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Published in the latest journal (Jun 21) of FPRC (Foreign Policy Research Centre)<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Q1. Does Russia continue to be a \u201ctime-tested partner of India\u201d? If this is not so, what does it need to correct the \u2018perceptions\u2019, and re-strengthen the link?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Indo – Russian Relations<\/u>. Geography and Geopolitics have been binding Russia and India together in the past. However, in the world politics there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests and these also change with time. The deep, traditional and even \u201ctime-tested relations\u201d shared for decades cannot be taken for granted. The premise of indo-Russia relationship has undergone significant changes since the end of the Cold War. The strategic bond that existed between India and the Soviet Union is not the same as that with Russia and has been considerably diluted. Every country places its national interests above anything else, so does Russia. Russia may not be a partner at the earlier level and perhaps we should not expect it either. From the \u201cspecial and privileged strategic partnership,\u201d we appear to be moving towards a transactional relationship.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Defence Cooperation<\/u>. One of the strong pillar of India – Russia ties has is in the defence field. A close defence relationship with any country is based on trust which takes time to build. A critical issue is risk of interruption in supplies during conflict situations due to political reasons. Russia has been a tried and tested partner in this regard. Russia has been offering advanced defence equipment and sensitive military technologies. Almost 60 – 70 percent of equipment with India\u2019s armed forces is of Russian origin. Sudden decoupling or complete switch to western equipment is not possible.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Importance of Relationship<\/u>. Russia, of course, can no longer provide the kind of political and economic support to India as it did in the Cold War years. For India, Russia is a vital partner for energy security, and defence needs, willing to supply the \u201ccutting-edge technology\u201d. India-Russia relations have not been limited to energy and defence. While defence has been the strongest leg of the bilateral cooperation, there are several other areas in which the two countries cooperate \u2013 spanning culture, trade, transportation, education, science and technology, space and nuclear energy etc.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Way Ahead<\/u>. India – Russia relations may not be as warm as they were during the Cold War, but both countries remain important for each other in the existing geopolitical scenario. Rapidly changing geo-political and geo-strategic dynamics presents significant challenges but also opportunities that India and Russia can leverage to further invigorate and intensify their relations to mutual advantage. Both the nations should view the relationship in a pragmatic manner, address their differences and divergences and identify fresh areas for cooperation. Many areas exist in which both countries can expand and deepen their relations for mutual benefit. Some suggestions are as follows:-<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Q2. Balancing Russia and the United States is a challenge to India\u2019s Multi-alignment Policy? Do you agree with the view that India’s mantra of so-called “multi-alignment” “is mostly just a cover for deceiving Russia and China as the country pivots towards the US by entering into an unprecedented military-strategic partnership with it”?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n The equations or dynamics of cold war were different. In today\u2019s complex geopolitical environment, the pursuit of national strategic interests dictate alignments for specific objectives. India cannot continue its foreign policy within the traditional framework of non-alignment. Multi alignment is perhaps a better option and seems to be a natural evolution of India\u2019s foreign policy – from non-alignment to strategic autonomy to multiple alignment. Multi-alignment is simultaneous management of several close bilateral engagements. It can also be termed as strategic equidistance. Multi alignment is a real challenge and as difficult as if not more than being nonaligned.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n India is trying to find its strategic relevance in the region and its \u201cmulti-alignment\u201d policy is driven by this perspective. India\u2019s foreign policy choices are dictated by the existing situation and not with a view to slight Russia at the cost of befriending the US. Deception is too harsh a word to describe it. The current need is to maintain a mature view of India-Russia and India – US relations, considering objective realities of today.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Russia feels abandoned and has been displeased with India befriending US, in spite of repeated diplomatic assurances that US India ties are not at the cost of Russia India ties. To reset the important bilateral ties with Russia is an arduous task and would require astute statesmanship.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Q3. How do you look at the apparent recent reset in Pakistani-Russian relations? What are its implications for India?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Pak Importance.<\/u> Pakistan\u2019s geographic location is unique in the sense that it gets involved in one way or the other in geo political dynamics of all the Western and Asian areas. It is also considered as a pivot state in Eurasia. Pakistan\u2019s economic importance in the region has become a bit more pronounced after the BRI. The fact that Pakistan has a definite say in Afghanistan, also increases its importance.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Russia – Pakistan Relations.<\/u> During cold war periods Russia and Pakistan were considered to be rivals. In recent times the relations between the two have undergone a transformation due to new power alignments and strategic realities in the changing Geopolitics of the world. Russian tilt towards Pakistan is natural because of its influence over Taliban in Afghanistan where, interests of Russia, China and Pak converge. De-hyphenation by USA and withdrawal of financial support from USA and Saudi Arabia has also made Pakistan look up to other sources like China and Russia. Although Russian leadership seems to be conveying openness for any cooperation with Pakistan but it seems to be marriage of convenience for both.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Defence Cooperation<\/u>. An upsurge is visible in the Russia – Pakistan defence cooperation in terms of increased number of exchange of military delegations, signing of defence cooperation agreement, increased participation of military exercises and sale of military arms and defence equipment. The military exercises seem to have a flavour of joint counter-terrorism drills\u00a0with sharing perspectives on military tactics and strategic doctrines related to it. Russia is also now\u00a0Pakistan\u2019s second-largest defence supplier but maintains that the sale of military arms to Pakistan is purely to assist it in its fight against terrorism.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Economic Cooperation.