570: DRAGON TIGHTENS ITS GRIP: CHINA’S MILITARY PRESENCE GROWS IN LARUNG GAR

 

Pic Courtesy Net

 

My Article published on the EurasianTimes Website

 

Recent reports indicate a significant increase in Chinese military presence at Larung Gar Buddhist Academy, the world’s largest Tibetan Buddhist study center in Serthar County, Karze, within Tibet’s traditional Kham province, now part of Sichuan Province.  On December 20, 2024, approximately 400 Chinese military personnel were deployed to the academy, accompanied by helicopter surveillance, signalling intensified monitoring of the religious site. In addition to the military deployment, Chinese authorities reportedly plan to implement new regulations at Larung Gar in 2025. These measures include limiting residency for monks and nuns to 15 years, a significant departure from the traditional lifelong commitment to religious practice, and requiring mandatory registration for all religious practitioners. This move could potentially lead to increased surveillance and control over the religious community. There are also plans to reduce the number of residents, with reports indicating that Chinese students are being asked to leave the institution.

 

Larung Gar had previously faced crackdowns, notably in 2001 and between 2016 and 2017, when thousands of residential structures were demolished and numerous practitioners were forcibly evicted. These actions significantly reduced the academy’s population. The recent military deployment and impending regulations have raised concerns among Tibetan communities and human rights organisations, who view these actions as part of a broader strategy to suppress religious freedom and Tibetan cultural identity. This strategy, which includes measures such as mass demolitions, forced evictions, and increased surveillance, is seen as an attempt to weaken the influence of Tibetan Buddhism and promote the dominance of the Chinese state. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, with calls for protecting religious freedoms and preserving Tibetan cultural heritage.

 

Historical Significance of Larung Gar

 

Tibet, often called the “Roof of the World,” is unique in global spiritual and cultural heritage. Its monasteries, prayer flags, and serene landscapes symbolise centuries of spiritual devotion and resilience. Among these sacred sites, Larung Gar, a sprawling Buddhist monastic community nestled in the remote Garze Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, has emerged as a beacon of Tibetan culture and religious practice.

 

Founded in 1980 by the late Khenpo Jigme Phuntsok, Larung Gar was established as a center for Tibetan Buddhist education and meditation. Unlike traditional monasteries, it welcomed monks, nuns, and lay practitioners from diverse backgrounds, fostering a unique blend of inclusivity and scholastic rigour that is now under threat. Over the decades, Larung Gar grew into the world’s largest Buddhist institute, with thousands of residents and visitors drawn to its spiritual teachings.

 

For Tibetans, Larung Gar is more than just a religious site; it symbolises cultural identity and resilience. The institute has played a crucial role in preserving the Tibetan language, traditions, and spiritual practices amidst external pressures, and the potential loss of this cultural heritage is deeply felt. Its vibrant community and serene surroundings embody the harmonious coexistence of spirituality and daily life.

 

Sinification as Chinese Statecraft

 

Sinification, the process of assimilating non-Han ethnic groups into Chinese cultural and political life, is a core component of China’s statecraft. Historically, this policy has been employed to consolidate power, integrate peripheral regions, and create a unified national identity. At its heart, Sinification seeks to promote the dominance of Han Chinese culture, language, and values across the diverse ethnic mosaic of China.

 

Historical Perspective. The concept of Sinification is rooted in China’s imperial history. Emperors of the Qin and Han Dynasties (221 BCE–220 CE) expanded China’s borders to include non-Han territories, such as Tibet, Mongolia, and Xinjiang, often through military conquest and colonisation. As these regions were integrated into the Chinese empire, local populations were encouraged or forced to adopt Chinese customs, language, and governance.

 

Revival. In the 20th and 21st centuries, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has revitalised Sinification as a statecraft strategy. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the policy has renewed urgency, particularly in ethnically distinct regions like Tibet and Xinjiang. The CCP’s current approach is multifaceted, involving economic development, cultural integration, and political control to align minority populations with mainstream Chinese identity.

 

Forced Assimilation. Sinification is often framed as a means of fostering national unity and economic development. By promoting the Chinese language and culture, the state aims to create a shared sense of belonging and erase historical divisions between Han and non-Han groups. This is evident in the promotion of Mandarin Chinese as the lingua franca and the construction of Chinese schools and cultural institutions in minority regions. China claims these measures are essential for cohesion and stability in a country with diverse ethnic and religious groups.

