Dragon Antics: Change of Heart or Change of Approach

 

Since 2002, the CPC Politburo has been convening monthly group study sessions conducted by professors and researchers. Speakers lecture on domestic affairs and share experiences from developed countries. Priority is given to economic issues, followed by political / ideological and social issues, and lastly, military issues and international relations.

 

In his recent speech at the 30th collective study session of the politburo, Xi instructed the country’s leaders to focus on a “trustworthy, lovable and respectable” image for China. He went on to suggest that the country should adopt a “humble” approach in relations with the outside world (“We should make friends, unite and win the majority, and continuously expand the circle of international public opinion friends who know China and are friendly to China”). Most of Xi’s remarks focused on redoubling Beijing’s efforts to create a more positive image of the Communist Party overseas by using social media, electronic media and other means.

 

There were swift reactions worldwide to the statement. Some wondered whether it was the end of China’s sharp-edged Wolf Warrior diplomacy. Others were cautious and hopeful that it could lead to real change. Essence of some of the reactions from various China watchers are as follows:

 

  • What Xi says cannot and should not be trusted. His regime is committing genocide and violating human rights, skirting responsibility for the global pandemic that killed thousands around the world, and building a military and threatening the world.

 

  • Xi’s comments don’t really change anything. It is just a change in approach, unless the words are put to action.

 

  • Maybe the change in tone is to avoid boycott of Olympics. The call for boycott of Olympics in China are increasing world over.

 

  • Xi’s speech is a slight turn and not a fundamental reorientation because the emphasis is still on promoting a positive image of China overseas. The news release of the event indicates that the speech meant to convey that “China should assert its views but do so in a more artful manner. Do not have to go all-out like a Wolf Warrior all of the time and can take a step back sometimes.”

 

  • One of the view is that Xi is serious about the change in approach, and he has urged everyone to “develop a voice in international discourse that matches with China’s comprehensive national strength and international status, presenting a true, multi-dimensional and panoramic view of the country.”

 

  • The reactions in US are divided with one school of thought suggesting that the China policy of US should not change, while the other suggesting that US should also tone down.

 

 

My Take

 

  • China cannot be trusted.
  • China is known for deceit and betrayal, changing its stance frequently.
  • This is just a change in approach and not its policies.
  • The change in tone is because of realisation that it has made too many enemies.
  • The change is to avoid damage to its economic growth (in turn growth in military power).
  • The change is in tune with its policy of two steps forward and one back.
  • The aggressive approach and belligerent behaviour would return again once it attains more power.

 

Titbits

 

Term Wolf Warrior diplomacy was inspired by China’s popular Rambo-like movies, “Wolf Warrior” and “Wolf Warrior II.”  The label has come to signify the tough, sharp-edged tone of many Chinese diplomats.

 

Value additions and comments are most welcome.

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References:

  1. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2021/06/03/xi-defangs-the-wolf-warrior-493098?nname=politico-china-watcher&nid=00000172-18aa-d57a-ad7b-5eafdd2b0000&nrid=3c46f8a6-d8dc-4af2-9727-6a8433d3e038&nlid=2674343
  2. https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/iaps/documents/cpi/briefings/briefing-27-collective-study-sessions-of-the-politburo.pdf
  3. http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0204/c98649-9014098.html
  4. 4. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2021/06/03/xi-defangs-the-wolf-warrior-493098

Best of William Roger: Humorous Yet Deep Meaning

William Penn Adair Rogers was an American stage and film actor, cowboy, humourist, newspaper columnist, and social commentator. He was the most sought after live entertainer and had a way with words. His quotes reflect humour and philosophy on life which is relevant even today.

 

Out of hundreds of his quotes, the best ones which I like are below:

 

 

“There are two theories to arguing with a woman. Neither works.”

 

 

“The quickest way to double your money is to fold it and put it back into your pocket.”

 

 

“Never miss a good chance to shut up.”

 

 

“There are three kinds of men: The ones that learn by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence and find out for themselves.”

 

 

“Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.”

