Month: September 2021

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Taliban’s Runover: Some Factors

 

Setting and Population Density Pattern. 

  • Afghanistan’s overall population density is only about 148 people per square mile / 57 people per square kilometer (Indian population density is 1202 per square mile / 464 per square kilometer).

 

  • Even in the populated areas of Afghanistan, people are quite spread out, with only 26 percent of the population living in urban centres. This dispersed population pattern, is a challenge for the state army to defend while, it favours the Taliban’s quick-moving offensive.

 

Taliban Strategy.

  • Following the withdrawal of Western forces, the Taliban swiftly and easily occupied vast swaths of sparsely populated territory. They then used that territory to launch coordinated and fast-moving offensives.

 

  • Instead of traditional tools of warfare (like artillery and armour), the Taliban moved quickly in weaponised pickup trucks to defeat dug-in defensive They forced The Afghan forces to retreat from outposts and checkpoints to (safety of) urban areas, thereby ceding control of supply lines and major highways. This allowed Taliban forces to surround and isolate urban centers.

 

  • Local officials were quick to accept Taliban control because they had little allegiance to the central government and knew that Afghan forces were unwilling (and unable) to defend their areas from Taliban

 

Taliban Advantages.

  • Taliban enjoyed a presence throughout the country, allowing them to pressure the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in multiple locations.

 

  • The Taliban were able to conduct lightning offensives across many fronts, which fatally stressed the limited cohesion of the Afghan National Defense and Security.

 

Afghan Security Force: Challenges

  • Low force-to-space ratios meant that defenders had significant ground to cover and had to move swiftly and in a coordinated fashion to stand any chance of successfully countering Taliban threats from many The Afghan security forces were not geared up to these tasks.

 

  • The Afghan military lacked the capacity and cohesion required to stand firm and defend against fast-moving offensives across many fronts.

 

  • Afghan forces had always been heavily dependent on S. air support for troop movement, re-supply, and combat operations. In absence of the air support, the Afghan military was unable to regroup or move units around quickly.

 

  • Afghan forces were hampered by lack of cohesion, leadership, motivation, and limited training & mobility.

 

Outcome.

  • The weaknesses of the Afghan security forces, combined with the low force-to-space ratios generated by Afghanistan’s terrain and its population distribution, made a quick Taliban victory a reality.

 

  • Taliban rarely had to use force because they could leverage their geographic reach to intimidate local leaders and convince defenders to flee or surrender.

 

Lessons

  • Understanding Local conditions is Important.

 

  • One solution does not work for every problem.

 

  • Psychological (Mind) factor of any armed is important.

 

  • Besides Equipment and training, motivation and leadership is equally important.

 

There is much more to it – More coming up

 

Questions

Has the western world really understood Afghanistan?

Is the fight against terrorism being orchestrated correctly?

 

Titbit

Afghanistan is called graveyard of empires.

Britishers came and failed

Russians tried and failed.

Yanks tried for long and failed.

 

Random Thoughts

Now it is Chinese turn

(Chinese are too smart to burn their hands – they will let Pakistan do Their dirty work)

Pakistan is playing with a two edged sword.

will the nurtured snake bite back

 

Suggestions and Value additions are most welcome

 

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References

https://warontherocks.com/

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/afghanistan-taliban-uk-war-troops-b1902270.html

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-17/why-taliban-won

https://cissm.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/worst-case-scenario-assessing-impact-complete-isaf-military-withdrawal

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-army-collapse-taliban-11628958253

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-taliban-advances-afghan-military-overhauls-war-strategy-limit-losses-2021-07-22/

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-pug

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Leadership Lessons from Hollywood War Movies: Black Hawk Down

Films have a huge impact on the human mind. Films can communicate, embody and articulate the effectiveness of behaviours of leadership.

Hollywood has a variety of award-winning films that portray the heroism and sacrifices   of different military leaders in battlefield.

 

Black Hawk Down

Film. Black Hawk Down released in 2001 based on a true fact from Somalia. This film was produced and directed by Ridley Scott from a screenplay by Ken Nolan. This movie was based on the 1999 non-fiction book Black Hawk Down by journalist Mark Bowden.

Film Setting. In 1993, the US military operated a raid in Mogadishu to capture faction leader Mohamed Farrah Aidid. The ensuing firefight was known as the Battle of Mogadishu. In January 1991, Somalian President Mohammed Siad Barre was overthrown by a coalition of opposing clans, precipitating the Somali Civil War. In this civil war, around three hundred thousand (300,000) people were killed. Therefore, this civil war turned to genocide and the united nation had to intervene for the peacekeeping.

Film Plot. In 1992, U.S. forces had arrived in Somalia on a humanitarian mission to provide the food access to starving people in a city where different militia groups controlled basic resources. Initially, Task Force Ranger and U.S. Joint Special Operations force was a collaborated with other elite forces units from Army Special Operations Command, Air Force Special Operations Command, and Navy Special Warfare Command. Fifth Ranger Regiment and Delta Force was sharing the major members of this operation. Members from the seventh Task Force Ranger was dispatched to seize two of Aidid’s high-echelon lieutenants during a meeting in the city. The goal of the operation was achieved, though conditions spiraled into the deadly Battle of Mogadishu. The initial operation on October 3, 1993, intended to last an hour, became an overnight standoff and rescue operation extending into the daylight hours of October 4th. In this operation, 19 US soldiers sacrificed their lives and more than 1000 Somalian militia and civilian were killed.