 

Identity Erasure and Assertion. However, the policy also raises profound questions about identity. For many non-Han groups, Sinification is perceived as a form of cultural erasure, undermining indigenous languages, traditions, and religious practices. The process often includes the relocation of Han Chinese citizens into minority areas, the suppression of native languages, and the promotion of Chinese cultural norms. In this context, Sinification becomes a tool not just for integration but for asserting Han Chinese dominance and defining what it means to be “Chinese.”

 

Rights Violation. For many minority communities, particularly Tibetans, Uighurs, and Mongols, this form of assimilation is seen as a violation of their cultural and religious rights. In Tibet, the destruction of monasteries, the restriction on Buddhist practices, and the imposition of the Chinese language in schools are all part of efforts to assimilate the population. Similarly, in Xinjiang, the Uighur Muslim population faces forced labour, mass surveillance, and the imposition of Chinese cultural norms, all of which threaten their distinct identity.

 

Resistance. Resistance to Sinification is a defining feature of its history. For many ethnic minorities, the push to preserve their cultural autonomy is seen as a response to the state’s encroachment on their way of life. In Tibet and Xinjiang, protests, both violent and nonviolent, have occurred in opposition to the erosion of religious and cultural practices. Tibetan Buddhist monks, Uighur Muslims, and other ethnic minorities continue to advocate for greater autonomy and the right to preserve their heritage.

 

China’s Policy in Tibet and Militarisation of Larung Gar

 

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has maintained a contentious relationship with Tibet since its annexation in 1950. Framing Tibet as an integral part of Chinese territory, the PRC has implemented policies aimed at assimilation and control. These measures include restrictions on religious practices, promoting Mandarin over Tibetan, and infrastructural projects that often undermine local traditions.

 

Beijing views Tibet’s governance as a territorial and ideological issue. The region’s strategic location, rich natural resources, and potential as a geopolitical buffer make it a priority. However, the persistence of Tibetan resistance within and outside Tibet challenges the PRC’s narrative of harmonious integration.

 

The growing military presence in Larung Gar is a microcosm of broader trends in Tibet. Over the past decade, Chinese authorities have intensified their control over religious institutions, citing concerns about separatism and social stability. In Larung Gar, this has manifested through mass demolitions, forced evictions, surveillance, and military deployments.

 

Mass Demolitions and Forced Evictions. In 2016, Chinese authorities launched a large-scale campaign to downsize Larung Gar, citing overcrowding and safety concerns. Bulldozers razed thousands of homes, displacing monks, nuns, and lay practitioners. Estimates suggest that over 4,000 residents were forced to leave, with many relocated to distant areas under strict surveillance. For those evicted, the loss was not merely physical but deeply emotional and spiritual. Larung Gar had been a sanctuary for many, where they could pursue spiritual growth and community. The demolitions disrupted this ecosystem, creating an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty.

 

Surveillance and Military Presence. In addition to physical restructuring, the Chinese government has ramped up surveillance in Larung Gar. High-tech cameras, facial recognition systems, and checkpoints have transformed the area into a heavily monitored zone. Military personnel conduct regular patrols, further intimidating the remaining residents.

 

This militarisation reflects Beijing’s broader strategy in Tibet, where technological and physical control mechanisms are used to suppress dissent and enforce ideological conformity. Larung Gar, once a hub of spiritual freedom, now operates under constant scrutiny.

 

Implications

 

The Chinese government’s actions in Larung Gar profoundly affect Tibetan culture and religion. Tibetan Buddhism, which emphasises non-violence, compassion, and self-realisation, starkly contrasts the state’s authoritarian approach. By targeting Larung Gar, Beijing is not only undermining a religious institution but also eroding a cornerstone of Tibetan identity.

 

Loss of Autonomy. Larung Gar’s forced restructuring represents a direct assault on the autonomy of Tibetan religious institutions. Decisions about monastic administration, community size, and daily activities are now subject to government approval, stripping the institute of its independence.

 

Cultural Assimilation. The destruction of homes and the dispersal of residents disrupt the transmission of Tibetan cultural and religious knowledge. Monastic education, which relies heavily on the community’s cohesion, has been severely impacted. Furthermore, the promotion of Mandarin and state-approved curricula over traditional Tibetan teachings accelerates cultural assimilation.