<\/u> Russia has promised investment in Pakistan\u2019s energy sector, pipeline project, coal power plants and construction of a railway tracks. Prospects of large scale economic engagement between Russia and Pakistan are limited because of Pakistan\u2019s poor financial situation, deep involvement of China in Pakistan and India\u2019s sensitivities.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Effect on India<\/u>. Pakistan is almost a client state of China. Russian involvement in Pakistan will be limited to the extent China allows it to be. Russia\u2019s seeming unwillingness to join the Indian effort to isolate Pakistan on terrorism is attributable to this trend.\u00a0 China is not likely to loosen its grip on Pakistan in the matters of defence equipment and economic activities. Further, India\u2019s \u201csensitivities\u201d regarding Pakistan and China further restricts Russia from accelerating the partnership. US involvement in the geopolitical environment is another factor wherein it tries to portray that Russia is sliding away to join the Pakistan – China axis and swapping Pakistan for India. While Russia tries to maintain a balance in its relations with both Pakistan and India, some clouds have undoubtedly cast a shadow on the India – Russia relationship in recent years. India needs to keep a close watch on China, Russia and Pakistan relations.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/span>Q4. How will India\u2019s involvement in the Quad and the promotion of the Indo-Pacific strategy impact on Indo – Russian ties?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Russian Views<\/u>. Russia views India\u2019s ties with Quad unfavourably. It considers the Quad to be a US led grouping hostile to the interests of Russia and China.\u00a0 It feels that India is getting into the \u201ctrap\u201d of the Indo-Pacific. Being US led grouping it feels that Quad would have an anti-Russia charter in some form or the other.\u00a0 Russia also shares it fears with China that the Quad may turn into a military alliance in future, calling it a potential Asian NATO. Their combined stand is that military alliances of any form in Asia is inadvisable and counterproductive. Russia along with China is very vocal about it and they keep cautioning \/ threatening India not to covertly or overtly get involved in it.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Indian Compulsions<\/u>. There is a global rebalancing of geopolitical alliances taking place. The rapid progress made by China in economic, technological and military fields, its belligerent attitude and aggressive policy towards its neighbours and India in particular is resetting the relationships among the major powers. India has no choice but to seek closer ties with likeminded countries to address its asymmetry and security challenges with China and Pakistan. My personal view is that India should keep an open mind even for a military alliance if need so arises in future.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Maintaining Balance<\/u>. While maintaining a balance between Indo – Russian and Indo – US relations, Indian Compulsions and views need to be conveyed forcefully that association with Quad is a necessity pushed due to Chinese attitude and behaviour. The policy is not aimed against Russia in any way and is open to all including even Russia. While doing so Russia also needs to be reminded about its increased friendship and enhanced relationship with Pakistan and China.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Q5. Moscow has increasingly leaned on China both for support as well as a way to undermine American power. How effective are Moscow\u2019s efforts to facilitate contacts and dialogue between Delhi and Beijing? Does RIC\u2014the Russia, India, and China grouping\u2014stand for anything useful?<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Russia – China<\/u>. Genesis of Russia China relations lies in their mutual needs. Post break up of erstwhile USSR financial health of Russia was not too good. China in neighbourhood, had the money but needed defence technology especially aviation related. This mutual need germinated into a relationship between the two countries. Further, Russia\u2019s tighter embrace of China was result of a political and economic necessity in the face of Western efforts to internationally isolate it and impose sanctions. In the recent years, China has emerged as Russia\u2019s key external partner, brought even closer due to their continued tensions with the US-led West. Russia sees China as a counterbalance to USA and source of much needed money. Russia has a lot at stake with China economically, Russia is the major source of China\u2019s energy and defence acquisitions. Politically, they are aligned on a number of international issues. Like all international partnerships the China – Russia partnership is one of convenience.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Indian Concern<\/u>. India is concerned about Russia\u2019s China embrace, encompassing\u00a0close political, economic and defence cooperation. India\u2019s is also apprehensive about their technology and intelligence sharing and more importantly the relationship turning into military alliance.\u00a0Russia\u2019s downplaying or ignoring China\u2019s display of coercive military pressure against India was further cause of concern for India. India is hoping that with greater interaction, Russia would show better understanding of India\u2019s security concerns arising from China\u2019s aggression in its territories.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Fault lines<\/u>. Russia \u2013 China relations are not a natural geopolitical fit. Russia and China have had a chequered history. Russians have always viewed China as a potentially strategic adversary. Russia cannot forget that the Chinese had annexed their territory earlier and there exists a fear of losing more land to illegal migration by Chinese, particularly in the East. China\u2019s geopolitical ambition is to seek global supremacy. In this quest, China will not hesitate to oppose Russia if situation so demands and also Russia would be a junior partner in the relationship. In the recent months, disagreements have already begun to appear and the intensity of their engagement has reduced somewhat.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n RIC.<\/u> Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle was relevant when proposed by Russia in the in the late 1990s to create multi-polarity in the face of U.S hegemony. The concept floundered from the beginning as all the three countries had different geo-political interests. RIC became an issues based partnership with annual meetings of foreign ministers and no major diplomatic success to show at the international stage.\u00a0 In present scenario also the three countries have diverging interests and views. \u00a0Russia and China\u2019s alignment to counter the US and India – China tensions are effectively reducing the efficacy of the RIC. Nevertheless, the RIC is a useful grouping to keep the communication channels open with China. Russia can play an important role on resolving issues between China and India. RIC grouping must be sustained for whatever value it has.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Comments and value additions are most welcome<\/span><\/p>\n For regular updates please register here –<\/span><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/fprc-journal-224x300.png\")
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