Leadership Qualities

Black Hawk Down movie, is one of the best examples of leadership during crisis. It also brings out elements of situational leadership and ethical leadership. In the movie Major General William Garrison is portrayed as an authoritative but caring leader. Overall it is a story of many heroes. The major leadership lessons from this movie as follows:

  • Lead by example and be willing to carry the burden of leadership.
  • Be reliable and dependable, a leader that can be counted on.
  • It is critical for leaders to understand Maslow’s Hierarchy of needs

Recommendation

This film is recommended to be watched by the young military leaders.

Titbits

Black Hawk Down won two Academy Awards for Best Film Editing and Best Sound Mixing at the 74th Academy Awards (wikipedia.org, oscars.org). This movie has a strong foundation of political dilemma and social justice issue.

 

Value Additions are most welcome

 

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References

Harvard Business School. (2003, April 21). “Black Hawk Down”: Leading in Crisis. Retrieved on September 10, 2018 from https://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/black-hawk-down-leading-in- crisis.

Kirkpatrick, T. (2017, May 18). 8 awesome enlisted leaders depicted in war movies. https://www.wearethemighty.com/articles/8-awesome- enlisted-leaders-depicted-in-war-movies.

Guthrie, K. L., & Jenkins, D. M. (2018). The role of leadership educators: Transforming learning. Charlotte, NC: Information Age Publishing.

 Rajendran, D., & Andrew, M. (2014). Using film to elucidate leadership effectiveness models: Reflection on authentic learning experiences. Journal of University Teaching & Learning Practice, 11(1), 8.

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Knowing China Better:  Chinese Social Score System

 

China’s social credit system isn’t a world first but  it is unique.

Pic courtesy:https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/aam/Asia-Book_A_03_China_Social_Credit_System.pdf

The Social Credit System is part of Xi Jinping’s vision for data-driven governance. 

 

The goal of the China social credit system is to provide a holistic assessment of an individual or a company’s trustworthiness.

 

The China social credit system, is an extension of existing social rankings and ratings in China which have existed for millennia.

 

The Social Score is a system that collects all kinds of data about citizens and companies, sorts, analyses, evaluates, interprets and implements actions based on it.

 

In concrete terms, this means that if you wait at a red light, you get plus points. If you pay your taxes and bills on time, you get plus points. If you are socially involved and accept the rules, you also get plus points.

 

If you have a good Social Score, you get unsolicited benefits for your social behaviour. These include, for example, faster visa application processing and more freedom to travel. When dating online, algorithms higher prioritize the own profile. Banks offer lower interest rates for company loans or private real estate purchases. People with a high Social Score are promoted faster and get better job offers.

 

However, people who go red, cut off someone while driving, spit on the street or stick their chewing gum under their seat get minus points.

 

Anyone who criticizes the state in social media or pays their bills too late also receives minus points.

 

The consequences of a poor social credit score could be serious. It may affect travel prospects, employment, access to finance, and the ability to enter into contracts. On the other hand, a positive credit score could make a range of business transactions for individuals and corporations much easier.

 

It is essential that any foreign business consolidating or establishing their presence in China seek professional advice for managing a social credit score. This applies both to individual scores, and the corporate social credit score. 

 

Machine (AI) based Implementation

Every country has laws, cultural norms, social morals and social agreements. The police, courts, politicians, administrations, media and citizens are involved in a constant dialogue; it determines what we define as right or wrong.

 

In China, this task has partly been taken over by Artificial Intelligence based machine i.e. controlling and managing the society – with machines instead of people. The machine decides on correct and incorrect behaviour.

 

Inputs are obtained from:

  • Financial Data
  • Digital Data (Internet websites, apps, videos and pictures visited/browsed)
  • Mobile Data (Calls and messages)
  • Health Data

 

The data is used to make individual profiles (Behaviour, movement and content).

 

Based on the profile credit scores are allotted and reviewed.

 

Based on the credit score the privileges are granted or curbed.

 

Ethical Issues

This system raises a lot of ethical questions related to freedom and privacy.

 

  • Who monitors the score, who imports the data and who configures the system?

 

  • How ethical and moral aspects (if any) are integrated?

 

 

  • Who monitors the system to prevent manipulation, and abuse of power?

 

  • What data is collected? Who has access to it?

 

 

  • How is the privacy of citizens and companies ensured?

 

  • Are only Chinese citizens monitored or all people on Chinese territory?

 

 

  • Does the government also collect data on Chinese people abroad?

 

End piece

Collecting data and setting up administrative systems to ensure protection, freedom and security for all concerned is a legitimate tool for states. However, as surveillance increases, privacy must be respected as long as the welfare of society is not affected.

 

Titbits

In China everyone’s movements are monitored continuously. In the AI based monitoring system besides face recognition, even gait recognition has been introduced to make it more fool proof.

 

 

Question

Do you approve of such a system?

 

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References

 https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-social-credit-system-explained

 https://merics.org/en/report/chinas-social-credit-system-2021-fragmentation-towards-integration

 https://nhglobalpartners.com/china-social-credit-system-explained/

 https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/aam/Asia-Book_A_03_China_Social_Credit_System.pdf