 

Psychological Impact. For many Tibetans, the militarisation of Larung Gar is a source of profound psychological distress. The presence of armed personnel in a sacred space symbolises the state’s disregard for their spiritual values. The fear of surveillance and the loss of communal bonds compounds this emotional toll.

 

Geopolitical Dimensions. The situation in Larung Gar has not gone unnoticed on the global stage. Tibet’s plight is a flashpoint in international human rights discourse, drawing attention from governments, NGOs, and advocacy groups. However, geopolitical considerations often complicate responses.

 

International Reactions. Countries such as the United States and members of the European Union have expressed concerns about human rights violations in Tibet, including the militarisation of Larung Gar. However, their responses are often tempered by economic and strategic interests in maintaining relations with China.

 

Strategic Implications for China. The militarisation of Larung Gar aligns with Beijing’s broader efforts to secure its western borders. By tightening control over Tibet, China aims to prevent unrest that could spill over into other regions or embolden separatist movements. However, this strategy risks fuelling further resentment and international criticism.

 

Conclusion. The growing military presence in Larung Gar represents a critical juncture for Tibet’s cultural and spiritual heritage. As the Chinese government tightens its grip, the world must grapple with the implications of this erosion of a sacred space. By standing in solidarity with Tibetan communities and advocating for their rights, we can honour the resilience of a people whose spirit continues to inspire across borders and generations.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

Link to the article on the website:-

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/chine-deploys-troops-choppers-in-new/

 

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References and credits

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References:-

ANI, “China deploys hundreds of troops to Larung Gar, intensifies religious crackdown in Tibet”,

https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/china-deploys-hundreds-of-troops-to-larung-gar-intensifies-religious-crackdown-in-tibet20241228142304/

  1. Central Tibetan Administration, “Tibet’s Larung Gar Buddhist Academy Faces New Restrictions as Military Presence Increases”, 27 December 2024
  1. TIMESOFINDIA, “China deploys 400 troops. Choppers at Larung Gar in Tibet”, 28 Dec 2024.
  1. Elliot Sperling, “Larung Gar: China’s Expansion into Tibetan Religious Spaces”, Journal of Asian Studies.
  1. James Millward, “China’s Military Footprint in Tibet: The Expanding Role of the PLA” International Security.
  1. Anne-Marie Blondeau, “Sacred Spaces Under Siege: Tibetan Religious Sites in the Age of Chinese Military Expansion” Asian Ethnology
  1. Report, “China’s Crackdown on Tibetan Buddhism: Religious Freedom Under Siege” – Human Rights Watch, 2016
  1. Report, “The Military Presence in Tibet: China’s Use of Force in the Himalayan Region” – Amnesty International, 2017
  1. Tsering Shakya, “The Dragon in the Land of Snows: A History of Modern Tibet Since 1947”.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

569: DURGA AND KALI: INDIA’S DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS PROGRAM

Pic courtesy net

 

India has long recognised the importance of technological superiority in modern warfare. With adversaries like China and Pakistan making significant strides in advanced defence systems, India has embarked on ambitious programs to achieve strategic dominance. Among these initiatives, the Durga and Kali programs are pivotal projects, focusing on Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs) and advanced electronic warfare systems. These programs have underscored India’s commitment to Indigenous defence technologies and showcased its resolve to counter emerging threats in the evolving warfare landscape.

 

Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs). Directed Energy Weapons represent a paradigm shift in military technology. Unlike conventional weapon systems that rely on kinetic energy or explosives, DEWs employ highly focused energy—such as lasers, microwaves, or particle beams—to neutralise targets. The benefits of DEWs include:-

 

    • Speed of Light Engagement. DEWs operate at the speed of light, offering unparalleled response times.

 

    • Precision Targeting. These weapons minimise collateral damage by precisely targeting enemy assets.

 

    • Cost Efficiency. Once operational, DEWs can neutralise multiple threats at a fraction of the cost of conventional interceptors.

 

    • They can be deployed for missile defence, counter-drone operations, electronic warfare, and anti-satellite missions.

