{"id":2571,"date":"2021-02-13T22:03:35","date_gmt":"2021-02-13T16:33:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/?p=2571"},"modified":"2024-12-27T15:29:38","modified_gmt":"2024-12-27T09:59:38","slug":"china-through-usa-prism-indo-china-perspective-part-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2021\/02\/13\/china-through-usa-prism-indo-china-perspective-part-4\/","title":{"rendered":"50: CHINA THROUGH USA PRISM (Indo \u2013 China Perspective) Part &#8211; 4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>CHINA : NUCLEAR CAPABILITY BUILDING<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Annual Report to US Congress.<\/u> Office of the US secretary of defense recently published the unclassified part of the annual report on military and security developments involving the people\u2019s republic of china. The US Department of Defense (DoD) has been providing this report for the last 20 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Excerpts from US Report.<\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">China\u2019s strategic ambitions, evolving view of the security landscape, and concerns over survivability are driving significant changes to the size, capabilities, and readiness of its nuclear forces.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">China\u2019s nuclear forces will significantly evolve over the next decade as it modernizes, diversifies, and increases the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Over the next decade, China\u2019s nuclear warhead stockpile\u2014currently estimated to be in the low- 200s\u2014is projected to at least double in size as China expands and modernizes its nuclear forces.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">China is pursuing a \u201cnuclear triad\u201d with the development of a nuclear capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) and improving its ground and sea-based nuclear capabilities.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">New developments in 2019 further suggest that China intends to increase the peacetime readiness of its nuclear forces by moving to a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture with an expanded silo- based force.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em><u>Comments<\/u><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Ambition<\/u>. China has a global ambition and has clearly articulated her long term vision for improving her strategic capability. Towards this aim she has developed a large scale weapons research, development and manufacturing capability including nuclear weapons. China is modernising and expanding her nuclear arsenal, and is developing the nuclear triad, made up of new land and sea-based missiles and nuclear-capable aircraft.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #003366; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Displaying Nuclear Prowess.<\/u> China now publicly <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">displays its nuclear forces more frequently as compared to the past but releases little information about the force numbers or future development plans<\/span>.\u00a0 China revealed its most advanced nuclear weapon DF \u2013 41 at the National Day military parade held in Beijing on October 1, 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Focus.<\/u>\u00a0 It seems the focus of the country&#8217;s nuclear modernization efforts is keeping US in mind. <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">China is striving for a nuclear parity with the United States and Russia<\/span>. \u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">China feels that it is far ahead of India in this field.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #008080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Numbers<\/u>. DOD\u2019s estimate of the number of nuclear warheads in the Chinese nuclear weapons stockpile is about <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">200<\/span>s. Some analysts feel that this number could be approximately <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">320<\/span>. China also feels that the requirement is about <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">1,000<\/span> nuclear warheads and at least 100 DF 41 strategic missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #333399; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Delivery system.<\/u> China feels <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">nuclear triad<\/span> &#8211; nuclear weapon launch capabilities from sea, land and air &#8211; is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">necessary<\/span>. Development of JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, Type 096 nuclear-powered strategic submarine and H-20 strategic stealth bomber are focused towards this aim.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #003366; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Land-based missiles<\/u><em>.<\/em> There are reports of increases in the number of ICBMs, IRBMs, and GLCMs. <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">The number of missile bases and the number of missile launchers located at each base are increasing<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #333399; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>ICBMs<\/u>. It is estimated that China has approximately 100 ICBMs. Reports also indicate that the ICBM (DF-5B) can carry up to five multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #3366ff; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>IRBMs and MRBMs<\/u><em>. <\/em>China has a significant force of IRBMs and MRBMs that include both nuclear and conventional versions. It is estimated to be about 350 launchers with many more missiles. But it is likely that only a smaller number of these launchers are assigned nuclear warheads. This includes the DF-21, of which two of four versions (DF-21A and DF-21E) are nuclear, and the DF-26, which is dual-capable. <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">This mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities in the Chinese IRBM and MRBM missile force presents a potential complication. Possibility of launch preparations of a conventional missile could be misinterpreted as an impending nuclear launch<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Sea-based missiles<\/u><em>. <\/em>\u00a0<em>\u00a0<\/em>China has six Jin-class (Type 094) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Each of China\u2019s SSBNs can carry up to 12 JL-2 SLBMs, each capable of carrying a single warhead. <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">China is developing a next-generation SSBNs\u2013\u2013known as the Type 096\u2013\u2013that will carry a new SLBM (JL-3).<\/span> The new missile will have an extended range estimated to be over 10,000km).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Air Delivery system<\/u><u>.<\/u> It has been reported that <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">PLAAF has been \u201creassigned\u201d a nuclear role<\/span> with H-6N and China\u2019s future strategic stealth bomber H-20 as dual-capable delivery. The H-6N has a modified fuselage that could carry the two air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) platforms.