{"id":4835,"date":"2022-03-31T18:27:21","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T12:57:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=4835"},"modified":"2024-12-27T16:23:05","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T10:53:05","slug":"ukraine-war-maybe-the-birth-of-a-new-global-monetary-order","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/03\/31\/ukraine-war-maybe-the-birth-of-a-new-global-monetary-order\/","title":{"rendered":"249: UKRAINE WAR: MAYBE THE BIRTH OF A NEW GLOBAL MONETARY ORDER"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-4836 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/The_Russian_Ruble_vs._The_American_Dollar-530x424-1-300x240.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/The_Russian_Ruble_vs._The_American_Dollar-530x424-1-300x240.jpg 300w, https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/The_Russian_Ruble_vs._The_American_Dollar-530x424-1.jpg 530w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\">Pic courtesy: The Borgen Project (Internet)<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\"><u>Western Sanctions on Russia<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">The United States and European Union have frozen nearly half the Russian central bank\u2019s $640-billion foreign exchange reserves held in banks outside Russia.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">Russian companies have been debarred from doing transactions in dollars and euros.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">400 odd western firms have closed operations in Russia.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">A majority of the Russian banks have been cut off from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), which executes financial transactions and payments among banks worldwide.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><u>Expected results<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">The sanctions and curbs were expected to result in a big sell-off of the rouble.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">It was expected to create insolvency risks for the Russian economy.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\"><u>Rouble Performance<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">The rouble was trading at around 76 before the invasion.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">It went down to a record low of 139 on March 7.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">The rouble appreciated to 83 to the dollar intraday on 29 Mar.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">The rouble has recouped most of its losses.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\"><u>Sanction Effect (So Far)<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Considering the severity of European and American sanctions on Russia, the effect on the rouble is modest. The recovery in the rouble suggests that the impact of the West\u2019s economic sanctions is much lower than anticipated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\"><u>Likely reasons<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">European countries continue to buy oil and gas from Russia. The European Union gets 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Major emerging markets (including China) continue to trade with Russia.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">The biggest jump in the rouble occurred when the Russian president announced that unfriendly countries (EU, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) would have to pay in roubles. This increased the demand for the rouble.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\"><u>Implications<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\"><u>Energy Crisis<\/u>. The sanctions on Russia might lead to a global energy crisis.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">This could be the beginning of the de-dollarisation of global trade, especially in oil and gas.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">This could be the beginning of a new global monetary order.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">The new monetary order could be based on commodity-based currencies.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">This would weaken the Eurodollar system.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'comic sans ms', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\">It is wait and watch for long term repercussions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><u>Bottom Line<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">It is all about Money.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\"><u>Question<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Is this the end of the Petro-Dollar?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\"><u>Suggestions and value additions are most welcome<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\">Links to previous posts on Ukraine war:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"0dpPYufmOT\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/03\/17\/use-or-non-use-of-airpower-in-ukraine-war\/\">USE OR NON USE OF AIRPOWER IN UKRAINE WAR<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;USE OR NON USE OF AIRPOWER IN UKRAINE WAR&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/03\/17\/use-or-non-use-of-airpower-in-ukraine-war\/embed\/#?secret=8NDfozwGZs#?secret=0dpPYufmOT\" data-secret=\"0dpPYufmOT\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"BqNRXk9gVN\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/03\/02\/ukraine-crisis-india-02-feb-22\/\">UKRAINE CRISIS &#038; INDIA  (02 FEB 22)<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;UKRAINE CRISIS &#038; INDIA  (02 FEB 22)&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/03\/02\/ukraine-crisis-india-02-feb-22\/embed\/#?secret=svak37TqRl#?secret=BqNRXk9gVN\" data-secret=\"BqNRXk9gVN\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"sgbhMv1V93\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/02\/24\/russia-ukraine-crisis-blows-up-24-feb-22\/\">RUSSIA &#8211; UKRAINE CRISIS BLOWS UP: 24 FEB 22<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;RUSSIA &#8211; UKRAINE CRISIS BLOWS UP: 24 FEB 22&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/02\/24\/russia-ukraine-crisis-blows-up-24-feb-22\/embed\/#?secret=MHWj7MBKJC#?secret=sgbhMv1V93\" data-secret=\"sgbhMv1V93\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"BeuqdSgxb5\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/02\/24\/ukraine-crisis-a-game-of-dog-and-the-bone\/\">UKRAINE CRISIS:  A GAME OF DOG AND THE BONE<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;UKRAINE CRISIS:  A GAME OF DOG AND THE BONE&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/02\/24\/ukraine-crisis-a-game-of-dog-and-the-bone\/embed\/#?secret=LO3eqUw1qH#?secret=BeuqdSgxb5\" data-secret=\"BeuqdSgxb5\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"mwdaO9moEo\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/02\/24\/russia-ukraine-crisis-escalates-24-feb-22\/\">RUSSIA \u2013 UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES (24 FEB 22)<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;RUSSIA \u2013 UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES (24 FEB 22)&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/02\/24\/russia-ukraine-crisis-escalates-24-feb-22\/embed\/#?secret=LntHhyDJNX#?secret=mwdaO9moEo\" data-secret=\"mwdaO9moEo\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">For regular updates, please register here<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"mXPjLzBBEs\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/\">Subscribe<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Subscribe&#8221; &#8212; Air Marshal&#039;s Perspective\" src=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/embed\/#?secret=XqM1fMQvz2#?secret=mXPjLzBBEs\" data-secret=\"mXPjLzBBEs\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\"><u>References and Credits<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;\">To all the online news channels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pic courtesy: The Borgen Project (Internet) &nbsp; Western Sanctions on Russia &nbsp; The United States and European Union have frozen nearly half the Russian central bank\u2019s $640-billion foreign exchange reserves held in banks outside Russia. &nbsp; Russian companies have been debarred from doing transactions in dollars and euros. &nbsp; 400 odd western firms have closed &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2022\/03\/31\/ukraine-war-maybe-the-birth-of-a-new-global-monetary-order\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;249: UKRAINE WAR: MAYBE THE BIRTH OF A NEW GLOBAL MONETARY ORDER&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,68,115,122],"tags":[273,257,274,154,272,253,45,60,40],"class_list":["post-4835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","category-geo-politics","category-war-and-warfare","category-warfare","tag-dollar","tag-economy","tag-rouble","tag-russia","tag-sanctions","tag-ukraine","tag-usa","tag-warfare","tag-world-order"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4835"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4835\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8736,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4835\/revisions\/8736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}