 

India’s Programs

 

Durga Program (Directionally Unrestricted Ray-Gun Array). The Durga program, an acronym for “Directionally Unrestricted Ray-Gun Array,” focuses on developing laser-based directed energy weapons. Initiated by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), this program aligns with India’s vision to create a robust, multi-layered defence architecture. The program aims to develop laser systems capable of intercepting and destroying enemy missiles during various stages of their flight. The DEWs would be integrated with India’s existing Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) systems to enhance interception capabilities. It would also address the growing threat of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) by deploying tactical laser weapons to neutralise the enemy drones that pose risks to critical infrastructure and military assets. The developed weapons would be integrated on land, air, and sea-based platforms, ensuring operational flexibility across diverse terrains and scenarios. Open media reports suggest that prototypes of laser-based DEWs under the Durga program are undergoing testing. India is exploring power levels ranging from 10 to 100 kilowatts, sufficient for tactical and strategic applications.

 

Kali Program (Kilo Ampere Linear Injector). The Kali program, initiated by the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) and supported by DRDO, began as a scientific project to study high-energy particle acceleration. Over time, its potential as a defence tool was realised, and the project evolved to explore applications in electronic warfare and non-lethal weaponry. The Kali system generates powerful electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) capable of disabling electronic systems. These pulses can disrupt radar, communication, and missile guidance systems. The program also explores the use of particle beams for neutralising enemy assets. These beams can deliver immense energy to destroy or disable targets without explosives. The potential applications of these systems include disabling of enemy satellites. The Kali program has enormous potential for integration into India’s electronic warfare systems. For instance, it could be deployed as a non-lethal weapon to incapacitate enemy equipment without causing physical destruction. Its scalability makes it suitable for tactical operations and strategic deterrence.

 

Strategic Significance.

 

Countering Threats. India’s geographical location presents unique security challenges. With China advancing in hypersonic missile technology and Pakistan enhancing its nuclear arsenal, India needs innovative solutions to maintain a strategic edge. The Durga and Kali programs provide critical capabilities to counter these threats effectively.

 

Enhancing Indigenous Capabilities. Under the “Make in India” initiative, the government prioritises self-reliance on defence technologies. The Durga and Kali programs embody this vision by leveraging domestic talent and resources. Collaborations with Indian academic institutions and private firms ensure these projects remain at the forefront of innovation.

 

Strengthening Deterrence. Developing advanced DEWs and electronic warfare systems is a strong deterrent against potential adversaries. India reinforces its position as a formidable regional military power by demonstrating the ability to neutralise threats in real time.

 

Supporting Space Security. As space becomes an increasingly contested domain, the Durga and Kali programs could play a pivotal role in safeguarding India’s interests. By integrating DEWs into its space strategy, India can protect its satellites and ensure the reliability of its communication and navigation networks.

 

Challenges: The journey towards developing Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs) has its hurdles. Ensuring sufficient power output, operational reliability, and effective integration into existing defence platforms are complex tasks. The research and development of DEWs and high-energy systems require significant investment and careful balancing with other defence priorities. These challenges underscore the importance and complexity of India’s defence technology initiatives.

 

In an era where technological innovation defines military power, the Durga and Kali programs are poised to shape the future of India’s defence strategy. These initiatives aim to equip India with the tools to address modern security challenges by focusing on cutting-edge technologies like directed energy weapons and high-energy pulse systems. The Durga program, for instance, has made significant strides in developing laser-based DEWs, with prototypes currently undergoing testing. On the other hand, the Kali program has successfully transitioned from a scientific project to a defence tool, exploring applications in electronic warfare and non-lethal weaponry. While significant hurdles remain, the progress achieved thus far reflects the nation’s determination to become self-sufficient in advanced military technology.

 

India’s Durga and Kali programs represent a bold step towards redefining its defence capabilities. As these programs mature, they will strengthen India’s defence posture and contribute to a broader strategic vision of self-reliance and technological leadership. In a world where countries like the United States, China, and Russia rapidly advance DEW technology, India must accelerate its efforts to remain competitive in this high-stakes domain. The urgency of this goal is clear, and India’s determination to achieve it is evident in these initiatives.

 

Your valuable comments are most welcome.

 

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References and credits

To all the online sites and channels.

