{"id":4057,"date":"2021-09-04T06:31:52","date_gmt":"2021-09-04T01:01:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=4057"},"modified":"2024-12-27T16:08:39","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T10:38:39","slug":"taliban-seizing-power-so-quickly-some-factors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2021\/09\/04\/taliban-seizing-power-so-quickly-some-factors\/","title":{"rendered":"183: Taliban&#8217;s Runover: Some Factors"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><u>Setting and Population Density Pattern.<\/u>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Afghanistan\u2019s overall population density is only about 148 people per square mile \/ 57 people per square kilometer (Indian population density is 1202 per square mile \/ 464 per square kilometer).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333300;\">Even in the populated areas of Afghanistan, people are quite spread out, with only 26 percent of the population living in urban centres. This dispersed population pattern, is a challenge for the state army to defend while, it favours the Taliban\u2019s quick-moving offensive.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><u>Taliban Strategy<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\">Following the withdrawal of Western forces, the Taliban swiftly and easily occupied vast swaths of sparsely populated territory. They then used that territory to launch coordinated and fast-moving offensives.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Instead of traditional tools of warfare (like artillery and armour), the Taliban moved quickly in weaponised pickup trucks to defeat dug-in defensive They forced The Afghan forces to retreat from outposts and checkpoints to (safety of) urban areas, thereby ceding control of supply lines and major highways. This allowed Taliban forces to surround and isolate urban centers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003366;\">Local officials were quick to accept Taliban control because they had little allegiance to the central government and knew that Afghan forces were unwilling (and unable) to defend their areas from Taliban<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><u>Taliban Advantages<\/u>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">Taliban enjoyed a presence throughout the country, allowing them to pressure the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in multiple locations.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">The Taliban were able to conduct lightning offensives across many fronts, which fatally stressed the limited cohesion of the Afghan National Defense and Security.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><u>Afghan Security Force: Challenges<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">Low force-to-space ratios meant that defenders had significant ground to cover and had to move swiftly and in a coordinated fashion to stand any chance of successfully countering Taliban threats from many The Afghan security forces were not geared up to these tasks.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">The Afghan military lacked the capacity and cohesion required to stand firm and defend against fast-moving offensives across many fronts.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Afghan forces had always been heavily dependent on S. air support for troop movement, re-supply, and combat operations. In absence of the air support, the Afghan military was unable to regroup or move units around quickly.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003366;\">Afghan forces were hampered by lack of cohesion, leadership, motivation, and limited training &amp; mobility.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><u>Outcome.<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">The weaknesses of the Afghan security forces, combined with the low force-to-space ratios generated by Afghanistan\u2019s terrain and its population distribution, made a quick Taliban victory a reality.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">Taliban rarely had to use force because they could leverage their geographic reach to intimidate local leaders and convince defenders to flee or surrender.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\">Lessons<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #000080; font-size: 14pt;\">Understanding Local conditions is Important.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #800080; font-size: 14pt;\">One solution does not work for every problem.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #008000; font-size: 14pt;\">Psychological (Mind) factor of any armed is important.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #003366; font-size: 14pt;\">Besides Equipment and training, motivation and leadership is equally important.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: 'comic sans ms', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">There is much more to it &#8211; More coming up<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><u>Questions<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Has the western world really understood Afghanistan?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\">Is the fight against terrorism being orchestrated correctly?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; color: #000000; font-family: 'comic sans ms', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Titbit<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'comic sans ms', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Afghanistan is called graveyard of empires.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'comic sans ms', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Britishers came and failed<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'comic sans ms', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Russians tried and failed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: 'comic sans ms', sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">Yanks tried for long and failed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Random Thoughts<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">Now it is Chinese turn<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">(Chinese are too smart to burn their hands &#8211; they will let Pakistan do Their dirty work)<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008000; font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'comic sans ms', sans-serif;\">Pakistan is playing with a two edged sword.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008000; font-size: 14pt; font-family: 'comic sans ms', sans-serif;\">will the nurtured snake bite back<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\"><u>Suggestions and Value additions are most welcome<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">For regular updates, please register here<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\"><a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/\">https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/subscribe\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><u>References<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><u><a href=\"https:\/\/warontherocks.com\/\">https:\/\/warontherocks.com\/<\/a><\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/voices\/afghanistan-taliban-uk-war-troops-b1902270.html\">https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/voices\/afghanistan-taliban-uk-war-troops-b1902270.html<\/a><\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/united-states\/2021-08-17\/why-taliban-won\">https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/united-states\/2021-08-17\/why-taliban-won<\/a><\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><u><a href=\"https:\/\/cissm.umd.edu\/research-impact\/publications\/worst-case-scenario-assessing-impact-complete-isaf-military-withdrawal\">https:\/\/cissm.umd.edu\/research-impact\/publications\/worst-case-scenario-assessing-impact-complete-isaf-military-withdrawal<\/a><\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/afghanistan-army-collapse-taliban-11628958253\">https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/afghanistan-army-collapse-taliban-11628958253<\/a><\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/exclusive-taliban-advances-afghan-military-overhauls-war-strategy-limit-losses-2021-07-22\/\">https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/exclusive-taliban-advances-afghan-military-overhauls-war-strategy-limit-losses-2021-07-22\/<\/a><\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.factcheck.org\/2021\/08\/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan\/?utm_source=email&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=social-pug\">https:\/\/www.factcheck.org\/2021\/08\/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan\/?utm_source=email&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=social-pug<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Setting and Population Density Pattern.\u00a0 Afghanistan\u2019s overall population density is only about 148 people per square mile \/ 57 people per square kilometer (Indian population density is 1202 per square mile \/ 464 per square kilometer). &nbsp; Even in the populated areas of Afghanistan, people are quite spread out, with only 26 percent of &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2021\/09\/04\/taliban-seizing-power-so-quickly-some-factors\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;183: Taliban&#8217;s Runover: Some Factors&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[72,5,19,16,68,115,122,94],"tags":[173,6,47,52,175,60,95,40],"class_list":["post-4057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-afghanistan","category-airpower","category-article","category-events","category-geo-politics","category-war-and-warfare","category-warfare","category-weapons","tag-afghanistan","tag-airpower","tag-defence-services","tag-strategic-thinking","tag-taliban","tag-warfare","tag-weapons","tag-world-order"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4057"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4057\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8675,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4057\/revisions\/8675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}