on Pakistani targets, particularly in the tribal areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. In response, Pakistan has argued that it has the right to conduct air strikes and military operations on Afghan territory to safeguard its national security.
Cross-Border Militancy. The presence of Pakistan-based militant groups in Afghanistan, especially the TTP, is one of the primary reasons for these air strikes. The TTP has been involved in numerous attacks on Pakistani military and civilian targets, leading Pakistan to launch retaliatory strikes against their hideouts in Paktika and other Afghan provinces. These groups are often blamed for destabilising the region, and Pakistan’s military views these air strikes as a necessary measure to contain the threat.
Out of Control Region. Afghanistan’s inability to fully control its territory, particularly in the eastern and southern regions, has been a significant factor in the escalation of violence. The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal in 2021 has further exacerbated the situation. Pakistan perceives the Afghan as incapable of effectively dealing with the cross-border insurgency, legitimising unilateral military action.
Pakistan’s Desire for Regional Influence. Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies have long had a strategic interest in maintaining influence over Afghanistan. By launching air strikes, Pakistan aims to retain control over militant groups operating along the border and to prevent any spillover of instability that could undermine its security or its strategic objectives in the region.
Domestic Political Considerations. Pakistan’s military leadership is often under pressure from domestic constituencies, particularly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan regions, to take decisive action against militants. Air strikes in Afghanistan serve as a signal to domestic audiences that Pakistan is committed to protecting its sovereignty and securing its borders while also sending a message to Afghanistan and the international community about Pakistan’s resolve to fight terrorism.
Impact on Afghanistan and Regional Stability
Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan, especially in Paktika, have had significant implications for both Afghan civilians and the broader regional stability. The loss of civilian lives and the disruption of daily life in the region due to these strikes cannot be overstated.
Civilian Casualties and Displacement. One of the most immediate consequences of air strikes is the toll on Afghan civilians. These strikes, while aimed at militant targets, often result in civilian casualties and the displacement of local populations. This exacerbates the already dire humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, which is dealing with the aftermath of decades of war, economic collapse, and the resurgence of the Taliban.
Sovereignty Concerns. Afghanistan has repeatedly protested Pakistani air strikes, viewing them as violations of its sovereignty. Afghanistan’s government (under both the previous Western-backed administration and the current Taliban regime) has argued that such strikes undermine the principle of territorial integrity and violate international law. The strikes further strain Afghanistan-Pakistan relations, which are already fraught with mistrust and historical grievances.
Taliban’s Response. The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 has added a new dimension to the conflict. While the Taliban has historically maintained close ties with Pakistan, its control over Afghan territory has not led to a reduction in cross-border militancy. The Taliban’s reluctance or inability to clamp down on Pakistani militants operating from Afghan soil has prompted Pakistan to continue its air strikes. However, this has created a delicate situation where the Taliban must balance its relationship with Pakistan while dealing with growing public discontent over the air strikes.
Regional Security and Geopolitical Dynamics. The air strikes also have broader regional implications. Pakistan’s actions are viewed with concern by India, which has long been wary of Pakistan’s influence over Afghanistan and the destabilising effect of cross-border militancy. India has consistently accused Pakistan of using Afghan-based militant groups to advance its strategic interests in the region. Furthermore, the involvement of external actors such as the United States, which has interests in Afghanistan and is concerned about Pakistan’s role in the area, complicates the situation. These air strikes may lead to greater instability in an already volatile region, affecting the prospects for peace and development in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Conclusion. Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province represent a complex and multifaceted issue in South Asian geopolitics. These strikes are driven by security concerns, political motivations, and strategic interests, with significant implications for Afghanistan’s sovereignty, civilian population, and regional stability. While Pakistan justifies its actions as a necessary response to cross-border militancy, the long-term consequences of these strikes may not only strain Afghanistan-Pakistan relations further but also exacerbate the instability in the broader region.
BBC News. “Pakistan Air Strikes in Afghanistan Kill 46: A Critical Overview.” BBC, December 2023.
Al Jazeera. “Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Border Tensions: An Analysis of the 2023 Air Strikes.” Al Jazeera, December 2023.
Mansoor, Safdar. “The Durand Line: A Historical Perspective on Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations.” Asian Affairs, vol. 38, no. 3, 2007, pp. 405-421.
Johnson, Thomas H., and M. Chris Mason. “The Taliban’s War with Pakistan: A Strategic Overview.” Middle East Policy, vol. 17, no. 4, 2010, pp. 56-70.
