{"id":4857,"date":"2022-04-02T14:06:28","date_gmt":"2022-04-02T08:36:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=4857"},"modified":"2024-12-27T18:18:42","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T12:48:42","slug":"pakistan-in-turmoil-once-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/04\/02\/pakistan-in-turmoil-once-again\/","title":{"rendered":"251: Pakistan in Turmoil: Once Again"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-4861\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/5b7799eb5ae7d-176x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"176\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/5b7799eb5ae7d-176x300.jpg 176w, https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/5b7799eb5ae7d.jpg 281w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 176px) 100vw, 176px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\">Pic Courtesy: Net (Dawn)<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Khan a popular cricket star, was elected prime minister in 2018 on a reform and anti-corruption platform.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">Khan followed an antagonistic brand of politics, at times unwilling to build political consensus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">Some parties and the opposition formed an alliance in 2020 and have tried to oust Khan from power.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">The opposition says Imran Khan has failed to deliver, citing inflation, and economic pressures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">Now he faces a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\"><strong><u>Dynamics<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Political Pattern<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">Pakistan displays a political cycle indicating built-in political instability.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">No Pakistani prime minister has completed their full five-year term in office.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333399;\">The opposition parties do not wait for elections to occur, for the previous party to be voted out.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\"><u>Military<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">Khan\u2019s relationship with the military has changed.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333399;\">The military had stood behind Khan since 2018.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">Lately, faultlines have emerged in Khan\u2019s relationship with the military.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003366;\">The military is not happy with the way he runs domestic politics.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">The military also does not like his antagonistic brand of politics.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333300;\">One of the triggers is the appointment of the ISI chief. The military had presented the candidate for the next chief of the ISI and Khan dragged his feet over that, leading to an impasse. This was an embarrassment for the military.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\"><u>Foreign Policy<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">Khan wants Pakistan to have an independent foreign policy, i.e. good relationship with all powers (Russia, China, and the US).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">But the reality is that under Khan\u2019s term, Pakistan has drifted away from the US.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">Whereas, Pakistan is getting closer to China and Russia.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\">The Pak military wants a closer relationship with the US.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Afghanistan Factor<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003366;\">US withdrawal from Afghanistan is another factor for the coldness of the relationship with the US.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">The US has no need for Pakistan for its fight in Afghanistan.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Pakistan\u2019s engagement with the Taliban is another factor having both external and internal repercussions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\"><u>Imran\u2019s Last Ditch Efforts<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Khan is relying on popular political tactics, basically blaming the political turmoil on a foreign conspiracy theory, blaming the West.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">He claims that the opposition is acting at the behest of western foreign powers and the CIA.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">He is portraying himself as the one to stand up against the west.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><strong><u>Likely Outcomes<\/u><\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #3366ff;\">One thing is sure, whatever happens, would be with the support of the Pakistan Military.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">The military has said that it is neutral in the vote of no confidence situation. What it means is it is ditching Imran Khan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\"><u>Imran Stays<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">This is possible only if he cuts a deal with the military.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">In this case, he would be weakened and would have to tow the military line.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003366;\"><u>Imran Goes<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\">Political instability would prevail.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333399;\">This could result in early elections.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">The elections would be highly charged and the possibility of political violence is very high.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333300;\"><u>Imran takes political asylum<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">This is another possibility as has happened before with Nawaz Sharif and Pervez Musharraf.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">He is already stating a threat to his life. This could be making grounds for seeking political asylum in the future.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><strong><u>Repercussions<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Pakistani people are losing faith in the electoral process.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">Whatsoever be the outcome, either way, Pakistan\u2019s democracy will suffer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">Prevailing political instability and violence may create further economic crisis in the country.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">The military may step in and take control as has happened before, till they install another puppet government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\"><u>Bottom Line<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18pt; color: #800080;\">Time for India to keep its guard up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\">Going by past experience anti-Indian activities and sentiments go up during these times.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><u>Question<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">Who are the contenders for the post of PM in Pakistan?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\"><u>Random Thought 1<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">The oft-repeated political cycle in Pakistan sounds familiar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">The military installs a puppet government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Things keep getting worse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Military cuts the cord.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">The military takes over or installs another government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Military is seen as a saviour and retains control.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\"><u>Random Thought 2<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">The oft-repeated cycle of political asylum also sounds familiar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">The political leaders in Pakistan stay in power till the military wants.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">Once deposed, they take political asylum.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">Live happily ever after.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Suggestions and value additions are most welcome<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333300;\">For regular updates, please register here<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"fllyI4OZOa\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/\">Subscribe<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Subscribe&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/embed\/#?secret=VXFQM8Lwxz#?secret=fllyI4OZOa\" data-secret=\"fllyI4OZOa\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">References and credits<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">To all the online news channels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pic Courtesy: Net (Dawn) Khan a popular cricket star, was elected prime minister in 2018 on a reform and anti-corruption platform. Khan followed an antagonistic brand of politics, at times unwilling to build political consensus. Some parties and the opposition formed an alliance in 2020 and have tried to oust Khan from power. The opposition &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/04\/02\/pakistan-in-turmoil-once-again\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;251: Pakistan in Turmoil: Once Again&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[72,19,68,56],"tags":[116,277,35,45],"class_list":["post-4857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-afghanistan","category-article","category-geo-politics","category-pakistan","tag-geopolitics","tag-pak-army","tag-pakistan","tag-usa"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4857","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4857"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4857\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8760,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4857\/revisions\/8760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4857"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4857"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4857"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}