{"id":3194,"date":"2021-05-22T21:20:31","date_gmt":"2021-05-22T15:50:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=3194"},"modified":"2024-12-27T15:42:32","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T10:12:32","slug":"indo-russian-relations-us-pak-china-factors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2021\/05\/22\/indo-russian-relations-us-pak-china-factors\/","title":{"rendered":"109: INDO-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: US-Pak-China Factors"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Russia – China relations: Indian Concerns<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n

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Pic courtesy:\u00a0 The Economic Times<\/span><\/p>\n

Russia \u2013 China Relations<\/u>. Genesis of Russia China relations lies in their mutual needs. Post break up of erstwhile USSR financial health of Russia was not too good. China in neighbourhood, had the money but needed defence technology especially aviation related. This mutual need germinated into a relationship between the two countries. Further, Russia\u2019s tighter embrace of China was result of a political and economic necessity in the face of Western efforts to internationally isolate it and impose sanctions. In the recent years, China has emerged as Russia\u2019s key external partner, brought even closer due to their continued tensions with the US-led West. Russia sees China as a counterbalance to USA and source of much needed money. Russia has a lot at stake with China economically, Russia is the major source of China\u2019s energy and defence acquisitions. Politically, they are aligned on a number of international issues. Like all international partnerships the China-Russia partnership is one of convenience.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Fault lines<\/u>. Russia \u2013 China relations are not a natural geopolitical fit. Russia and China have had a chequered history. Russians have always viewed China as a potentially strategic adversary. Russia cannot forget that the Chinese had annexed their territory earlier and there exists a fear of losing more land to illegal migration by Chinese, particularly in the East. China\u2019s geopolitical ambition is to seek global supremacy. In this quest, China will not hesitate to oppose Russia if situation so demands and also Russia would be a junior partner in the relationship. In the recent months, disagreements have already begun to appear and the intensity of their engagement has reduced somewhat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indian Concern<\/u>. India is concerned about Russia\u2019s China embrace, encompassing\u00a0close political, economic and defence cooperation. India\u2019s is also apprehensive about their technology and intelligence sharing and more importantly the relationship turning into military alliance.\u00a0Russia\u2019s downplaying or ignoring China\u2019s display of coercive military pressure against India was further cause of concern for India. India is hoping that with greater interaction, Russia would show greater understanding of India\u2019s security concerns arising from China\u2019s aggression in its territories.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Russia \u2013 Pakistan Relations: Implications for India<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n

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Pic Courtesy: The Quint<\/span><\/p>\n

Pakistan Importance.<\/u> Pakistan\u2019s geographic location is unique in the sense that it gets involved in one way or the other in geo political dynamics of all the Western and Asian areas. It is also considered as a pivot state in Eurasia. Pakistan\u2019s economic importance in the region has become a bit more pronounced after the BRI and it has a definite say in Afghanistan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russia – Pakistan Relations.<\/u> During cold war periods Russia and Pakistan were considered to be rivals. In recent times the relations between the two have undergone a transformation due to new power alignments and strategic realities in the changing Geopolitics of the world. Russian tilt towards Pakistan is natural because of its influence over Taliban in Afghanistan where, interests of Russia, China and Pak converge. De-hyphenation by USA and withdrawal of financial support from USA and Saudi Arabia has also made Pakistan look up to other sources like China and Russia. Although Russian leadership seems to be conveying openness for any cooperation with Pakistan but it seems to be marriage of convenience for both.<\/span><\/p>\n

Defence Cooperation<\/u>. An upsurge is visible in the Russia-Pakistan defence cooperation in terms of increased number of exchange of military delegations, signing of defence cooperation agreement, increased participation of military exercises and sale of military arms and defence equipment. The military exercises seem to have a flavour of joint counter-terrorism drills\u00a0with sharing perspectives on military tactics and strategic doctrines related to it. Russia is also now\u00a0Pakistan\u2019s second-largest defence supplier but maintains that the sale of military arms to Pakistan is purely to assist it in its fight against terrorism.<\/span><\/p>\n