Tanner, Stephen. “Pakistan’s Military Strategy and Its Afghan Frontier.” International Security Studies Review, vol. 32, no. 2, 2014, pp. 99-113.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Pakistan’s Afghan Policy: Challenges and Opportunities.” Carnegie Report, 2021.
Gul, Imtiaz. The Most Dangerous Place: Pakistan’s Lawless Frontier. Penguin Books, 2010.
Khan, Mehmood. Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Strategy: A Comprehensive Approach. Palgrave Macmillan, 2016.
United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). “Afghanistan: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict.” UNAMA Annual Report, 2023.
Disclaimer:
Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.
My Article published on The EurasianTimes Website on 22 Dec 24.
Introduction. Bangladesh has been actively pursuing modernising its armed forces. The Chinese J-10C, a fourth-generation-plus multi-role fighter jet boasting advanced avionics, weapon systems, and cost efficiency, has featured on its wish list. This news about the possible acquisition of 16 J-10C aircraft follows Air Chief Marshal Hasan Mahmood Khan’s visit to China last month, during which he expressed Bangladesh’s commitment to acquiring multirole combat aircraft and attack helicopters. The announcement has come at a time of high geopolitical tensions in South Asia, when military acquisitions are closely watched. The move has sparked an exciting debate, with proponents lauding it as a transformative step for Bangladesh’s air force, while critics warn of strategic, financial, and operational pitfalls.
The J-10C: Features and Capabilities. The J-10C, known as the ‘Vigorous Dragon’, is claimed to be a fourth-generation multirole combat aircraft equipped with the Chinese-manufactured WS-10B engine. It has been developed by China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. J-10C represents an evolutionary version of the J-10 series. The J-10C was first unveiled to the Chinese public in July 2017 and has been operational since 2018. It features significant advancements over earlier variants. Reportedly, its key features include:-
The J-10C is equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, which offers enhanced detection, tracking, and targeting capabilities in all weather conditions.
Advanced avionics and integrated electronic warfare systems for jamming enemy radar and countering electronic threats enhance survivability.
The jet can carry various armaments, including the PL-15 beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missile (BVR-AAM), which has a range of over 200 km.
It is capable of both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, the J-10C is well-suited for diverse operational scenarios.
With a delta wing-canard configuration and an optional thrust-vectoring engine, the J-10C claims excellent manoeuvrability and agility in combat.
Bangladesh’s Defence Modernisation Goals. Bangladesh’s military modernisation plan emphasises upgrading its ageing fleet and enhancing its defence capabilities. The Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) currently operates ageing platforms such as the MiG-29 and F-7, which are increasingly difficult to maintain and operate in modern combat scenarios. Acquiring J-10C fighter jets could boost the BAF’s operational readiness and deterrence capabilities.
Challenges and Risks. Bangladesh is China’s second-largest arms buyer after Pakistan, the first country to procure J-10C fighters from China. Despite its apparent advantages, acquiring J-10C jets poses several challenges and risks for Bangladesh. Critics argue that the aircraft relies heavily on older technologies and reverse-engineered components. The aircraft’s performance in simulated combat scenarios, especially against more advanced jets, has not consistently proven superior. Seemingly, the J-10C struggles with issues related to its radar and avionics compared to modern, Western-made jets. The J-10C’s WS-10 engine has faced reliability issues in high-stress environments, raising concerns about its long-term performance, reliability and maintenance. Inconsistency in after-sales service and spare parts availability would be another challenge. These risks underscore the need for a comprehensive analysis before making a decision.
Cost Considerations. The J-10C is often marketed as a cost-effective alternative, but this can be misleading. While cheaper than Western alternatives, it still represents a significant investment for Bangladesh, whose defence budget is relatively limited. Higher maintenance and potentially lower service life could negate initial savings. Chinese loans often accompany these deals, which can lead to long-term economic dependencies. Financing through Chinese loans might deepen Bangladesh’s economic reliance on Beijing, potentially leading to broader strategic vulnerabilities.
India-Bangladesh relations. India-Bangladesh relations have taken a nosedive after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster and an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad’s coming to the helm in Dhaka. Bangladesh has witnessed widespread communal violence against minorities, especially Hindus, which has soured Dhaka’s ties with New Delhi, with the latter accusing the Yunus-led interim government of not doing enough and disregarding the atrocities perpetrated by radical Islamist elements against the minority Hindu community in the country. Furthermore, the emergence of Mohammad Yunus’s government in Bangladesh, with its increasing alignment with China and Pakistan, has added another layer of complexity to India’s diplomatic strategy. Bangladesh’s growing ties with China and Pakistan are potentially destabilising, particularly as China seeks to expand its influence in South Asia. India is now carefully monitoring the situation, wary of Bangladesh becoming a vassal state of Chinese influence.