Disclaimer:

Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

References:

  1. Singh, R. (2022). “Directed Energy Weapons in India: Strategic Implications and Challenges.” Strategic Analysis, 46(2), 150–162.
  1. Kumar, S. & Reddy, A. (2021). “Advances in High-Powered Laser Applications for Defense.” Indian Journal of Defense Technology, 17(4), 335–348.
  1. Subramanian, R. (2018). “India’s DRDO and the Quest for Directed Energy Weapons.” Journal of Defence Studies, 12(1), 75–95.
  1. Kelley, A. B. (2017). Directed Energy Weapons: Technologies and Future Applications. Artech House.
  1. Joshi, M. (2020). India’s Strategic Power and Future Warfare. Pentagon Press.
  1. DRDO Annual Report 2022-2023. Defence Research and Development Organisation.
  1. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). (2020). “India’s Emerging Military Technologies.”
  1. Centre for Air Power Studies. (2019). “Lasers and Microwaves in Modern Warfare.”
  1. The Wire. (2022). “Exploring India’s Pursuit of Directed Energy Weapons.” https://thewire.in
  1. Economic Times. (2023). “India’s Defense Research: KALI Laser Systems and Beyond.” https://economictimes.indiatimes.com
  1. Jane’s Defence Weekly. (2023). “India’s Directed Energy Ambitions.” https://www.janes.com

568: CHINA THROUGH THE US PRISM 2024

Pic Coutesy Net

 

The Department of Defence (DoD) of the USA released its annual report to Congress, “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”. The DoD annual report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China charts the course of the PRC’s national, economic, and military strategy and offers insight into the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategy, current capabilities, and activities as well as its future modernisation goals. This report covers security and military developments involving the PRC through early 2024.

 

This is a summary of the 182-page report.

 

UNDERSTANDING THE PRC’S STRATEGY

 

The PRC’s National Strategy. The PRC’s longstanding national strategy is to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049. This strategy determinedly pursues political, social, economic, technological, and military development to increase the PRC’s national power and revise the international order to support the PRC’s governance system and national interests.

 

The PRC’s Foreign Policy. The PRC’s stated foreign policy seeks to reshape the international order into a “community of common destiny” to support its strategy to realise “rejuvenation.” PRC leaders claim their power to shape world events continues to grow, presenting “new strategic opportunities” to create an environment favourable for PRC interests and national rejuvenation.

 

The PRC’s Economic Policy. The PRC acknowledges internal and external challenges that complicated its economic recovery and growth in 2023. For 2024, the PRC plans to leverage perceived favourable factors in the PRC’s long-term growth trajectory while mitigating risks to economic stability. The PRC’s ongoing military modernisation objectives are commensurate with and part of its broader national development aspirations to invest heavily in technological self-sufficiency and concentrate on advanced manufacturing.

 

The PRC’s Defence Policy and Military Strategy. In 2023, the PRC’s stated defence policy remained oriented toward advancing its sovereignty, security, and development interests while emphasising a more significant global role for itself. Beijing has demonstrated an increasing willingness to use military coercion and inducements to achieve these aims.

 

PLA FORCES AND CAPABILITIES

 

The PLA’s Modernisation and Reform. The PLA has sought to modernise its capabilities and improve its proficiencies across all warfare domains to become a joint force capable of the full range of land, air, and maritime as well as nuclear, space, counter space, electronic warfare, and cyberspace operations. Despite its progress, the force still has significant deficiencies, including commander proficiency, long-distance logistics, and urban warfare. In 2023, the PLA continued to adjust its military structures, field modern indigenous systems, build readiness, and strengthen its competency to conduct joint operations.

 

PLA Army (PLAA). The PLAA continues its decades-long effort to modernise equipment and focus on combined arms and joint training to become a world-class military by 2049. The PLAA demonstrated long-range joint fire capabilities during the April 2023 JOINT SWORD exercise.

 

PLA Navy (PLAN). Numerically, the PRC has the largest navy in the world, with a battle force of over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants. The PLAN is composed mainly of modern multi-mission ships and submarines. In 2023, the PLAN continued to grow its ability to perform missions beyond the First Island Chain (FIC) by conducting the first extended area deployment of its new YUSHEN-class amphibious assault ship and three deployments with CV-17 Shandong to the Philippine Sea, a record number for any PLAN carrier in a calendar year.

 

PLA Air Force (PLAAF). The PLAAF is rapidly modernising and indigenising its aircraft and unmanned aerial systems, matching U.S. standards. In 2023, the PLA transferred significant portions of PLAN shore-based, fixed-wing combat aviation units, facilities, air defence, and radar units to the PLAAF. Given time, this shift will probably enable better command and control over the PRC’s integrated air defence systems and the ground-based air domain awareness radars supporting the PRC’s national integrated air defence system network.