 

 

“Letting the cat outta the bag is a whole lot easier than putting it back.”

 

 

“Don’t let yesterday take up too much of today”

 

 

“Golf is good for the soul. You get so mad at yourself you forget to hate your enemies.”

 

 

“Diplomacy is the art of saying ‘Nice doggie’ until you can find a rock.”

 

 

“If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.”

 

 

“Never slap a man who’s chewing tobacco.”

 

 

“If you’re riding ahead of the herd, take a look back every now and then to make sure it’s still there.”

 

 

“After eating an entire bull, a mountain lion felt so good he started roaring. He kept it up until a hunter came along and shot him. The moral: When you’re full of bull, keep your mouth shut.”

 

 

“Too many people spend money they haven’t earned, to buy things they don’t want, to impress people that they don’t like.”

 

 

“Everything is funny as long as it is happening to somebody else.”

 

 

“Make crime pay. Become a lawyer.”

 

 

“The health of nations is more important than the wealth of nations.”

 

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South China Sea: Solving the Dispute

 

Reading this article along with the previous two on the same subject provide a more comprehensive picture.

  1. SCS: Importance and Disputes.
  2. SCS: Aspects related to SCS Dispute.

 

 

Solving the Disputes

 

Considering the complicated nature of the SCS dispute, finding a solution is easier said than done.

 

Even the leaders from the claimant states and subject experts have differing opinions about its resolution. Some of these opinions are as follows:

 

  • Manage the dispute and keep the claimants engaged in negotiations. Keep on talking and engaging each other at different levels through bilateral and multilateral forums.

 

  • Follow the law of the sea and honour the International laws. Take legal recourse or a third party intervention.

 

  • Follow collective effort through ASEAN to manage the dispute and to prevent major conflicts.

 

  • Show restraint in order not to provoke one another, either through statements or actions, stop reclamation activities and militarization of the features in the SCS.

 

  • Maintain the status quo and wait for a good time to deal with the issue.

 

  • Cooperate on the non-contentious soft areas in order to build confidence and trust, such as marine environment protection, search and rescue, safety of navigation, and combating transnational crimes. Later on, other contentious issues could be dealt with.

 

  • Resort to joint explorations and sharing of resources like oil and gas.

 

Suggested Approach

 

The answer lies in the claimants abandoning their confrontational attitude and agreeing to find some common ground, even at the cost of sacrificing certain portions of their claims.

 

One possible approach to the peaceful solution could be for all claimants to limit their claim to the areas of 200 nautical miles of the EEZ and continental shelf in accordance with the UNCLOS, leaving international waters for free navigation and overt flight.

 

Another approach could be the parties concerned to establish a common ownership of the disputed areas, whereby all the revenues from the SCS are equitably or proportionately shared among the littoral states.

 

In SCS dispute, China is the key player and future of the dispute depends on the China’s attitude and actions in future.

 

India and the SCS

India is a vital player and has interests in the SCS as a major portion of its trade passes through the region. India’s interests also include the energy contracts that its public sector giant Oil and Natural Gas Commission’s Videshi Limited (OVL) had acquired through legal and global norms in the South China Sea.

India has, on several occasions, called upon all parties to avoid unilateral action that leads to tensions in the region and called for peaceful resolution of disputes without the threat of use of force.

India must continue to actively pursue its defense diplomacy outreach in the Indo-Pacific region including military training and  exercises and exchanges, extend Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief activities and share patrolling of the Malacca Strait with the littoral countries, etc.

 

Comments and value additions are most welcome

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References:

  1. https://scroll.in/article/968918/how-did-the-south-china-sea-dispute-begin-and-where-is-it-headed
  2. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53397673
  3. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/issues/south-china-sea
  4. https://www.peacepalacelibrary.nl/library-special/south-china-sea-territorial-disputes/
  5. https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-updates/daily-news-analysis/south-china-sea-dispute
  6. https://www.straight.com/news/khalid-zaka-a-summary-of-south-china-sea-conflict
  7. The Politics of South China Sea Disputes, book by Nehginpao Kipgen