Indian Concern. China’s growing influence in South Asia is evident in its economic and military partnerships. Amid deteriorating ties with India, Bangladesh increasingly turns to China for military modernisation. Bangladesh’s acquisition of J-10C jets would deepen its defence ties with Beijing, aligning with China’s broader strategy of counterbalancing India’s regional influence. This could shift the balance of power in South Asia, with India’s proximity and strategic interests making it sensitive to military developments in Bangladesh. The strategic location of Bangladesh, sharing borders with India’s sensitive north-eastern states, makes the issue even more pressing. Acquiring Chinese jets and aligning with China complicate Dhaka’s relationship with New Delhi.
Balancing Foreign Policy. The U.S. and Western nations might view Bangladesh’s deepening defence ties with China as a shift away from a balanced foreign policy. This alignment might affect Bangladesh’s ability to balance relationships with other major powers, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The response of these powers to Bangladesh’s alignment with China could impact Bangladesh’s access to Western defence technology and economic support. Closer defence ties with China could affect Bangladesh’s relations with Western nations, limiting future cooperation and technology transfer opportunities.
West or East: A Tight Rope Walk. The likelihood of Bangladesh acquiring Chinese J-10C aircraft, despite having a U.S.-backed government, depends on several factors involving its domestic policies, regional security considerations, and geopolitical strategy. A U.S.-backed government in Bangladesh might face pressure to align its defence purchases with Western allies to strengthen strategic ties. The U.S. could leverage tools like defence cooperation agreements, sanctions under CAATSA or military aid to dissuade purchases from China. On the other hand, Bangladesh has a defence relationship with China and is a major supplier of military hardware. The purchase of the J-10C would align with Bangladesh’s historical reliance on Chinese equipment. Bangladesh has sought to balance its foreign relations by engaging with Western and Eastern powers. While Bangladesh’s defence ties with China make the J-10C a plausible acquisition, a U.S.-backed government might weigh the risks of straining relations with Washington. The decision will hinge on Bangladesh’s ability to navigate the competing pressures from the U.S. and China while prioritising its defence modernisation needs and regional strategic interests.
Conclusion. Bangladesh’s potential acquisition of Chinese J-10C fighter jets represents both an opportunity and a risk. On one hand, the J-10C would significantly enhance the Bangladesh Air Force’s capabilities, improving its deterrence and operational flexibility. On the other hand, the move comes with substantial financial, operational, and geopolitical challenges that could outweigh the benefits if not carefully managed. The decision also carries significant implications for Bangladesh’s strategic autonomy. Before finalising the deal, Bangladesh must rigorously evaluate whether the J-10C’s benefits outweigh its risks, particularly regarding long-term reliability and strategic autonomy. This careful evaluation is crucial to ensure that the J-10C acquisition is a transformative step forward rather than a strategic misstep for Bangladesh.
Ahmad, N., & Rahman, A. “China’s Military Expansion in South Asia: Implications for Bangladesh.” South Asian Security Review, vol. 12, no. 3, 2023, pp. 45-63.
Beijing Insight. “Bangladesh’s Potential Purchase of Chinese J-10C Jets: Analysing Strategic Choices.” The Diplomat, 15 December 2023.
Chowdhury, A. “J-10C Jets for Bangladesh: Boosting Capabilities or a Risky Gamble?” Strategic Studies Quarterly, vol. 9, no. 2, 2024, pp. 72-89.
Farhana, S. “Bangladesh’s Defense Modernisation: The Role of Chinese Military Hardware.” Journal of South Asian Defense Studies, vol. 18, no. 4, 2023, pp. 97-116.
Global Security Review. “The Chinese J-10C Jet Deal with Bangladesh: Strategic Implications for Regional Power Dynamics.” Global Security Review, 20 November 2023.
Jian, X. “China’s Military Strategy in South Asia: The Case of Bangladesh’s J-10C Fighter Jets.” Asia-Pacific Security, vol. 7, no. 1, 2023, pp. 58-75.
“The Strategic Consequences of Bangladesh Acquiring Chinese Fighter Jets.” South Asian Voices, 10 December 2023.
Disclaimer:
Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.