Economic Cooperation.<\/u> Russia has promised investment in Pakistan\u2019s energy sector, pipeline project, coal power plants and construction of a railway tracks. Prospects of large scale economic engagement between Russia and Pakistan are limited because of Pakistan\u2019s poor financial situation, deep involvement of China in Pakistan and India\u2019s sensitivities.<\/span><\/p>\n

Effect on India<\/u>. Pakistan is almost a client state of China. Russian involvement in Pakistan will be limited to the extent China allows it to be. Russia\u2019s seeming unwillingness to join the Indian effort to isolate Pakistan on terrorism is attributable to this trend.\u00a0 China is not likely to loosen its grip on Pakistan in the matters of defence equipment and economic activities. Further, India\u2019s \u201csensitivities\u201d regarding Pakistan and China further restricts Russia from accelerating the partnership. US involvement in the geopolitical environment is another factor wherein it tries to portray that Russia is sliding away to join the Pakistan-China axis and swapping Pakistan for India. While Russia tries to maintain a balance in its relations with both Pakistan and India, some clouds have undoubtedly cast a shadow on the India-Russia relationship in recent years. India needs to keep a close watch on China, Russia and Pakistan relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Balancing Russia & US<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n

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The equations or dynamics of cold war were different. In today\u2019s complex geopolitical environment, the pursuit of national strategic interests dictate alignments for specific objectives. India cannot continue its foreign policy within the traditional framework of non-alignment. Multi alignment is perhaps a better option and seems to be a natural evolution of India\u2019s foreign policy – from non-alignment to strategic autonomy to multiple alignment. Multi-alignment is simultaneous management of several close bilateral engagements. It can also be termed as strategic equidistance. Multi alignment is a real challenge and as difficult as being nonaligned.<\/span><\/p>\n

India is trying to find its strategic relevance in the region and its \u201cmulti-alignment\u201d policy is driven by this perspective. India\u2019s foreign policy choices are dictated by the existing situation and not with a view to slight Russia at the cost of befriending the US. Deception is too harsh a word to describe it. The current need is to maintain a mature view of India-Russia and India \u2013 US relations, considering objective realities of today.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Russia feels abandoned<\/span><\/span> and has been displeased with India befriending US, in spite of repeated diplomatic assurances that US India ties were not at the cost of Russia India ties. To reset the important bilateral ties with Russia is an arduous task and would require astute statesmanship.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Value additions and Comments are most welcome<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

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References:<\/span><\/p>\n

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  1. https:\/\/www.lowyinstitute.org\/the-interpreter\/india-must-be-realistic-about-russia-relations<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. https:\/\/theprint.in\/opinion\/india-russia-less-useful-to-each-other-now-disagreements-will-only-grow\/621264\/<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. https:\/\/www.orfonline.org\/research\/india-russia-ties-in-a-changing-world-order-in-pursuit-of-a-special-strategic-partnership-56877\/<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2020\/12\/india-russia-relations-face-more-trouble\/<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. https:\/\/www.sundayguardianlive.com\/opinion\/isnt-yet-time-write-obituary-india-russia-ties<\/span><\/li>\n
  6. https:\/\/indianembassy-moscow.gov.in\/70-years-of-india-russia-relations-a-historic-milestone.php<\/span><\/li>\n
  7. https:\/\/thewire.in\/diplomacy\/indias-multi-alignment-strategy-us-russia-china-pakistan-quad-rcep<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n
  8. https:\/\/southasianvoices.org\/year-in-review-multialignment-and-indian-foreign-policy-in-2019\/<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n
  9. https:\/\/www.asianage.com\/books\/100120\/from-non-alignment-to-multi-alignment.html<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

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    Russia – China relations: Indian Concerns Pic courtesy:\u00a0 The Economic Times Russia \u2013 China Relations. Genesis of Russia China relations lies in their mutual needs. Post break up of erstwhile USSR financial health of Russia was not too good. China in neighbourhood, had the money but needed defence technology especially aviation related. This mutual need … <\/p>\n

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