 

PLA Rocket Force (PLARF). The PLARF is advancing its long-term modernisation plans to enhance its “strategic deterrence” capabilities. The PRC is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and require increased nuclear warhead production. The PRC may also explore developing conventionally armed intercontinental-range missile systems. If developed and fielded, such capabilities would enable the PRC to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska.

 

The Former Strategic Support Force (SSF). On 19 April 2024, Beijing announced the dissolution of the SSF and the alignment of its subordinate forces—Aerospace Force (ASF) and Cyberspace Force (CSF)—directly under the CMC. Beijing established a new Information Support Force (ISF) under the CMC to coordinate the management of the military’s networks and communications systems. The updated PLA organisational structure features four theatre-grade services—the PLAA, PLAN, PLAAF, and PLARF—and four deputy-theatre-grade forces or service arms: the ASF, CSF, ISF, and the Joint Logistic Support Force (JLSF).

 

Joint Logistic Support Force (JLSF). JJSF improves joint strategic and campaign-level logistic efficiencies through training and integrating civilian products and services. The JLSF supports multimodal transportation methods to facilitate the movement of PLA forces and equipment for training. During wartime or mobilisation, the JLSF will probably rely on its military representative offices and dispatch centers to route military traffic.

 

PLA Reserves, Paramilitary, and Militia Forces. Interoperability and integration between the PLA, its reserve components, and the PRC’s paramilitary forces continue to grow in scale and sophistication, including the coordination between the PLAN, the China Coast Guard (CCG), and the China Maritime Militia (CMM). The PRC primarily relies on its CCG and CMM for maritime coercion while selectively using the PLAN to provide overwatch to deter rival claimants and quickly respond with force, if necessary. The People’s Armed Police (PAP) is another paramilitary component of the PRC’s armed forces. Its primary missions include internal security, maritime security, and augmentation to the PLA during conflict.

 

Special Operations Forces (SOF). Despite unilateral and multilateral training, all PRC SOF units lack real-world combat experience. PRC SOF does not have a national-level special operations command to oversee all SOF activities. Despite emphasising joint training, theatre commanders have no authority over PAP units, making it challenging to incorporate PAP SOF into PLA training exercises.

 

PLA Capabilities in Development. The PLA remains focused on developing capabilities to provide options for the PRC to dissuade, deter, or, if ordered, defeat third-party intervention in the Indo-Pacific region. The PLA continues developing its capabilities to conduct military operations more profoundly in the Indo-Pacific region and globally. The PLA has undertaken critical structural reforms, introduced a new military doctrine to strengthen joint operations, and is testing joint capabilities in and beyond the FIC.

 

Joint Capabilities for Power Projection. The PLA continues to increase its military capabilities to achieve the PRC’s regional and global security objectives beyond its immediate periphery. The PLA has primarily emphasised power projection capabilities in the maritime domain while its joint operational capabilities beyond the FIC remain limited. Improvements in PLA air and naval systems enable PLA forces to operate further from the PRC for longer.

 

Advancements toward an Informatised and Intelligentised Military. The PLA considers information operations (IO) as a means of achieving information superiority early in a conflict, which is regarded as a critical requirement for the success of any military campaign, and continues to expand the scope and frequency of IO in military exercises. The PRC presents a significant, persistent cyber-enabled espionage and attack threat to an adversary’s military and critical infrastructure systems. The PLA is pursuing next-generation combat capabilities based on its vision of future conflict, which it calls “intelligentised warfare,” defined by the expanded use of AI, quantum computing, big data, and other advanced technologies at every level of warfare.

 

Nuclear Capabilities. Over the next decade, the PRC probably will continue to modernise, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces rapidly. The PLA seeks a larger and more diverse nuclear force comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles to ICBMs with multi-megaton yields to provide it with multiple options on the escalation ladder. In 2023, Beijing continued its rapid nuclear expansion. DoD estimates the PRC has surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads in its stockpile as of mid-2024 and will have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels. The PRC will continue growing its force through at least 2035.

 

OPERATIONAL STRUCTURE AND ACTIVITIES ON THE PRC’S PERIPHERY

 

Theater Commands. The PRC continues to refine military reforms associated with establishing the Eastern, Southern, Western, Northern, and Central Theater Commands. These command structures are organised based on the PRC’s revisionist ambitions and perception of peripheral threats. Under the direction of the CMC, each Theatre Command has operational authority over conventional forces within the theatre.

