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Pic Courtesy: Internet<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Xi Jinping, China’s commander-in-chief missed the G-20 summit in India. It is the first time that he has skipped the global leaders’ gathering in his decade in power.\u00a0 One of the possible reasons could be the focus on internal issues.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n General Li Shangfu, China\u2019s defence minister, was last seen in public on 29 Aug at a China-Africa security forum in Beijing. He conspicuously didn\u2019t show up to an international meeting he was expected to attend in early September, Chinese officials covered it up saying it was due to a \u201chealth condition.\u201d Several scheduled meetings between Li and foreign defence officials have been cancelled, with the status of future meetings uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Li\u2019s mysterious absence follows the similar disappearance of China\u2019s former foreign minister Qin Gang, who was last seen in public on June 25 before being unceremoniously replaced from his post. Qin was also initially said to be facing unspecified \u201chealth issues\u201d and he has still not reappeared in public. Last month two of China\u2019s top Rocket Force generals in charge of the nuclear arsenal were replaced, in what was interpreted as an attempt to break patronage networks in the important PLA division.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Two high-profile ministers have gone missing without explanation in a matter of months, underscores the opacity and unpredictability of China\u2019s internal politics. Such a dramatic upheaval among the highest ranks of the Chinese Communist Party is quite unusual.\u00a0 Government officials are extensively vetted before appointments and promotions to ensure stability, and Li and Qin had just been elevated to the State Council, the country\u2019s top administrative body, earlier this year.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The disappearance of China’s defence minister, the latest in a string of upheavals in the country’s top ranks, is stoking a lot of speculative uncertainties.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Li\u2019s Appointment<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Li, an aerospace engineer with little international exposure, with a background in logistics rather than combat, was appointed to the senior military position in March. He had worked earlier in China’s satellite program and was seen as a technocrat who helped implement Xi’s modernisation vision for the PLA. In 2016, he was the deputy commander of the recently created Strategic Support Force to enhance its space and cyber warfare capabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Since his appointment in March, Li has been the public face of China\u2019s expanding military diplomacy. Although not in a direct command position, Li serves on Xi’s seven-person Central Military Commission and is one of China’s five state councillors, a cabinet position that outranks regular ministers.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Li\u2019s time earlier as head of the military equipment division had resulted in sanctions from Washington, which accused him of involvement in the purchase of weapons from Russia. Some analysts think that Li being subject to US sanctions may have boosted his career. As Li rose through his career to this point, he would have been vetted to ensure he was absolutely loyal to the party and to Xi.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Possible Reason<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n His disappearance is particularly notable because he was appointed recently and he has run into trouble less than one year after being boosted to the top ranks by Xi Jinping. This sudden and opaque action indicates that proximity does not equate to patronage in Xi’s scheme of things.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n In July, the Central Military Commission, which Xi chairs, announced a corruption probe into equipment procurement going back almost six years. The following month Xi removed the two top generals at the PLA\u2019s Rocket Force, which oversees the country\u2019s missiles and nuclear weapons, in the biggest shake-up of the military leadership in a decade.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n In July, the military\u2019s equipment department issued a public notice that it was investigating corruption relating to the bidding process, and the formation of private factions, dating back to 2017. The notice listed eight violations, including \u201cactively leaking secrets,\u201d \u201cunfair handling of matters\u201d and \u201clack of supervision.\u201d It seems. China’s defence minister, Li Shangfu, along with some other senior officials is under investigation in a corruption probe into military procurement during his previous appointment. Officially, there is still no confirmation about what has happened to Gen Li Shangfu and his whereabouts.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Purging<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Xi, who took power in 2012, has made anti-corruption his signature policy. On taking over power he removed the two vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission who were later charged with corruption. A few years later, the former chief of the joint staff of the PLA, Fang Fenghui, was placed under investigation for corruption, and in 2018, Xi fired the Chinese head of Interpol after he reportedly admitted to taking more than $2 million in bribes. In 2019, Fang was sentenced to life in prison on corruption charges.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n High-level disappearances are bad for the party but they are not unexpected. The party constantly looks for and gets rid of the impure elements within itself. The underlying thinking is that short-term damage to the party\u2019s image is an acceptable cost to be paid in exchange for long-term benefits.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Xi\u2019s anti-corruption campaign has been about party rectification as much as graft-busting. But he has now been in power long enough and has replaced virtually all of the people at the highest level of the party with allies and loyalists.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n There is also a speculation that Xi\u2019s top aides are not aligning themselves enough with him so he probably is using this crackdown to enhance further loyalty to his leadership. Both from the civilian and the military side.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Points to Ponder: Think it over<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The events highlight the degree to which Xi has consolidated power and made everyone else in government replaceable. It seems that the CCP has moved away from the collective leadership to the centralised rule of Xi.<\/strong><\/em> Questioning Xi\u2019s judgment has become increasingly dangerous, and current Chinese officials would be afraid of making decisions or speaking out.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The looming threat, implied by the sudden apparent removal of two officials who operated in prominent diplomatic roles, that the government could change direction at a moment\u2019s notice exacerbates the uncertainty of engagement with China.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n A shake-up of the military at the time of heightened activity of the PLA near Taiwan and the East China Sea, as well as stepped-up paramilitary activity in the South China Sea, could create a potential risk of accidents, escalation and crises.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n China\u2019s lack of transparency coupled with unexpected changes, heightens the risk and reduces the confidence of foreign investors in doing business with China.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The extent of corruption at the highest level that has permeated the Chinese military and state institutions casts serious doubts about Chinese military capabilities. The alleged corruption calls into question the professionalism and readiness of the PLA.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Future Uncertainties<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n China\u2019s current defence policy and approach to foreign engagement, which has grown increasingly aggressive. These events, spur speculation and some concern about the continuity of Chinese policy. Will they undergo a drastic change and in which way?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Will so much centralised power cause power intoxication and irrational behaviour?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Suggestions and value additions are most welcome<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n For regular updates, please register here<\/span><\/p>\n