{"id":4967,"date":"2022-05-13T13:23:45","date_gmt":"2022-05-13T07:53:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=4967"},"modified":"2024-12-27T18:20:28","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T12:50:28","slug":"sri-lankas-economic-crisis-lessons-and-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/05\/13\/sri-lankas-economic-crisis-lessons-and-opportunities\/","title":{"rendered":"261: Sri Lanka&#8217;s Economic Crisis: Lessons and Opportunities"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4972 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/a.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"214\" height=\"161\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\">Pic courtesy internet<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">Sri Lanka is suffering its worst economic crisis since its independence from Britain in 1948. Her foreign exchange reserves have depleted to about $2 billion and the debt obligations to be paid back this year have risen to about $7 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\"><u>Chaotic Situation<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">The island nation is battling multi-year high inflation, a shortage of food and essentials, and a political conundrum.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">People in Sri Lanka have been queuing up outside fuel pumps and grocery stores to buy essentials, which are in scarcity in the country.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">Blackouts round the clock and deadly fights over essentials have become a norm lately.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">Protests started over rising prices and shortages, have flared up and have grown in size and spread across the country.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">Clashes are taking place between the ruling party\u2019s supporters and the anti-government protest camp in the commercial capital Colombo, causing death and destruction.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">The President had to impose an emergency in the country, for the second time in less than two months. The PM had to resign.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333300;\"><strong><u>Possible Reasons for Economic Crisis<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"><u><span style=\"color: #0000ff; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18.6667px;\">Superfluous<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u00a0Projects<\/span><\/span><\/u><span style=\"color: #0000ff; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">. Sri Lanka has spent big on questionable infrastructure projects backed by Chinese loans that added to its already unsustainable debt.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Populist measures: Tax Cuts.<\/u> In 2019, the biggest tax cuts were unveiled in the history of Sri Lanka. This further worsened chronic budget deficits.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\"><u>Debt and Default. <\/u>In April, Sri Lanka announced it would default on its $51 billion foreign debt to save money for essential imports. The move failed to shore up Sri Lanka&#8217;s deteriorating finances.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\"><u>Spiraling Debt<\/u>. Rating agencies soon downgraded the country out of concern that the public debt was spiraling out of control. And it became harder for the government to secure new loans.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003366;\">\u200b<u><\/u> <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pandemic<\/span>. A few months after the tax cuts, lockdowns due to Covid happened. International tourist arrivals dropped to zero. Remittances from Sri Lankans working abroad dried up. Easter bombings further added to the decline in tourism.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">\u200b<u>Fertiliser Ban.<\/u> With foreign reserves dwindling fast, authorities banned several imports in 2021, including fertiliser and agricultural chemicals. About a third of the country&#8217;s agricultural fields were left unplanted by farmers. It hit the production of tea, a vital export earner.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\"><u>Food and Fuel Shortage. <\/u>With shrinking reserves, traders began struggling to source foreign currency to buy imported goods. Rice, lentils, sugar, and milk powder began disappearing from shelves, forcing supermarkets to ration them. Then gas stations started running out of petrol and kerosene.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-4973 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wion-300x165.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"165\" srcset=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wion-300x165.webp 300w, https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wion-768x423.webp 768w, https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/wion.webp 918w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\">Pic courtesy: wion<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333300;\"><u>Opportunity<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">New PM has taken over. The Indian government has so far helped Sri Lanka with billions of dollars of aid to fulfill its essential needs. China has also helped the country by restructuring some of its debt. The Sri Lankan government is also seeking help from the IMF.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">In this period of economic uncertainty, however, there is an opportunity for India to repair and restore the traditional relationship it had with its island neighbor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><u>Indian Concern<\/u>. India-Sri Lanka ties took a downward turn in the last two odd decades, with Sri Lanka moving into the Chinese camp. It firmed up a series of agreements with China (including a $1.35-billion deal to construct the coal-fired Lakvijaya Power Plant in Puttalam, and the controversial Hambantota Port). Sri Lanka eventually lost the Hambantota Port when it began to struggle with the repayment of loans. It resulted in the Port and more than 15,000 acres of land being handed to Beijing in a 99-year lease. India was right to worry when the leases gave China an advantage for using it as a possible strategic military port for its Indian Ocean fleet.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\"><u>Realisation<\/u>. Sri Lanka\u2019s ambitions for a lucrative future, conveniently financed by Chinese loans, have been upset by the downturn in the Sri Lankan economy. Sri Lanka has realised the limits of economic and strategic cooperation with China the hard way. Furthermore, the Sri Lankan leadership has realized that India has always stepped in when Sri Lanka needed it, and the <strong><em>relationship with China could not be at the expense of India. T<\/em><\/strong>o alleviate India\u2019s concerns, Sri Lanka is trying now to balance its relations with India. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Magnanimous Approach<\/u>. \u00a0As Sri Lanka struggles, India should embrace the spirit of \u2018Neighbourhood First\u2019 and restore the image of a traditional partner with Sri Lanka. India should extend support through supplies of food, medicine, and other essential goods. India has provided Colombo with a $1 billion line of credit for food, medicine, and other essential items and $500 million worth of fuel. It should not look for economic concessions or burden Colombo with additional debt, but jointly assist the island to recover from the economic devastation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\"><u>Focus<\/u>. \u00a0Indian assistance should be focused on humanitarian assistance, capacity-building, human resources development, infrastructure development, agricultural development, and financial management.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333300;\"><strong><u>Lessons<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">Formulation and implementation of sound Economic Policies is the most important task of governance.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">Populist economic policies are harmful when used for political gains.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Equitable growth is essential for stability in the country (Rising tide should lift all types of boats equally). Gini Index should be watched closely.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">IMF still has relevance and is beneficial if approached early for assistance. The austerity policies that the IMF demands (including public expenditure cuts, higher taxes, a floating exchange rate, removal of subsidies, etc), maybe politically unpopular but are beneficial in the long run.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Dissent and disagreement are essential elements of democratic discourse, and when that is suppressed one can be sure of a decline.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">An atmosphere of nep<\/span><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">otism is harmful to the economy and sound democratic governance.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333399;\">While a strong macroeconomic and financial regulatory structure is necessary, a crisis management mechanism and capability are equally essential. Professional advice should be sought on different matters.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">An effective and reliable public communication system is essential to avoid the spread of misinformation.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\"><u>Bottom Line<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">A strong economy is essential for development and survival.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\"><u>Question<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Are we doing things right?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">is their scope for improvement?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>\u00a0<\/u><\/span><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Suggestions and value additions are most welcome<\/u><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">For regular updates, please register here<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"j3c8SylFdq\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/\">Subscribe<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Subscribe&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/embed\/#?secret=2J99tugfC6#?secret=j3c8SylFdq\" data-secret=\"j3c8SylFdq\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>References and credits<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">To all the online sites and channels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Disclaimer<\/u>:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Information and data included in the blog are for educational &amp; non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Pic courtesy internet Sri Lanka is suffering its worst economic crisis since its independence from Britain in 1948. Her foreign exchange reserves have depleted to about $2 billion and the debt obligations to be paid back this year have risen to about $7 billion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,25,68],"tags":[24,257,116,39,216,281,40],"class_list":["post-4967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","category-china","category-geo-politics","tag-china","tag-economy","tag-geopolitics","tag-india","tag-security","tag-sri-lanka","tag-world-order"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4967"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4967\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8770,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4967\/revisions\/8770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}