{"id":7470,"date":"2024-06-27T16:12:09","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T10:42:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=7470"},"modified":"2025-01-04T14:34:04","modified_gmt":"2025-01-04T09:04:04","slug":"nuclear-trends-threats-and-challenges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2024\/06\/27\/nuclear-trends-threats-and-challenges\/","title":{"rendered":"490: NUCLEAR TRENDS, THREATS AND CHALLENGES"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its highly anticipated 55th edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2024 on 17 June 24. This comprehensive yearbook, a cornerstone in the field, presents the institute’s annual evaluation of the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security, with a specific focus on nuclear threats and challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Key findings of the SIPRI Yearbook 2024 are that the number and types of nuclear weapons in development have increased as states deepen their reliance on nuclear deterrence.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Relevant Excerpts<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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The nine nuclear-armed states are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People\u2019s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Israel. The nuclear countries continued modernising their nuclear arsenals, and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,121 warheads in January 2024, about 9585 are in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 3904 of those warheads are deployed with missiles and aircraft; the rest are in central storage. Around 2100 deployed warheads are kept in a high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the USA, but for the first time, China is believed to have some warheads on high operational alert.<\/span><\/p>\n

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While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably, there is a year-on-year increase in the number of operational nuclear warheads.<\/span><\/p>\n

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India, Pakistan, and North Korea are all pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, something Russia, France, the UK, the USA and\u2014more recently\u2014China already have.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Russia and the USA together possess almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons. The sizes of their respective military stockpiles (i.e., useable warheads) seem to have remained relatively stable in 2023. In addition to their military stockpiles, Russia and the USA each hold more than 1200 warheads previously retired from military service, which they are gradually dismantling.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Russia<\/u>. Russia is estimated to have deployed around 36 more warheads with operational forces than in January 2023. Transparency regarding nuclear forces has declined, and debates around nuclear-sharing arrangements have increased in saliency. Notably, there were several public claims made in 2023 that Russia had deployed nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. However, there is no conclusive visual evidence that the actual deployment of warheads has taken place.<\/span><\/p>\n

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China<\/u>. SIPRI\u2019s estimate of the size of China\u2019s nuclear arsenal increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, and it is expected to keep growing. For the first time, China may also now be deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime. Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade. However, its stockpile of nuclear warheads is still expected to remain much smaller than the stockpiles of either of those two countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

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United Kingdom<\/u>. Although the UK is not thought to have increased its nuclear weapon arsenal in 2023, its warhead stockpile is expected to grow in the future due to the British government\u2019s announcement in 2021 that it was raising its limit from 225 to 260 warheads. The government also said it would no longer publicly disclose its quantities of nuclear weapons, deployed warheads or deployed missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n

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France<\/u>. In 2023, France continued its programmes to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile and refurbish and upgrade existing systems.<\/span><\/p>\n

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India<\/u>. In 2023, India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal and continued developing new nuclear delivery systems. India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets throughout China.<\/span><\/p>\n

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North Korea<\/u>. North Korea continues to prioritise its military nuclear programme as a central element of its national security strategy. SIPRI estimates that the country has now assembled around 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 warheads, both significant increases over the estimates for January 2023. While North Korea conducted no nuclear test explosions in 2023, it appears to have carried out its first test of a short-range ballistic missile from a rudimentary silo. It also completed the development of at least two types of land-attack cruise missiles (LACM) designed to deliver nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Israel<\/u>. Israel does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons. It seems to be modernising its nuclear arsenal and upgrading its plutonium production reactor site at Dimona.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Global Security and Stability in Peril<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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The impacts of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are visible in almost every aspect of the issues connected to nuclear, armaments, disarmament and international security.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Increasing Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence.<\/u> Russia has continued to make threats regarding the use of nuclear weapons in the context of Western support for Ukraine. In May 2024, Russia carried out tactical nuclear weapon drills close to the Ukrainian border.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Setback to Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament.<\/u> Nuclear diplomacy suffered more significant setbacks in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

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