    • The Eastern Theater Command (ETC) is oriented toward Taiwan and the East China Sea and would likely oversee a Taiwan campaign. In April 2023, the ETC executed the exercise JOINT SWORD, which was aimed at pressuring Taiwan.
    • The Southern Theater Command (STC) is oriented toward the South China Sea (SCS) and Southeast Asia border security. It responds to U.S. freedom of navigation operations in the SCS. It can assume command, as needed, of the overall CCG and CMM ships, enforcing the PRC’s claimed sovereignty and supporting PLA operations. In 2023, STC units conducted multiple live-fire drills and amphibious training events near PRC-occupied features in the SCS and led live-fire drills, including deploying howitzers and counter-battery radars at the PRC-Burma border.
    • The Western Theater Command (WTC) is oriented toward India and counterterrorism missions along the PRC’s Central Asian borders. It focuses on the Xinjiang and Tibet Autonomous Regions, where the CCP perceives a high threat of what it defines as the “three evils” of “separatism, terrorism, and extremism.”
    • The Northern Theater Command (NTC) is oriented toward the Korean Peninsula and Russian border security.
    • The Central Theater Command’s (CTC’s) mission is to defend Beijing while supporting other theater commands.

 

Developments in the Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait. In 2023, the PRC amplified diplomatic, political, and military pressure against Taiwan. Throughout 2023, Beijing continued to erode longstanding norms in and around Taiwan by employing a range of pressure tactics: maintaining a naval presence around Taiwan, increasing crossings into Taiwan’s self-declared centerline and air defence identification zone (ADIZ), and conducting highly publicised major military exercises near Taiwan.

 

Developments in Taiwan’s Ability to Deter the Mainland. Geopolitical events in 2023 continued to accelerate Taiwan’s development of asymmetric concepts and capabilities to counter the PRC’s improving capabilities. Taiwan seeks to balance these asymmetric capabilities with conventional ones that are useful for defending against PRC grey-zone operations in and around its airspace and waters. In 2023, Taiwan continued to improve defensive resilience through a whole-of-society approach.

 

Developments in the Security Situation in the South China Sea. Throughout 2023, tensions between the PRC and the Philippines were notably higher, with the PRC maritime forces ramming and boarding Philippine vessels en route to resupply the Second Thomas Shoal. The PRC has deployed PLAN, CCG, CMM, and civilian ships to advance its illegal maritime claims, such as around the Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Reef, Sabina Shoal, and Sandy Cay/Thitu Island, as well as in response to oil and gas exploration operations by rival claimants in the PRC’s unlawful dashed-line claim.

 

PLA Coercive and Risky Operational Behaviour. Since late 2023, the PLA has reduced U.S. platforms’ coercive and risky air intercepts compared to the previous two years, when the PLA engaged in notably increased aggressive activity, particularly in the East and South China Seas. However, the PLA continues to conduct unsafe manoeuvres near allied forces operating in the region.

 

THE PLA’S GROWING GLOBAL PRESENCE

 

The PLA’s Evolving Mission and Tasks. PLA concepts and capabilities focus on projecting power far from China’s shores. The PLAN’s evolving focus from “offshore defence” to “open seas protection” and the PLAAF’s interest in becoming a “strategic” air force reflect the PLA’s interest in conducting operations beyond the PRC and its immediate periphery. The PLA has embraced its concept of non-war military activities (NWMA) as an effective way to secure the PRC’s global interests with military force while gaining valuable operational experience.

 

PLA Overseas Military Activities. Beijing implements its global counterterrorism strategy to develop the PLA’s operational experience, secure greater access to overseas theaters, and prevent terrorist attacks in China and against PRC citizens and economic projects abroad. Citing its counterterrorism mission, since 2008, the PLA has dispatched more than 40 naval escort task forces (NETFs) to the Gulf of Aden, granting PLAN sailors the necessary experience in overseas operations. In 2017, the PLA established an overseas base in Djibouti. The PRC is the largest peacekeeper contributor among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, having deployed about 50,000 personnel over the last 31 years. The PRC uses international outreach to garner the assistance of partner governments, routinely lobbies foreign partners to extradite alleged Uyghur extremists, and seeks public endorsement of its counterterrorism efforts in multilateral forums.

