{"id":4955,"date":"2022-05-12T14:41:50","date_gmt":"2022-05-12T09:11:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=4955"},"modified":"2024-12-27T18:20:05","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T12:50:05","slug":"24-years-cycle-nuclear-aspects-revisited","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/05\/12\/24-years-cycle-nuclear-aspects-revisited\/","title":{"rendered":"259: 24 Years Cycle: Nuclear Aspects Revisited"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-4964 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/modern-diplomacy-300x220.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/modern-diplomacy-300x220.jpg 300w, https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/modern-diplomacy-768x562.jpg 768w, https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/modern-diplomacy.jpg 820w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\">Pic Courtesy Internet: Modern Diplomacy<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Approximately 24 years after independence, Indian scientists at BARC were authorised to detonate an indigenously designed nuclear device.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">India conducted nuclear tests for the first time in May 1974.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">24 Years later nuclear tests were conducted again on 11 &amp; 13 May 1998.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><strong><em>It is 24 years TODAY from the last nuclear test.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Ukraine war has thrown up debate about some of the nuclear aspects.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Nuclear Tests by India<\/u><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Pokharan I<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">The test was codenamed &#8216;Smiling Buddha&#8217; and conducted on May 18, 1974.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">It is believed that the actual yield was around 8-12 Kilotons of TNT.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">It took nearly two-year preparation for India to conduct this test.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">The highlight of the test was that India had managed to avoid detection by the United States and other intelligence agencies.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003366;\">It was the first confirmed nuclear test by a nation that was not a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">India faced a series of sanctions from nations like the United States which said that such tests can lead to nuclear proliferation.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Pokharan-II <\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">The tests were initiated on 11 May 1998, under the assigned code name Operation Shakti, with the detonation of one fusion and two fission devices. On 13 May 1998, two additional fission devices were detonated.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">The tests achieved their main objective of (assessed) yield up to 200 kilotons.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">These tests also resulted in a variety of sanctions against India by several major countries including Japan and the United States.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><u>Relevant aspects\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><\/span><strong style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18.6667px;\"><u>have\u00a0<\/u><\/strong><strong style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>re-emerged during the Ukraine war<\/u><\/strong><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Nuclear Deterrence<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">According to deterrence theory, nuclear weapons are intended to deter other states from attacking with their nuclear weapons, through the threat of retaliation and possibly mutually assured destruction. Nuclear deterrence can also be applied to an attack by conventional forces.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Military interventions around the world in the recent past, make one believe that nuclear weapons provide nuclear deterrence only against the enemy\u2019s nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">During the Russian special military operation against Ukraine, Russia put her nuclear forces on full alert (special combat readiness) and gave a very stern warning against any third-party intervention.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><em>In this case, nuclear deterrence is proving to be effective even in the non-nuclear realm.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Nuclear Arms Race<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, there were thousands of former Soviet nuclear warheads, as well as hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers, left on Ukraine\u2019s territory.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">In 1992, Ukraine signed the Lisbon Protocol and it joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear-weapon state in 1994. The transfer of all nuclear material took some time, but by 2001, all nuclear weapons had been transferred to Russia to be dismantled and all launch silos decommissioned.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333399;\">The question being asked is if Russia would have invaded Ukraine if it still had those nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><em>This thought process may encourage many countries to desire for acquisition of nuclear power and enhancement of nuclear power by those already in possession of it.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Nuclear Policy<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333399;\">In June 2020, Russia reviewed its policy on the use of its nuclear arsenal.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\"><u>Deterrence<\/u>. The policy outlines that Russia considered nuclear weapons exclusively as a means of deterrence, her strategy is defensive by nature and is aimed at maintaining the nuclear forces&#8217; potential at the level sufficient for nuclear deterrence. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\"><u>Existential Threat<\/u>. It also guarantees the protection of national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state, and deterrence of a potential adversary from aggression against the Russian Federation and\/or its allies.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\"><u>Escalate to de-escalate<\/u>. The document also suggests that Russia might escalate to the use of nuclear weaponry if it faces losing a conventional conflict.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">The question remains unanswered, as to what exactly is an existential threat? And what are the situational conditions for nuclear escalation?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">Similarly, China\u2019s Active defence policy is also vague, wherein China decides what is the level of threat to it and when to take pre-emptive military action, and the level of action.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333399;\">A vague policy works for strategic coercion by keeping the enemy guessing.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><em>However, it can result in a disaster by wrong interpretation or miscalculation.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Tactical Nuclear Weapons<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">The Ukraine war has once again triggered the debate about the efficacy of tactical nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333399;\">A vague definition of a tactical nuclear weapon is that it is a weapon with a smaller warhead that causes localised devastation. These weapons could be of various sizes, and their impact would depend on whether they explode at ground level or above the Earth&#8217;s surface.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Unanswered questions remain:-<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">How do you classify a nuclear weapon to be tactical?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">How do you ascertain whether the incoming projectile has a conventional or a nuclear (tactical\/heavy-caliber) warhead?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">How does one control the escalation level in such a scenario?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><em>Hope human beings do not learn the answers the hard way.<\/em><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Tidbits<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Prevailing Destructive Power<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">As compared to Hiroshima, Washington\u2019s biggest test blast was 1,000 times as large, and that of Moscow was 3,000 times.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">The combined capability of existing nuclear weapons is to destroy the earth many times over.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><u>Dreadful Scenario<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">How long before these so-called tactical nuclear weapons fall in the hands of irresponsible terrorists\/non-state actors?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\"><u>Question<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Considering the prevailing situation, is it the right time to revisit\/review India\u2019s nuclear policy?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\"><u>Suggestions and value additions are most welcome<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">For regular updates, please register here<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"MH7PoNeGjp\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/\">Subscribe<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Subscribe&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/embed\/#?secret=jwgqCB0ksl#?secret=MH7PoNeGjp\" data-secret=\"MH7PoNeGjp\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\"><u>References and credits<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">To all the online sites and channels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"><u>Disclaimer<\/u>:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">Information and data included in the blog are for educational &amp; non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from sources deemed reliable and accurate. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for purposes of wider dissemination.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Pic Courtesy Internet: Modern Diplomacy Approximately 24 years after independence, Indian scientists at BARC were authorised to detonate an indigenously designed nuclear device.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,78,278,122],"tags":[24,116,39,279,280,154,52,253,45,60,95,40],"class_list":["post-4955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","category-military-capability","category-nuclear","category-warfare","tag-china","tag-geopolitics","tag-india","tag-nuclear","tag-nuclear-policy","tag-russia","tag-strategic-thinking","tag-ukraine","tag-usa","tag-warfare","tag-weapons","tag-world-order"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4955"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4955\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8768,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4955\/revisions\/8768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}