{"id":2781,"date":"2021-03-15T07:19:02","date_gmt":"2021-03-15T01:49:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=2781"},"modified":"2024-12-27T15:33:54","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T10:03:54","slug":"future-conflict-scenarios-implications-for-iaf-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2021\/03\/15\/future-conflict-scenarios-implications-for-iaf-part-1\/","title":{"rendered":"72: FUTURE CONFLICT SCENARIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR IAF (PART 1)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #000080;\"><strong><u>Changes in warfare and implications<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003366;\">The contours of conventional war \/ conflict are changing and become more ambiguous and wide<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #0000ff;\">Long drawn out conventional wars are a thing of the past due to diminished international acceptability of capture of territory &amp; collateral damage and also increasing economic costs.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #3366ff;\">Terrorism, piracy and sectarian conflicts are extending the boundaries to grey zone, hybrid, sub-conventional conflicts in the \u2018no peace, no war\u2019 realm.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008080;\">The battle space for war fighting is expanding (into multi domains) with compression of time.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #333399;\">Future conflicts are likely to be short, swift and intense engagements against a nuclear backdrop.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #3366ff;\">Future security challenges will be more and more complex, multi-dimensional and non-traditional in both kinetic and non-kinetic form.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #666699;\">Success would lie on the ability to act in the shortest possible time, inside the decision cycle of the adversary demanding very high level of real time situational awareness.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\"><strong><u>Regional \/ Local Scenario<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">Geopolitically Asia is the most war risk-prone region of the world.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">India\u2019s shares 6,917 kilometres of live borders with two nuclear armed hostile.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #003300;\">In recent past, the region has gone through frequent trigger incidents like Galwan Valley encroachment across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Doklam face-off with China, and frequent terror attack by terrorist groups based in Pakistan. These events could lead to a war or conflict.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\"><strong><u>China<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">China has emerged as a major regional power with aspiration to be a global power.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff6600;\">China\u2019s desire to dominate Asia and finally the world has implications for India.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800000;\">India\u2019s relations with china are changing from cooperative to competitive to combative.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">China also continues to enhance its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean Region.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">Simultaneously China is investing in the Indian Ocean littoral countries to achieve a foot-hold and extend influence.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993300;\">China would like to keep India off-balance.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">China follows the philosophy of systems destruction warfare (i.e. disruption, paralyses or destruction of enemy operational systems).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008000;\"><strong><u>Pakistan<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #339966;\">Pakistan remains a security threat in all dimensions i.e. nuclear, conventional and sub-conventional.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #808000;\">Pakistan continues to be the epicentre of world terror. Pakistan would continue to use non-state actors to maintain a situation of unrest.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #008080;\">Asymmetric warfare will remain an instrument of its state policy. Pakistan\u2019s strategy would continue to be wage proxy war and in the event of an escalation, use the nuclear card.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\"><strong><u>China \u2013 Pak Collusive Challenge<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">Chin\u2019s increasing economic and political ties with Pakistan have an influence on the geostrategic balance of the region.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #666699;\">China has strategic interests in using Pakistani territory to reach West Asia and Africa for trade and geo-strategic positioning. It has invested in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that connects Xinjiang region in West China to the China-built-and-operated Gwadar port near Gulf of Hormuz.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #800080;\">China has helped Pakistan militarily including help to acquire technologies for its nuclear weapons and missile program.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #993366;\">In case of a conflict between India and Pakistan, China would posture along the northern and eastern border to keep the Indian military might divided and would also use its influence in the international forums to bring about a ceasefire at the earliest.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #666699;\">Pakistan openly boasts of collusive support from China in case of a war with India.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: #ff0000;\">To be continued&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2021\/03\/16\/future-conflict-scenario-implications-for-iaf-part-2\/\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: #008000;\">Link to Part 2\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: #000080;\">comments and value additions are most welcome.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Changes in warfare and implications The contours of conventional war \/ conflict are changing and become more ambiguous and wide Long drawn out conventional wars are a thing of the past due to diminished international acceptability of capture of territory &amp; collateral damage and also increasing economic costs. Terrorism, piracy and sectarian conflicts are extending &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2021\/03\/15\/future-conflict-scenarios-implications-for-iaf-part-1\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;72: FUTURE CONFLICT SCENARIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR IAF (PART 1)&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77,5,19,25,75,78,56,28,1],"tags":[6,24,47,8,38,79,35,52,30,120,40],"class_list":["post-2781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aircraft","category-airpower","category-article","category-china","category-iaf","category-military-capability","category-pakistan","category-technology","category-uncategorized","tag-airpower","tag-china","tag-defence-services","tag-iaf","tag-indian-air-force","tag-military-capability","tag-pakistan","tag-strategic-thinking","tag-technology","tag-warwarfare","tag-world-order"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2781"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2781\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8544,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2781\/revisions\/8544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}