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #666699; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Nuclear Policy.<\/u> China adopted <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">No First Use nuclear policy<\/span> well before India in 1964. China has long maintained it would never launch its nuclear weapons first, that it would only fire them after having been attacked. There is no stated change in the policy as her defense white paper of 2019 puts it, \u201cChina is always committed to a nuclear policy of no first use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances, and not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones unconditionally.\u201d However, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">latest developments indicate otherwise<\/span>. Deployment of nuclear triad, increase in number of weapon stockpile, fielding of a large variety of modern, nuclear-capable missiles (of various ranges, some fitted with penetration aids and multiple independently targetable warheads) and investment in a new, silo-based intercontinental ballistic missile\u2014typically considered a first-strike weapon indicate preparation for far more than retaliation and towards first strike capability.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Nuclear Doctrine<\/u>. China\u2019s nuclear modernization also seems to indicate <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">a shift from its longstanding minimalist force posture<\/span>. There is an increasing evidence that China is also <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">moving towards a Launch-On-Warning (LOW) posture<\/span>. A LOW posture requires mating of warheads to the missiles. This could imply that everything else is ready and that the warhead is stored nearby so that it could be mated very quickly if necessary.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #008080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Nuclear Arms race<\/u>. China claims that she has no intention of launching a nuclear arms race, but moderately expanding its nuclear arsenal in both quantity and quality in line with the demands of national security. However, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">increase in its arsenal is bound to create an arms race in the region.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #333399; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><u>Treaty \/ Arms Control.<\/u> Efforts are being made towards arresting the arms race. It is being proposed that China join the four other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council at a summit to initiate a new round of arms control talks. China is being encouraged to make a three-way agreement with Russia, and the United States to limit nuclear weapons. China has previously <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">rejected participating in a trilateral nuclear arms<\/span> deal on the grounds that its forces are too small.\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">It wants to come at par with the other two and then speak from position of equal strength<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em><u>References<\/u><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><a style=\"color: #800080;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.indiandefencereview.com\/news\/nuclear-capability-of-india-and-china\/\">http:\/\/www.indiandefencereview.com\/news\/nuclear-capability-of-india-and-china\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em><u><a style=\"color: #800080;\" href=\"https:\/\/theprint.in\/defence\/india-and-china-increased-their-nuclear-weapons-stockpile-over-last-year-swedish-think-tank\/441728\/\">https:\/\/theprint.in\/defence\/india-and-china-increased-their-nuclear-weapons-stockpile-over-last-year-swedish-think-tank\/441728\/<\/a><\/u><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em><u><a style=\"color: #800080;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theweek.in\/news\/world\/2020\/08\/19\/china-feels-indias-nuclear-weapons-programme-driven-by-prestige-us-report.html\">https:\/\/www.theweek.in\/news\/world\/2020\/08\/19\/china-feels-indias-nuclear-weapons-programme-driven-by-prestige-us-report.html<\/a><\/u><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em><u><a style=\"color: #800080;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thequint.com\/voices\/opinion\/china-us-nuclear-weapons-warhead-russia-treaty\">https:\/\/www.thequint.com\/voices\/opinion\/china-us-nuclear-weapons-warhead-russia-treaty<\/a><\/u><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em><u><a style=\"color: #800080;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/content\/1187775.shtml\">https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/content\/1187775.shtml<\/a><\/u><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em><u><a style=\"color: #800080;\" href=\"https:\/\/fas.org\/blogs\/security\/2020\/09\/the-pentagons-2020-china-report\/\">https:\/\/fas.org\/blogs\/security\/2020\/09\/the-pentagons-2020-china-report\/<\/a><\/u><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #800080; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\"><em><u>https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2020\/03\/13\/china-nuclear-arms-race-mystery\/<\/u><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; color: #ff0000;\">Comments and value additions are most welcome<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #993300; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt;\">Also check out earlier published articles in this series.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CHINA : NUCLEAR CAPABILITY BUILDING Annual Report to US Congress. Office of the US secretary of defense recently published the unclassified part of the annual report on military and security developments involving the people\u2019s republic of china. The US Department of Defense (DoD) has been providing this report for the last 20 years. Excerpts from &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/2021\/02\/13\/china-through-usa-prism-indo-china-perspective-part-4\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;50: CHINA THROUGH USA PRISM (Indo \u2013 China Perspective) Part &#8211; 4&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,19,25,68,75,78],"tags":[6,24,47,38,52,30,45,40],"class_list":["post-2571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-airpower","category-article","category-china","category-geo-politics","category-iaf","category-military-capability","tag-airpower","tag-china","tag-defence-services","tag-indian-air-force","tag-strategic-thinking","tag-technology","tag-usa","tag-world-order"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2571"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2571\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8522,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2571\/revisions\/8522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/55nda.com\/blogs\/anil-khosla\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}