{"id":6477,"date":"2023-10-07T21:44:18","date_gmt":"2023-10-07T16:14:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=6477"},"modified":"2025-01-04T14:32:14","modified_gmt":"2025-01-04T09:02:14","slug":"israel-conflict-speculations-news-vis-a-vis-analysis-views","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2023\/10\/07\/israel-conflict-speculations-news-vis-a-vis-analysis-views\/","title":{"rendered":"393: ISRAEL CONFLICT: SPECULATIONS &#038; NEWS Vis-\u00e0-vis ANALYSIS &#038; VIEWS"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\"><strong><u>(In random order)<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Speculation<\/u>: It is a failure of Israeli intelligence.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Have they intentionally allowed it to happen?<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">To gain legitimacy to crush HAMAS.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">Reunite Israelis, as fault lines had started appearing in Israel (Since January 2023, large-scale protests have been taking place across\u00a0Israel\u00a0in response to the government&#8217;s push for a\u00a0wide-ranging judicial overhaul).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Doesn&#8217;t seem to be true as the human cost is too high.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>News:<\/u> A barrage of rockets (more than 2,000 rockets) slammed into southern and central Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># All operations start with LR Vectors to create disruption, destruction, and chaos, followed by attack of surface forces.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>News<\/u>: Infiltration initially was through tunnels, powered hang gliders, followed by a land route after the demolition of the fence. Even infiltration was attempted from the sea route.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># These methods would be picked up even by terrorist outfits for sub-con activities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Tunnels and drones are already being used by terror groups on the India-Pakistan border.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>News<\/u>: Dozens of fighter jets and other aircraft of the IDF targeted 17 military facilities and four operational headquarters of the Hamas terrorist organisation throughout the Gaza Strip.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Fighter aircraft strikes are still a preferred option in non-contested airspace with no AD weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Drawing lessons from the Ukraine war, The IDF operations, and the HAMAS actions would take a different turn If countries sympathetic to Palestinians, armed them with shoulder-fired AD weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>View:<\/u> Israeli Retaliation will be fierce and ruthless.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># It will cause high levels of casualties and collateral damage. The common man suffers in this cycle of hate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># The chance of peace coming to the region will diminish further.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Speculation:<\/u> Hamas must be banking on support (financial, military and diplomatic) from the Islamic states (primarily Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf States, and Egypt).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Hamas does not have the military capability to take on IDF on its own.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># The conflict could spread in some or the other form to other states.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># On one hand the conflict is between the East and the West (eg Ukraine) and on the other hand, on religious divide (Islam vs rest).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># China has a reason to rejoice in either case.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Observation<\/u>: The Hamas attack commenced on the day of the Sabbath.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Military history is replete with wars commencing on dates when the enemy is likely to be off guard.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># In hostile and tense circumstances, the alertness level needs to be increased on such dates and occasions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Speculation<\/u>: What would be the response of Arab countries?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># It would be interesting to wait and watch in view of the fact that some of them have improved their relations with Israel recently.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Thought:<\/u> How will it affect the Ukraine war?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># US attention will get divided.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Thinking Point<\/u>: Impact on India and appropriate response.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Another tightrope walk for India to not join any camp.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Military supplies from Israel and cooperation would slow down.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Take off of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEE-EC) would get delayed if not derailed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Comparison<\/u>: Whose narrative has greater acceptance and credibility?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Israel is losing credibility due to recent actions leading up to this stage.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Hamas is losing credibility due to the way they are killing and treating Israeli citizens.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>View:<\/u> This was bound to happen as the IDF was killing protesting Palestinian youth over the last few months. Palestinians reached their limits of forbearance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># It is quite possible, with Palestinians surrounded and boxed in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, with no freedom, no control over basic necessities like food, \u00a0water, and electricity, and constant harassment and encroachment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"># Although not advocated, Israel could learn from China the art of keeping the pot boiling, maintaining below a certain threshold, and making gradual gains.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Lesson:<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"> Role of media is important for influencing opinions.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">Coming up: Detailed Analysis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\"><u>Suggestions and value additions are most welcome<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">For regular updates, please register here:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"YDXe3dSRWm\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/\">Subscribe<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Subscribe&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/embed\/#?secret=c8xV7TJY1b#?secret=YDXe3dSRWm\" data-secret=\"YDXe3dSRWm\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><u>References and credits<\/u><\/p>\n<p>To all the online sites and channels.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><u>Disclaimer<\/u>:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Information and data included in the blog are for educational &amp; non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; (In random order) &nbsp; Speculation: It is a failure of Israeli intelligence. # Have they intentionally allowed it to happen? To gain legitimacy to crush HAMAS. Reunite Israelis, as fault lines had started appearing in Israel (Since January 2023, large-scale protests have been taking place across\u00a0Israel\u00a0in response to the government&#8217;s push for a\u00a0wide-ranging judicial &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2023\/10\/07\/israel-conflict-speculations-news-vis-a-vis-analysis-views\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;393: ISRAEL CONFLICT: SPECULATIONS &#038; NEWS Vis-\u00e0-vis ANALYSIS &#038; VIEWS&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,115],"tags":[399,400,398,401,117],"class_list":["post-6477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","category-war-and-warfare","tag-gaza","tag-hamas","tag-israel","tag-palestine","tag-war"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6477"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6477\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9090,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6477\/revisions\/9090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}