 

Military Cooperation. The PRC uses bilateral and multilateral exercises to normalise its overseas presence and deepen defence ties. Beginning in 2014, the PRC has markedly increased participation in bilateral and multilateral exercises. Since then, Beijing has held recurring exercises, including the FALCON STRIKE air exercise with Thailand (2015), the MARITIME SECURITY BELT naval exercise with Russia and Iran (2019), and the BLUE SWORD with Saudi Arabia (2019). The PRC had expanded combined exercises with Russia since 2018 when Beijing first participated in Russia’s VOSTOK capstone exercise.

 

Overseas Basing and Access. The PRC seeks to expand its overseas logistics and base infrastructure to allow the PLA to project and sustain military power at greater distances. A global PLA logistics network could disrupt U.S. military operations as the PRC’s global military objectives evolve. Beyond the PLA support base in Djibouti, the PRC is likely already considering and planning additional military logistics facilities to support the projection of naval, air, and ground forces.

 

RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY FOR FORCE MODERNISATION

 

PRC Defence Spending. A survey of multiple models of the PRC’s defence budget estimates that Beijing spends 40% to 90% more than it announces in its public defence budget, which equates to approximately $330 billion–$450 billion in total defence spending for 2024. The consensus among experts is that the PRC’s publicly announced defence spending figure does not contain the entirety of PRC investment in its defence, so alternative approaches are used to assess the total value of this spending.

 

Developments in the Defence Industry. The PRC’s hypersonic missile technologies have significantly advanced during the past 20 years. Many PRC missile programs are comparable to other international top-tier producers. The PRC is the world’s top ship-producing nation by tonnage. It can produce a wide range of naval combatants, gas turbine and diesel engines, and shipboard weapons and electronic systems, making it nearly self-sufficient for all shipbuilding needs.

 

Arms Transfers. The PRC uses foreign suppliers to overcome limitations in its domestic production capabilities, particularly for helicopters and aircraft engines. As its aerospace industry improves over the next decade, the PRC will likely decrease its foreign acquisitions to maintain only an import relationship with foreign suppliers positioned to fill niche gaps in the PRC’s inventory quickly. As of 2023, the PRC is the fourth-largest arms supplier in the world and sells nearly every category of conventional military equipment, including unmanned aerial vehicles, man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), submarines, naval surface vessels, surface-to-air missile systems, fighter aircraft to customers worldwide.

 

SPECIAL TOPICS

 

Impacts of Corruption in the PLA. In 2023, a new wave of corruption-related investigations and removals of senior leaders may have disrupted the PLA’s progress toward stated 2027 modernisation goals. Between July and December 2023, 15 high-ranking military officers and defence industry executives were removed from their posts. Several leaders investigated or removed for corruption oversaw equipment development projects related to modernising China’s ground-based nuclear and conventional missiles. The most prominent removal was that of PRC Minister of National Defence Li Shangfu in late October. Li led the CMC Equipment Development Department from 2017 to 2022, where he would have signed off on all PLA weapons acquisitions.

 

Political Training in the PLA. The political work system and the political training featured within it have been central parts of the PLA since its founding as the party army of the CCP. A key feature of Xi Jinping’s leadership has been strengthening and revitalising political work and training in the PLA to “fight and win” wars and bolster political control over the military. Efforts to revitalise political work derive from Xi’s concerns regarding political loyalty and corruption in the armed forces.

 

PRC Views of Comprehensive National Power. For Beijing, “comprehensive national power” (CNP) represents a country’s overall measure of power actualised across multiple domains that it wields in the international system. More than just military strength, it encompasses a country’s full suite of economic, science and technology, diplomatic, political, cultural, natural, people, and other resources, as well as ideational ethos and international influence. The term dates back to at least the 1960s, but in the 1980s, as the PRC developed the Deng Xiaoping Theory, it adopted CNP to measure China’s overall development. The term CNP remains broadly used by PRC officials, strategists, and theorists. CNP is used as an internal measurement of development and a calibrated reference for competition between inimical governance systems—China’s socialist and the West’s capitalist systems. CNP is inexorably tied to military competition as, for the PRC, confrontation on the battlefield represents not just a contest between two countries’ military systems but a systemic confrontation based on the overall strength of each country.

 

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References and credits

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Summary Courtesy: DoD annual Report to USA Congress.

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Information and data included in the blog are for educational & non-commercial purposes only and have been carefully adapted, excerpted, or edited from reliable and accurate sources. All copyrighted material belongs to respective owners and is provided only for wider dissemination.

 

 

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