May, 2021 - Air Marshal's Perspective

May 25, 2021September 27, 2021

Q & A Series: Catch 22 Situation of US – Pak relations

Pic Courtesy: Express Tribune

Question. In the comments section of one of the earlier posts, Air Cmde R Marwaha (Retd) had raised a very pertinent question as to why does US continue to engage and support Pakistan?

Catch 22. The question is curiously intriguing because United States rewards Pakistan for the very behaviour it seeks to curb i.e. terrorism under nuclear umbrella.

Three Main Reasons. Pakistan – US relations like any other engagement are governed by geopolitics realities and compulsions. In the recent years, contours of these relations have derived largely from US’s China and India policies, the Afghanistan war and her national security concerns related to international terrorism.

Factors. Various factors affecting the relations between the two countries are enumerated below in brief (each one is a topic of debate in itself). The changes in Pakistan – US relationship policy have been and in future would be governed by these factors in isolation or collectively.

Pak Demography. Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world. By 2050 it is estimated that it will become the biggest Muslim nation (ahead of Indonesia) and the fourth most populous country in the world after India, China and the United States.

Pak’s Important Location. Pakistan lies in this unique geographic location, with a stake in the Western, Persian, Central Asian and South Asian dynamics. Pakistan is a strategically important country as it provides access to Central Asia, West Asia and South Asia – three of the most critical regions for world peace. It borders Afghanistan (where US fights its longest ever battle), Iran (which could be the theatre of a future US war), China (America’s biggest challenge) and India (one of the country US needs to contain China). Its strategic location at the crossroads of South Asia and Central Asia, makes it a pivotal player in a region with significant economic potential, particularly in the exploitation and transportation of oil and gas.

Terrorism. Pakistan has a pivotal role to play in the ‘War on Terror’ and is critical for the international effort to counter global and regional terrorist groups.

Afghanistan. Pakistan is a critical player in US effort to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s location next to Afghanistan and historical involvement in that country make it a critical player in efforts to stabilise the country and to ensure that it does not return to being an operating base for extremists.

Nuclear Aspect. Besides the ‘War on Terror’ and the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan is important given its possession of nuclear weapons. Pakistan is one of the most troubled nations, widely viewed as “too dangerous to fail” because of the toxic mix of the terrorist proxies it nurtures under its ever-expanding nuclear umbrella. The risk of Pakistan falling apart along with its nuclear weapons is a far scarier prospect for the world. US engagement with Pakistan allows US to have some say in this direction.

Energy Security. Pakistan is essential for America’s energy security. Given its proximity to two of the world’s major oil reserves – Central and West Asia.

China. US cannot leave Pakistan entirely dependent on and strategically useful only to China.

Realpolitik Game. Supporting Pakistan, keeps US alignments open in South Asia. It also gives them some leverage over India.

Comments and Value additions are most welcome.

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References:

May 24, 2021September 27, 2021

India & Quad: Effect on Indo – Russian Relations

Pic Courtesy: World Map Poster

The Quad, officially the ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’, is a strategic forum between the four nations (US, India, Australia and Japan) for exchanging strategic intelligence and conducting joint military exercises. Officially, the grouping was conceived as a space to cooperate for safeguarding joint security and other interests in the Indo-Pacific region. So far, Quad meetings have semi-regularly happened only at the foreign ministers’ level.

There is much more to Quad but this article is about effect of Quad on Indo – Russia relations.

Russian View. Russia views India’s ties with Quad unfavourably. It considers the Quad to be a US led grouping hostile to the interests of Russia and China. It feels that India is getting into the “trap” of the Indo-Pacific. Being US led grouping it feels that Quad would have an anti-Russia charter in some form or the other. Russia also shares it fears with China that the Quad may turn into a military alliance in future, calling it a potential Asian NATO. Their combined stand is that military alliances of any form in Asia is inadvisable and counterproductive. Russia along with China is very vocal about it and they keep cautioning / threatening India not to covertly or overtly get involved in it.

Indian Compulsions. There is a global rebalancing of geopolitical alliances taking place. The rapid progress made by China in economic, technological and military fields, its belligerent attitude and aggressive policy towards its neighbours and India in particular is resetting the relationships among the major powers. India has no choice but to seek closer ties with likeminded countries to address its asymmetry and security challenges with China and Pakistan. My personal view is that India should keep an open mind even for a military alliance if need so arises in future.

Pic Courtesy: The Asian Age

Maintaining Balance. While maintaining a balance between Indo – Russian and Indo – US relations, Indian Compulsions and views need to be conveyed forcefully that association with Quad is a necessity pushed due to Chinese attitude and behaviour. The policy is not aimed against Russia in any way and is open to all including even Russia. While doing so Russia also needs to be reminded about its increased friendship and enhanced relationship with Pakistan and China.

This article when read with the previous two articles, provides more comprehensive picture of Indo – Russian relations

लाल टोपी रुसी – दिल हिन्दुस्तानी: Indo – Russian Relations

INDO-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: US-Pak-China Factors

Comments and value additions are most welcome

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References:

https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/rise-fall-rebirth-quad/
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/explained-what-is-quad-summit-meeting-narendra-modi-joe-biden-india-us-australia-japan-6637191.html
https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-quad-what-it-is-and-what-it-is-not/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue

May 23, 2021September 27, 2021

SHIQURDU 12: रिश्ते

Shiqurdu is a collection of thoughts. Although an odd sounding name, but felt appropriate for the collection.

These are simplified quotes in Hurdu (Hurdu being a mix of Hindi and Urdu akin to Hinglish i.e., hindi and english). Although in some cases the language has been simplified but attempt has been made to retain the thought and the poetic flavor.

These thoughts have been picked up from various publications. Credit goes to all the original writers who penned down these deep meaning messages.

न किस्सों में, और न किस्तों में,

जिंदगी की खूबसूरती है

चंद सच्चे रिश्तों में

खूबसूरत सा एक पल किस्सा बन जाता है

जाने कब कौन जिदगी का हिस्सा बन जाता है

कुछ लोग जिदगी में मिलते है ऐसे

जिनसे कभी ना टूटनेवाला

रिश्ता बन जाता है

कुछ रिश्ते किराए के मकान जैसे होते हैं

कितना भी सजा लो कभी अपने नहीं होते

एक अजीब सा रिश्ता है मेरे और ख्वाहिशों के दरमियाँ।।

वो मुझे जीने नही देती और मैं उन्हें मरने नही देता।।।

रिश्ते निभाएँ किस तरह

समझ में नहीं आता…

किसी से दिल नहीं मिलता

तो कोई दिल से नहीं मिलता…

आहिस्ता चल ए ज़िन्दगी,

रफ्तार में तेरे चलने से

कुछ रिश्ते बनके टूट गए, कुछ जुड़ते जुड़ते छूट गए;
उन टूटे-छूटे रिश्तों के ज़ख्मों को मिटाना बाकी है ;

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